The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

6/7/44

Fun House: Much going on in the Philippines AOO. Allied army will arrive at Batangas tomorrow. Will enemy army move out first? (No movement dot, but that's not always reliable.)

I think John might try a massed air raid on my troops when they reach Batangas. That hex is too far from my airfields to allow for effective LRCAP. But I'm working on a notion.

[Canoerebel]

6/8/44

Fun House: Allied attack at Batangas tomorrow - a critical event for the Luzon campaign. Is John prepared? I look for massed waves of enemy bombers. But Mini KB is down near Timor, a stout combat TF is in the Makassar Strait, and KB not be close by either.

Burma: Allied attack near Rahaeng comes off at 1:2 but big cracks showing in the enemy defenses.

[Canoerebel]

OOB for the Allied army attacking tomorrow.

[AcePylut]

I can't seem to find the base "redacted" on the map.... would you care to show me on the strategic map, where this base is located? [:D]

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I can't seem to find the base "redacted" on the map.... would you care to show me on the strategic map, where this base is located? [:D]

50 klicks NE of Shangri-La. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Redacted is the primary target of Peep Show. [X(]

Oz fuel stores up to 401k. That's a net gain over the past several weeks, which is noteworthy because a number of AO/TK TFs have recently filled up with oil. The logistics network is operating smoothly at the moment.

The Battle of Batangas is huge. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do know this: It's lovely ground for an attack.

[Lowpe]

I love all the mystery with redacted and such! Keep it up.

Hard to see how Japan thinks they can fight in open terrain. Maybe with 40 units there, 15 of them heavy AA & the tank divisions and the ability to cycle in and out spent units.

Have you seen the tank divisions recently?

[Canoerebel]

2nd Tank Division is in Indochina on the Chinese border. A bunch of tank regiments just got chewed up in Burma. I don't know where 1st Tank Division or the other major tank units are.

I don't think John currently has any AA at Batangas or at Manila. But he has some in Thailand and at his major oil producing bases.

[Canoerebel]

6/9/44

Battle of Batangas: Opening Allied deliberate attack comes in at a high-end 1:1, drops forts to 2, and inflicts greater casualties on the Japanese army. Combat sequence showed four enemy divisions of less than 300 AV, suggesting they'd been beaten up a bit during the bombing campaign (no bombers flew today due to weather, darn it).

John is in big trouble here unless his army withdraws to Manila before tomorrow's attack. Eventually my bombers will fly again and now I have a level 2 airfield nearby, so that I am better able to LRCAP my own guys.

John's army is beat up and it doesn't look like he has reinforcements nearby (Manila only has 17k troops; none of his other bases has more than that). I have another 1,000 AV (two divisions and a RCT) a hex to the south. Having just arrived, they are standing down from Strat Mode and will need nearly a week to make it to the front. One of these is a strong and experienced Australian division.

If the Japanese are thrown from the hex with high losses...what will John do?

In about three weeks, I'll be ready to land in strength on the north side of Luzon, unless circumstances persuade me that a different plan is preferable.

Fun House: Death Star and the Herd are ready to invade Miri tomorrow. I lost an LST to a sub today, but other than that it was uneventful down that way. I can't imagine John sitting still while threatened with the loss of Miri and his Luzon army. Where is KB? Where is the Kaigun? Imagine what the Japanese would have done in the real war. John's smarter than that and loves his navy more than the "honor" of the Empire...but will he actually fiddle why Luzon burns?

I don't think he will. I think he's thought this through. If so, tomorrow would be a day for him to strike.

Pacific and Vicinity: Lots of Allied carriers, combat ships, troop transports, and merchantmen at sea. This will be clarified in a day or two, as several big groups are nearing enemy waters.

Burma: Allied army west of Rahaeng drew supply and will attack tomorrow. Allied bombers work over Rahaeng and Pisanoluke airfields each day (they fly every day while the Philippine air force is shut down by weather every day, darn it).

[Lowpe]

I blew your map up to 240% and don't see a movement dot out of Batangas. IF that is true, you have lots of options.

What kind of tanks are you fielding there? Are there no Japanese artillery units there either?

[Lokasenna]

Don't need to blow it up. Can confirm - there's no movement dot there. If you have DL 9/10 on the base, you would see one if it were there.

[Canoerebel]

No movement dots where there should be movement dots. No Japanese artillery, armor, anti-tank weapons or AA where there should be. And the Japanese are standing in open terrain.

"Madness."

[paullus99]

I'm very confused by John standing & fighting here - better to suck you into Manila & rely on the urban terrain and forts to bleed you.

He's about to lose any hope of holding Luzon...and I don't understand why.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

He is basically throwing away 4 Divisions.

[Canoerebel]

Unless John has out-thought me so that I'm about to learn something new and unpleasant, I see it the same way you guys do.

He could be pulling back - if he vacates tomorrow, he'll still be in relatively good shape. That'll deflate my balloon of delighted surprise and wonder.

It's also possible that he froze in his thinking - overwhelmed by the strength of the Allied air force but unable to bring himself to give me a free advance into Manila.

Speaking of which, Manila is urban light, which is 2x. So, speaking only from a defensive multiplier standpoint, it's the same as attacking in jungle or rough terrain? (The jungle-rough combination is 3x, though.) So, from a defensive multiplier standpoint, attacking John in Manila is similar to attacking him in Rahaeng or Palembang (swamp) or Nanning from a defensive multiplier standpoint.

[witpqs]

Could it be that he just held in that position a few days too long without realizing it? Moving when under near daily air attack is usually a much slower affair, first for flipping to combat mode when relevant, and the increased disruption is a huge factor. He might have had the troops moving in combat mode to stave off unnecessary casualties, making your attack more successful without showing any mode(-) penalties.

[Canoerebel]

John's seen this coming for a week or ten days. My army had to advance up the peninsula. And surely veterans are speaking up in his AAR. Yet he's acting like this took him by surprise. If he had planned an elaborate bushwhack, he'd be flipping turns. He isn't. If he'd seen this unfolding belatedly, he'd be reacting energetically to extract his army...and he'd be flipping turns hoping his guys would escape in time. But he isn't. Instead he's acting disinterested...disengaged...uninvolved.

If he truly was surprised (I don't see how that can be) then we'll know soon. He'll react strongly, committing his air force and possibly combat ships to buy time.

...and, when all is said and done, perhaps his army waltzes right out of Batangas today, so that I've been flappin' my gums in vain.

[Lowpe]

Mostly we talk about which 6" hoagies are on sale today at Subway. [8|]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mostly we talk about which 6" hoagies are on sale today at Subway. [8|]

And...???

[Canoerebel]

My army won't attack at Batangas tomorrow. All of the infantry and some of the other units are short on supply. A few tank units will attack and some of the others will bombard.

Further south, D-Day at Miri will be the day after tomorrow. My TFs will take an unusual course and move a few hexes north (west, true) of the base. I typically hug the coast in shallow water, so John may expect similar conduct this turn. This allows me to keep my TFs tight rather than having them sprint to the beaches.