Soviet Union x P.R.China
Complexity: 30.19 Map: 125x88
Dates: 2/24/1979-5/15/1979
Sino-Soviet 79
- Hypothetic Soviet invasion of China, 1979
by Nikolai Ezhov
Date: February-May 1979
Location: Manchuria and northern China
Map Scale: 20km/hex
Time Scale: Half week/turn
Unit Scale: Division/Brigade/Regiment
Length: 24 turns
Unit color:
Yellow on Yellow: People's Liberation Army (PLA)
White on Yellow: People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)
Blue on Yellow: People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
Olive on Yellow: People's Militia
Gold on Red: Soviet Army (SA)
Scarlet on Red: Soviet Air Force (VVS)
Black on Red: Soviet Air Defense Force (PVO)
White on Red: Soviet paramilitaries (KGB Border Troops, MVD Interior Troops, Railway Troops)
Pink on Blue: Mongolian People's Army
Significant events:
1. The scenario starts with a ceasefire. Both sides mobilize. Hostility begins at Turn 4.
2. The Soviets gained sealifting capability at Turn 2, airlifting capability at Turn 4.
3. The Chinese gained sealifting capability at Turn 1, airlifting capability at Turn 4.
The whirlwind of 1979 dragged the already-scattered communist bloc in Asia into a deepening vortex of conflicts. On December 21st, 1978, the pro-USSR Socialist Republic of Vietnam launched a full-scale invasion against the Democratic Kampuchea, controlled by the China-backed Khmer Rouge. The invasion lasted for no longer than 3 weeks before Vietnam forces entered Phnom Penh on January 7th, 1979. China, which was furious about the deed of the Vietnamese, declared mobilization immediately. From January to February 1979, 500,000 Chinese troops were transport to the Sino-Vietnam border. On February 17, nine PLA army corps crossed the Sino-Vietnamese border to launch a "self-defense operation". The second phase of the Third Indochina War broke out.
Nevertheless, Vietnam, "the little Cuba in the East" (referred by Chinese authority because of the continuous Vietnamese armed intervene of its neighbor countries), was not the only one that China had to concern about. The major threat came from the north. The Soviet Union was the biggest opponent of China since the breakdown of Sino-Soviet relationship in the mid-1960's. Hence China could launch an invasion as a retaliation of Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia, so could the USSR do the same to China on the Sino-Soviet border. Therefore, from January to March 1979, all four major military regions in northern China, Shenyang MR, Beijing MR, Lanzhou MR and Urumqi MR, were mobilized as well. The PLA was expecting an army-level harassment attack in either Xinjiang or Manchuria.
But the Soviets held still. Except for reinforcing three additional divisions to the 39th Combined Arms Army in Mongolia, Soviet Army did not react the Sino-Vietnamese War with military mobilization. In late February it was clear that the invasion was not going to happen: all Soviet Far-Eastern/Trans-Baikal MD divisions under reduced or cadet strength were not mobilizing, and there was no sign of Soviet Army transferring to the east. By March 16th China declared the completion of retreating all forces back to her border, and PLA northern military regions were off alert shortly after. The Sino-Vietnam War did not escalate into a full-scale armed conflict between the USSR and P.R. China.
But there could be alternatives: what if the Soviet Politburo decided a full-scale attack? After the death of Mao, the relationship between China and USSR did not improve as Moscow expected; on the contrary, China's attitude towards USSR was worsen, and her relationship with the United States was getting stronger and stronger. What if the Soviet Politburo felt it can no longer tolerate this situation and about to change it once and for all? What if the Politburo misjudged the nature of Chinese mobilization as a preclude of invasion of Soviet far-eastern territory and decided to strike first?
Designed by: Nikolai Ezhov
Map by: BeerHall and Nikolai Ezhov
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