Order of Lenin....or a trip to Lubyanka Prison?

[Q-Ball]

Comrades!

I am back to this game after 4 years, and not sure what the markers are for where play should be after the summer campaign. I have just completed the summer (it's T17), and have a question: What does this game look like?

I have ideas and comments, but want to hear yours first

Should I receive the Order of Lenin? Or, simply continued service to the Red Army of Workers and Peasants? Or am I about to get a visit from the NKVD to come to Moscow for "consultations"?

Overall, and I've told my opponent, I did commit early up North, with lots of units going there T2 to T4, and continued rotation thereafter. Of course, you can't defend everything, so that always has a price......

Anyway, here is the current MAP. In case you can't really see, here is the situation:

--I hold Leningrad area, and it is not isolated. Also hold Novgorod
--In AGC, he has taken Vyazma; I hold Rzhev and Kaluga comfortably
--I hold Orel, but he is just outside the gates. Kursk is still mine, he's 3 hexes outside. I lost Kharkov/Belgorod
--Stalino has fallen

Situation.jpg (985.33 KiB) Viewed 415 times

That may paint a good picture, but the losses.....

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And the Air Losses. It seems like it's been very bloody; you don't want to be a Soviet Fighter Pilot in my VVS

Air Losses.jpg (97.96 KiB) Viewed 415 times

Finally, the OOB; it's been right around 3 mil on the map for weeks

OOB.jpg (87.05 KiB) Viewed 415 times

What say you, Comrades?

[Q-Ball]

As a side note, since the first couple turns I haven't lost alot of units to encirclement; it's been all ROUTS and RETREATS, with some Shatters. This loss ratio from this turn is fairly typical; during the Axis action phase, they lost 4,000 men, I lost 158,000; there were no surrenders

Losses.jpg (255.8 KiB) Viewed 412 times

[M60A3TTS]

I'm not sure you really want answers to these questions as they might be more beneficial to your opponent than you. But since you opened the door, I guess I'll walk through.

Your opponent clearly followed the grind strategy, forgoing some territorial gains and so far has gotten the desired results. But there is a caveat here.

At 3.3 million Soviet losses, your opponent should push for another 100k for each of the turns 21-24. That would put you at 3.7 mil. While some Axis players consider 4 or 4.1 mil as the gold standard, 3.7 would be sufficiently debilitating as your NM languishes at 45. If on the other hand he just sits there doing nothing then I'd say that would diminish what he's accomplished so far.

As to how he gets those casualties, you seem positioned to offer them up if you choose to defend Orel and Kursk with a lot of units. A push to isolate Leningrad could do the same thing but then as Axis play goes, you really need a solid understanding of how to maintain a strong supply base allowing for a move over the Neva which would leave Leningrad seriously exposed to capture in 1942. The Axis move into the Crimea will keep some of his units away from other portions of the frontline. On the other hand it is possible for the Axis to wage winter ops here because the Crimea doesn't tend to see a lot of heavy snow hexes with the potential to seriously reduce Axis defensive CVs in the Dec-Jan timeline.

Now all this said, I'm not suggesting you hand over Orel and Kursk. Nothing of the sort, holding them would have negative supply implications for your opponent while strengthening your own. But I would be calculating in determining just how high a price in manpower I'd be willing to pay for the benefits of retaining these locations.

[56ajax]

Order of Lenin with a Red Banner and free entry to the Kirov Ballet for life.

Still holding Leningrad.....

[Q-Ball]

Good thoughts here, and I was concerned about the losses. Playing as Soviets you are sometimes forced into a choice between two bad options in 1941 (retreating or fighting and dying). My opponent has done a good job on grinding for sure, and many of my choices were deliberate; defending Leningrad hard, I knew that would result in many Rifle Divisions going into the woodchipper. I made a similar choice around Kharkov, which didn't fall until mid-September, but was very costly for me

Generally, I did withdraw at first, but stood once I reached defensible terrain (Heavy Woods up north, and Dnepr River in the South), so turns 3-5 I actually had pretty low losses....they spiked after T7

Any thoughts on the air? Will those losses degrade the LW at all, or no?

[Wiedrock]

Any thoughts on the air? Will those losses degrade the LW at all, or no?

It's more losses than historic.

[Lurberri]

It's more losses than historic.

More German or Soviet losses? Both?

[Sertorius21]

Without disclosing any State secrets, I am also interested in your views on where we stand, both of us, as I am the one with the Feldgrau uniform (having ordered white overcoats for what's going to come in 3-4 weeks, not sure how much will arrive).

Since turn 3, the largest pocket must have been 6 divisions, so not massive. I managed to get 3-4 divisions to surrender in the north a couple of times, but there was just too much density to completely throw the Russians off balance. I love pincer movements but it doesn't mean I am massively successful at that, with Q-Ball wary of defending any place to the last man.

As for the Luftwaffe, I had decided that there was little point in husbanding it in clear enough weather, with a lot of months during which bombers will be grounded in practice - do not hesitate to mention if that's too much of an assumption.

[Wiedrock]

It's more losses than historic.

More German or Soviet losses? Both?

I was talking German only.
LW lost 2212 during missions and 280 outside of missions in 1941. So being at 2369 on T17 leaves more than 2 Months still ahead.

[Joel Billings]

And the Soviets historically lost 20k aircraft.

[Q-Ball]

On Air Losses, I was thinking more of the impact in-game.

I don't think it's even possible for the VVS in-game to lose 20,000 aircraft in 1941; the entire VVS has 10,500 at game start, and produces about another 10,000 in 1941.....you would have to lose just about every single plane to get there, including the stuff in the Theater Boxes. In my game, I have lost 12,700, and the entire VVS has 8200 aircraft right now.

Besides, I think for the LW the real loss to pay attention to, IIRC, is those 1200 pilots; I don't think planes matter much