The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

That's the kind of question that sets of warning bells!

[paullus99]

He's actually going to contest Miri? He's weeks past the point where he should be committing more troops in that area....oh well, if you can make him bleed for this stupid mistake (if that's what he's doing), all the better.

Any ships you kill will be less you have to deal with around the HI.

[Canoerebel]

I've had a really hard time deciding what to do with MDS as it approaches Horn Island. Next turn really seems to be the one of maximum exposure, as the TFs will near Portland Roads. John's been aware of what's going on, I think, and he's shows an elevated interest in this area for weeks (even as I typed that, I think I was coming to a decision).

On the one hand, I don't see anything out there; my carrier coverage is pretty stout, with 600+ aircraft. That can't take one KB one on one, in all likelihood. KB possibly has 1,000 to 1,250 aircraft. I have the benefit of nearby airbases supplementing with LRCAP. But John has the benefit of moderate range big airfields on New Guinea that could load up with all kinds of crap, including kamis.

Most of my TFs are at Cooktown or just to the SE. John might think they're all congregating there, so that the sudden push to Portland Roads catches him leaning a bit the other way...or not.

John is out of town tomorrow through Saturday, and I can just imagine losing a big carrier battle today and then having the evil taste in my mouth for the next five or six days. Yuck!

So I think I'm leaning towards standing down rather than forcing the passage; standing down to see if anything develops and to consider sending full Death Star this way to rendezvous.

But I haven't actually made the decision yet.

[Canoerebel]

Decision made, orders entered, turn sent to John.

Mini Death Star and the Herd will report to Cooktown, where 340 land-based fighters will provide protection, along with the full compliment of CVE fighters and the 1/2 of the CVL fighters (CV fighters moved to the airfield). I think that'll be roughly 600 to 700 fighters providing cover. That's not airtight, but it'll take a lot for enemy strike aircraft to penetrate. (Mini KB and it's 250 aircraft is two thousand miles away, so doesn't factor into the equation).

John's had a long time to think about this and set up an ambush. I want to more carefully configure my detection assets and then proceed a bit more carefully. It doesn't make a big difference whether MDS and the Herd arrive in a week or two or three...as long as they arrive safely.

[jwolf]

It doesn't make a big difference whether MDS and the Herd arrive in a week or two or three...as long as they arrive safely.

This makes a lot of sense. You're way ahead of the historical pace, at least in the PI area, so there is no need for a panicked rush to merge your forces together.

[Lowpe]

Thanks for the picture. I had no clue Japan still had Port Moresby and area.

[Canoerebel]

6/15/44

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone.

[Canoerebel]

Meaningful SigInt. I think it supports a notion that John will fight for Miri, and that he might bring his carriers in for support. I might not want Miri as badly as he does at the moment (I'm leaning forward, not back), but let's see how this develops. I have subs, aircraft, ships, and southern Luzon is a fortress.

[Canoerebel]

6/15/44

John may have decided that Borneo is worth fighting for. Ordinarily, I'd be all in....and I will put up a fight...but the future lies forward.

The big reinforcement/supply TFs will be moving through the Torres Strait day after tomorrow. In six or eight days it could be in position to move in the Philippines (after having picked up many more reinforcements in the DEI). That is the future. That is what I have to watch out for above all other things. But if I can mess with John efficiently over Borneo, all the better.

[Canoerebel]

John is leaving on a much-needed family spring break trip to New York City tomorrow. He's had a tough start to the year with lots of funky things going on, including some bodily aches and pains. He's looking forward to walking the streets of New York with his family. He isn't aware that I've arranged for John Dilworth to ambush him near Trinity Church.

He'll be back in town this weekend, and we'll resume the war Sunday or thereabouts.

[Lowpe]

So, you were needlessly full of angst over the Cooktown area, eh?

When I originally asked about Cooktown, you mentioned that it was the kind of post that sets of warning bells. What did you mean?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, my angst was off target, but well intended. John's been giving the area close scrutiny for weeks. The prospect of KB ambushing Mini Death Star was frightening. I hadn't seen KB in several months. I was pretty sure it was somewhere near Iwo...but there was a chance John had configured a great bushwhack. While I was on guard, the full implications still hit me pretty hard.

With regard to my comment about your post, I was (as just stated) already beginning to work through the possibilities for a Torres Strait ambush when your post came up. That prompted me to take a step back and look at the picture more dispassionately (without assumptions as to KB's whereabouts). To look at the Torres Strait region as you might see it. Doing so gave me a case of the yips.

There wasn't anything wrong with your post, if that's how my comment came across. It just served as an impetus to look at the situation a bit more objectively.

[Canoerebel]

What KB and Mini KB might be doing.

[Lowpe]

Good, there was no hidden meaning or anything in my post, but as I comment in both I am very paranoid about accidentally breaching opsec.

Both of you guys are masters of selective reporting. You on purpose, John because he is trying to have a Banzai moment or a rant. Sometimes the bigger picture eludes us humble readers.[:)]

[Canoerebel]

John wrote this when he sent the last turn before he left for his spring break trip: "Rip-Roaring turn and truly HATE to stop at this point.  You will understand when you watch."

Really, there was nothing remarkable about this turn. Certainly nothing "rip-roaring" from my perspective, as I watched. But there's something from his perspective, so I'm giving more thought. There can be only two possibilities, since from his viewpoint I would "understand" when I watched: (1) my SBDs sunk a bunch of his merchantmen bringing troops to Miri, preventing any from landing this turn, while 6th Aus. Div. shock-attacked there, dropping forts to 2. The base is ripe for the plucking in a few days, unless he does reinforce. If this is what he is referring to, he's putting a great deal of effort into this; or (2) KB sighted on a southerly course SW of Iwo Jima. If this is what he's referring to, he's riding his carriers hard to put them into position to fight, either in the Borneo campaign or to face down Mini Death Star and keep it from rendezvousing with Death Star.

[Canoerebel]

I had a message from John. He drank too much last night and ended up in a "Forumites Gone Wild" video, pulling down his tank top, showing off his hairy chest and tattoo of three Vals glide-bombing a sampan crewed by an old man and his pet monitor. The legend beneath the tattoo reads: "Banzai!"

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John wrote this when he sent the last turn before he left for his spring break trip: "Rip-Roaring turn and truly HATE to stop at this point.  You will understand when you watch."

Really, there was nothing remarkable about this turn. Certainly nothing "rip-roaring" from my perspective, as I watched. But there's something from his perspective, so I'm giving more thought. There can be only two possibilities, since from his viewpoint I would "understand" when I watched: (1) my SBDs sunk a bunch of his merchantmen bringing troops to Miri, preventing any from landing this turn, while 6th Aus. Div. shock-attacked there, dropping forts to 2. The base is ripe for the plucking in a few days, unless he does reinforce. If this is what he is referring to, he's putting a great deal of effort into this; or (2) KB sighted on a southerly course SW of Iwo Jima. If this is what he's referring to, he's riding his carriers hard to put them into position to fight, either in the Borneo campaign or to face down Mini Death Star and keep it from rendezvousing with Death Star.

He says that kind of stuff all the time it seems, leaving you quite perplexed. The written word is a very difficult medium to communicate clearly in sometimes.

[Canoerebel]

You're right. I make my business communicating in writing; it is hard; and then I re-read my posts and notice all the grammatical and spelling errors and think, "So much for my reputation for skill in this venue!"

But thank goodness I don't text. People today try to use texting while continuing (or starting) and argument, leading to the most ridiculous inability to communicate effectively ever witnessed in mankind's history. Understanding John's emails is a snap compared to texting's ability to mislead, confound, obfuscate, and discombobulate.

[Lowpe]

And then there is auto complete or auto correct to add to the confusion.

While John is away, give us an overview of how your pools stand especially with the troop losses in the Sumatra campaign.

What are your thoughts on the additional ships this mod adds?

[Canoerebel]

Before John and I took our 2-year sabbatical, beginning two months after D-Day Sumatra, I posted in my AAR that the Allies were in great shape no matter the outcome there. I was right, mainly due to John's aggressiveness and propensity for leaving gaping holes in his defenses. Here's an overview of Sumatra's more tangible effects:

1. Naval: Both sides lost heavily, but I did especially. I lost a considerable number of combat ships and merchantmen. At first, I felt like I might regret the number of destroyers, cruisers, oilers and tankers lost there and elsewhere early in the game. But Allied production has eliminated my concerns, especially about oilers, tankers and destroyers. Cruisers are in short supply throughout the game, so that impact is still felt.

With regard to differences in the naval OOB, I haven't really felt this, to date. John's combat ships got whittled away so much that he's simply been reluctant to fight since early in the Big Tent (DEI) campaign, and really since the big carrier battle near Wake Island. I probably haven't done a good job of explaining just how free the Allies have been from enemy naval interference. Since I have a long and narrow LOC to the DEI and now to the Philippines, this is a big help. I do think John's navy has recovered and received lots of reinforcements, so that he's more stout now than he should be. But his navy has been a non-factor in 1944, except keeping me "honest" through fleet-in-being doctrine.

2. Air: Allied fighter pools were down to zero, and that was what turned Sumatra into a defeat. But once the Hellcats came online in April 1943, that was it. My fighter pools have been flush ever since. I have something like 600 Hellcats in the pools right now, and something like 200 Thunderbolts. Those are my two workhorses. One unforeseen impact of the Sumatra campaign was the immense increase in the quality of my fighter pilots. Since I was fighting over my own bases, losses were relatively low. My fighter pilots, naval and army, are pretty darned good. My guys mostly get the best of John's guys, even when they're flying Franks, Georges and Sams. I didn't experience that kind of success in my previous games, because I didn't attend to pilot training and quality. The Allied airforce is robust.

3. Ground: I posted at the end of the Sumatra campaign that the loss of ground troops might prevent me from taking everything on the map, but wouldn't prevent me from taking what I need to win the war. That's been the case. I have more than enough troops to do what I need to do. It's hard enough to support what I have, let alone what might be around but for Sumatra.

I lost 18th Brit Div. on Sumatra. The Brit pools are low, so this unit won't factor into the game again. That'll be the only lasting impact of Sumatra.

I lost an Indian Div. plus a few smaller units. Those losses have long since been made good.

I didn't lose any Australians, so no impact there.

The Americans took the brunt of things. I lost a Marine Division and probably five Army divisions. All of them are back on map, some of them are full strength and training, and a few are still building and training. The loss of the units wasn't a big deal, but I wish I had saved cadres to prevent the need of rebuilding from scratch. When that happens, experience is 40%. It takes a long time to train the unit up to 55% or 60%.

Points: This may be the most serious impact of Sumatra. I think John gained 8,000 points for the troops destroyed. That's a lot for me to overcome! Yet by expending (losing) those points, I gained a strong position that resulted, directly and indirectly, in the cascade of misfortunes that John has suffered since he conquered Sumatra.

I have no doubt that Sumatra was the turning point of this war. Again, that's mostly due to John's way of playing the game. Had I lost Sumatra against some players, I probably wouldn't have recovered.

I knew my opponent.

One other thing: Sumatra came very close to succeeding on it's own. It held from November '42 to July '43. Had I a more supply (say, 200,000) or deeper fighter pools, or had I invade on January 10 instead of November 10, things might've turned out differently. It was a wild ride. It hurt to go through such a protracted losing campaign. But it turned out pretty effective.