Would Putin Intervene In Belarus

[Lobster]

If it starts looking as if President Lukashenko has lost control and will be forced out would Putin march in the troops to prevent the possibility of a pro Western government? There were no independent election observers and the pres declares he had 80% of the votes. It's starting to get edgy there. This might make a good what if TOAW scenario.

[Simulacra53]

Russia would certainly see a western takeover as a threat to national security.
We have to remember the formal relationship of Russia and Belorussia.

Best would be to let the Belorussians solve this themselves without external meddling or intervention of any kind.

Tricky, absolutely.
Potential powder keg.

[Anonymous]

[Deleted by Admins]

[RangerJoe]

What would stop Putin from marching his army in to stop a country from having a pro-western democracy next door? Hmmmm, let me think. It does not belong to NATO so there is no reason for NATO to intervene, is there? Has anything like this happened before?

Let me think, Georgia? Ukraine? Nope, Putin would not march in and take part or all of a neighbor over nor would he try to.

[MrsWargamer]

I think this would be comparable to Quebec wanting to join with Russia.

I wouldn't be shocked if Russia reacted to them going very pro Western.
I'm not a fan of Putin, and not a fan of some of their politics. But I will be extremely pissed if my government sent over ANYTHING to get involved in that region.
I wouldn't be shocked if the US meddled though. And it would be a mistake.

And I hope it never becomes a subject for a wargame. Well, you know what I mean.

[rico21]

1- Putin defends civilization (he is the one who put the entire post-Soviet nuke arsenal under Russian lockup and prevent its dissemination.[&o]), not democracy[:(], a vast notion of law which varies according to the countries and individuals![:D]
2- Belarus is neither anti-Russian nor anti-putin, it wants economic and social reforms, which the transit of Russian gas can no longer bring.
3- Let's close this thread before it becomes political!

[76mm]

I've been listening to Russian radio over the internet for the last few days on this topic, it's quite interesting. While a variety of opinions have been expressed, most observers there think that Putin will not provide troops or security forces to help Lukashenko for several reasons:

1) due to the recent referendum in Russia, Putin can now stay in power there for some time, so there isn't any particular pressure for Russia to "merge" with Belorussia (to allow Putin to stay in power in a new position).
2) Unlike in, say, Ukraine, my understanding is that these demonstrations are more anti-Lukashenko than pro-Western. There is no talk of Belorussia joining NATO, and the Belorussian opposition has not expressed any interest in severing its many ties with Russia--indeed, it would be suicide for them to do so, because the Belorussian economy is heavily dependent on Russia.
3) If the Belorussian security forces become so unreliable that they can't be counted to to put down the unrest, Russia will not want to wade into the mess that Lukashenko created...it would rather sit back, let the cards fall where they may, and then try to create a constructive relationship with the new government.

Most observers think that Russia will offer Lukashenko sanctuary if he decides to step down, but that's about it.

That said, obviously no one really knows for sure, so we'll see.

[RangerJoe]

Only Putin knows. Maybe . . .

[Erik Rutins]

Locking this as while it may be an interesting modern war hypothetical, it also involves current politics.