PBEM AAR - It Ain't a Lost Cause Yet!

[Gil R.]

But this turn, I already had 100 Money, so I built an artillery unit (and next turn I'll get myself another). I produce it in Norfolk, where I had earlier built the Manufacturing Center (which cuts one turn off the time to completion, so that it will be ready in seven turns), and where I have three Foundries, each of which adds to the unit's quality. My plan is to build this and the other artillery unit, and the following turn produce a new cavalry unit, or else two new infantry brigades.

I also purchase Brigade Artillery for another brigade in the 1st Corps, since that force will be engaging in battle this coming turn or the next one. (I do this after making sure that I would have the 100 Money next turn needed for that second artillery unit.)

I also produce another Raiders unit in Chattanooga, knowing that two turns from now, when I might want to produce more cavalry, I would again have the 100 Horses I would need.

I then hit "End Turn," and have some great upgrades from which to choose. "Hasty Entrenchments" would give me an advantage in battle, but since the Union has siege artillery and gunboats, plus engineers (I think), plus some siege-related upgrades I think it's more important to counter that somewhat. So, I go with "Siege Techniques," which slows the rate of damage to forts/cities and therefore lets them survive longer. ("Fortification Techniques" would have helped my garrisons survive longer, but my thinking is that if a city/fort gets down to 0% strength it doesn't matter how strong its brigades were at the time its fortifications were completely degraded.)

So when the next siege comes, my forces will probably have an extra turn or two in which to drive off the enemy and lift the siege.

[Gil R.]

Thirty-third Turn

Jchastain is still on vacation for a few more days, but we've all waited too long for this PBEM game to restart. I can't do anything until he takes his turn and sends me the files, but what I can do is take the files I sent him, hit "End Turn" to generate the files that I would get from him (minus the stored information regarding his new moves), and then open those files as if I'm taking my turn... which at least lets us all see how things turned out from last turn.

So, I'm going to post the Event Report plus a view of where our forces now are out in the western theater. Once I get the PBEM files through official channels I'll show much more, of course. I hope this can tide you all over for a few more days...

First, the siege in Tallahassee went nowhere this past turn, and the city was actually able to rebuild its fortifications. (And, as you'll see in the next screenshot, the siege is now over.)

I chose Siege Techniques I last turn, but it looks like the USA got Fortification Techniques I, which means that we both equally improved our abilities to besiege or be besieged. Obviously, it's unfortunate that the USA got lucky and got another siege-related upgrade, especially since a new siege is about to begin (see below).

Moving on to battles, my small, one-brigade division in Lower Tennessee River avoided battle with what must have been Sherman's army as it moved from Hatchie to Cumberland River. That division would have been demolished had it been forced to fight, but I'll now be able to use it to cut off supplies to the Union invaders (see below).

More importantly, my attempt to head off the Union's advance into Tennessee by way of northern Alabama by sending the 1st Corps into Huntsville worked brilliantly. Remember, as can be seen in the previous turn, the Union had an army and a corps in Tuscumbia, but instead of going into that province and fighting in Union territory I sent my corps into Huntsville, which looked to be part of their invasion route, and as the screenshot below shows, they seem to have blundered right into my corps of 50,000 men under Hood, and got trounced. (The disproportionate casualty figures are at least in part caused by the fact that this corps has a few brigades armed with Lorenzs, plus some sharpshooters, and all or most of the brigades have been trained in one or more special abilities by their generals. Not to mention the fact that many of these are very good units, and the Union has been relying on packing its army with lots of inferior units.)

[Gil R.]

Moving on, we get to some very good news indeed: on its second try, my division of about 10,000 men in Tallahassee managed to defeat the Union corps there soundly, leaving all of the enemy brigades -- including two legendary units -- to surrender, which then caused the officers of the two divisions and corps itself to surrender, meaning that the Union invading force is completely gone. The only downside to this is that none of the surrendering forces dropped any weapons that would be an improvement over the ones the CSA brigades already had. (Actually, there's another downside: the Union won't have to spend all that money on upkeep and supply costs for this corps now.)

Moving on, four new generals -- two of whom are very good -- are now available, as is another Railroad Station. Over the last several turns I was sometimes a few railroad movement points short of what I needed, so this will help tremendously.

[Gil R.]

Now for some very bad news, though it certainly could have been worse: after dodging serious disease for some time now, the Army of Northern Virginia just got hit, losing around 3000 men. Fortunately, it's in Lynchburg, which has two hospitals, and the "Nursing Corps" upgrade that I picked last turn makes those hospitals 50% more efficient (i.e., it's as if I have three hospitals there). So, this means that I didn't take nearly as many casualties as I might have if the ANV had been in Abingdon or Fredericksburg, and also that fewer brigades had their Disposition lowered. Furthermore, since Lee and his generals have been boosting the army's Disposition for some time now, only a single brigade was lowered to "Low Disposition," which the others that were affected -- roughly half of the brigades in the army -- only went down to "Normal" or "Inspired." What this means is that this force is still very potent, despite the multiple brigades with lowered Disposition levels.

Oh, heck, the JPEG is too big -- 211KB!!! So, I can't post the screenshot. When I get the files from jchastain I'll try to take another screenshot and post it then. But based on what I wrote you can use your imagination...

[Gil R.]

(Note that the tail end of the list of casualties from disease is shown. Of particular importance is that my one artillery unit, the Jeff Davis Battery, didn't lose any Disposition.)

Diplomatic efforts with England and Other Europeans are paying off in terms of raised support levels -- now I just wish those countries would give me something tangible to make me not regret spending a combined 100 Money on them turn after turn, when that could be used for Academies, research institutions, new artillery and cavalry brigades, etc. In fact, I'm starting to think I'd be better off not investing so heavily in diplomacy. But of course, I won't feel that way once I start buying some more Lorenzs a few turns from now...

Not much else to note here that hasn't been seen before, so I'll move on to showing Tennessee.

[Gil R.]

Now this is where it gets really good. Just look at what's going on. Jackson's army moved into Oxford, retaking the province for the CSA, while Hood's corps, as discussed above, went from Sparta to Huntsville and beat back the Union's incursion. The Union's forces therefore are still in Tuscumbia, though they've lost 19000 men, and are surrounded by two vastly superior forces, AND they're cut off from supplies and therefore after losing that battle must be getting close to exhausting their supplies. (Losing a battle costs every brigade 5 Supply, whereas winning a battle costs just 3 Supply. If these forces lose another battle they'll all be at 0 Supply, and start to fall apart. Furthermore, units that are at 5 Supply or less suffer a -2 penalty in Quick Combat, and PBEM battles are fought as QC -- so, even brigades that were fully supplied before the battle in Huntsville will all be fighting with a penalty if I can engage these forces in battle before they get resupplied.)

That's the good news. The bad news is that Cumberland River and the capital of Tennessee, Nashville, are the Union's primary target in the western theater. If Nashville falls, I won't lose much in the way of buildings (2 Mints are the most valuable buildings there, since I deliberately avoid putting important buildings such as camps and research institutions in cities that risk invasion). However, with my capital taken I would lose an enormous amount of resources from Tennessee.

Unfortunately, I can remember several turns ago when that army that was up in Bowling Green (and is now in Cumberland River) began a siege, and in a single turn managed to do tremendous damage to the defenses of Fort Donelson. What my garrisons in the fort and Nashville itself are now facing is Sherman's army of roughly 100,000 men, plus that other army that has siege artillery (which Sherman might also have, though I haven't yet seen evidence of it), plus the Union's gunboats. And let's not forget that the Union has siege-related upgrades. My guess is that even though Fort Donelson is well-garrisoned it can now be taken in just two turns, whereupon Nashville would be taken in at most two turns.

This leaves me with some choices to make, though I think my options are pretty obvious: while I could take the forces under Jackson and Hood and head straight for Cumberland River, almost certainly reaching it before Fort Donelson falls, I can't miss out on the chance to first utterly demolish the Union forces in Tuscumbia, which are inferior, demoralized, and outnumbered almost 3-to-1. My calculation is that if I can catch these forces this turn -- i.e., I make the necessary initiative check and can get to them before they can escape -- I could still get all of my forces in the area to Cumberland River in time to attack Sherman before Nashville falls. Of course, I'm not guaranteed that Jackson will defeat Sherman, but there's a good chance of it, especially since we'll have about the same number of troops but mine are superior and led by better generals, and they'll be fighting in CSA territory. Furthermore, now that Florida is free of the enemy I can send that division down there by rail to Tennessee, so that two turns from now it's also ready to assist.

Of course, the Union forces in Tuscumbia can't be expected to sit there waiting to be attacked, so I'll need to ponder whether to try to go straight into the province, or perhaps think with the enemy and move my forces to where I think they're headed. Another decision to make is where to send my smallest divisions so that they can best cut off supplies to Cumberland River. (Speaking of supplies, next turn those Raiders in Chattanooga will be ready; for now, they're just a small pink chit.)

I'll discuss my options more once I get the actual PBEM files. I can already see some pretty clever things I can do.

[Gil R.]

I just added in an extra comment regarding those surrounded forces in Tuscumbia. So that anyone who already read that post doesn't miss it, here it is:

...AND they're cut off from supplies and therefore after losing that battle must be getting close to exhausting their supplies. (Losing a battle costs every brigade 5 Supply, whereas winning a battle costs just 3 Supply. If these forces lose another battle they'll all be at 0 Supply, and start to fall apart. Furthermore, units that are at 5 Supply or less suffer a -2 penalty in Quick Combat, and PBEM battles are fought as QC -- so, even brigades that were fully supplied before the battle in Huntsville will all be fighting with a penalty if I can engage these forces in battle before they get resupplied.)

[genie144]

Well thank you for the update.  With the other thread ended with a Union defeat, I am waiting anxiously to see how yours turns out.  It seems the best way to play this game is going to PBEM.  Now all I need is another week to pass and I will get the game
 
Sam

[Gil R.]

Okay, the moment is here... I actually got to take my turn!

First, let me post the missing screenshot from the Event Report, showing the disease that hit the ANV.

[Gil R.]

Next, here's the Battle Report from the fighting in Florida and Alabama. The top, showing the fighting in Huntsville, shows that only one of my units gained some new weapons -- but more importantly, it shouws that four different USA brigades were only armed with "Improvised" weapons. This makes me wonder just what the Union, with all of its Money, Iron and Guns, has been purchasing, if it's sending out into battle units that are this poorly equipped. This also gives me hope...

[Gil R.]

And here's the Supply Report. (I wish I had remembered earlier in this AAR that one can expand the reports to fill up the screen simply by hitting that 'X' at the top.)

As you might recall, last turn I decided to put all of my divisions on "No Supply" so that my replacement troops from the Camps would go into garrisons instead. This was necessary because many garrisons had been affected by disease or battle, and also because it's clear that some more sieges are in the Union's plans. As this report shows, a number of garrisons were indeed strengthened (including those in Jackson, which were recently besieged by the Union). The bad news is that since the Union's forces entered Cumberland River this turn none of the garrison units in Fort Donelson or Nashville could be reinforced. (Note the lone '0' is for Cumberland River.) This is unfortunate timing, since those two garrisons more than any other clearly needed reinforcement, and now it will be that much easier for the Union to take Fort Donelson and Nashville, if my mobile forces are unable to relieve them.

[Gil R.]

Here's how Florida looks, now that the Union forces have been destroyed. (The Union siegeworks will be gone by next turn. As the tool-tip shows, there are no enemy forces in the province.)

This invasion was costly, in that each turn that the Union was present in Tallahassee I lost income in Labor and Horses. This is also true of Jackson. In fact, the two combined add up to an income of 10 Labor and 7 Horses each turn, meaning that I lost roughly the cost of a Plantation, or more than half of a new Partisans unit. So even if I didn't lose either city, I did still lose something.

[Gil R.]

And here's Virginia. Of particular note is that the Union army seems to have lost more than 10,000 men. Now that might just be a trick of fog-of-war, but if next turn I'm getting a similar reading this might indicate that that army was hit by disease and, lacking the benefit of a hospital, lost an enormous amount of strength.

But of course my own army was just hit by disease and is down to 73,000, which isn't enough to assure victory if I attack now. But I'm going to watch this, and if next turn the Union still seems to be down around 60,000 I'm going to attack soon thereafter, figuring that my forces have a much better disposition (as discussed above). Unfortunately, events out West, coupled with the need to save my resources to produce some new units over the next two turns, lead me to decide to keep the entire ANV off supply, which means that it will not get any replacement troops. Next turn, however, I might be able to send a few thousand men its way.

Also of note is that what's left of the Union navy made it into port, apparently in Anapolis.

[Gil R.]

The Union might think it's safe there, but it's not. I bring my own fleet up to the Virginian Atlantic sea zone and then initiate a blockade of Anapolis coupled with a port attack. (Note settings at bottom.)

A harbor attack will force the Union fleet to fight me, and if I'm lucky I can further degrade it. And if I'm unlucky, then it's not the end of the world if this ahistorical (but fun) imbalance between the USA and CSA fleets is partly rectified. And I might be unlucky, because the defender gets some very significant bonuses during port attacks.

[Gil R.]

Now back to the best part: the western theater. Here's another screenshot.

As noted above, the key to victory is to cut off supplies to the invading forces in Cumberland River and to demolish the Union forces in Tuscumbia. If I can do both this turn, then I have two turns in which to get my forces ready to enter Cumberland River and drive off the larger Union forces there. (If, instead, I try to make right for Cumberland River then I'm letting these forces in Tuscumbia, which are nearly out of supply and significantly weakened after their recent defeat, to live to fight another day. So I have to risk losing Fort Donelson in order to attempt to reduce the Union's forces out west by roughly 25%.)

Cutting off supplies to Cumberland River should be easy enough, and I'll be able to do it in a way that the Union's probably not expecting (see below). Also, I will of course send that Raiders unit right into the province to start destroying supplies. Plus, over in Chattanooga that pink chit represents another Raiders unit that will be ready next turn, and able to plunge into Cumberland River as well.

The more difficult task will be engaging in battle with the Tuscumbia forces, since I do not know where they are headed, and therefore have to guess. The logical thing is for the Union to send them in the direction of Cumberland River, so that there will be strength in numbers. Doing that would require heading straight north, defeating my tiny division, and entering Pulaski. But the Union knows I know this, and might try to be clever and head southward -- the one place I'm not going to send my armies now because I want them to be able to relieve Nashville. If the Union makes this clever move, though, it will be heading farther away from its own territory and will find it even harder to keep these units supplied. So it could be suicidal, since the Union's leadership knows that I'm fully capable of trying to cut off supplies. One thing the Union might try is to send this force into Selma in order to besiege the city -- forcing me to choose between losing Selma and losing Nashville. That, however, would be a no-brainer, since Nashville is the state capital and if I lose it I lose an enormous amount of income from Tennessee.

So what I'm going to do is take one shot at these Union forces with my corps under Hood and army under Jackson. If I guess wrongly an miss, I will send these forces to Cumberland River, leaving the escaped Union forces for another day. Those forces, if all goes well, will remain cut off from fresh supplies for at least another turn and therefore will begin to suffer major attrition. (Remember: every time units move one province they lose a level of supply, and some of these Union units must be out of supply or close to it.) Also, now that Florida has been saved I'm going to send that division of 10,000 men by rail into this theater, so within a turn or two they'll be able to pursue what's left of these Union forces.

[Gil R.]

So, here's what I do.

First, remember that dratted 2nd Division that turn after turn would refuse to retake CSA territory in western Virginia? Well, it turns out to be a blessing that it never went where I wanted it to, since it's now two provinces away from Bowling Green -- and the Union's railroad line there. I set the division to "forced march" to give it a better chance of getting there, and send it in. If it does reach Bowling Green I will be cutting off supplies to Cumberland River from that direction, leaving Lower Tennessee River as the other province that the Union must control to avoid running out of supplies.

(Note that the two generals in Knoxville are two of the four what just appeared this turn. I'm sending them out to join up with the western forces.

[Gil R.]

Next, I send in the Raiders. If I succeed in getting the Union's supplies cut off I will greatly help my cause if I can destroy their supplies as well. That way, when I attack in 1-2 turns I will have a definite advantage.

[Gil R.]

Next, here's what I've got in Cumberland River. It's not enought to last for too long, especially with the Union being superior in terms of siege techniques (= upgrades), siege artillery, gunboats, and engineers.

But at least Fort Donelson has that Bombproof I purchased for it, which negates critical hits. That could help the fort to hold out a bit longer. (It also has Rifle Pits, which increase the damage done by its garrisons, but facing an army of more than 100,000 that makes no difference.)

[Gil R.]

Next, as part of my goal of cutting off supplies both to Cumberland River and the Union's forces in Alabama, I send the 6th Division by rail from Jackson into Hatchie. This will prevent the Tuscumbia forces from getting back into rail supply easily, and will also help cut off rail supplies into Cumberland River (in case one of the other divisions there is chased off or fails to get into position).

I had been intending to use this division to retake the Arkansas-Mississippi River province from the Union, but can't, so I continue to lose out on potential income from that province each turn.

[Gil R.]

Next, and the Union might not have expected this, I take a small division of about 2000-3000 men out of Jackson's army and send them by rail into Lower Tennessee River. If they get there they will be cutting off supplies to the Union from that direction. If both this division and the one heading to Bowling Green get to their destinations then the Union forces besieging Fort Donelson will not be in-supply.