AI for MWiF - Japan

[composer99]

The downside that occurs to me is that if the counter-strike units are in port, you can't use the O-chit in a land action, whereas if they are at sea already, the US might go after them & get lucky; I suppose you could use it in a supercombined, which you might need to get all the pieces in place for the counter attack.
 
That aside, I agree completely that the Japanese must have an effective counter-strike force available at all times to try to blunt the US attack by destroying its units after an invasion. Ideally, the Japanese can follow up their next impulse by evacuating their counter-strike force and shuttling in a new garrison. The key targets are US HQs, marines, paras & engineers.

[brian brian]

On the Pacific scale map it was at times worth using the intial O-Chit to take an important Chinese objective like Chunking or Kunming, which would only be possible after bad Chinese play or a whole lot of good luck. On the new map I don't think China will ever be worth an O-Chit.

Japanese strategy is fascinating, with a number of options available to them. I think it should be co-ordinated with Germany at a high level.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

On the Pacific scale map it was at times worth using the intial O-Chit to take an important Chinese objective like Chunking or Kunming, which would only be possible after bad Chinese play or a whole lot of good luck. On the new map I don't think China will ever be worth an O-Chit.

Japanese strategy is fascinating, with a number of options available to them. I think it should be co-ordinated with Germany at a high level.

In what way?

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: brian brian

On the Pacific scale map it was at times worth using the intial O-Chit to take an important Chinese objective like Chunking or Kunming, which would only be possible after bad Chinese play or a whole lot of good luck. On the new map I don't think China will ever be worth an O-Chit.

Japanese strategy is fascinating, with a number of options available to them. I think it should be co-ordinated with Germany at a high level.

In what way?

I suppose he means about the all out attack on the Russian or on the CW.

[composer99]

On the new map scale it should be easier for Japan to attack the USSR along the Trans-Siberian rail from Vladivostok to Chita now that the HQs can move hexes without automatically flipping.

Getting further than that should still prove to be difficult.

From a tactical consideration, how would the Japanese, say, try to capture Irkutsk? It seems to me that getting this city is absolutely key if the Japanese are going to be at all effective in an anti-Russian campaign; for otherwise they have no hope of getting further.

My own impression is that the Japanese would be best off resorting to a paradrop into or near the city and catching up later with overland forces. Risky and perilous for the expensive units involved.

The other thing is that a major land commitment outside of China and Japan's regular overseas defence perimeter seems like a dangerous case of overstretch.

Plus you can almost certainly forget about seizing somewhere like India or Australia.

[Neilster]

ORIGINAL: composer99

On the new map scale it should be easier for Japan to attack the USSR along the Trans-Siberian rail from Vladivostok to Chita now that the HQs can move hexes without automatically flipping.

Getting further than that should still prove to be difficult.

From a tactical consideration, how would the Japanese, say, try to capture Irkutsk? It seems to me that getting this city is absolutely key if the Japanese are going to be at all effective in an anti-Russian campaign; for otherwise they have no hope of getting further.

My own impression is that the Japanese would be best off resorting to a paradrop into or near the city and catching up later with overland forces. Risky and perilous for the expensive units involved.

The other thing is that a major land commitment outside of China and Japan's regular overseas defence perimeter seems like a dangerous case of overstretch.

Plus you can almost certainly forget about seizing somewhere like India or Australia.

Here's what the WiF scenario booklet has to say (with the caveat that things are different at the new scale)...

This second wave is your primary strategic decision to make. Your options are: India, Australia and New Zealand, or Honolulu. All are difficult campaigns, and it is highly unlikely that you will be successful if you try to switch from one to the other in mid stream. It is not even likely that you will succeed at the campaign you choose! For this reason, conservative Japanese players might follow a fourth option based purely on perimeter defense.
The attack on India is both the most difficult and potentially the most rewarding. This campaign should only be undertaken with solemn promises from your European allies that they are making the control of the Suez Canal a top priority. If it is, your campaign will be complementary. The Japanese navy can easily cut overseas supply through the Red and Arabian Seas to help the Axis take Egypt, and the pressure on the Commonwealth in the Med will divert reinforcements to that theater, and probably prevent the Allies from slipping reinforcements into India via the Mediterranean. While getting ashore in India is easy, getting to Delhi is difficult. Simply put, Japan will have to make a very large commitment of land troops to push inland, and at the same time will need to maintain an iron blanket blockade around India to prevent outside help, all while keeping the Americans busy in the eastern Pacific!
Your first goals in this strategy must be to take Ceylon, get ashore in India, probably south and west of Calcutta, and possibly even to push some units overland from Siam through Burma, to press Calcutta from both sides. With your naval superiority, you should be able to take Calcutta and Ceylon. After that, though, it is up to the IJA to attack inland, and this will be very difficult. If you try to conquer India, you must make a maximum commitment to doing so, paring all other theaters, especially China, down to the bare minimum ground troops. If you succeed, and the Axis conquer Egypt, you will link up in the Middle East and divide the rich oil fields between you!
An attack on Australia is like India in many ways. It is easy to get ashore, and grabbing Brisbane should be feasible. By the time you are able to press southwards however, the Americans will be getting very pesky on your flanks, and quite possibly they will be able to maintain sea communications to south eastern Australia. More importantly, they will be able to threaten your vital sea lines in the South China and China Seas.
One possibility for Japan is to invade and conquer New Zealand first. This will give the Aussies more time to prepare, but it may do a better job of securing your blockade in the region. Either of these courses for the Australasia campaign will stretch your navy to its fullest, because your supply lines will be long, your fleet will be needed for offensive operations against your target, and your main opponent, the US navy, will be free to attack you.
If you are able to take Honolulu, you will be able to interrupt overseas communications between the United States and the rest of the Pacific Ocean, which can have numerous benefits.
The best approach to Honolulu is to invade some of the hexes to its west, probably including Midway. This will give you vital air bases to project power into the Hawaiian Islands and Christmas Island sea zones. The only way you can take Honolulu itself is to cut off its supply, and you must dominate all three sea zones to do this ~ no easy task. However, a dedicated attempt to do so is sure to draw American forces into battle on terms presumably of your choosing. Make the most of the battle and don’t let a Midway-like disaster happen to you!
The fourth option is one of strategic defense. This calls for setting up a strong defensive perimeter and husbanding your fleet and air forces. Your perimeter must include all of the islands in and adjacent to the South China Sea, the Bismarck Sea, and the Marianas. It should also include as many other ports adjacent to the Marshalls, the Solomons, the Coral Sea, the Timor Sea, and the Bay of Bengal as possible.
This second layer of sea zones brings you into conflict, as they are defended, and many (i.e., Honolulu, India, Australia) are not really part of this strategy at all. However, some minor ports which are strategically located should be secured; nab as many of Midway, Suva, Espiritu Santo, Guadalcanal, Port Moresby, Portuguese East Timor, Colombo and Trincomalee as you can. Additionally, an overland seizure of Burma will grab you another oil resource and provide excellent defensive terrain to forestall Allied overland attacks out of India.
If this strategy sounds familiar, it is because it is pretty much what the Japanese historically pursued (by default or design). Their original war plans were almost exactly these. Don’t commit the same mistakes they did by dividing your forces and trying to pursue too many of the secondary campaigns at once! Keep your forces focused, especially since you are not directly hunting the American fleet, which might counterattack at any moment.


Cheers, Neilster

[brian brian]

I don't mean only in terms of an all-out effort against one of the two possible Allied powers, but also in terms of timing, possibilites, and dangers for Japan. The big variables are whether Germany plans on being at war with Russia in 1941 or 1942. Another big question is whether Germany is even going to attempt a Sea Lion. Or attempt to expand in the Mediterranean at all. However Germany answers these questions has a big effect on what Japan can do and when they can do it. If Germany is planning a full Barbarossa kicking off in early 41 with a lot of Italian participation, Japan knows the odds of fighting a Soviet initiated war are much, much lower, but conversely the CW could be able to resist it somewhat more stoutly. If Germany plans to fight it's way through Spain to take Gibraltar and then invade the UK, Japan can expect to see Russian deployments in the Far East and also a weak CW in front of it. Japan can't operate in a vacuum. Most likely, a German player is going to select their main strategy and Japan can perhaps influence this choice somewhat (moreso when playing Japan & Italy together), but ultimately it is German decisions that Japan absolutely must consider.

[brian brian]

The new map also means Japan has to re-write it's strategic thinking more than all other powers. Japan just doesn't have the army for large inland campaigns. An ill-timed war with Russia now will never end. Even if Japan could take Chita, they still face the original three Russian cities beyond Chita and at least one new one that can operate in their rear. Now these cities can also trace to Russian oil elsewhere on the map via the WiF rules system and operate air, naval, and armored forces. There is no reason at all for Russia to ever surrender and come to peace with Japan, so a Japan that wanted to gain at their expense might consider taking what can be had in the immediate vicinity of Vladivostok and then prepare to garrison whatever they can get as well as all of their holdings in Manchuria and the transport links to them because the Russian cavalry will soon be buzzing around. Even in Japan's best case scenario for such a war, concurrent with a 41 Barbarossa, a few cheap Russian units, one per city, will keep Japan busy for a long time in the Arctic Zone and again a few cavalry units (1 BP divisions, nearly worthless anywhere near the Germans) will be constantly threatening their flanks.

Like composer99 said, there is no realistic hope of campaigning in India. Australia is perhaps still doable, but more difficult now. Burma? I don't see much point either, beyond protecting the approaches to Bangkok.

It also seems highly unlikely that even an all out effort could ever conquer China; as Japan leaves the coast behind they would have a great deal of trouble keeping their supply routes open and China has access to cheap cavalry as well.

I'm not saying all these are bad things, they are just perhaps inevitable things with the new scale, and for the most part realistic things anyway.

So I think Japanese strategy should be completely coastal, i.e. what can they get near a coast and how can they hold it later. I hate to even think about how many land hexes now border the South China Sea.

And I could be wrong...I look forward to finding out.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I don't mean only in terms of an all-out effort against one of the two possible Allied powers, but also in terms of timing, possibilites, and dangers for Japan. The big variables are whether Germany plans on being at war with Russia in 1941 or 1942. Another big question is whether Germany is even going to attempt a Sea Lion. Or attempt to expand in the Mediterranean at all. However Germany answers these questions has a big effect on what Japan can do and when they can do it. If Germany is planning a full Barbarossa kicking off in early 41 with a lot of Italian participation, Japan knows the odds of fighting a Soviet initiated war are much, much lower, but conversely the CW could be able to resist it somewhat more stoutly. If Germany plans to fight it's way through Spain to take Gibraltar and then invade the UK, Japan can expect to see Russian deployments in the Far East and also a weak CW in front of it. Japan can't operate in a vacuum. Most likely, a German player is going to select their main strategy and Japan can perhaps influence this choice somewhat (moreso when playing Japan & Italy together), but ultimately it is German decisions that Japan absolutely must consider.

Thanks. That answers my question.

[brian brian]

On another hand ... Japan does have the army for a large inland campaign. It's just that it starts out with this army already engaged in China. Japan does have the strategic option of disengaging somewhat from China and then using it's army elsewhere. The question is how much will this come back to haunt it later? What can it gain meanwhile before the Chinese get too strong? Stilwell on the coast is a scary thing.

Perhaps the new map gives Japan some new defensive capabilities...build a Mech and an Arm division, pair them up with a couple Motorized divisions and some solid INF/MIL, then wait for the Chinese to step out into the clear terrain.

[lomyrin]

Based on CWiF experience Japan has had a relatively easy time to grab and hold much if not all of China on a map of this scale without the extra cities.

The extra cities will in my opinion change the power balance in China substantially and I believe will result in a Japan that is a bit weaker than it has been in CWiF games. Now that may be a good effect and give the USA a better chance of stopping Japan a little earlier than usual.

Likewise in Manchuria the extra Russian City northeast of Blag and not on a rail line may give Russia a better chance of retaking or at least harassing a Japan that has taken out Vladivostok and surroundings. As a minimum it would need a larger Japanese garrison force to maintain control there. This too may weaken Japan a little.

Lars

[composer99]

I'm not so sure that the cities will help China that much given they don't start with any extra army.

Edit:

This has been discussed extensively & is a resolved issue if memory serves. I am not trying to re-open it.

Also, as the main purpose of the extra cities is to solve supply problems for China, it should help them defend in the mountain lines easier.

What the Japanese may need to do on the new map scale is decide where their "stop line" is in China, then prepare a defence & counter strike force for when the Chinese try to get antsy, as brian suggested.

This should serve them well until 43 when the pressures from the Western Allies combine with those from the Chinese start to overwhelm the Japanese in terms of action limits.

[wfzimmerman]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

On another hand ... Japan does have the army for a large inland campaign. It's just that it starts out with this army already engaged in China. Japan does have the strategic option of disengaging somewhat from China and then using it's army elsewhere. The question is how much will this come back to haunt it later? What can it gain meanwhile before the Chinese get too strong? Stilwell on the coast is a scary thing.

Perhaps the new map gives Japan some new defensive capabilities...build a Mech and an Arm division, pair them up with a couple Motorized divisions and some solid INF/MIL, then wait for the Chinese to step out into the clear terrain.

That's a really good observation. It seems like there are an awful lot of units invested in China relative to the benefit of being there. How about giving the AI a "no-China" strategy (low prob). COuld those units be better invested in going for the victory cities in the outer ring?

[wfzimmerman]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets



Other Objectives
Those free invasions should be made by DIV on SCS if the places are undefended (to make the USA lose time when they return).∙ Midway if not garrisoned. It is a valuable airbase for the US comeback.
∙ Dutch Harbor if not garrisoned (Objective).
∙ Pago Pago if not garrisoned (Objective).
∙ Wake Island if not garrisoned. It is a decent airbase for the US comeback.
∙ Columbo if not garrisoned (Objective).

Seems like you'd want to be careful about the way you program this. Timing is important. These attacks could easily be quixotic ventures by the AI if conducted without reference to the overall strategic situation (too early or too late). but if conducted at just the right moment they could also be deadly. These sorts of attacks are also opportunities for the human opponent to mousetrap the AI into doing something predictable.

[composer99]

Most of Japan's free invasions will take place during the surprise impulse vs. the Western Allies, so timing is not an issue (they all take place at around the same time). But all of Japan's offensive invasions should be made in reference to where it is attacking.
 
Also, to clarify an earlier point on this thread:
- In my post #45 when I mention India & Australia being out of the question as options, I mean in the context of a Sino-Soviet war with heavy Japanese commitment.
 
As long as the Japanese commit a big enough force they should be able to conquer India. Indeed, it should be easier at the new map scale to press inland because it is harder to be bottled up on the beachhead. They will probably need to commit more units than in WiF:FE because of the longer supply lines that need to be protected, though.
 
The same basically applies to Australia, especially because the Allies' land units must defend so much more territory.

[SemperAugustus]

What should the Japanese AI do if Germany pursues a France '39 or Barossa '40 strategy?

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: SemperAugustus

What should the Japanese AI do if Germany pursues a France '39 or Barossa '40 strategy?

Curse the Germans ? [:D]

[Kaletsch2007]

ORIGINAL: SemperAugustus

What should the Japanese AI do if Germany pursues a France '39 or Barossa '40 strategy?

In my opinion, Japan and German/Italien AI strategy should not be combined before spring/summer '41, because of historical political facts.
Starting in early '41 the AI may check (depending on GER/ITA success) the possibility for a siberian compaign, to grap a piece of the cake.

[brian brian]

I think Japan is becoming my favorite country to play. The US can crack open the egg any time it really wants. The question is, where is Sam going first? What has it got in it'ss pockets? Do you feel lucky?

Japan has excellent pieces on land, sea, and air. They have more strategic options than the other two Axis countries. Tactically they will participate frequently in every WiF rules system but with a low counter density. A few good rolls and you have a couple easy turns to enjoy, with a definite converse to that of course.

France '39 should change Japan's thinking little. If it works you still need to think more about Germany's long-term goal, which could still be one of: beat CW/beat USSR/sitz. If it fails things are still the same as Germany will have no choice but to battle forward in 1940 and what is more important to Japan is where Germany goes after France, not what happens in France.

Barbarossa '40 sounds like fun and I hope to try it sometime for that reason. Japan would have to either go 'all-in' with that immediately, maybe lay-out for a while and wait until Russia is even busier in 1941, or just ignore what crazy Adolph is doing over there and hope for a successful China campaign to maintain flexibility until you see what happens.

[Kaletsch2007]

[quote]ORIGINAL: brian brian

I think Japan is becoming my favorite country to play. The US can crack open the egg any time it really wants. The question is, where is Sam going first? What has it got in it'ss pockets? Do you feel lucky?

Couldn't agree more[:D]