Russo-Ukraine war

[lion_of_judah]

Here is what I have so far. The OOB's were taken from sources I have and from Wiki leaks which to my surprise had fairly decent OOB's. The European Union and NATO will not intervene unless Lithuania is attacked, and even then it is not a certainty that they will.
I have given the event after Lithuania is invaded a 65% chance that Europe will intervene. I'm thinking this maybe still too high, but not sure. The following are screenshots I have so far. First screenshot is

Russo-Ukraine war

[lion_of_judah]

Second Screenshot

[lion_of_judah]

third screenshot

[lion_of_judah]

I haven't been able to figure out who made the original map, but they did a very good job and I give them major cudo's for it. Once I can figure out who made the map I will give them credit for this. Very good map indeed.

[lion_of_judah]

This scenario is still a work in progress, now all that needs too be done is program all the events and the PO. The latter will take some time though, as I'm re-learning how to use this. At the beginning of the turn, there is a cease-fire which signifies the time right after Russian occupation solidifying Russian control over Crimea. The Russian side has the option to declare war at any time after turn 1,though this could change. Estonia is assumed too have been annexed with not a peep out of Europe,so by making the Lithuania event, this signifies Europe finally standing up to Putin.

After the Russians capture Zaporozhye in eastern Ukraine there is a 50-55% chance of European intervention, this goes up to 65% after Russia declares war on Lithuania. If there is no European intervention then the chances of a Ukrainian victory is zero, What I need to figure out is how Russia can still win without making an event option for Russia where they can just declare war on Europe, but as of now the victory points the Russian's will need in order to win are a lot.

Right now I think the EU/NATO/Ukraine have 720 points to Russia's 327, so if anyone can think of a better way please let me know. I had thought the force loss tolerance was set, but after playing a few turns, the loss tolerance is still at 0, is it suppose to be this way or should I do something else in order too use this. It has been a long time since I have played this game and so I'm just starting to acclimate back into it.

[lion_of_judah]

Here is the link for the Ukrainian OOB

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

[lion_of_judah]

Russian allies

Serbia
Hungry/Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan

Ukrainian allies

European Union
Greece (made them not apart of the EU
Turkey ( same as greece)
Lithuania
Poland
Nordic Union ( Finland,Norway,Sweden)

[sPzAbt653]

... after playing a few turns, the loss tolerance is still at 0 ...

Somebody knows better than I do, but I think it also has something to do with reinforcements.

[lion_of_judah]

Loss tolerance in game terms, what kind of effects does this have? Does one really need this or is it just for more realism, thanks

[Jo van der Pluym]

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

Russian allies

Serbia
Hungry/Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan

Ukrainian allies

European Union
Greece (made them not apart of the EU
Turkey ( same as greece)
Lithuania
Poland
Nordic Union ( Finland,Norway,Sweden)

Hungary and Poland are members of the European Union

[josant]

Hungary and Poland are also NATO members

[Josh]

ORIGINAL: Jo van der Pluym

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

Russian allies

Serbia
Hungry/Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan

Ukrainian allies

European Union
Greece (made them not apart of the EU
Turkey ( same as greece)
Lithuania
Poland
Nordic Union ( Finland,Norway,Sweden)

Hungary and Poland are members of the European Union

Was a bit surprised at that as well [:D] *no way* the Poles would fight alongside the Russians. Not much love between these two...

[Curtis Lemay]

It appears like your map omits Moldova and includes its territory as part of Ukraine. You also appear to have omitted the Russian part of East Prussia. Kaliningrad is Russian territory, for example. Kind of looks like you gave it to the Poles.

[Lobster]

Hmmm...and I thought the Baltic countries were also a part of NATO. How did some of them become part of the New Russian Empire? I think you need to remake the map to mirror the political borders as they now exist. And I really don't see Serbia entering a war on Russia's side since they would be facing Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and anyone who has an axe to grind which is probably everyone in the region. They would last about a day.

It would basically be NATO and maybe NATO Action Plan members. If you are including Partnership in Peace members as Russian allies I would not do so. It's a mess since Eastern Europe has become balkanized. Fairly like pre WW1 except a little less hate.

[sPzAbt653]

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

Loss tolerance in game terms, what kind of effects does this have? Does one really need this or is it just for more realism, thanks

Its only for Victory Conditions as far as I know. If you want one side to pay more for casualties you raise that sides value, if casualites shouldn't matter in victory determination, you lower it for that side.

[lion_of_judah]

the Poles are allied with NATO, not Russia. I combined Austria/Hungary together and made one nation. This is because Hungary receives a major portion of their gas/oil from Russia as many other European nations do and so they are not so much on the side of NATO or the EU. Austria I combined with Hungary because Austria doesn't matter very much. I believe if a war came, Hungary would not want a repeat of Russian troops occupying their country so either they would stay neutral or with the threat of their gas supplies cut off they may just turn on Europe. This though is just my opinion

I left off Moldova as it is assumed they have been absorbed by both Romania and Ukraine as Estonia has been absorbed by Russia and NATO/EU being weak as they are in real life, did nothing to prevent it. Lithuania is different as I created an event which signifies NATO/EU getting their spin back or rather a 65% chance they get their spine back ( which I don't think they would even then. I could put Estonia back in though as I have been chewing on whether or not to do so.

Serbia was added, as they would not just set out a major war in Europe, especially if Russia guaranteed their security and rebuilt their military in my opinion. They meaning Serbia wants revenge ( as in the real world). They would see their chance at this, with Europe being preoccupied with protecting Poland from Russia.

The United States has some units in Europe but not much. I did not add much either as the mood in this country does not and would not support another war in my opinion, and without the U.S. NATO would collapse

[lion_of_judah]

I forgot to put Bulgaria in the Ukraine allies column. Switzerland is neutral, in case anyone is wondering.

[lion_of_judah]

I would agree to a point, but once Ukraine has been defeated which after about 12 turns the southern front for Ukraine collapses. So when Russian forces are on the Romanian border, I'm thinking the Romanians will be more worried about Russia than Serbia. But since I'm limited on how I can do things in this game I'm kind of stuck on having it like it is now, unless someone can give me a better way of doing it, which I will appreciate.

[lion_of_judah]

I've played 19 turns so far, and the Ukrainian lines in the south collapse around turn 12 and by turn 19 all objectives in Ukraine have been captured, with Kiev and Odessa surrounded. No EU/NATO intervention when Zaporozhyel in eastern Ukraine fell (50% chance) and by this time Russia is down to a marginal defeat. So it appears Lithuania will have too be attacked in order for a Russian victory

[lion_of_judah]

I've decided to add Estonia as this will help in realism. Estonia doesn't have much of an army so that will be a cake walk, and as for the EU intervention I'm thinking less than Lithuania, probably around 45-50% chance.