Lets assume that you put your transports alone in a small harbour, one preferably stacked with the Skoda 75 AA-gun, who is allowed to shoot even when suprised and aborts two factors on average if 2-3 planes attacks.
There is 10% chance of being rain in the med during impulse 4 but let's disregard that.
It is only 51% chance that CV's will find.
To get 6 Suprise points or more is 31% chance, after AA you would probably have between 5-7 factors. and could possible get an 2X result.
This gives 2% chance of sinking both TRS
4% chance of sinking one and bottoming another
2% chance to bottom both
8% chance to damage one and sink one
8% chance to damage one and bottom the other
8% chance of damaging both
and 69% chance of not doing any harm at all.
Those odds I might be willing to take as the Axis if the wallies will take the USE cost, to help me get italy and the lendlease route open.
Lets assume that you put your transports alone in a small harbour, one preferably stacked with the Skoda 75 AA-gun, who is allowed to shoot even when suprised and aborts two factors on average if 2-3 planes attacks.
There is 10% chance of being rain in the med during impulse 4 but let's disregard that.
It is only 51% chance that CV's will find.
To get 6 Suprise points or more is 31% chance, after AA you would probably have between 5-7 factors. and could possible get an 2X result.
This gives 2% chance of sinking both TRS
4% chance of sinking one and bottoming another
2% chance to bottom both
8% chance to damage one and sink one
8% chance to damage one and bottom the other
8% chance of damaging both
and 69% chance of not doing any harm at all.
Those odds I might be willing to take as the Axis if the wallies will take the USE cost, to help me get italy and the lendlease route open.
I followed most of this (without checking any of the calculations), but you lost me on "lend lease route open". ???
c92nichj, did you count in your calculations that Italy gets 0 surprise points on surprise ?
The CW suprise points is then the search dice of the Italian plus the sea box of his planes. This is high and can get some shifts to cancel AA, choose the 3 first targets and augment the colums.
You're precisely right on the last sentence.
About Italy being involved in the war the sooner the better, I'm not sure I agree, because it also mean it produces "high" the sooner, because Germany lends resources sooner.
But you're right, it's subjective and depends on your experience and you playing partners.
Froonp while i wholeheartedly agree with you, that when germany lends resources to italy, this makes it tougher for you as the CW player, given that it will probably be you, on the allied side, facing these ressources. But this is mainly because of the bidding you have done, you crave as many objectives as possible for, in this case, the CW.
Will the AIO have the same reasoning? or will the JCS not rather be concerned with the amount of objectives for ALL the allied nations, rather than the specific amount of objectives for 1 of the allies. Personally i think that this is the correct aproach to the AIO. Mainly becuase people playing the AIO will probably be playing solo (why else involve the AIO) and therefore make the same type of valuation i.e. best for whole side (axis or allies) as compared to best for specific Major Power.
I take it there will not be a bidding process for the AIO - influencing its decisions on how the Major Powers act throughout the game. I hope im wrong could be a superb feature.............
Froonp while i wholeheartedly agree with you, that when germany lends resources to italy, this makes it tougher for you as the CW player, given that it will probably be you, on the allied side, facing these ressources. But this is mainly because of the bidding you have done, you crave as many objectives as possible for, in this case, the CW.
Will the AIO have the same reasoning? or will the JCS not rather be concerned with the amount of objectives for ALL the allied nations, rather than the specific amount of objectives for 1 of the allies. Personally i think that this is the correct aproach to the AIO. Mainly becuase people playing the AIO will probably be playing solo (why else involve the AIO) and therefore make the same type of valuation i.e. best for whole side (axis or allies) as compared to best for specific Major Power.
I take it there will not be a bidding process for the AIO - influencing its decisions on how the Major Powers act throughout the game. I hope im wrong could be a superb feature.............
A unified approach but solved by individual countries negotiating from their own point of view. Each country makes their own decision (tentatively) then their Foreign Liaisons reach a unanimous compromise. This happens thoroughout the game at all the points of interaction between allies.
Excellent - excellent. Will it be possible, in the game setup, to influence this foreign liason unanimous compromise, e.g. by setting a high bid for italy and a comparatively lower for Germany. That is force the AIO to have a favored Major Power.
Only 1 more object on my AIO wishlist[;)]
Next thing is youll tell me its a neural network adapting to the human opponents style of play[&o]
Excellent - excellent. Will it be possible, in the game setup, to influence this foreign liason unanimous compromise, e.g. by setting a high bid for italy and a comparatively lower for Germany. That is force the AIO to have a favored Major Power.
Only 1 more object on my AIO wishlist[;)]
Next thing is youll tell me its a neural network adapting to the human opponents style of play[&o]
Cant wait to try this sucker out !!!!!!!!!!!!
For now I plan on giving the player no control over the AI Opponent. (Oh! Maybe different levels of difficulty.) In particular, no bidding by the AIO. It strikes me as too much about gamesmanship and less about the simulation of the war. Probably some control over an AI Assistant though.
All neural networks are to be provided by the human player.
c92nichj, did you count in your calculations that Italy gets 0 surprise points on surprise ?
The CW suprise points is then the search dice of the Italian plus the sea box of his planes. This is high and can get some shifts to cancel AA, choose the 3 first targets and augment the colums.
I did calculate with 0 Suprise points for Italy, that's why it is important to be in a minor port as you are less likely to find with the italians.
6 suprise points or more will be generated on a CW roll of 1-3 and a Italian roll between 3-10 or a CW roll between 4-10 and an italian roll of 3, this assumes that the British CV's lie in the 3 box and utilise the CVP's with poor range and good NAV value. You will also only have the two transports in the minor port which makes it a small target, you could potentially split them between two minor ports giving you a smaller risk of losing both transports, but increased risk to lose one.
Shifting down coumns for AA will probably have about the same effect as shifting up columns for damage so i didn't calculate specifically for it, to be 100% sure to sink both Transport you would need to be in the NAV 36-42 column at for that you would need a lot of suprise points.
c92nichj I think you may have your port attack rule wrong, as there is no finding per see in Port Attacks.
Each side rolls dice, and each side gain surprise points equal to its modified sea box number + the enemy roll.
The total surprise is the substraction of the sides's surprise points.
So the Italian side surprise points being 0 for a surprise impulse, the British roll and the Italian sea box (size of the port) is not relevant.
So the British surprise is equal to the Italian search roll plus the British modified sea box. If the British are in section 4 of the sea, they have (5 + 1d10) - (0) surprise points. From 6 to 15.
About the seach rolls, on a non surprise impulse Port Attack from Section 4 on a Major Port, if both sides rolled a 10, there would be (5 + 10) - (5 + 10) surprise point, that is 0 surprise points, that is the port attack would be conducted normaly. I mean that a search roll of 10 does not mean you "do not find" the enemy for a Port Attack. It's only a parameter of the Surprise points calculation.
In other words, Port Attacks are always successful unless the attacked party has 4 surprise points to negate the combat. So basing into a Major Port is always a good thing in regards to this because it requires the enemy fleet to be in the 4 section to only equal your search number.
There were some AAR's I remember reading about in the ADG WiF annuals that mention some CW forces being sent to Murmansk to free up Soviet units from defensive garrison duty to operate against the Germans on the eastern front. Do you think this strategy should be included in the CW AI?
As for sending troops up to garrison Murmansk - I don't think it's all that great an idea. You have to send an HQ along to do it, which is a tremendous waste of an HQ; the units the USSR will have freed up are usually rubbish anyway; and at the MWiF map scale it is very difficult for the Soviets to keep the rail lines from getting severed but it is equally difficult for the Axis to keep them that way. Plus then you're throwing an HQ and other forces off to some theatre where they're totally out of the way and not presenting a tangible threat to German or Italian interests closer to home. If you're not going to have them on the front lines somewhere then at least keep them in England near AMPHs so you can force the Germans to divert troops away from Russia, which is probably better, given the quality of German forces, than freeing up craptacular 3 combat factor Soviet infantry armies to get ground into dogmeat by Wehrmacht armoured corps.
I agree that a CW garrisoned Murmansk isn't as useful as the annuals imply, but it should still be a minor option for the AIO to consider even if for no other reason than to keep MWiF fresh over multiple plays.
I just want to say that, I prefer to try to threaten Italy and achieve a better offensive position in the Med, rather than do raid invasion in western Europe or Denmark or the Netherlands, because these places in 41-42 lead nowhere.
Oh I agree completely...especially about threating Italy...if the axis then garison it you hit somewhere else...personally I LOVE invading Greece esp. if you can get ashore just next to the Turkey border to put ZOC on the rail line from Turkey (and its resource) and have a chance at grabbing the resource in Bulgaria....sure its crap terrority and leads nowhere, but the allies have more crap units than the axis and its all about tying down more and more axis units until you are strong enough to go in for REAL. - and Denmark is not completely useless...Even Copenhagen aside, just possesing Frederikshavn will enable the allies to project power into the Baltic to fight the GE steel convoys from Sweeden (only if Leningrad is still in the hands of the USSR) and will also make it a lot easier to grab Norway in a quick and efficient manner...and if you have both of the minor ports in Norway/DK with access to the Baltic you DO have a real threat of invasion (although you then have to burn a supplypoint once per turn to be in supply!)
Basically I think that if USSR is in trouble CW has to invade somewhere GE simply cant ignore it like IT or France/Netherlands...but if USSR is doing somewhat OK its much better to attack the perimeter and go for small offensives from where you can finish them of and move on (generally speaking cleaning out N. Afrika, Sicily, Sardinia etc.) with the troops so you continously roll forward gaining more bases so at to improve your future offensive capability, instead of locking yourself down in a stalemate with the axis in France....(since GE has to garrison those places anyway!)
On this note, the CW needs to differentiate between Tactical and Strategic invasions. A good tactical invasion example that is often pointed out is onto a non or poorly garrisioned sub base in France. You go in, do your damage, then leave before you are blitzed off. The intent is usually not to stay ashore, but if you are burning subs and planes or threaten something worse, German will HAVE to respond with something. The USSR would really have to be on the ropes before a Strategic invasion should be contemplated. There is too much risk of giving the German free troop training if conducted too soon. Tactical operations on the other hand are always an option.
On this note, the CW needs to differentiate between Tactical and Strategic invasions. A good tactical invasion example that is often pointed out is onto a non or poorly garrisioned sub base in France. You go in, do your damage, then leave before you are blitzed off. The intent is usually not to stay ashore, but if you are burning subs and planes or threaten something worse, German will HAVE to respond with something. The USSR would really have to be on the ropes before a Strategic invasion should be contemplated. There is too much risk of giving the German free troop training if conducted too soon. Tactical operations on the other hand are always an option.
dhatchen is right.
So the AI needs to take this into consideration, and use her naval assets (TRS / AMPH) to invade, and then reorganize (if necessary) and take the troops back to safety.
On this note, the CW needs to differentiate between Tactical and Strategic invasions. A good tactical invasion example that is often pointed out is onto a non or poorly garrisioned sub base in France. You go in, do your damage, then leave before you are blitzed off. The intent is usually not to stay ashore, but if you are burning subs and planes or threaten something worse, German will HAVE to respond with something. The USSR would really have to be on the ropes before a Strategic invasion should be contemplated. There is too much risk of giving the German free troop training if conducted too soon. Tactical operations on the other hand are always an option.
dhatchen is right.
So the AI needs to take this into consideration, and use her naval assets (TRS / AMPH) to invade, and then reorganize (if necessary) and take the troops back to safety.
hmmmm, the CW AIO could most likely be the most challenging of them all.
first I'll tangent back to Italian respones to the CW threatening a large port strike early. I think the first two and probably three turns I would just take the punishment and reap the US Entry rewards later on in the game. USE Chits in 39 are high-stakes. Results could be spread all over the place by the single die roll by the Italians that determines the surprise points for the CW. With Ships in Flames TRS defense factors of '5' I think the most likely result is you lose one TRS and damage one, with decent chances of an outcome better than that, and a slight chance of two complete 'X'. Before set-up, stroll over to visit Vatican City and pray you draw the AA gun to start in Italy. If you draw it for Libya, maybe ship it home the first impulse. Mass the fleet and the AA. Scatter the CPs all over Italy. I have never analyzyed if two stacks in Genoa and La Spezia are better than one, I fly by the seat of my pants. Maybe. Start a few units in Libya, especially the MOT corps, start building some new lift, reinforce until then with the Mountain Div. Fight back from the two box with the '6' range FTR and any Me-110 or Heinkel FTRs the Germans might have available and watch the CW CVs start looking rather naked without their stringbag planes on top. Or re-base and fight back in the North Sea, there is probably some weakly defended Allied lift up there that is face-down and can't abort until after a round of combat; the Germans have a NAV too. In 1940 you want to be in the war anyway so you can easily avoid the surprise and join the active Major Powers; in the summer the French army will be so frantic it will be much tougher for their navy to come out to see you. I don't think using the CW DoW to catch the TRS is a slam-dunk decision.
cBoehm's ideas on production priorities are good. Another way to look at them are through the gearing limits. CW ship gearing should never slip too low in the first third of the game. Things the CW AIO needs to learn about naval production include deciding on priorities of repairing (keep all the London class CA on the board all the time works for me) vs. new construction. Ask the US State Deparment when they can hurry up and give up the WWI destroyers already.
Probably the CW can use all the BBs and CV that will be arriving into the Construction Pool. If they have these new ones on the way they can use the existing ones more aggresively.
A last naval construction decision is whether to build the Implacable and Indefatigable CVs; the new CV in 42 (forget laying down ships in 43) is blue-class for carrier planes and is a little trickier to use with the CW CVplane force pool in my opinion. So you have to lay down the '39 green class ones by 41 at the latest. The Im.. and In.. CVs turn out to be an amazingly prescient build if the US loses the battle of Midway, in other games they appear just as the Med has been decided and in the Pacific they might just be piling on vs. the harried Japanese anyway. I build them in some games, some games not. You probably won't need the Unicorn CVL's at all, ditto the Lion BBs.
Learning to manage the CW carrier planes is a challenge even without 3 GHz of asisstance. It helps to get a given year's all built before N/D rolls around and a bunch of new ones appear in your pool that the existing CW CV fleet can't use for two more years.
For me, there is one unit for the CW with a higher priority than HQs : the FTR-3's. Leave the Whirlwind in the Reserve Pool permanently and rebuild the Beauforts and Mosquitoes as many times as needed until Italy is defeated.
On land I prefer to think cheap for a long time. You have a lot of stuff to defend. Build out the MIL, GAR, and INF, maybe some new TERRitorials too. It's no fun to have Gandhi embarass your intricate build plan for next turn, or your already inadequate loan to Russia. And he can be a challenge to dig out of Calcutta. Inf gearing is nearly important as Ship gearing for a while. And if you lose all the BEF's Matildas in north-west France, will you have some replacements in time to use in Kent?
After Winston chews up several cigars on the phone with the Defense Allocation Board on the above issues, he has these advisers who want AMPH, PARA, and MARines. All great fun, especially after two years of getting pounded on by the Axis. But Mussolini already got his trains running on time, and that is who will show up to bottle up these strategic pinprick attacks. (The European Axis are on interior lines). [The Germans will happily trade you Frederikshavn for Leningrad; well, maybe not happily but still ahead.] Then on the horizon are the Japanese, hungry for more of your resources to feed their factories. Buh-bye Food in Flames bonuses, it sure would be nice to have the Formidable, the Victorious and the King George V to deal with the rampaging Hiryu and Soryu. You sank Il Duce's lift back on the first turn, (helping Willikie defeat Roosevelt), so Benito can't ship his units overseas to your prison camps and the OKH assigned him to run the Sub War and wait and see what you do, so Russia is off-limits to his army. (The Italian action limits are on interior lines). When the Germans have a kitchen-sink Barbarossa going on an extra 20 CP might be a little more valuable; they are also valuable to invest in the future of the Free French economy. I like the offensive units too, but all things in moderation. AMPH's won't help you hold the Malaga-Cadiz line in front of the Rock, but FORTs would. And if you can't use them there, they seriously annoy the Japanese.
Given RaW Vichy 17. rules, you can also profit via loans to France for the big Paris am Götterdamerung battle. Let the disposable light blue units take some grey ones down with them, and hopefully at a minimum one of the white pieces that says "Offensive Chit" on it. Stalin will be watching. The January 1940 Paris Air Show rolled out some nice designs, as did the Artillery show next door, but you can't get many of those goodies without wiping out carefully planned French Infantry gearing, or a timely British 'loan.'
Later on in the war, British production is still challenging. Gearing must be managed carefully, especially if they want an O-Chit for themselves.
On a different note, a critical task for the Admiralty AI is to learn how to shift the convoy line from the Bay of Biscay to the Faeroes Gap without disrupting production, using Alexander, the C-47, maybe an Anson, or some TRS covered by BBs in the North Sea, just when the French CPs leave the equation, and again without doing serious damage to your gearing limits. This can be a handy skill when serious Wolf-Packs appear in the North Atlantic zone; you can regroup and take the Canadian Coast / Denmark Strait polar circle route around them in a pinch.
Early Allied strategy should be easier early-on compared to middle and later. The deeper you go in to a game of WiF, the more the Allies have to run operations across multiple impulses and multiple Major Powers, at least in the west. In the east, well, the Arctic zone can suddenly become a tricky place to fight a war when the storm clouds roll in just after the mass clouds of Sturmoviks return to their bases.
I think much more needs to be made of CW plans in case of an Axis occupation of Gibralter. Even if you make a maximum commitment to keeping it the Axis can make a strong attempt to take it, and may succeed. The CW needs contingencies for that, as well as for Suez being occupied. Unless the bids were unbalanced, the Allies can't afford to lose both, so that case can probably be ignored.
"The creative combination lays bare the presumption of a lie." -- Lasker
Seems to me the CW needs the following priorities:
1. Defend Albion.
2. Air Superiority over Albion and Channel.
3. Defend convoys.
4. Defend Gibraltar.
5. Defend Suez.
6. Defend Singapore (if possible).
7. Build Strat bombers.
8. Prep to cooperate with USA on invasions:
A) Sicily of possible
B) Italian mainland
C) France or Denmark
1. Defend Albion.
2. Air Superiority over Albion and Channel.
3. Defend convoys.
4. Defend Gibraltar.
5. Defend Suez.
6. Defend Singapore (if possible).
7. Build Strat bombers.
8. Prep to cooperate with USA on invasions:
A) Sicily of possible
B) Italian mainland
C) France or Denmark
Britain can't really guarantee air superiority over the Channel since it is part of the North Sea sea zone, at least not until 1942-43 at the earliest depending on the situation in the Med - I've seen the Axis seriously contesting the Med, the Bay of Biscay, and the North Sea as late as 1944. The AI goal for the CW should be to either picket the North Sea with cheap cruisers (the Danes, anyone?) if they have a good defence set up against German surface raiders (or you're playing with "In the Presence of the Enemy") or to have a light carrier & group of slow battleships there to bottle up the High Seas fleet if they don't.
Also, Denmark is not a good place for a strategic invasion to get back onto Europe to win the game. The Germans can bottleneck you to one hex, and if they have two armour & an anti-tank gun, which by 44 they should seriously consider, then you're probably not getting through without blowing an o-chit and throwing in maximum shore bombardment & offensive ground support. And if the Germans get any defensive ground support through, it makes a questionable attack worse. France is always, every time, the best place for the Allies to invade in 1943-44 if the point of the exercise is to get ashore for good and begin the race to get to Berlin before Russia.
Also, Denmark is not a good place for a strategic invasion to get back onto Europe to win the game. The Germans can bottleneck you to one hex, and if they have two armour & an anti-tank gun, which by 44 they should seriously consider, then you're probably not getting through without blowing an o-chit and throwing in maximum shore bombardment & offensive ground support. And if the Germans get any defensive ground support through, it makes a questionable attack worse. France is always, every time, the best place for the Allies to invade in 1943-44 if the point of the exercise is to get ashore for good and begin the race to get to Berlin before Russia.
I'd add that, even if this is true that Denmark is not a good place for a strategic invasion to get back onto Europe to win the game, and it is also true that France is a better place, being in Denmark is also quite good, both to have air support closer to the Germans, and to open up the Baltic to either invasion, raiding, or simply, threat of invasion.
Also, Denmark is often a place where you can go (as the allies) while you're not strong enough to go anywhere else. This said, even if the Danish adventure is successful for the Allies, they should not become engulfed in it too much, to the point of wasting troops for the real invasion in Europe, that is in France.
ORIGINAL: Froonp
I'd add that, even if this is true that Denmark is not a good place for a strategic invasion to get back onto Europe to win the game, and it is also true that France is a better place, being in Denmark is also quite good, both to have air support closer to the Germans, and to open up the Baltic to either invasion, raiding, or simply, threat of invasion.
Also, Denmark is often a place where you can go (as the allies) while you're not strong enough to go anywhere else. This said, even if the Danish adventure is successful for the Allies, they should not become engulfed in it too much, to the point of wasting troops for the real invasion in Europe, that is in France.
You are quite right: Pretty sweet airbase, Denmark is.
