The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right. I make my business communicating in writing; it is hard; and then I re-read my posts and notice all the grammatical and spelling errors and think, "So much for my reputation for skill in this venue!"

But thank goodness I don't text. People today try to use texting while continuing (or starting) and argument, leading to the most ridiculous inability to communicate effectively ever witnessed in mankind's history. Understanding John's emails is a snap compared to texting's ability to mislead, confound, obfuscate, and discombobulate.

[MakeeLearn]

If you don't have enough time to write.... develop a "writing jig"..

[Canoerebel]

Funny, that.

Coincidentally, today was the deadline day for the next issue of the magazine. Meaning: I sent all the material for the summer issue to my designer. He'll spend the next three weeks or so designing the summer issue. Then I'll get involved again for the proofing process.

[Canoerebel]

6/16/44

A big day for the Allies, as the navy turns back a big effort by John to reinforce Miri, sinking roughly 30 ships and half of 6th IJA Div. And the Army Air Corps ate up Japanese fighters at Clark, sweeping away opposition and bombing the field into submission.

These are major developments because John clearly assigns high priority to Miri, while form my perspective Luzon is the real show. His issues just got worse; his resources, which may be stretched, have just been stretched thinner.

Things are tough for him right now in the Fun House AOO, but they could be considerably worse in a week or ten days. Mini Death Star and its Herd is making its way into the Gulf of Carpentaria tomorrow. John can't allow that armada to link up with Death Star. I think this is the real Banzai! moment for him. Whether he sees it that way is the question.

[Canoerebel]

John sent 40+ merchantmen and small escorts to carry a division to a hotly contested base....and couldn't spare (or scrounge up) combat ships to provide escort. He may prove me wrong yet, but that's another dividend of the long, front-loaded investment in hunting the Japanese navy.

[Canoerebel]

Japanese army at Manila looks vulnerable. My army has pretty good prep; I wonder about his?

[Canoerebel]

Tough air battles at Clark Field today.

[BBfanboy]

Congrats on a brilliant intercept at Miri and great air tactics at Manila! You seem to know how to stretch your forces but still protect them most of the time. I wish my crystal ball worked as well as yours! [&o]

[morejeffs]

That are a lot of dead Franks.....

In the city (Manila) do you get a bonus for having armor (when he does not)?

[Bif1961]

You are now racking up Army VPs to compensate for your massive loses in DEI last year. It looks like the hand writing is on the wall as he reinforcements are being feed into the Allied firepower furnance.

[Lowpe]

Ok, for the life of me, I don't see the importance of the ships heading west thru the Torres straight. I will be patient and wait to see what develops, but to me anything that isn't 20 hexes from the HI seems to be a POW camp already.

I wish you would divulge a little more of your tactics at closing Manila, in front of a heavy Japanese first line fighter presence. There are other Allied players that complain about the hopelessness of attacking in such situations.

You have a plan, have stuck to said plan, and not once really been flustered. Uncertain, yes. Hesitant to pull the trigger, yes. But not once have you acted rashly...the attrition warfare you have embarked upon and your execution of it has been strong.[&o]

But a quick reminder to all those that say Japan is done. Think again. Japan is incredibly resilient and 20 merchantmen, 200 Franks and 200 squads is not the deathblow. There is only one deathblow for Japan, and as of yet CR is not there yet. Of course this assumes a Japan that doesn't fail their personal morale check.

[Bif1961]

The deathblow, in this game and not real life history, is the mental state of the opponent. Rare is the game that goes into 1945, let alone to the bloody end of a HI invasion by the Allies in 1945-46. We can count many times over an opponent quitting after suffering a shocking loss while they still had the means to continue to resist for months or even years to come. So it may not be the deathblow, more like the last straw of defeat in a series of defeats.

[Canoerebel]

The Allied air forces in Luzon are manhandling Japan right now, closing airfields, sweeping aside big fighter opposition, and tearing apart a good Japanese army. The only threat posed is supply levels, which are dwindling at a startling rate. The TFs coming in a bringing lots of supply...and enough fuel to keep all the ships happy into the medium term.

The only thing that stops me from going anywhere I want to is KB, which I think has regained its teeth. I think under the right circumstances (especially KB + massed LBA), John could win a carrier battle. That would slow things down considerably and postpone Peep Show indefinitely. But the incoming TFs include 3 CVs, 3 CVLs, and 12 CVEs. That's enough to allow Peep Show to proceed with confidence.

And the incoming TFs are bringing many more ground troops, including the core of the Peep Show infantry plus a lot of engineers and base force personnel.

Fun House has been unbelievably successful, and I can maintain the current pace of operations for perhaps another 30 days. Pushing that out another month or two is critical.

[Canoerebel]

Regarding the air battle over Luzon, nothing has really changed. The Allied air forces usually (not always) prevail in every head-to-head meeting with the enemy. The reasons are complex, and perhaps I don't even know fully why. Perhaps I've stumbled into good doctrine or John has blundered into bad. But I think the heart of the matter is that the quality of the Allied fighter pilot corps was superb following the Battle of Sumatra. Lightnings, Thunderbolts, and Corsairs are handling Franks, Georges, Zero 8s, and the occasional Sam with very good (not great) results. Many times, Allied fighters and bombers are flying from level 9 airfields, including Burma and Luzon. That allows massed, sustained campaigns over weeks and months. Meanwhile, John is often flying from smaller airfields that probably don't have enough aviation support or supply. As for tactical doctrine, I mix altitudes a lot. I almost never employ maximum altitude sweeps or CAP. Most of my fighters are set between 10k and 30k.

[Canoerebel]

Where we stand at the moment.

[MakeeLearn]

You should be able to find good deals on low mileage Japanese aircraft.

[Canoerebel]

Another air battle tactical note: In LBA battles, I have found that fighters flying escort are dead meat, always. I try to avoid combined missions, even for Death Star strikes against land targets. Better to sweep with fighters and let the 2EB and 4EB fly unescorted...even if that means that sometimes the fighters come in after the bombers (or don't fly at all, when the fighters happen to be operating from a separate field shut down by weather). Every now and then a mission contrary to this doctrine manages to assemble and go in, with results that refresh my resolve to prevent it from happening again, if possible.

[Canoerebel]

6/17/44

I have the turn, won't run it until late today, but have reviewed the combat report. Four important Allied ground attacks: Manila, Miri, and two between Moulmein and Tavoy. The latter two are Allied victories, Miri is oh-so-close (driving forts down to 0), and Manila is much better than expected, coming off at 1:1 and dropping forts from 5 to 4. Here are the details from the combat report:

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 53487 troops, 1049 guns, 1439 vehicles, Assault Value = 1876

Defending force 48512 troops, 567 guns, 77 vehicles, Assault Value = 1257

Allied adjusted assault: 1973

Japanese adjusted defense: 1771

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2249 casualties reported
Squads: 23 destroyed, 81 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 59 (2 destroyed, 57 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
908 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 146 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 68 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Guns lost 42 (2 destroyed, 40 disabled)
Vehicles lost 108 (1 destroyed, 107 disabled)

Assaulting units:
5th USMC Tank Battalion
766th Tank Battalion
6th Infantry Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
2nd Marine Division
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
93rd Infantry Division
9th Australian Div /1
181st Field Artillery Regiment
XI US Corps
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
209th Field Artillery Battalion
109th Tank Attack AT Gun Regiment
1st Medium Regiment

Defending units:
48th Division
15th Division
19th Division
21st Division
24th Division
1st Para Assault Division
8th JAAF AF Coy
38th Ind. Engineer Regiment
14th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
89th JAAF AF Bn
12th Mortar Battalion
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
19th Ind. Engr Rgt /1


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Ground combat at Miri (64,87)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 5124 troops, 221 guns, 84 vehicles, Assault Value = 154

Defending force 3189 troops, 144 guns, 24 vehicles, Assault Value = 53

Allied adjusted assault: 180

Japanese adjusted defense: 53

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
252 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
207 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
6th Australian Division

Defending units:
57th Infantry Bde /1
41st Air Defense AA Regiment
6th JNAF Coy
62nd Field AA Battalion
42nd Air Defense AA Regiment
65th Field AA Battalion
8th JNAF Coy


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 54,58 (near Tavoy)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 20113 troops, 278 guns, 156 vehicles, Assault Value = 696

Defending force 1734 troops, 11 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 84

Allied adjusted assault: 563

Japanese adjusted defense: 9

Allied assault odds: 62 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
973 casualties reported
Squads: 84 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 57 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
127 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 36 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled

Assaulting units:
7th Indian Division
16th Chindit Brigade
16th Indian Brigade
14th Chindit Brigade
63rd Indian Brigade

Defending units:
3rd RTA/B Division


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Ground combat at 55,58 (near Tavoy)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15044 troops, 161 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 546

Defending force 3768 troops, 32 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 121

Allied adjusted assault: 197

Japanese adjusted defense: 58

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
596 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 31 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
157 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
88th Indian Brigade
6th New Chinese Corps

Defending units:
1st Ind.Mixed Regiment

[jwolf]

Those results look very promising, especially at Manila. The Japanese are in huge trouble if they can't turn this around, somehow.

[Lowpe]

Is Mac around somewhere close by. His moment is coming very early now.

I look at the troops present at Manila, and scratch my head in disbelief.

It is only x2 terrain, so not great to defend in, but certainly an important base that should be properly defended. If John's understanding of ground warfare is so poor, you should be running riot. Of course, that is not your plan...