Beginning war strategy critique: a Graycompany free post

[niceguy2005]

In the PBEM game I have just begun I am the allied player, it is still only 12/10/41. I have my war plan already drafted for the first 6 months. For the most part the plan is nothing out of the ordinary for the allies. Make last stands at Bataan, at Singapore and in Java. Evacuate a few key or highly useful units from the DEI. Start getting some U.S. forces deployed in the South Pacific, including reinforcing Palmyra, Canton and Suva, and Nomeau (sp?). I will also fall back through India to Burma. What I am not certain of is the Solomons and Akyab.

In my games against the AI, I ultimately had great success fighting it out for Rabaul. If you hold Rabaul you can pretty well hold the Solomons. If you loose the Solomons early then the enemy can threaten the supply lines to Australia and then your in real trouble because Australia is not self sufficient regarding supplies and oil. Even if ultimately I can't hold Rabaul I might be able to further delay the Japanese advance at a relatively low cost. Infantry and planes can easily be replaced and he will likely loose a great number of transports and possibly a CV or two trying to take it.

The initial force to hold Rabaul will be the Rabaul Garrison plus the Sparrow and Gull force battalions and the U.S. tank battalion at PM. They will later be reinforced by a full Aussie Div, two AA units and at least one CD unit (as soon as I can scrape together enough PP to move them). Air support will be the 24th Air Group from Clark Field which will eventually reach 72 P-40E's, another P-40 group from the west coast, and whatever dutch aircraft I can save. Also supporting will be two B-17 bomber groups and all the Beauforts I can scrape together. Initially the airfield at PM will be developed as will the base at Munda. Once there is sufficient engineering support in the area I will also develop Gili, Lunga and if at all possible Lae. Each of these bases will have 1 Bde as the corps of its defense. With multiple airfields my planes can move around if/when the KB comes a calling. If a loose one the others can combine to cut off and inhibit further invasions. I often base 2 - 3 carriers from Brisbane as rapid response, but prefer to keep them to the rear at this point in the game. I would add that if at any point Rabaul is lost, most or all forces would be withdrawn from the Solomons until late in '42 as it is almost impossible to defend at that point.

Opinions on this strategy?

[tsimmonds]

A nice juicy target! I want Halsey to try this in our new soon-to-start PBEM....[;)]

[janushm]

fortress rabaul? ill just capture anything surrounding it and cut it off..... surpressing any AC at rabaul with the KB and my BB's.......... result, 40.000 trapped allies [&o]

[witpqs]

Too far forward too early.

[jrlans]

I would have to agree Rabaul is much to close to Truk to be and effective hold out base while Japan still has the advantage. Better to either fall back and hit there transports hard in the DEI and try to rack up points or to fall back to PM and make it a fortress. PM is much eaiser to supply and nearly imposible for the Japanese to isolate.

If you go with your Rabaul first strategy and it fails you will almost certainly lose the entire solomons including posibly PM.

Even if your oppenent advances as far as laguna (guadalcannal) you shouldnt have a problem routing your supplies thru suva and then on to OZ.

[Feinder]

It depends entirely upon how agressive your opponent is. In one game, we put up a "spirited" defense of Rabaul. Ultimately it fell, but neither did we overly commit a lot forces for it's defense. In another (much more agressive PBEM game), I left Rabaul to die, because it was too "hot" to get anyone in or out. FWIW, it's even impossible (in all likelikhood), to even defend PM against a determined Japanese player.

One thing you -must- realize in PBEM is that your opponent will not suffer from the tunnel-vision of the AI. The AI would never think of capturing Pago-Pago, as an alternate to Suva (I don't think it cares about Suva for that matter). You PBEM oppenent will likely go wherever it decides to go, IN FORCE. Defending a base with a Bde or even a RCT would normally be sufficient to avert a landing by the AI. You PBEM opponent knows this, and will come at you with 2 Divs.

In all likelyhood, defending Rabual is too far forward. Think about defending Noumea. Rabaul and Lunga -will- fall, with as many troops as you choose to commit there. And likely even substantial pressure on even Luganville/Efate/Noumea.

As a final note, make your stand at Manillain PI. The terrain bonus for swamps (Bataan) is 3x. Whereas the bonus for city is 4x, and Manilla is a no-malaria zone.

ALWAYS make best use of terrain. Defend in woods/mountains. Watch those bases in Malaya. Many of them are in clear terrain. Better to gain the advantage of the wood-lined roads just one hex away.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: janushm

fortress rabaul? ill just capture anything surrounding it and cut it off..... surpressing any AC at rabaul with the KB and my BB's.......... result, 40.000 trapped allies [&o]

I appreciate all the input from everyone and certainly the consensus is "don't do it." The only thing that I might point out though, is that the beauty of this plan is that the intial stages call for a build up at PM and Munda, with only slight reinforcement of Rabaul. Until about Feb the only thing I have to decide is what to do with the political points I am accumulating. Do I spend them now saving units from DEI or do I spend them in a couple of months moving units from Australia and New Zealand commands to the SouthPac? It kills me to give up ground unnecissarily because every island I loose now will take 5 times the force to retake after '43, after the Japs have dug in and call it home. After about 6/42 the allies should have enough heavy bombers to control the area, but the question is, can they hold out until then? Oz starts with more troops then needed for home defense and in my plan the ultimate defense of PM is not a priority. It isn't needed to retake the Solomons in '43. So a last stand at PM is not in the cards.

[Tom Hunter]

The problem I have with your plan is the lack of flexibility.

The Japanese will advance in some places that you cannot re-inforce or re-organize because there is no time:
Phillipines
Malaya
Borneo

Then they will advance into Java and Sumatra for the oil

Then they MAY advance into:
The Solomons
New Guinea
Timor
Burma
China
South Pacific
Central Pacific
North Australia
North Pacific
India

My experience is that you can slow them on the main axis of advance but not stop them, and you can stop them on secondary axis(es) of advance. Your plan is to fight them in New Guinea and the Solomons, but there are two problems this plan fails to address.

What if they don't go there?
What if they do go there with everything?

If they don't go there they will crush you somewhere else.
If they come with everything they will just crush you.

Sorry to be so brutal (ok not really sorry, but you asked[;)]) but you need more flexibility in your planning. Maybe you already have it, but if you do you did not tell us.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: Feinder

It depends entirely upon how agressive your opponent is...One thing you -must- realize in PBEM is that your opponent will not suffer from the tunnel-vision of the AI. The AI would never think of capturing Pago-Pago, as an alternate to Suva (I don't think it cares about Suva for that matter). You PBEM oppenent will likely go wherever it decides to go, IN FORCE. Defending a base with a Bde or even a RCT would normally be sufficient to avert a landing by the AI. You PBEM opponent knows this, and will come at you with 2 Divs.

In all likelyhood, defending Rabual is too far forward. Think about defending Noumea. Rabaul and Lunga -will- fall, with as many troops as you choose to commit there. And likely even substantial pressure on even Luganville/Efate/Noumea.

Thanks for the advise. This is exactly my thinking, it depends on how aggressive he will be. It does seem unlikely Rabaul will hold, but if I can put up a good fight somewhere in the area, with out committing too many troops, it is going to make it a lot tougher for him to take Nomeau and I can make taking the Solomons costly.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

The problem I have with your plan is the lack of flexibility.

The Japanese will advance in some places that you cannot re-inforce or re-organize because there is no time:
Phillipines
Malaya
Borneo

Then they will advance into Java and Sumatra for the oil

Then they MAY advance into:
The Solomons
New Guinea
Timor
Burma
China
South Pacific
Central Pacific
North Australia
North Pacific
India

My experience is that you can slow them on the main axis of advance but not stop them, and you can stop them on secondary axis(es) of advance. Your plan is to fight them in New Guinea and the Solomons, but there are two problems this plan fails to address.

What if they don't go there?
What if they do go there with everything?

If they don't go there they will crush you somewhere else.
If they come with everything they will just crush you.

Sorry to be so brutal (ok not really sorry, but you asked[;)]) but you need more flexibility in your planning. Maybe you already have it, but if you do you did not tell us.

Excellent analysis! With most of my bombers in the Solomons and NG I have been trying to decide how I could respond if he attacks through Tarawa and Canton, and takes Suva and Pago-Pago, or even Alaska. The answer is that I don't know. My bombers would be committed. I should have enough ground troops to stop any secondary attacks in these other areas, but probably not the air cover.

[Feinder]

FWIW -

Important transfer bases for B-17s
Canton Island
Noumea

Important transfer bases for B-25s and B-26s
Palmyra
Canton Island
Suva
Noumea
(B-26s can NOT bounce to Oz from Noumea by the way)

Holding Canton and Noumea priorities for the South Pacific. To the tune of basically putting as many guys there as you can (2 - 3 Divisions is nice). And while you get them parked there, they not only act as defense for these bases, but also act as staging points for your own offenses later (MUCH later).

Holding Suva is secondary, but almost as important (if anything, Japan gets scads of points for Suva and Ndini, and I -refuse- to lose by points, even if we agree to keep fighting). Palmyra is less critical, since Japan is less likely to go for it, due to it's proximity to Pearl (altho you should put something there to defend the place).

-F-

[Tom Hunter]

It's not so much the bombers, its the base forces to fly them.

Bombers can shuttle back and forth from Timor to Port Moresby in a day or two but if the base forces are not in place then they can't fight, or can't fight very well.

Two additional observations, one about your experience Vs. the AI and the other about the player community, one of whom is your Japanese opponent.

The AI can be slowed or stopped at Raubal, but a human can't. Not that you should not make things hard for him, but forget about holding the place and its very likely that Rabaul will fall in December 1941, before you can get any re-inforcements too it.

Many Japanese players put a lot of effort into taking Rabual and the Solomons very early in the game. I gather some of this is from UV (which I never played) where the Solomons were very important to Japanese strategy. If your opponent is true to form then you are going to run into a very big Japanese force at a time when you can't beat it.

Just a bit more detail

Good luck

[ChezDaJez]

I have to agreee with Janushm and witpqs. Its much too far forward, too early to defend against a PBEM opponent. A smart opponent could simply land at Buins, Kavieng and/or Shortlands and develop the airfields. Even Lae or Wewak would work. Rabaul would then be cutoff from any sealift. You could attempt to resupply from the air but I doubt the Allies have enough transport early on to be effective.

The number one axiom is conducting combat operations is to protect your rear and never leave yourself in a position to be isolated. Thats what happened to many Japanese garrisons during the war. We simply suppressed and bypassed them. If your opponent can do that, then Rabaul becomes just another useless rock until you are to weak to resist an assault.

In addition, if I were your opponent, I would send bombardment groups and bombers on a routine basis from Truk. One good naval bombardment and your aircraft are detroyed/grounded. His bombers would be able to keep the field closed because you wouldn't have sufficient engineers to repair the damage quickly.

If you are concerned about the Solomons falling, try using some of those forces to establish an airfield on Guadalcanal and Espiritu Santo. Its much harder to be cutoff there plus if he tries to use his air force to knock out the field, he will gain lots of fatigue flying from Rabaul which makes them easier to kill.

Chez

[kaiser73]

If you can't put 3-4 Divs+engineers+fighters in a base and you can't be sure you able to keep it supplied (in case KB comes for example), don't even take in consideration defending a base.

Otherwise you will just give your opponent free points.

Infantry isn't easily replaced. if you lose 1 Div, you won't get it back or you get back after long time.

[JeffroK]

Both the AI and yours truly (as Japan)have landed at Rabaul by the end of December 41, are you going to be able to land your force in time to keep the japanese out???

[Hoplosternum]

I agree that Rabaul is probably too far forward. Although an early Japanese attack with just the South Seas Detatchment and the spare troops on Truk will probably bog down if he does not heavily surpress Rabaul as he attacks. So if the Japanese go for it early and cheaply there may be a short term gain in trying to hold him up here. Once his CVs and extra divisions arrive though you have little chance so get out whatever you can. So I might risk a few of my starting Cruisers and / or airlift in a small increase in the garisson if he comes early but nothing I can't risk losing. If he does not come in the first month or so I would evacuate at least any extra forces I sent, because he will come later and he will come big.

The problem with defending forward is after you have lost those bases and troops the rear bases that are more crucial (Noumea, PM, Fiji etc.) don't have those troops defending them. They are already dead. WitP will disable a few of the victors squads but after a bit of R&R (plus excess supplies) they will be as good as new. And prepped for the next base. You however have nothing (or a few slowly reforming units from fragments that will take months or years to rebuild).

In general it's best to be a bit reactive as the allies rather than have rigid plans I think. If the Japanese player commits Naval, Air and some serious land forces to the Solomons or the Pacific early he will take them. Let him. He will be weaker else where and under those circumstances I'd risk more assets in the DEI or Indian Ocean. A few old US battleships or Force Z, both of which are precious but not too serious if lost might really make him pay there. KB cannot be everywhere and you can lose a BB more than he can a CA.

There are plenty of opportunities to delay the Japanese in the PI, Burma, China and DEI if the IJ uses too many forces on early strikes into the Pacific. But in WitP the allies can in general recover from Ship (apart from CVs [X(]) and Air losses more easily than ground losses. So be very careful about moving those forward.

[Halsey]

ORIGINAL: irrelevant

A nice juicy target! I want Halsey to try this in our new soon-to-start PBEM....[;)]

Fat chance![:D]

Got more important things to do than to send potential POW's to the Japanese Empire.[;)]

[niceguy2005]

Thanks everyone for the input. After things develop further (probably much further) I will post the outcome back here. I am sufficiently convinced of the near impossibility of the task. However, I intend to remain flexible. It is extremely early in the game. I am not certain what goals my oponnent will pursue. It is now evident that he intends to attack the northern flank of the Chinese army and roll it back. His attack into Malya is less than anticipated. His attack on PI is aggressive. He seems to be focused on sinking ships rather than taking territory. He went after the fleets at Pearl, Singapore and Manilla with a vengenace. My War Plan consists of three sections a defensive plan, a logistics plan and a list of possibly targets of opportunity. [:D] The target list is a list of Japanese weak points and possible ways of exploiting them. Rabaul will be watched closely. [;)]

[JeffroK]

As an general Allied stategy, I have what I consider my MLR as those bases which must be held (They depend on which way you are planning to go) Midway, Johnston & Baker/Howland Island are a must to screen Hawaii. Noumea then Espiritu Santo for Sth Pacific. Australia plus Port Moresby and in India Burma Akyab, Imphal, Kohoma, Ledo.

I believe if the Japanese break these lines there will be severe consequenses for those regions. If you can get a Division plus Airpower into the Islands or 2 Div equivalents into the Pm,Indian bases plus airpower you should be safe or at least provide enough time for reaction. Always have a reserve, Land,sea or Air.

Beyond this line you grab what you are allowed, Wake if its not captured, The Gilberts(Tarawa etc) Ndeni, G'Canal, Milne Bay, Buna, Lae. Lashio, Mytkyina, Mandalay, Magwe.

If tha Japanese are in force elsewhere, use your Reserve to take the next little bite, you cant Island hop in the early years. As has benn said, be flewxible, your plan should be a structure, not the Gospel.

Dont forget to utilise the Aus & NZ Bdes, they are competent and can at least garrison bases as you move your US/USMC Divs North.

[ADavidB]

I appreciate all the input from everyone and certainly the consensus is "don't do it." The only thing that I might point out though, is that the beauty of this plan is that the intial stages call for a build up at PM and Munda, with only slight reinforcement of Rabaul. Until about Feb the only thing I have to decide is what to do with the political points I am accumulating. Do I spend them now saving units from DEI or do I spend them in a couple of months moving units from Australia and New Zealand commands to the SouthPac? It kills me to give up ground unnecissarily because every island I loose now will take 5 times the force to retake after '43, after the Japs have dug in and call it home. After about 6/42 the allies should have enough heavy bombers to control the area, but the question is, can they hold out until then? Oz starts with more troops then needed for home defense and in my plan the ultimate defense of PM is not a priority. It isn't needed to retake the Solomons in '43. So a last stand at PM is not in the cards.

A couple of suggestions:

1 - Don't spend political points on troops that can't grow into useful forces - therefore think really hard about moving Dutch troops out of the DEI. Reorganizing them within the DEI is another issue. If you can get US (not Philippine) LCUs out of the Philippines it is worth it because they will grow back.

2 - Remember the KB. Whenever you think about moving forward, stop and remember the KB again. If you move troops out of NZ or Australia, etc, early in the game and leave them at some islands further north, you allow the your Japanese opponent to go past, isolate your units, sink your shipping in the region, and take NZ as for sheer nuisance value. The KB can move faster than most of your ships and will sink you quickly.

3 - The game has changed - US bombers no longer rule the skies in late 42. Until you get long range escorts like P-38s and general fighters like Corsairs that can stand up to the Japanese fighters you will not be able to shut down the Japanese air fields.

4 - "Enough troops for Home Defense" means being able to stop a landing of 4 or more crack divisions that is supported by two big battleship bombardment TFs, one or more crack cruiser combat TFs with Long Lance torpedoes, and the KB. Can you keep a determined Japanese player from grabbing Brisbane or Sidney if you pull your troops?

5 - Your troops never grow stronger in malarial locations, only weaker. If you need to build up your units (and early in the war you do) you must have them in well supplied, non-malarial bases, preferable with a HQ present.

Have fun -

Dave