Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

I can't believe what I'm seeing on the map for the April 12, 1942 turn. A large enemy TF is boldly steaming into Indian country bound for Port Blair. I cannot believe Japan would risk major assets on a risky mission in territory not controlled.

I don't think Steve knows where my carriers are (they were last employed near Timor six weeks ago). Has he somehow miscalculated they are somewhere other than this theater?

He knows I have battleships in theater, hence it makes sense that he is bringing heavy combat ship escorts. He knows that Port Blair is a level one airfield, so he's not worried about Allied LBA. And he probably is counting on very long-range LRCAP to handle his CAP needs....but how has he dismissed the Allied carriers?

Allied patrols report what is almost certainly most of the KB north of Borneo; other IJ carriers are known active in the Kuriles. It is possible that he has some carriers escorting this invasion force, though I haven't caught a whiff of them. And I doubt he would risk a few carriers here when he would have to assume the Allies could have as many as four to six carriers (USN and RN).

The Allies will, of course, send all carriers to intercept. I may have missed something, or Steve may have orchestrated a masterful ambush, but from all appearances this has the makings of an important opportunity for the Allies to strike hard.

The Sabang invasion may have led directly to this situation. If the enemy still held Sabang and had long-range patrols operating from the base, the situation would be very, very different.

[GreyJoy]

I've been following with interest this game CR...I really think your opponent is digging his own grave...mistake after mistake...and this one seems just the biggest of a long serie started with those lone CVLs travels in SRA that costed him all those valuable CVL/CVEs assets.

If this goes well too...i think you simply have won this match, hands down

Kudos!!

[paullus99]

You have an opportunity here to trap & destroy that entire force, based on where your carriers are coming from - he's steaming into hostile waters with little or no air support. Don't get cold feet - you might be able to end the war right here.

If you are able to either sink or severely disable his escorts (BBs & CAs) there is no way he'll be able to stage a successful amphibious operation in the face of your CDs on Sumatra. This is the time to throw caution to the wind & end him.

[Canoerebel]

I agree. Looking at it from a best case scenario standpoint for just a moment (bear in mind this is just one analysis - I'm also considering others including worst case scenarios, so I'm not already counting chickens and making assumptions), Japan could be making the biggest mistake of the war.

The Allies may be able to put four carriers between the enemy invasion force and friendly ports. If that happens, the only thing that will save the Japanese force from anihilation will be lack of mission sorties on the part of Allied strike aircraft.

I do have to worry about Japanese LBA from Kota Bharu and other Malayan bases, but I'm willing to take some chances here as this is a critical opportunity - a major blow might seriously hurt Steve's ability to effectively invade Sumatra, might keep Port Blair in Allied hands, and might allow the Allies to invade Burma in a few weeks.

[SqzMyLemon]

The JFB inside of me is simply cringing.

If Port Blair is only a level one airfield why invade? I believe Sabang is a level three airbase and he'd be able to interdict your movements much more effectively from there than Port Blair. Unless he suspects your move on either Malaya and Burma, that would be the only reason I see him trying to occupy Port Blair.

I'd be wary of KB trailing at some point. Could they be at Singapore right now CR? If so...perhaps he plans on sending them at full speed to support the invasion TF and just didn't want to show his carriers yet.

My spidey sense tells me KB is not going to be in a position to interdict and your carriers are going to have a field day. Sigh...[:D]

[Q-Ball]

Are there known Betty bases on the Malayan coast? That is the only threat really as you point out, but even then, not so much. You can set most of your fighters to CAP.

If you don't know where the other guy's carriers are, you have to operate as if they are there at all times. If you are using units you can afford to lose like AKs or something, no big deal, but using BBs or CAs.....the IJN can't afford that.

Port Blair is useful, but it's not worth that kind of roll of the dice.

[Canoerebel]

Here's why I don't think the KB can be involved in the Japanese move into the Bay of Bengal. The KB, or a goodly part of it, was sighted off Borneo's northern tip, consistent with the patrol reports from yesterday (see map posted yesterday). Also, enemy carrier strikes involving 54 Kates took place in the Kuriles a week ago.

I have seen reports of enemy carriers around Singapore within the past week, but all reports showed just 10 aux. aircraft. I think this was probably a CS.

Allied patrol aircraft are operating out of Port Blair, Padang, Palembang and other ports. so a major enemy carrier presence almost certainly would have been detected.

This is one of those situations where you fret over worst case scenarios, miscalculation, or clever enemy ambush, but it's also one of those sitatuions where you act on the best available information and strike.

[Cribtop]

Cough -- that Cribtop fellow was right -- Cough. [shuffles off stage right] [:D]

Let the pounding commence!

[paullus99]

That would pretty much confirm one carrier division in the Kuriles (2 Carriers) & two carrier divisions (4 Carriers) north of Borneo. Since he lost all his CVLs, he hasn't much, if anything that is undetected at this point that could interfere.

His strategic focus has definitely been distracted - his operations in the SW Pacific don't make a lot of sense unless he was committing full bore, but dispersing his carriers as he had, there isn't any sort of focus right now. I have a feeling that he is underestimating your forces and is about to pay dearly for that again.

The destruction of the mini-KB should have been a wake-up call, but I think he hit the snooze button.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Cough -- that Cribtop fellow was right -- Cough. [shuffles off stage right] [:D]

Let the pounding commence!

In this case I don't mind being wrong. [:D] Let the fireworks begin and I echo Paullus's comments, this is a golden opportunity to finish your opponent's hopes and aspirations. Too many lessons not learnt. Good luck CR, but I don't think you will have much to worry about.

[Canoerebel]

After further thought, I can come up with only one way in which this operation would make sense.
 
Steve might make a large sacrifice of ships to draw the Allied carriers out of position, also reducing missions sorties so that the ships have to retire to Ceylon, in order to give him a chance to invade Sumatra on better terms.
 
That would be a pretty good sacrifice on his part, but I doubt that's what's happening.  The Japanese TFs are too strong, and the the carriers are a bit out of position, to make it work that way.  He'd want to immediately move on Sumatra at the same time the Allied carriers were out of position.
 
So the Allies will commit the carriers.  It will probably be two more turns before they are in position to strike.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The JFB inside of me is simply cringing.

If Port Blair is only a level one airfield why invade? I believe Sabang is a level three airbase and he'd be able to interdict your movements much more effectively from there than Port Blair. Unless he suspects your move on either Malaya and Burma, that would be the only reason I see him trying to occupy Port Blair.

I'd be wary of KB trailing at some point. Could they be at Singapore right now CR? If so...perhaps he plans on sending them at full speed to support the invasion TF and just didn't want to show his carriers yet.

My spidey sense tells me KB is not going to be in a position to interdict and your carriers are going to have a field day. Sigh...[:D]

Agreed. Quite simply Port Blair has no value at all if you hold Sabang- a base that can be built up to level 9. If the Allies hold Sabang then Port Blair can't be supplied over the long term.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

After further thought, I can come up with only one way in which this operation would make sense.

Steve might make a large sacrifice of ships to draw the Allied carriers out of position, also reducing missions sorties so that the ships have to retire to Ceylon, in order to give him a chance to invade Sumatra on better terms.

That would be a pretty good sacrifice on his part, but I doubt that's what's happening.  The Japanese TFs are too strong, and the the carriers are a bit out of position, to make it work that way.  He'd want to immediately move on Sumatra at the same time the Allied carriers were out of position.

I think you are intentionally trying to soften the coming blow by trying to justify the whooping you are about to lay on your opponent as some kind of worthy diversion on his part. [;)] This Port Blair operation is folly...plain and simple. If KB is indeed where you've indicated it is, it might as well be in the Atlantic for all the impact it's going to have. He's going to lose much of his battlefleet while his carriers are covering at best an invasion of Eastern Java. A needless sacrifice.

If a masterful diversion...to what end? I doubt he'll be landing at Oosthaven anytime soon. I'm guessing he's supporting a Java operation as anything else does nothing to further his cause.

Oops, I just noticed the carriers were reported moving N.W. so that probably rules out any Java operation. If they are heading towards Sumatra they'll be late to the party.

[Nemo121]

When we disrupt an opponent's OODA cycle the result is that they make decisions based on what the situation USED to be. Those decisions and the actions which follow them are inappropriate to the actual situation as we know it to be, but they appear appropriate to the addled opponent.

It isn't a diversion, it is what it is.... an inappropriate move due to your opponent's loss of at least one cycle.



As to Burma...
You are focusing on territory. The narrative and disruption to his OODA cycle is going to win you cheap victories such as what is going to happen at Port Blair. Narratives are all about mixing action ( or the appearance of action ) with the right timing/phasing in order to tell the story you wish your opponent to hear - ideally that story disrupts the Orient portion of the cycle - and lead your opponent into inappropriate decisions and actions based on an incorrect orientation.

Taking Burma is simple and very direct. It also, IMO, invites a simple counter-punch - an IJA landing behind your troops to cut them off from the sea while the inland army holds its positions and you, de facto, find yourself encircled.

However, landing in Malaysia a week after your opponent has finally shown his hand in Java/Sumatra at a time when Singapore has been largely emptied of troops.... Well, that requires a significant re-apportioning of troops, opportunities for order, counter-order and disorder etc. The key of course is fitting that into the narrative and phasing it. I've pointed out, previously, the benefits of mounting an operation just after one of your opponent's operations has run into trouble and his reserve has been committed.... Malaysia makes sense at THAT time, and not at any other.

If you can judge that time properly Malaysia would be a devastating blow. If you aren't sure if you can then Burma is still useful, albeit very direct and not really playing the OODA game. It is just very positional and attritional. With that said people still win the game by 1944 with positional and attritional approaches. They don't, however, win the game in 1942 with such approaches. Part of this is style as well. I'd rather lose a game while trying to do something skillful or difficult than win it with simple attritional play anyone could do. Obviously in a real war or with real money I'd play to win no matter the artfulness of it. But the lack of repercussions in the game allows for an emphasis on the art of strategic and operational art as opposed to merely grinding out a win in the long run.

[Canoerebel]

4/11/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  The three enemy TFs making for the Bay of Bengal are either an invasion force or possibly bombardment of combat TFs.  Cursor recon of the three TFs shows only combat ships, so it's possible Steve is up to something else.  It's also possible the Allied carriers could blunder into the enemy combat TFs, should they juke west, or that the carriers will have a hard time closing on them if they bombard Port Blair and quickly retire.  So I have to take caution in issuing orders tomorrow - get my carriers close enough to strike the day after tomorrow, but not too close to enemy fields at Alor Star, Georgetown, etc.  I'm close to choosing a hex west of the Nicobars and 13 hexes from Victoria Point, which has a level four airfield.  Anything - including pretty much nothing - may happen tomorrow or the next day, but if the enemy is planning to invade Port Blair, a big battle will take place in two days.
 
Sumatra/Java:  I've moved the B-17s back to Palembang so that they will be in position to hit something over the next few days.  In particular, an enemy TF is moving on Denpassar - probably reinforcements or supply.  An Allied CA/DD TF will sortie from Soerabaja on an intercept mission.  The plan is to do an airfield raid with B-17s, LRCAP the ships, and strike the enemy shipping.  At the moment there doesn't appear to be a direct threat to Java or eastern Sumatra, especially with the KB or part of it north of Borneo.
 
China:  The Allied army withdrawing from Kukong seems to be making good time.  I think all or most of the units will vacate the hex to the north before the enemy arrives.  At that point, the troops will be much closer to the AVG LRCAP that can fly from Hengyang.  An Allied army has arrived at Loyang, defended by just one unit.  They will deliberate attack tomorrow on the basis that even an enemy division should be vulnerable to an attack by 2,100 AV.  Another Chinese army is closing on the adjacent base (Chengchow) defended by two units, one of which is a mixed brigade.  Steve has suddenly drawn down his Changsha army, diverting a division to the east, probably in reaction to the sudden Chinese advance toward Loyang. 
 
SoPac:  The enemy invasion of Pago Pago doesn't seem to be going very well.  The shore guns tore up three more xAP (bringing the total likely sunk to five).  68 squads, mostly non combat, were destroyed today, bringing the total thus far to 108.  That most are non combat suggests the Japanese got most combat troops ashore yestreday, but are having trouble getting support squads, guns and vehicles ashore.  Indeed, some 17 guns were destroyed, and the enemy AV is about the same today as yesterday - 250.  The Allies have 137 AV behind three forts.  The troops are in great shape and well supplied, so the Japanese may have to bring reinforcements.
 
NoPac:  No counterinvasion of Onnekotan Jima.  All the IJN ships have withdrawn.  I'm not sure what the enemy is doing here at the moment, but I'm glad for the reprieve.  A USN TF with two BBs is steaming in circles well to the NE if needed. 

[paullus99]

Well, you know where he has to go to get home, so if you can arrange it to "cover the exits" as well, you'll be in good shape regardless of where he goes.

[njp72]

Watching from the sidelines pretty amazing stuff.

Yes his decision cycle has been thrown out of the window and it appears to be a crazy attempt to regain momentum.

Great to see you have your carriers poised for that killer blow.

I am currently reading some civil war literature, it looks like a Pickett's charge moment from clearly a previously capable opponent. His blood is up and after so many stinging defeats he either has become fatalistic or failing to understand the enemy's COA options.

(Now I know you will hate this as a Southerner), but post this massacre as Meade I hope we are not going to sit on the hill and let him regain his balance.

No mercy now Dan, who knows a subsequent invasion at the right location may see KB come rushing in and impale itself on Allied LBA.

well played

[Canoerebel]

Okay, orders have been issued and I should get the turn back in about eight hours.  Major decisions:
 
1.  The three Allied carriers and one CVL are to meet at a point southwest (true map) of Sabang.  This will put the carriers in position to cut off the enemy TF's path of retreat should they be heading to Port Blair.  If, however, this is an enemy raid around the tip of Sumatra to threat the island from the south, my ships are going to be uncomfortably close to the enemy ships.  I'll be sweating this possibility...
 
2.  Three Allied CA and BB/CA TFs are steaming into the area, including a good CA force that was on patrol west of the Andamas, the Ramilles group that was retiring to Colombo after the recent skirmish with three IJN DDs (this is too important to miss), and a small BB/DD force steaming west from the southern side of Sumatra.  In addition, Prince of Wales is on duty with Enterprise and Yorktown.
 
3.  Three Allied BBs will remain on station near Oosthaven just in case the enemy gets frisky.
 
4.  Allied CL/DD force at Palembang to raid enemy shipping at Singapore (this may be nasty, but let's try to stir things up a bit).
 
5.  Chinese at Loyang to deliberate attack - 2200 AV vs. one unit, which might be an enemy division, but it's probably something smaller.

[SqzMyLemon]

Eight hours!

[paullus99]

It'll be an interesting recap, I'm sure. I am fully in support of the raid on Singapore - it'll remind him how vulnerable he is & may force an additional pull-back on his part - perhaps even bring his combat ships back into your range as well.