Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

A forum for the discussion of the World in Flames AI Opponent.

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amwild
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by amwild »

ORIGINAL: Neilster
...

Yes, but as I've already explained, swift, crushing defeats of the sort you describe are not what land combat in WiF models. In the several days of combat that occurs, over a front about 100km long, plenty of information about what is happening would go up the chain of command. Take the destruction of Army Group Centre in June 1944 for example. The German armies were rapidly crushed by massive and fast moving Soviet forces and although Army Group HQ was unable to effectively intervene, they were all too aware of the strength of the opposition. Overruns might be an exception but that is destruction during movement and I have already argued for possible FoW for adjacent enemy units rather than automatic revelation.

...

The status of smaller formations can often be ambiguous or unknown but for the reasons I've stated above, the status of 50 000 troops and their associated support infrastructures is likely to be quite well known, even if it's bad news. Also, if a unit is supposedly destroyed, someone, either the phasing or non phasing player, removes it from the map. You haven't explained how this can be handled or the case of shattered units. When you talk of units blundering into one another, you again seem not to grasp the scale of WiF's land units. Corps, and even divisions don't move without dedicated recon units probing ahead and local attacks being launched to find weak points. Small units can bumb into one another but not large formations.

...

I'm perfectly aware of what you're on about, it's just not appropriate for the massive forces represented by WiF land units. A whole corps never loses its communications. It's a massive organisation consisting of dozens of organic or attached units, each with their own radios, runners, dispatch riders, carrier pigeons and landlines. A whole corps can't regain combat effectiveness without the enemy noticing because of the multitude of sources that would be providing evidence to the contrary. Battalion after battalion would be reporting stiffening resistance or local counterattacks. Regimental HQs would be passing on these reports. Again, you're underestimating the scale of the units involved.

...

I think there is more of a place for friendly FOW in naval combat but it still has to be remembered that the naval counters in WiF don't typically represent single ships.

...

As I've already pointed out, air actions represent several days of action. One's own losses and serviceability would be very obvious. A handful of pilots that were lost might turn up several months later after escaping but that's not worth modeling when there are hundreds in an air unit.

Cheers, Neilster

You're right, of course. I tend to think more tactically than strategically. With these kinds of numbers, it is hard to lose track of your own units.

On the other hand, this doesn't mean that a player should know everything about the enemy. A player should probably know pretty much where most of the enemy units are, though not necessarily what they are capable of until they actually fight them. I like the idea of hiding the game combat and movement values of a unit until the player or an ally has actually fought the unit. Units available at the start of a game would probably have known scores.

Also, as I have mentioned before, Fog of War can be implemented even in cardboard WiF by allowing stacks of units to be sorted so that a player-chosen unit is at the top, and then forbidding opponents from examining the contents of an enemy stack until an attack is declared. This should be easy for MWiF.
ORIGINAL: SamuraiProgrammer
I am not sure where my opinion falls on this issue. It is fairly obvious that there should be decent information about army groups in a hex even if the hex is off of the front line. Which unit may have been fairly easy to figure out from intel reports.

But Fog Of War may have had an instrumental part to play in the outcome....

Massive effort was put into a deception (coded radio messages and such) that made it look like Patton was in charge of a large force that would attack German holdings. I have always heard (correct me if I am wrong) that Hitler refused to release reserves to Rommel on D-Day because he was convinced that Normandy was a feint and the real invasion would occur somewhere else (Netherlands?). I have also heard it speculated that if Rommel had gotten the reserves, D-Day may have failed to hold the beachhead.

If all of this is true (IF IF IF), then the deception surrounding Patton's command may have been instrumental in success.

Also, I have always heard that the battle of Midway was won because we broke the code and knew what was happening. If (IF IF IF) we had not, or had not trusted the code breakers, part of the fleet might have been elsewhere (Alaska?) fending off an attack from a fleet that was not there.

If so (IF IF IF), then 'fog of war' would be an interesting addition to the game. I have seen very few board games that have been able to implement this. The only substantial game that comes to mind is Victory Games' Vietnam, In it, the VC counters had a side that had no information other than 'VC might be here'. You had to attack to find out if it were a VC or a decoy.

I have even heard that during the darkest hours of the Battle of Britain, cardboard replicas of Fighters were set up near airfields to increase the enemy's estimate of air power.

I think Fog Of War in some fashion is an interesting concept to add to a computer game if for no other reason than it is generally impossible to do with a board game but easy to do with a computer game.

I think it should be tied to air superiority in an area. For example, if a bomber gets through to a hex, then certainly, there should be more information available from the hexes along the flight path.

I also think it might be interesting to spend an O-chit on deception (ala Patton).

Just ideas... What does everyone else think? Are they tenable? Are they usable? Will they destroy balance in the game?

Perhaps it could be possible to build decoy units at a minimum cost that do nothing but look like real units until attacked, whereupon they disappear. Since players will get used to seeing units with nothing but question marks on them (if that sort of FoW is implemented), they will be indistinguishable from real units except that they do not move, or move only one hex per phase - and that's being generous. This would simulate the sort of deception employed by the Alies prior to D-Day that was aimed at axis aerial recon. This could be a fairly substantial departure from WiF though, so I'm not sure if anything like this will make it into MWiF.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Anendrue »

Another great deception is how the British were able to deceive German and Italian forces into bombing empty desert at night by relocating the city of Suez and the canal each night. BTW they classified how this was accomplished under the 100 years secrets act. I sure hope I live that long as it would be interesting to find out how they relocated the Suez canal and an entire city every night. I would guess mirrors lights generators etc... Point is deception has long been a valid use by armed forces of any size.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Romulus68 »

While attending WiFcon we had a guest speaker, "Col. Vlass." (I think that was the spelling of his name) He lectured on the events of Germany's invasion of Russia in particular the situational reports. He has travelled extensibly to Germany and Russia and had ACTUAL copies of the reports used by the troops in the field. He stated that every unit had 50% of their troops assigned to recon at all times. He supplied us with sitreps of Germany and then sitreps of Russia at the same time intervals on the front. It was amazing how accurate they were. He went on to state they pretty much knew who was in front of them (unit names, troop estimates, readiness, etc).

Information past the "Front" was not as detailed, but they seemed to know where the Corps were located and coming from. Intel was acheived via spy planes, prisoners and spies in reference to troops coming from Siberia or the rear.

I think the Colonel is available to pick his brain. Would anyonne in the game design process like to contact him? He may provide some insight to the aspects of "Fog of War" from a realistic perspective.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Shannon V. OKeets »

ORIGINAL: Romulus68
While attending WiFcon we had a guest speaker, "Col. Vlass." (I think that was the spelling of his name) He lectured on the events of Germany's invasion of Russia in particular the situational reports. He has travelled extensibly to Germany and Russia and had ACTUAL copies of the reports used by the troops in the field. He stated that every unit had 50% of their troops assigned to recon at all times. He supplied us with sitreps of Germany and then sitreps of Russia at the same time intervals on the front. It was amazing how accurate they were. He went on to state they pretty much knew who was in front of them (unit names, troop estimates, readiness, etc).

Information past the "Front" was not as detailed, but they seemed to know where the Corps were located and coming from. Intel was acheived via spy planes, prisoners and spies in reference to troops coming from Siberia or the rear.

I think the Colonel is available to pick his brain. Would anyonne in the game design process like to contact him? He may provide some insight to the aspects of "Fog of War" from a realistic perspective.

Thanks for the report.

I do not have the time, personally, but would be very interested in hearing from the Col. or from someone who talks with him about Fog of War for Germany versus Russia. If we can model FOW in that theater of operations, it will probably be fairly accurate for the other theaters too.

Again, thanks - I'm interested in this - but I'm very busy.
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Neilster
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Neilster »

Well, German strategic intelligence of Russia before the invasion was awful. They underestimated the size of the Red Army by about a half and the number of Russian tanks by about two thirds. I've heard a conversation secretly recorded by the Finnish secret service in which Hitler states that if they knew Russia had 15 000 tanks, they never would have invaded.

There are numerous examples in WW2 of massive offensives being launched where those on the receiving end had almost no idea anything was up, let alone the strength of opposing units and follow-on forces. Barbarossa, the Moscow counter offensive, the encirclement at Stalingrad, almost all the Russian offensives after Jul 43, D Day and the Ardennes Offensive come to mind.

How the Axis would have any idea of the strength of individual units in the UK or the USA is beyond me.

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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Shannon V. OKeets »

ORIGINAL: Neilster
Well, German strategic intelligence of Russia before the invasion was awful. They underestimated the size of the Red Army by about a half and the number of Russian tanks by about two thirds. I've heard a conversation secretly recorded by the Finnish secret service in which Hitler states that if they knew Russia had 15 000 tanks, they never would have invaded.

There are numerous examples in WW2 of massive offensives being launched where those on the receiving end had almost no idea anything was up, let alone the strength of opposing units and follow-on forces. Barbarossa, the Moscow counter offensive, the encirclement at Stalingrad, almost all the Russian offensives after Jul 43, D Day and the Ardennes Offensive come to mind.

How the Axis would have any idea of the strength of individual units in the UK or the USA is beyond me.

Cheers, Neilster

Ok. But this doesn't invalidate what Romulus68 said in his post. To whit, when the frontlines were moving, both sides had a pretty good idea who was opposite them. All the situations you mention were either no-contact (e.g. D-Day) or fronts that had become rather static (even the Battle of the Bulge).

In any event, it appears that realism will have to take a back seat to making FOW an optional rule that is enjoyable to play. The difficulty in simulating the unknown (lack of intell) of the actual commanders is hopeless, given the retrospectif all the players will have.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Romulus68 »

I had his name wrong: Col (ret) David Glantz

wikipedia of Col David_Glantz

He has a long line of credentials as you can see. WifCon is currently under way and one of my game buddies is up there. I will try and get word to him and see if the Col will be there this year.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Ballista »

I saw him at HistoriCon back in July- he gave a very quick talk on Operation Zitadelle. Good stuff but he was rushed and had enough material to easily spend hours covering this subject.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by SurrenderMonkey »

ORIGINAL: Neilster

Well, German strategic intelligence of Russia before the invasion was awful. They underestimated the size of the Red Army by about a half and the number of Russian tanks by about two thirds. I've heard a conversation secretly recorded by the Finnish secret service in which Hitler states that if they knew Russia had 15 000 tanks, they never would have invaded.

There are numerous examples in WW2 of massive offensives being launched where those on the receiving end had almost no idea anything was up, let alone the strength of opposing units and follow-on forces. Barbarossa, the Moscow counter offensive, the encirclement at Stalingrad, almost all the Russian offensives after Jul 43, D Day and the Ardennes Offensive come to mind.

How the Axis would have any idea of the strength of individual units in the UK or the USA is beyond me.

Cheers, Neilster

It can be argued, of course, that the 'surprise' factor for a given offensive is achieved via the game mechanics - i.e., "Whoa - I didn't see that coming!"

For example, I have caught my Axis opponent with his pants down in '43 and landed in Brittany and Bordeax, then linked up and trapped several corps and established a viable second front, all because he didn't anticipate where I was GOING to be. Knowing where someone CURRENTLY IS in WiF is not as productive as knowing where he could possibly be (i.e., after movement, impulses, etc.) Same thing happens on the Eastern Front or the Med. IMHO, the FoW is sufficiently established in WiF via this dynamic.
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ezzler
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by ezzler »

I couldn't agree more with the posters who believe the FOW is sufficently established in WIF. It simply plays on a very large scale and FOW really doesn't apply .
 
Take the Battle of Britain. The fact there is 2 or 3 fighter counters in the Uk doesn't really change your options. You will either attack or you won't. And you may only have 5 - 6 units to fly anyway. And as only the front fighter or bomber counts in combat {effectively} knowing that there are 3 hurricanes or 2 hurricanes and a gladiator or 3 spitfires doesn't really matter.
Suprise is inbuilt in the rules with air / land and sea combats anyway.
 
The arguments for deception and decoy units are valid for discussion but as SurrenderMonkey points out it is the inability to know where your opponent will strike that is the core of the desicions you must make.
 
For example transports loaded with GI's in Dover COULD land in : Norway / Finland / France / Denmark /  Belgium / Holland / Portugal /Spain /Africa / or be shipped to the Pacific or to the Middle east etc.
The fact you can see that Denmark or Norway is lightly garrisoned doesn't mean you would attack there.
 
An earlier comment about Dummy units in England also applies. The fact you BELIEVE there to be extra troops in the UK doesn't mean that you would have extra garrisons in Europe, probably just your own dummies.
Afer all CBE 
{can't be everywhere}
 
And after all , if you are  playing with FOW would you launch an Invasion WITHOUT recon first?
 
 And what about Enigma and Purple and Magic . How is that to be modeled ? Or Rommels reading of the US embassy reports?
 
 I believe adding FOW would only mean adding Recon Air units / fast destroyer scouts / partisan intelligence / coastwatchers / Sub pickets / radio intercepts / Double Agents etc and only adding complexity to what is already one of the most complex games around without really adding to the game play.   
 
So if FOW is to be included please make it optional !!
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Shannon V. OKeets »

Oh, that it will be optional is certain. [:)]

It is only a question of when (MWIF product 1, 2, or 3) and what (the details of its implementation).
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by wosung »

To add another dimension to the AI/intelligence topic:

How to simulate "bad use" or "non-use" of intelligence? At least for playing against the AI.

Generally in WW2 there were two factors for not using intelligence:

1.Ideology:
Esp. (but not only) dictatorships relied more on their ideological world views then on intelligence:

-Stalin 1941 ("They won't attack. We give them allready all the ressources they need. They'll fight on the plutocrats")

-Hitler and the German Army 1941 ("The Red Army might be bigger than the German. Our logistics can only be stretched to cover 600 km depth. But we'll win. In six weeks it's over. Bolshewik subhumans can't fight.) in 1944/45 (estimated Red Army figures are "the biggest bluff since Dshinghiz Khan")

-Wester Allies 1941 ("These little yellow men hardly can fly. They won't fight us).

2. Not using intelligence for fear of outing the sources.


Some of the ideological factors of intelligence in WIF are modelled. But many ideological apects (that means "irrational actions" are not part of the game, for example:

-Hitlers non-retreat orders. (Only game I know this is modelled was the old Clash of Steel).

-Nazi unwillingness to prepare their production for total war until it was too late. (This could be simulated by connecting German production multipliers to German battlefield and terrain losses.)

-Japanese extreme offensive spirit, esp. in he first half of the war, the banzai charges. (This could be modelled by giving the Japanese ground forces higher attack than defense values).


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Neilster
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Neilster »

Re the FoW thing. The arguments expressed that there is a degree of it due to the game mechanics are valid but FoW would increase the unpredictability. If you've played CWiF with FoW you'll know that it forces you to play like a commander and not an accountant. Given that many (most?) playing groups have FoW house rules, to have none at all might actually make MWiF less like cardboard WiF.

I'm actually pretty relaxed about it but I detect in the anti-FoW camp the same whiff of WiF ([:'(]) fundamentalism that had people claiming that the single scale map would ruin the game.

MWiF provides an opportunity to introduce features that were impossible in WiF and that may seriously enhance the playing experience. FoW is a really great part of computer wargames and if we put anything like the effort that has gone into the map discussions into working out its nuances it shouldn't be too difficult to get it working. Well....apart from the actual programming it but that's not my problem [:D].

Anyhoo, I like to play Devil's advocate to ensure that ideas are explored. To be honest, I quite liked sorting through all the possible combinations to get that vital column shift.

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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by wfzimmerman »

ORIGINAL: Neilster

Re the FoW thing. The arguments expressed that there is a degree of it due to the game mechanics are valid but FoW would increase the unpredictability. If you've played CWiF with FoW you'll know that it forces you to play like a commander and not an accountant. Given that many (most?) playing groups have FoW house rules, to have none at all might actually make MWiF less like cardboard WiF.

I'm actually pretty relaxed about it but I detect in the anti-FoW camp the same whiff of WiF ([:'(]) fundamentalism that had people claiming that the single scale map would ruin the game.

MWiF provides an opportunity to introduce features that were impossible in WiF and that may seriously enhance the playing experience. FoW is a really great part of computer wargames and if we put anything like the effort that has gone into the map discussions into working out its nuances it shouldn't be too difficult to get it working. Well....apart from the actual programming it but that's not my problem [:D].

Anyhoo, I like to play Devil's advocate to ensure that ideas are explored. To be honest, I quite liked sorting through all the possible combinations to get that vital column shift.

Cheers, Neilster

Agree.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by ezzler »

Its a very good argument. Why not trial some new ideas for a computer game?

However as someone who always uses FOW in Witp , GGWAW , heart of iron , stategic command etc I still feel it is not for WIF. Mainly because the rules { which aren't changing} don't lend to it.

There is the constraint of Land / sea / air /mixed impulses first of all . In most other games you can move all your units to carry out probes , sail into harm etc
But in WIF number of combats , moves is limited each impulse. If it is necessary to carry out recons first then time is a wasting and I feel accomplishments each turn will suffer.
Wether 1 cruiser or the whole fleet sails its still a naval move and i just feel the number of opportunities for a mixed impulse will be less { who will be the commewnwealth now? }

If rules and play sequences were changing then prehaps FOW could really play a part.

That aside I don't really have a problem with being unable to see whats happening in the Mid-West or Newfoundland or beyond the Urals or the production spiral. its knowing if the philipines is fortified or deserted that matters and influences strategy decisions.

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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by mlees »

I have seen "strategy guides" that detail the "perfect move" to break open the French line in '40.

It details down to the last build point the builds Germany must do from game start. It details the position of each unit, and what hex it attacks. Each attack strength is calculated out to acheive x:1 or better.

This type of micrmanagement is a time honored part of the game. But it is a tad gamey, compared to the real life examples.

IRL, the commanders did not use "just enough" to get 4:1 odds. They used everything they could afford to bring. (Supply being a factor there.)

The time honored method has the advantage of producing (more or less) predictable and desirable results.

FOW would make attacks a little more of a gamble. For example, I could know that the Japanese has a land unit stationed in Truk. But not the combat value. Weak or strong? Better invade the hex like you mean it...
But in WIF number of combats , moves is limited each impulse. If it is necessary to carry out recons first then time is a wasting and I feel accomplishments each turn will suffer.

Well, we have the advantage of the computer doing all the calcs for us. What we could do is make recce a function of having units nearby:

Combattant Naval Units (non convoy/TRS) have a chance of reconnoitering the coastal areas the sea area touches.

Air units (including those on CV's, and those "flipped") have an innate ability to recon hexes within their air range, with a decreasing chance at longer and longer ranges.

Land units have a 2 or 3 hex recce range (to simulate observation planes).

This stuff can be modified by weather.

Now, we could do this a couple ways. FOW could mean that all units are hidden until "spotted". Or, unit positions are known, but their exact identity aren't known until spotted.

Combat reveals identity, of course.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Shannon V. OKeets »

ORIGINAL: mlees
I have seen "strategy guides" that detail the "perfect move" to break open the French line in '40.

It details down to the last build point the builds Germany must do from game start. It details the position of each unit, and what hex it attacks. Each attack strength is calculated out to acheive x:1 or better.

This type of micrmanagement is a time honored part of the game. But it is a tad gamey, compared to the real life examples.

IRL, the commanders did not use "just enough" to get 4:1 odds. They used everything they could afford to bring. (Supply being a factor there.)

The time honored method has the advantage of producing (more or less) predictable and desirable results.

FOW would make attacks a little more of a gamble. For example, I could know that the Japanese has a land unit stationed in Truk. But not the combat value. Weak or strong? Better invade the hex like you mean it...
But in WIF number of combats , moves is limited each impulse. If it is necessary to carry out recons first then time is a wasting and I feel accomplishments each turn will suffer.

Well, we have the advantage of the computer doing all the calcs for us. What we could do is make recce a function of having units nearby:

Combattant Naval Units (non convoy/TRS) have a chance of reconnoitering the coastal areas the sea area touches.

Air units (including those on CV's, and those "flipped") have an innate ability to recon hexes within their air range, with a decreasing chance at longer and longer ranges.

Land units have a 2 or 3 hex recce range (to simulate observation planes).

This stuff can be modified by weather.

Now, we could do this a couple ways. FOW could mean that all units are hidden until "spotted". Or, unit positions are known, but their exact identity aren't known until spotted.

Combat reveals identity, of course.
You are much closer to what I am thinking of doing: unit placement and type provides information on enemy units without explicit recon activity. Combat would expose exact unit numbers. This could be supplemented by some air missions providing additional intel as part of 'normal' mission activities. The devil is in the details though. And is it deterministic or probabilistic?
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by mlees »

And is it deterministic or probabilistic?

I am sorry. I dont know the difference between the two. Was the question rhetorical?

My main concern was to use some kind of process that didnt impact the mission activity limits.

Also of concern:

1) Should a player get free recce from all units, every impulse? Even if he passes? Or only units that are moved? Based on mission activity? (All land units search in a "Land" activity selection...) How about "flipped" units?

2) Is the info "carried over" the turn break into the next turn? (Like a "running tally".)

3) Once a unit is spotted, how does it become "unspotted"? Movement away from enemy forces?

All I can say is: Better you than me.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by Shannon V. OKeets »

ORIGINAL: mlees
And is it deterministic or probabilistic?

I am sorry. I dont know the difference between the two. Was the question rhetorical?

My main concern was to use some kind of process that didnt impact the mission activity limits.

Also of concern:

1) Should a player get free recce from all units, every impulse? Even if he passes? Or only units that are moved? Based on mission activity? (All land units search in a "Land" activity selection...) How about "flipped" units?

2) Is the info "carried over" the turn break into the next turn? (Like a "running tally".)

3) Once a unit is spotted, how does it become "unspotted"? Movement away from enemy forces?

All I can say is: Better you than me.

Deterministic means it can be determined exactly. The strength of an infantry unit is deterministic.
Probabilisitic means it depends on probability (rolling dice or drawing chits in the case of WIF). The land combat results table is probabilistic.

So what I was asking is whether under certain circumstances is the player guaranteed getting/not getting intel information? If you do this, you can learn about the enemy units. If you do that, you can be assured that the enemy doesn't know about your units. If actions produce the same intel every time, it is deterministic. If die rolling is involved, then it is probabilistic.

Your questions are good ones (also mentioned by others earlier). The only way to do this is using the same process as for any of the game design decisions. You take them one at a time and decide. Occasionally several of them need to be decided as a group. It is essential to have a theory/philosophy when you start out so that all the little decisions along the way can be weighed against the philosophy for this aspect of the game design. It takes time and effort to do it right. And a lot of play test to really understand the innumerable interactions this would create.
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

Post by ezzler »

You know , I feel I am being won round to your case.

Hidden values and strength points is no bad thing.

My major worry was not knowing where UNITS were and running into unseen ZOC's or finding that the one territorial in Afica has suddenly emeged in Addis Abbaba and caused a huge loss of territory because you never knew it was there.

The idea of not being able to spot all those 2nd defence lines of juicy targets { like flipped HQ and air } may prevent some of those armour / cavalry rushes on the final impulses.

As long as the position of all the units was known then the exact details could come out in the combat.

Still , keep it optional !!
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