PzB vs Wobbly - Clash of Steel

[PzB74]

Aahh, server timed out and I wasn't even logged in anymore [X(]
Good thing I always copy out the text before posting. Takes time with these big reports.

Another day of intense A2A combat - we refuse to give in and inflict more heavy casualties
on enemy CAG and 4Es. Bad weather makes it all a gamble - if bad weather had shut down enemy carriers
that launched 80 Corsairs in a sweep today enemy losses would have been twice as high.

This was the last day of November, the fighting will most likely continue well into December!
If we can only hold for a little longer there will be no time for the enemy to rest and prepare for another
round. Amami itself is of little value if this goal can be achieved.

We lost lots of transports today, most have been lightly loaded and even empty.
The number of troops brought in has been relatively small, mostly supply runs.
Didn't expect the battle for an atoll to drag out for so long and now I regret moving supplies from Amami to Kadina [:'(]
Time to let it up as Andy has brought back a lot of surface ships to deal with them.

I read in 'Nemesis' - the Battle for Japan 44-45 - that the Japs used all kinds of small ships, including sailing
schooners to send men and supplies to reinforce the garrison after the landings at Leyte in October 44.
Losses were horrendous of course...

We don't have schooners so I decided to use a limited number of transports - still have hundreds of them lying idle in the Home Islands - but I've tried not to overdo it. A special mission called: "Ground ship and unload supplies" could be needed here [8|]


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 11/30/45

Sub/ASW Attacks

Sub attack at 58,44

Japanese Ships
MSW Tomozono Maru #3, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PG Uji

Allied Ships
SS Harder
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bombardments

Naval bombardment of Amami, at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CA Detroit
CA Chicago
CA Chester
CA Indianapolis
CA Portland
CA Astoria
CA Louisville
CA Canberra
CA New Orleans
CA Guam
CA Boston
CA Baltimore
CA Wichita
CA Tuscaloosa
CA Minneapolis
BB Texas
BB New York
BB Arkansas
BB Missouri
BB Iowa
BB Alabama
BB Massachusetts
BB Washington
BB Idaho

Japanese ground losses:
1091 casualties reported
Guns lost 15

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 30
Port supply hits 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Air Combat

Day Air attack on Bombay , at 20,10

Japanese aircraft
Ki-100 Tony x 7

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 19
TBM Avenger x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-100 Tony: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
TBM Avenger: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Port hits 1
Port supply hits 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Bombay , at 20,10

Allied aircraft
Vengeance I x 4
Liberator VI x 8

Allied aircraft losses
Vengeance I: 2 damaged
Liberator VI: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Runway hits 1
Port hits 2
Port supply hits 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Bombay , at 20,10

Allied aircraft
Liberator VI x 12

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Port hits 3
Port supply hits 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Kadina , at 54,45

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 7
J7W Shinden x 51
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 6
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 6

Allied aircraft
F-5A Lightning x 1
PB4Y Liberator x 3
B-24J Liberator x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y Liberator: 3 destroyed
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 24
J7W Shinden x 34
C6N1-S Myrt x 20
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 11
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 30
Ki-100 Tony x 23

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 12
F4U-1D Corsair x 44
Corsair IV x 18

Japanese aircraft losses - the usual silly dilly results when Corsairs are about. They're still more deadly than the Shindens!
174 of our fighters shot down by 74 Corsairs which lost 47 of their own numbers.

A7M2 Reppu: 25 destroyed
J7W Shinden: 40 destroyed
C6N1-S Myrt: 19 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 15 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 39 destroyed
Ki-100 Tony: 36 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged
F4U-1D Corsair: 34 destroyed
Corsair IV: 11 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fortunately enough CAP fighters were left to wing a lot of enemy bombers and some CAG fighters.

Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 13
J7W Shinden x 22
C6N1-S Myrt x 2
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 7

Allied aircraft
F-5C Lightning x 3
P-51D Mustang x 18
P-61A Black Widow x 16
B-29 Superfortress x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 4 destroyed
J7W Shinden: 8 destroyed, 3 damaged
C6N1-S Myrt: 2 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F-5C Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 16 destroyed
P-61A Black Widow: 5 destroyed, 3 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 5

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-29 Superfortress bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B-29 Superfortress bombing at 6000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 3
J7W Shinden x 8
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 1

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 12
B-24J Liberator x 43

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 1 damaged
J7W Shinden: 5 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 8 destroyed
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed, 9 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
6 casualties reported

Runway hits 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 3
J7W Shinden x 8
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29 Superfortress x 68

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 1 damaged
J7W Shinden: 9 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29 Superfortress: 3 destroyed, 10 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
55 casualties reported

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 55
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 3
J7W Shinden x 8

Allied aircraft
B-29 Superfortress x 90

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 3 damaged
J7W Shinden: 10 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29 Superfortress: 2 destroyed, 12 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
34 casualties reported

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 102
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 21st/B Division, at 20,10

Japanese aircraft
Ki-100 Tony x 2

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 6
F6F Hellcat x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 damaged
F6F Hellcat: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
38 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Bombay at 20,10

Japanese aircraft
Ki-100 Tony x 2

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
AP Heiyo Maru, Shell hits 24, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 55,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 4
A6M5c Zeke x 8

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
F6F Hellcat x 123
F4U-1 Corsair x 16
F4U-1D Corsair x 24
Corsair IV x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 4 destroyed
A6M5c Zeke: 8 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Hobart
CL Pasadena
CL Birmingham
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 55,44

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67 Peggy x 3

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 4
F6F Hellcat x 116
F4U-1 Corsair x 15
F4U-1D Corsair x 19
Corsair IV x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-67 Peggy: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 1 damaged
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 13
J7W Shinden x 16
C6N1-S Myrt x 10
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 3
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 7
Ki-100 Tony x 8

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 4
F4U-1D Corsair x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 5 destroyed
J7W Shinden: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
C6N1-S Myrt: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 4 destroyed
Ki-100 Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 3 destroyed
F4U-1D Corsair: 5 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Amami at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 11
J7W Shinden x 16
C6N1-S Myrt x 6
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 7
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 8
Ki-100 Tony x 6

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 4
F6F Hellcat x 8
F4U-1 Corsair x 2
TBM Avenger x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 1 destroyed
C6N1-S Myrt: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 5 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100 Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 4 destroyed
F6F Hellcat: 8 destroyed
TBM Avenger: 3 destroyed

Japanese Ships
AP Hikade Maru

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x TBM Avenger launching torpedoes at 200 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 53,45

Japanese aircraft
B7A Grace x 3
G4M2 Betty x 3
P1Y Frances x 6
Ki-49 Helen x 3
Ki-67 Peggy x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M2 Betty: 2 damaged
P1Y Frances: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
AO Tomahawk, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Prevail, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Swallow, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daytime Surface Combat

15 ships and 5 barges were sunk by this uber sized TF.
Only showing one encounter not to bore you to death!-)

Day Time Surface Combat, near Amami at 56,44

Japanese Ships
PG Uji, Shell hits 6, and is sunk

Allied Ships
BB Idaho
BB Washington
BB Massachusetts
BB Alabama
BB Iowa
BB Missouri
BB Arkansas
BB New York
BB Texas
CA Minneapolis
CA Tuscaloosa
CA Wichita
CA Baltimore
CA Boston
CA Guam
CA New Orleans
CA Canberra
CA Louisville
CA Astoria
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Chester
CA Chicago
CA Detroit
CA Houston
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground Combat

Enemy reduce a fort level at Bombay - by pure luck.
Think we can hold even without forts according to the modifiers given here!

Ground combat at Bombay

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 66846 troops, 666 guns, 106 vehicles, Assault Value = 1487

Defending force 87526 troops, 586 guns, 187 vehicles, Assault Value = 1148

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 8

Allied max assault: 1389 - adjusted assault: 477

Japanese max defense: 1199 - adjusted defense: 11593 - No way Andy will break this anytime soon [:D]

Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 8)

Japanese ground losses:
2158 casualties reported
Guns lost 11
Vehicles lost 5

Allied ground losses:
4393 casualties reported
Guns lost 120
Vehicles lost 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Amami

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 252199 troops, 1894 guns, 1022 vehicles, Assault Value = 5136

Defending force 71954 troops, 471 guns, 28 vehicles, Assault Value = 1569

Japanese ground losses:
216 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 enemy tank units have shock attacked on follow mode for 4-5 days - thus shock marching
from Dehli to Lahore in half the time that should be possible....annoying. Hope this is dealt with in AE.

Ground combat at 28,7

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 4421 troops, 0 guns, 205 vehicles, Assault Value = 109

Defending force 1499 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 25

Allied max assault: 188 - adjusted assault: 130

Japanese max defense: 14 - adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 130 to 1

Japanese ground losses:
515 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Uber TF [X(]

[CapAndGown]

Despite the superiority of the Corsairs, those Shindens are doing a good job. I wonder what the replacement rates are on those things (I mean Corsairs)? You seem to be severely damaging his airforce. (plus, all the ones that went down with the CVEs!)

Edited for clarity

[vettim89]

Its like driving past a car wreck on the road - you know you shouldn't look but you just can't help yourself. everytime I see a new post by PzB, I have to stop in and see what happened. The carnage, the carnage, oh the humanity

[Nemo121]

PzB,

I know you are probably aware of this but sequential sweeps seem to really destroy enemy CAP---- it has to comprise, IMO, a minimum of 3 sequential sweeps but by the end of the third one the enemy CAP's casualty-causing ability will be severely attrited ( and this is the key ), even in the absence of significant casualties to that CAP.

Just suggesting it since he seems to have created a situation where he is going to have to bring another wave of troops into Amami and that'll give you the opportunity to launch multiple sweeps from multiple bases, combined with bomber strikes.



As an aside:
While the losses are massive what's REALLY interesting is that overall these losses, if spread across the Allied inventory, mean that AndyMac should be winning and winning handily - this isn't the case because he is concentrating his losses in what is his most fragile aerial component right now ( the USN ). This is bad strategy indeed.

Why do I say this?
Well, Andy has taken roughly 200 losses in flying 8,000 missions today, that's a 2.5% loss rate which is within the rate of continuous sustainability ( defined as being sustainable without requiring significant periods of standing down and rebuilding ) while PzB has lost 314 planes in 2,000 sorties which is a loss rate of 15% - well beyond the rate of anything sustainable.

Unfortunately for Andy these figures are misleading as at least 126 of the Allied losses came out of the USN pilot pool. In effect some 60% of his losses ( minimum ) have to be replaced by somewhat under 30% of his pilot replacements. So while, overall, it looks like he is operating at continuous sustainability he is, in fact, operating with unsustainable loss levels to the component ( USN ) he is using as his spearhead time and time again. I don't know if he is nearing the 15% figure as I'd need a full day's CR and loss report to calculate that but he is definitely well above what is sustainable. The only question really is is whether he is double it or triple it or quadruple it.

Obviously this is only one day's figures but the overall thrust holds true when you average out the losses in the "plane loss screen" on other days.

[pat.casey]

Nemo,

I think Andy's problem is precisely what you describe in that he can't force PzB to stand and fight his LBA fighters. Anywhere in range of Andy's LBA PzB just withdraws.

Which means to bring his superior LBA into the fray, Andy has to back PzB up against something he *has* to defend, which at this point in the game means the home islands.

So Andy desperately needs a fighter base in range of the Home islands, which is precisely why he's invading Amani now.

I'm sure he'd desperately love to spread his losses over his army replacement and pilot pool, but that's not practical until after Amani falls (and even then I question whether one air base is going to be worth the loss in operational momentum, but that's another issue).

Point being, I think Andy's got no choice except to grind it out with his navy pilots and hope PzB runs out of airframes before he does.

[Nemo121]

Pat,
 
Well the mother of all victories is the shaping of the battlefield you've been doing for the past 6 months to year. Andy is in trouble now because over the past year while he has noticed and b*tched about the problem of attriting PzB more than PzB has attrited him he hasn't actually managed to achieve anything concrete in terms of attriting PzB's pilots without running his own USN pilots down.
 
Now he is simply paying the final toll for his failure to write down the IJA and IJN fighter strength over the previous campaigns. His failure isn't so much in this campaign ( where certain operational realities dictate which portions of his pool must bear the brunt of losses ) but in the previous series of campaigns wherein he hasn't ever brought the hammer of his army and USMC pilot pools to bear in such a manner that the Japanese aerial forces have been truly shattered. Time and again he has told PzB that his USN pilot pools and plane replacement rates are too low but when have we seen concerted and sustained operations aimed at shattering PzB's fighters with USAAF fighter sweeps? Answer, never. We've just seen him send his carriers in again and again taking horrendous losses each time and poining out the same basic flaws on each occasion - but he hasn't done anything about rectifying those issues..... and he has had the opportunity to bring the USAAF fighters into battle in meaningful ways.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Pat,

Well the mother of all victories is the shaping of the battlefield you've been doing for the past 6 months to year. Andy is in trouble now because over the past year while he has noticed and b*tched about the problem of attriting PzB more than PzB has attrited him he hasn't actually managed to achieve anything concrete in terms of attriting PzB's pilots without running his own USN pilots down.

Now he is simply paying the final toll for his failure to write down the IJA and IJN fighter strength over the previous campaigns. His failure isn't so much in this campaign ( where certain operational realities dictfate which portions of his pool must bear the brunt of losses ) but in the previous series of campaigns wherein he hasn't ever brought the hammer of his army and USMC pilot pools to bear in such a manner that the Japanese aerial forces have been truly shattered. Time and again he has told PzB that his USN pilot pools and plane replacement rates are too low but when have we seen concerted and sustained operations aimed at shattering PzB's fighters with USAAF fighter sweeps? Answer, never. We've just seen him send his carriers in again and again taking horrendous losses each time and poining out the same basic flaws on each occasion - but he hasn't done anything about rectifying those issues..... and he has had the opportunity to bring the USAAF fighters into battle in meaningful ways.

Even yet another way this AAR is a training manual for AFB's. I see the need now to use the USN, USAAF, UMC, and Commonwealth pilots all equally now to spread the losses.

[DW]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Pat,

Well the mother of all victories is the shaping of the battlefield you've been doing for the past 6 months to year. Andy is in trouble now because over the past year while he has noticed and b*tched about the problem of attriting PzB more than PzB has attrited him he hasn't actually managed to achieve anything concrete in terms of attriting PzB's pilots without running his own USN pilots down.

Now he is simply paying the final toll for his failure to write down the IJA and IJN fighter strength over the previous campaigns. His failure isn't so much in this campaign ( where certain operational realities dictate which portions of his pool must bear the brunt of losses ) but in the previous series of campaigns wherein he hasn't ever brought the hammer of his army and USMC pilot pools to bear in such a manner that the Japanese aerial forces have been truly shattered. Time and again he has told PzB that his USN pilot pools and plane replacement rates are too low but when have we seen concerted and sustained operations aimed at shattering PzB's fighters with USAAF fighter sweeps? Answer, never. We've just seen him send his carriers in again and again taking horrendous losses each time and poining out the same basic flaws on each occasion - but he hasn't done anything about rectifying those issues..... and he has had the opportunity to bring the USAAF fighters into battle in meaningful ways.

Could you elaborate on that last statement please?

I've read both AAR's in their entirety and until Andy started directly threatening the HI, I can't think of any examples where Andy was in a position to force an air battle using LBA that PZB absolutely had to fight until the recent attack on the inner ring.

PZB avoided force wrecking air battles when Andy attacked the outer ring. He contested enough to slow Andy's advance by forcing him to attack important objective with a well prepared assault, but he didn't over commit and withdrew his air power before the losses began to get too expensive.

And, he did it very well.

The avenues of advance to attack the inner ring are limited with respect to LBA.

The only real direction for Andy to attack the inner ring under powerful LBA cover is the way he's going now, and I don't see how he could have advanced the time table of that avenue of attack very much.

Given the state of the game when Andy took over, I'm having a difficult time seeing what he could have done differently that would have significantly altered the current state of affairs.

He might be fighting some place else now, but it would still a similar battle aimed at achieving a similar goal.

[Nemo121]

Tactics are subordinate to operations, operations are subordinate to strategy. If the strategy was to whittle down Japanes pilot pools then different, less deep operations which relied less on USN pilots forcing the way and more on small leapfrogs carried out under the cover of USAAF pilots. Look at the war over the last year, it has been one continuous saga of overly deep operations being carried out at ruinous cost far from the protecting umbrella of USAAF pilots.
 
 
As to how things would differ... Well, if he had begun subsuming his tactics and operations to his great strategic goal ( of writing down the japanese experienced pilot pool ) a year ago then the operations he would have chosen to follow would have slightly different emphases and carried out slightly differently. A good metaphor here is of pushing an asteroid out of a collision path with earth. If you spot it 4 days before impact then you pretty much have to nuke it and even if you do enough fragments will hit the Earth to devastate it. If, on the other hand you spot it 369 days out then you can mount a little engine on it to give it a little lateral acceleration and over the course of time it will veer enough off course to miss completely.
 
My point is that while it may seem like little could have been done and the battles now would be much the same I would argue that small differences snowball over time and become quite significant.
 

The key point is that Andy identified this as a critical weakness and has done very, very little to remedy it effectively over the past year. This is a clear failing on his part and now he is most assuredly paying the price. Could it have been different? Yes, I believe so as he never focussed ruthlessly on a single objective and pursued it with all his force without being distracted by sideshows.

[1275psi]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

ORIGINAL: PzB

The Arunta is one of the lucky ships together with the carrier Wasp [8|]

HMAS Arunta was awarded 48 battle stars, one Victoria Cross, twenty-five Georges Cross, one Congressional Medal of Honor, two Presidential Citations, three Legion d'Honneur & one order of Lenin for its Allied service in the Pacific. It is now a floating museum in Sydney.

regrettfully the Arunta is NOT a museum ship in Sydney
She was scrapped.
Ship in Sydney is the Vampire -a Daring Class destroyer.

As an aside, we had an Author -JE Mc Donald who wrote a series of Gun Ho navy war novels loosley based on the Arunta's service.
Real stiff upper lip -36 knots type stuff![:'(]

[DW]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Tactics are subordinate to operations, operations are subordinate to strategy. If the strategy was to whittle down Japanes pilot pools then different, less deep operations which relied less on USN pilots forcing the way and more on small leapfrogs carried out under the cover of USAAF pilots. Look at the war over the last year, it has been one continuous saga of overly deep operations being carried out at ruinous cost far from the protecting umbrella of USAAF pilots.

Where was he supposed to launch small attacks covered by the USAAF that PZB actually had to defend?

By the time Andy had the game sorted enough to begin to launch such attacks, PZB was already sitting pretty with respect to resources and oil and there was no place he had to defend from a strategic point of view except the HI.

He'd have likely done the same thing that he's been doing all along. React with a measured response to Andy's attacks with a careful eye on his pilot pools.

As to how things would differ... Well, if he had begun subsuming his tactics and operations to his great strategic goal ( of writing down the japanese experienced pilot pool ) a year ago then the operations he would have chosen to follow would have slightly different emphases and carried out slightly differently. A good metaphor here is of pushing an asteroid out of a collision path with earth. If you spot it 4 days before impact then you pretty much have to nuke it and even if you do enough fragments will hit the Earth to devastate it. If, on the other hand you spot it 369 days out then you can mount a little engine on it to give it a little lateral acceleration and over the course of time it will veer enough off course to miss completely.

I understand what you're saying, but in the end PZB has to cooperate with Andy's goal of atritting the Japanese pilot pool. The only way to force PZB to cooperate is to attack a place that he absolutely can't afford to lose. And, due to the nature of this particular game and PZBs stockpiles of oil and resources, the only place that PZB absolutely can't afford to lose is the HI.

And, that state of affairs has been in place for a very long time.

Attacks any other place on the map allow PZB the option of a measured response, which is exactly what he's been doing.

I agree that there are somethings that Andy could have handled better, but none of those things would have altered the basic framework of the strategic situation that Andy was confronted with when he took over the game.

My point is that while it may seem like little could have been done and the battles now would be much the same I would argue that small differences snowball over time and become quite significant.


The key point is that Andy identified this as a critical weakness and has done very, very little to remedy it effectively over the past year. This is a clear failing on his part and now he is most assuredly paying the price. Could it have been different? Yes, I believe so as he never focussed ruthlessly on a single objective and pursued it with all his force without being distracted by sideshows.

Well, some strategic situations are insoluble in the face of a competent opponent, a limited schedule and the tools at hand.

Andy tried to force combat with his LBA in New Guinea, and PZB refused to commit his air power in pitched battle.

He tried again in the Marshall Islands with the same result.

The same goes for pretty much everywhere else Andy attacked in the outer ring of defenses. PZB offered enough resistance to slow Andy's attack, but not enough to seriously deplete his pilot pools. When things began to get too costly, PZB simply withdrew his air power.

As to going deep, Iwo Jima may have been an over reach, but even had he taken a more measured approach to that campaign, that avenue of attack offered limited opportunity to bring his LBA power into play until he actually captured Iwo Jima, and PZB didn't really need to commit his own air power in a pitched defense until Iwo Jima was under actual assault. I don't think it likely that the result of a more deliberate approach along that axis would have gained results that were much different with respect to atritting pilot pools than Andy's attempt to go deep did.

The same applies to fighting in the SRA and SEAC areas. By the time Andy was in a position to attack in that region, PZD no longer needed to staunchly defend it. So, he didn't. It mattered little whether Andy went deep or stayed shallow because he couldn't use an attack in that region to force PZB to fight unless PZB chose to fight.

Finally, with respect to not ruthlessly perusing a single objective, as far as I recall, Iwo Jima was the only place that Andy seriously attacked that he didn't get. Once PZB had identified it as a target and concentrated his forces on Iwo Jima and Bonin, Andy could have put every division he had in the Pacific on that island and he still wouldn't have gotten it.

Sometimes it's best not to reinforce a failure.

And, while the India sideshow may seem ill advised, it's not clear to me that keeping the troops involved in that operation for use in the Pacific would significantly alter the situation in the Pacific theater. Trying to take any of the islands in the inner defensive ring, when they've all got lvl 9 forts and terrain bonuses is nearly impossible even when one puts every available division onto a given island.

He's probably going to be further ahead with respect to points with capturing India than he would if he had put those same troops onto Amami.

I think, with the state of the game as Andy inherited it, the very competent play on the part of PZB and the limited schedule Andy had to work with, this is one of those instances where the strategic situation defies the available solutions.

I think PZB won this game by the first half of 1943 and less he made a series of serious mistakes, which he didn't, there was no losing it.

Anyway, thanks for elaborating on your point.

I always enjoy hearing others strategic thoughts.

[Fishbed]

ORIGINAL: 1275psi

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

ORIGINAL: PzB

The Arunta is one of the lucky ships together with the carrier Wasp [8|]

HMAS Arunta was awarded 48 battle stars, one Victoria Cross, twenty-five Georges Cross, one Congressional Medal of Honor, two Presidential Citations, three Legion d'Honneur & one order of Lenin for its Allied service in the Pacific. It is now a floating museum in Sydney.

regrettfully the Arunta is NOT a museum ship in Sydney
She was scrapped.
Ship in Sydney is the Vampire -a Daring Class destroyer.

As an aside, we had an Author -JE Mc Donald who wrote a series of Gun Ho navy war novels loosley based on the Arunta's service.
Real stiff upper lip -36 knots type stuff![:'(]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

To bad I didn't go to Sydney when I was down under...only had an old frigate in Brisbane!

That's our alternative reality version of HMAS Arunta, Admiral [:-]
Do you believe any ship could somehow expect to get 48 battle stars, 1 VC and 1 CMOH in the real war? This is not the HMAS Arunta from the real war - this is the lucky HMAS Arunta from the great, murderous, PzB war [:D]

[;)]

[ChezDaJez]

I think PZB won this game by the first half of 1943 and less he made a series of serious mistakes, which he didn't, there was no losing it.

Yes, PzB has won the game as defined by the game itself. However, he has lost the war. That was inevitable given the Allied material advantages.

Had this game been RL, Japan's surrender would still have only been a matter of time. Whether it would have a negotiated or unconditional surrender, who knows but the amount of men and material arriving from the European theater and Soviet entry ensures that surrender will come.

IRL, the US would not have been able to forego an invasion as the Soviets were already on the move capturing the Kuriles and Sakhalin. Hokkaido would have been next and the US could not allow Soviet troops to occupy large portions of Japanese territory without dire political consequences.

Chez

[DW]

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

I think PZB won this game by the first half of 1943 and less he made a series of serious mistakes, which he didn't, there was no losing it.

Yes, PzB has won the game as defined by the game itself. However, he has lost the war. That was inevitable given the Allied material advantages.

Had this game been RL, Japan's surrender would still have only been a matter of time. Whether it would have a negotiated or unconditional surrender, who knows but the amount of men and material arriving from the European theater and Soviet entry ensures that surrender will come.

IRL, the US would not have been able to forego an invasion as the Soviets were already on the move capturing the Kuriles and Sakhalin. Hokkaido would have been next and the US could not allow Soviet troops to occupy large portions of Japanese territory without dire political consequences.

Chez

Agreed.

There is -no way- that Japan ever had any hope of winning WWII, and any game that models the Pacific war halfway realistically is going to reflect that fact. Unless the allied player makes a series of almost unimaginable mistakes, an outright military victory for Japan is a pipe dream.

When I think about Japan's involvement in WWII, the only thing that really comes to mind is.. "What were they thinking?"

Having said that, I think PzB has done a fantastic job of husbanding his resources and recognizing when he has to fight, when he doesn't and planning his operations accordingly. While he's clearly losing the war, it's difficult to see how anyone could delay a competent opponent any more than PzB has in his game with Andy.

[pat.casey]

They thought they wanted it more than the western powers and could make the price of victory so high that the western powers would be unwilling to pay it. Then they could negotiate out some kind of peace deal that would leave Japan in a materially better position than she started. Their hope was to fight a war which was a total war on the Japanese part, but a limited on the part of the Western powers.

Problem is that in order to achieve her operational aim (dominate southeast asia), Japan chose to launch a sneak attack on Peal Harbor, an action which made her political goal impossible to achieve.

It was a classic catch 22. In order to achieve a negotiated victory, Japan had to win fast in the early months of the war and dig in. In order to win fast, she had to keep the US out of the pacific for 6 months, which meant neutralizing the pacific fleet. In order to neutralize the pacific fleet, a surprise attach had to be launched on Pearl, but a surprise attack on Pearl would anger the US enough that she'd be willing to pay the price to win a total war.

Point being the Japanese never thought they could win a total war against any western power, much less all of them at once. Instead, they were banking on keeping the conflict limited in their enemy's eyes.

[Nemo121]

DW,
IMO the Marianas and Bonins would have been eminently achievable with the sort of outlay we have seen lavished on the Phillipines, Malaysia and India. Add in a little detour to Okinawa to pick off the least-defended island there and with just these three invasions we would have the following:

1. A progression from Marianas to Bonins which would have been well within range of any Allied bombers and even some long-range escort fighters ( P-51, P-38 ).
2. The option of hitting the Home Islands with fighter sweeps from Chichi Jima and Minami Shima and bomber raids from Iwo Jima. In addition LRCAP from the Bonins could have covered Allied fleets making for Okinawa until they were within 1 day of landing. This would have, if properly managed, allowed him to greatly husband his USN fighter pools.
3. With one of the Okinawa islands in US hands a successful blockade featuring significant numbers of tactical bombers etc could have been effected. Over time, to make the blockade even more effective I would have manoeuvred against Formasa so as to create a moderately self-sustaining base where the necessary supply convoys could be LRCAPED from the Bonins, Okinawa and Formosa itself for their entire journey.
 
The idea would have been to wear IJN and IJA fighters down with ceaseless USAAF, USMC and Allied fighter sweeps over the Home Islands, bomb into rubble anything the Japanese didn't defend and to prevent further Japanese transports making it back to the Home Islands with supplies, reinforcements and OIL/RESOURCES.

Sure, it isn't as glamorous as what happened BUT it is a damn sight surer. In AndyMac's situation he really needed to just concentrate on bombing the Home Islands into nothingness ASAP. Without resource centres and HI the Home Islands would, quickly enough, run out of supply and without supply fighters can't be replaced, bombers won't fly and troops won't fight. When supplies were at that level a ground invasion is eminently possible.

Since each thrust is less deep and can be covered by USAAF LRCAP losses to shipping would also, almost certainly, have been lessened which would also have helped any future invasion.
 

Well, some strategic situations are insoluble in the face of a competent opponent, a limited schedule and the tools at hand.
No, in such situations then one must simply alter the parameters in order to make the strategic situation soluble again. AndyMac accepted a strategic situation which was stacked against him instead of doing his best to change it so that it was no longer so stacked against him. In war or a game I'll always bet with the guy who looks for ways to change the game if the odds are against him than the guy who simply accepts the  game as is.

Trying to take any of the islands in the inner defensive ring, when they've all got lvl 9 forts and terrain bonuses is nearly impossible even when one puts every available division onto a given island.
Well, it is four times easier if you have taken the time and effort to bomb that island into submission with massive bomber raids over the past few weeks such that that island has no supplies left. In such situations the larger the garrison the quicker it runs out of supply and becomes fairly powerless.
Also, by following one main objective without diversion one CAN bring the entire Allied strength to bear on just one point and beat down these massive strongpoints in series. If the full Allied force is brought to bear then the Japanese simply cannot win.... If the Allies disperse their effort then all manner of things are possible.

[PzB74]

Wow, a discussion on strategy and tactics in my absence - always welcome!
Appreciate the support guys!

To be fair I think it is a bit easy to be wise after the event.
Andy deserves credit for at all to pick up this glowing potato.
I know my weaknesses and what he could have done to make life even more miserable for me,
guess I should be happy that he cannot read minds [;)]

Andy would probably have failed to take the Marianas unless he entered via Northern Guinea and perhaps
captured Truk and nearby islands first. This would be doable and made it possible to invade Bonins
and PI's at will in 45. His aim has been to push on to the Home Islands at all cost and I don't think
'conventional' strategy could have brought him there quickly enough.

Sure enough, he could have captured Marianas, Okinawas, PI's and maybe Formosa and started working on Okinawas
by the time the war ended.

Another bloody day in the air and on the ground!
We keep air superiority over Amami and Kadina while enemy suppress Naha.

We hit 2 CVEs today.

On the ground Andy attacks Amami again and just barely manages a 1-1 odds which reduces
forts to lvl 5! We loose 10500 to 8500 enemy casualties. That hurt and it looks like Andy
will manage to wrestle down the forts in time. With such losses his army will be wrecked and
useless for a follow up invasion of the Home Islands. That is the plan [:)]

The question is how much more we should expend to defend Amami - how much longer will such an effort
delay its fall and further weaken the enemy?

When Amami falls we will become vulnerable to massive T-bolt sweeps over Kyushu while longer range fighters
like the P-51 and P-38 will sweep all the way to Osaka and Tokyo. Only our Shindens will keep them at bay
at a huge cost.

I'm still a bit uncertain whether the game really ends on 01.03 or 01.04 1946.
Can anyone give me a 100% confirmation here?
If it ends 01.03 Andy won't have time for another 'stunt'.
If it ends 01.04 we may have to face another wave....

Some good news from the ops report here:
H8K Emily has spotted Manila Bay at 56,44
Manila Bay is reported HIT

That should hurt! [8D]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 12/01/45


Bombardments

Andy is using his cripples to bombard Bombay!!

Naval bombardment of Bombay, at 20,10

Allied Ships
BB Richelieu, heavy damage
BB Maryland, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
58 casualties reported
Guns lost 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Air Combat

Day Air attack on Bombay , at 20,10

Japanese aircraft
Ki-100 Tony x 2

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 10
TBM Avenger x 32

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-100 Tony: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
TBM Avenger: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 6
Port hits 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Bombay , at 20,10

Allied aircraft
Liberator VI x 12

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator VI: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
97 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Port hits 5
Port supply hits 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Bombay , at 20,10

Allied aircraft
Liberator VI x 7

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
54 casualties reported

Port hits 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We put up a sizeable CAP over Kadina as well and enemy strikes did not get through!

Day Air attack on Kadina , at 54,45

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 14
J7W Shinden x 68
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 7
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 28

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 1 damaged
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Likewise, we held air superiority over Amami today!

Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 81
J7W Shinden x 22
C6N1-S Myrt x 18
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 41
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 14
Ki-100 Tony x 39

Allied aircraft
F6F-5N Hellcat x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 2 destroyed
C6N1-S Myrt: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 7 destroyed
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100 Tony: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-5N Hellcat: 7 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Amami , at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 81
J7W Shinden x 22
C6N1-S Myrt x 16
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 37
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 14
Ki-100 Tony x 35

Allied aircraft
P-61A Black Widow x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Reppu: 1 destroyed
C6N1-S Myrt: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 8 destroyed
Ki-100 Tony: 6 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-61A Black Widow: 11 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andy sent all his 4Es to suppress Naha - and succeeded at a high price.
Our sacrifices kept Amami 'dry' and allowed Kadina to repair all AF damage.

Day Air attack on Naha , at 54,46

Japanese aircraft
J7W Shinden x 54
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
Mosquito B.XXVI x 10
P-38J Lightning x 21
F-5C Lightning x 4
P-51D Mustang x 16
B-29 Superfortress x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Mosquito B.XXVI: 3 destroyed, 4 damaged
P-38J Lightning: 7 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 16 destroyed
B-29 Superfortress: 4 destroyed

Japanese ground losses:
42 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Naha , at 54,46

Japanese aircraft
J7W Shinden x 29
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 5

Allied aircraft
Mosquito PR.IX x 4
P-38J Lightning x 61
P-51D Mustang x 18
PB4Y Liberator x 6
B-24J Liberator x 72
B-29 Superfortress x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 42 destroyed - ouch!
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 8 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 5 destroyed
B7A Grace: 6 destroyed
G4M2 Betty: 1 destroyed
B6N Jill: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38J Lightning: 7 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-51D Mustang: 8 destroyed
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
B-29 Superfortress: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
168 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

Airbase hits 17
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Naha , at 54,46

Japanese aircraft
J7W Shinden x 5

Allied aircraft
B-29 Superfortress x 87

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 1 destroyed
B7A Grace: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29 Superfortress: 6 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
122 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Airbase hits 9
Airbase supply hits 12
Runway hits 126
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Naha , at 54,46

Japanese aircraft
J7W Shinden x 5

Allied aircraft
F-5A Lightning x 4
PB4Y Liberator x 3
B-24J Liberator x 52
B-29 Superfortress x 76

Japanese aircraft losses
J7W Shinden: 2 damaged
Ki-84-Ic Frank: 1 destroyed
B7A Grace: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 2 damaged
B-29 Superfortress: 5 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
164 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Airbase hits 11
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 205
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 55th Ind.Mixed/A Brigade, at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Reppu x 81
J7W Shinden x 22
C6N1-S Myrt x 13
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 31
Ki-84-Ic Frank x 14
Ki-100 Tony x 30

Allied aircraft
TBM Avenger x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
TBM Avenger: 13 destroyed [8D]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 20,8

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 13
SB2C Helldiver x 3

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Heiyo Maru, Shell hits 40, Bomb hits 10, on fire, heavy damage
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Bombay at 20,10

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 5

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Suwa Maru, Shell hits 12, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Amami at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zeke x 3

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 13
F6F Hellcat x 9
F4U-1 Corsair x 5
F4U-1D Corsair x 8
P-51D Mustang x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zeke: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Barnes, Kamikaze hits 1, on fire [8D]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Amami at 56,44

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zeke x 3

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 13
F6F Hellcat x 9
F4U-1 Corsair x 5
F4U-1D Corsair x 8
P-51D Mustang x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zeke: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Commencement Bay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 19,11

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Richelieu, heavy damage
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground Combat

Ground combat at Bombay

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4688 troops, 162 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1063

Defending force 84996 troops, 581 guns, 183 vehicles, Assault Value = 1141

Japanese ground losses:
27 casualties reported
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Amami

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 293115 troops, 1956 guns, 2218 vehicles, Assault Value = 5356

Defending force 73833 troops, 527 guns, 27 vehicles, Assault Value = 1620

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5

Allied max assault: 4741 - adjusted assault: 1426

Japanese max defense: 1551 - adjusted defense: 1334

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Japanese ground losses:
10583 casualties reported - ouch!
Guns lost 216
Vehicles lost 4

Allied ground losses:
8442 casualties reported
Guns lost 199
Vehicles lost 39
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lahore managed to hold for one day....

Ground combat at Lahore

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 4441 troops, 0 guns, 206 vehicles, Assault Value = 109

Defending force 2293 troops, 10 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 52

Allied max assault: 190 - adjusted assault: 114

Japanese max defense: 44 - adjusted defense: 12

Allied assault odds: 9 to 1 (fort level 9)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Japanese ground losses:
459 casualties reported
Guns lost 6

Allied ground losses:
26 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 2
---------------------------------------------------------------------

KAMIKAZE!!

[Naskra]

End of Game = 1946. april 1.

[CapAndGown]

I thought you said you hit a couple of CVEs. I only saw one hit in the combat report.

[DW]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

They thought they wanted it more than the western powers and could make the price of victory so high that the western powers would be unwilling to pay it. Then they could negotiate out some kind of peace deal that would leave Japan in a materially better position than she started. Their hope was to fight a war which was a total war on the Japanese part, but a limited on the part of the Western powers.

Yea.

I know what I wrote, but in reality I really do understand what the Japanese were thinking.

Grab what we want fast, and make it so expensive to take back that the decedent westerners will throw in the towel.

It's just that their estimates of almost everything concerning the U.S., from our industrial might to our willingness to fight was so far off the mark that it begs credulity.

And, even worse, the military leadership of the government refused to listen to the people in Japan who did understand the U.S. and what they'd be up against.

I recall reading an interview with a Japanese diplomat. Soon after the Japanese had conquered what they wanted Tojo nonchalantly directed him to arrange for the end of the conflict, as if it was no big deal.

Riiight....

Like that was going to happen.

Even late war they were hoping they could get the Soviets to broker a peace deal. How naive was that?

Problem is that in order to achieve her operational aim (dominate southeast asia), Japan chose to launch a sneak attack on Peal Harbor, an action which made her political goal impossible to achieve.

It was a classic catch 22. In order to achieve a negotiated victory, Japan had to win fast in the early months of the war and dig in. In order to win fast, she had to keep the US out of the pacific for 6 months, which meant neutralizing the pacific fleet. In order to neutralize the pacific fleet, a surprise attach had to be launched on Pearl, but a surprise attack on Pearl would anger the US enough that she'd be willing to pay the price to win a total war.

Point being the Japanese never thought they could win a total war against any western power, much less all of them at once. Instead, they were banking on keeping the conflict limited in their enemy's eyes.

Agreed.