Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

I KNOW that!  Considering all the major bases I lost last month the sheer fact that I gained some points is great.  I expect the total to start falling as these bases change hands and I lose the value of them.

There has been a high-level Privy Council session that is completely changing the planned Japanese attack.  MOST SECRET and cannot be revealed.  We simply must submit to the American onslaught for a bit longer...

[FOW]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What's even more scary is John now knows how to manage the economy [X(]

I wouldn't go that far....[:D]

Michael, you showed John the way to enlightenment.
I said 'how to' - but can John put it into prcatice [&:]

[n01487477]

John,

few adjustments / things to think about ...
[*]I think you can now turn off all Vehicle factories - your surplus should be enough to cover your reinforcement need & as you know there are no delayed troops needing Veh pts.
[*]Another month or so of Arm and that can be turned off too ... or as needed.
[*]The Mitsubishi pool has actually grown due to old planes being mothballed and the engines going back to the pool - I love this freebie.
[*]I see you didn't actually stop repairing Nakajima's even though your pool continues to grow - might save a few supplies here.
[*]ki-61kAIc Tony - I can see why you are repairing these - to bring in the TBO of 100+ planes, but may I suggest upgrading some of the existing groups and then using the pool to bring in these TBO. Might work for some others too.. Therefore you can turn off the building and repairing of this model.
[*]Continue to check the TBO and the number of days until the next group arrival and that you have enough to cover it.
[*]Lastly and I have to reiterate what you said about transport planes - they are neglected by most players - but I SHALL NEVER DO THIS AGAIN - they are incredibly valuable.

Damian

[John 3rd]

In a seemingly unconnected set of places:

1.  The Kaigun was purposefully steaming due east prior to turning NE at Guam when, suddenly, Vc-Adm Nagumo orders the Fleet to do a 180*.  No reasons are given but the Fleet follows its orders.

2.  Transports begin to form at Manila, Legaspi, and Soerabaja.

3.  The Replenishment TF at Marcus and Guam suddenly get orders to leave harbor and head SW.

Something begins to stir...

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

John,

few adjustments / things to think about ...
[*]I think you can now turn off all Vehicle factories - your surplus should be enough to cover your reinforcement need & as you know there are no delayed troops needing Veh pts.
[*]Another month or so of Arm and that can be turned off too ... or as needed.
[*]The Mitsubishi pool has actually grown due to old planes being mothballed and the engines going back to the pool - I love this freebie.
[*]I see you didn't actually stop repairing Nakajima's even though your pool continues to grow - might save a few supplies here.
[*]ki-61kAIc Tony - I can see why you are repairing these - to bring in the TBO of 100+ planes, but may I suggest upgrading some of the existing groups and then using the pool to bring in these TBO. Might work for some others too.. Therefore you can turn off the building and repairing of this model.
[*]Continue to check the TBO and the number of days until the next group arrival and that you have enough to cover it.
[*]Lastly and I have to reiterate what you said about transport planes - they are neglected by most players - but I SHALL NEVER DO THIS AGAIN - they are incredibly valuable.

Damian

Thanks, as always, for the notes. Will be doing all of that in the near future...

[tocaff]

Seems to me that something big might be afoot and that sometime a plan being flexible to fit the circumstances might be called for.  Go get 'em tiger!  3rd Q 1944 and Japan despite rough going still has major fangs is a credit you you.

[John 3rd]

In the interests of Operational Security and just plain teasing, I must neither confirm nor deny tocaff's observation. 

Thank you though for the thoughts.  I am feeling like Rocky Balboa going into the 15 Round against Apollo Creed in the 1st film...
 

[John 3rd]

THESE welcome additions will be used!

At Batavia the Lt-Gen in charge of the freshly rebuild 3rd Tank Div shakes his head as he puts down the phone. "Colonel!" he barks "Pack up the troops we are moving back to Soerabaja."

The Colonel looks confused "but Sir---we just got here! Our orders were to dig-in and await the Allied invasion of Java."

Growling at the stupidity of 33rd Army HQ, the General simply glares at the Colonel and says "Do it NOW!"

"I'll cut the orders Sir"

[John 3rd]

The General commanding 3rd TK Div isn't the only one questioning things...

[vettim89]

You have no idea how fun this is to watch

[John 3rd]

The ASW fracas east of the Philippines...

[ny59giants]

Looks like some of the younger disciples of Kato Kanji are taking over operational planning in the Naval General Staff. [;)]

[John 3rd]

This is a note I sent to Dan with the last turn.

Now that the last of my troops are done in the Indochina--Malaya area let me give you some thoughts.

The whole attack into this area was magnificent.  Using the Amphib to get around my flanks was well done and executed.

The problem is that you don't know when to take a big risk and go for the throat.  I should have lost all that territory 4-5 months ago.  When you split the defense west of Bangkok I was ready for a complete collapse of my army.  At that point there were nearly 1,000,000 men fighting in the whole theatre.  There were 20 Chinese units sitting in Hue forever.  I kept recon up because I had to know when they would move south so I could do final evacuation.  Instead of a panicked evac with horrific shipping losses I got to pull troops off at my leisure for months.  At least 650,000-750,000 were yanked out of Singapore and Saigon.  Those units sitting at Hue could have crashed through those 2 weak Inf Div and 1 TK Reg anytime.  It was a nightmare I fixated on.  Similar things with the Malay Campaign.  At one point you had Bridgeheads at Georgetown, Malacca, and Johore Bharu.  Had you only had two and gone all out I could not have improvised a defense. 

LESSON:  NEVER leave China open enough for massive numbers to pour into other theatres! 

While some on the Forum have been critical of my withdrawal I comment to them that I have gotten the vast majority of my units out intact and are rebuilding nearly all the others.  While your LBA is massive and frightening, you now have to stage seaborne invasions of you next major target.  I have enough air and naval to make that costly.  Should be interesting to watch and see how it plays out.

This theme of not going for the jugular can also be used in the Central/North Pacific.  I lost the war when you grabbed Iwo Jima.  You and I both know that wasn't your true target; however, it was taken and life became very scary for Japan.  At that point Okinawa and Formosa were ripe for the picking.  My supply line to the DEI would have been cut and life for the Empire would have been ended. 

Hokkaido is another point here.  You made an breathtaking move to land there but then disbursed your troops onto Sakhalin as well.  Concentration at Hokkaido would have kept me from keeping Hakodate on the SW Corner.  If I had lost that last base then I could never have taken the island back.  While Sakhalin is another nail in the Imperial coffin, Hokkaido would have been far more catastrophic. 

None of this is meant as nasty criticism whatsoever.  The Empire hangs by a thread right now but what I am saying is that you might have forced a surrender in May-June 1944 instead of sometime in 1945.

My .02!  :>

By the way---this has been one Hell of a lot of fun!  I hope that I don't get the jail option because I truly want to fight this out until it is fairly and totally DONE!

[John 3rd]

Since taken in early 1942 Manila has been a very busy port, transit point, and repair center for Japan.  The activity in early-to-mid-September 1944 matches the highs of any period in the last 2 1/2 years.

Through the streets of Manila numerous Tanks are seen and heard entering into this wartime city.  They are heading for the port.  Freighters are seen lining up to load these vehicles as fast as possible.

A group of 18 Transports are already departing the Port carrying 16,000 men of the 103rd Inf Div.  When they pass Fortress Corregidor, they are seen to turn due south...  

[John 3rd]

This is Dan's response:

[font="arial,helvetica"][font="arial" lang="0"]John,

It's really interesting to read your analysis, but I think you may have fallen into the trap of seeing your weaknesses, assuming I can see them too, and forgetting that I have problems of my own. (And you'll think the same of my analysis when you read my take on these things).

1)  My troops in Hue had no supplies and I feared that they could be pushed out easily.  I had already prepped them for Hanoi so that I could try to make a stand there.  Had you moved north from Camranh Bay, I was going to have to pull back.  The supply sitaution for the Chinese was that troubling.

2)  The Japs have more ground troops than they'll ever need in this game; time and territory are the real enemies.  The Japs could have tied up the Allies in SEAC for many more invaluable months.  You would have lost a bunch of troops in the end, but you would have held key bases, and tied up critical Allied assets, for a long time to come.  You say I could have had this territory three or four months ago; I think you could've still had a blocking presence there for at least that much longer.

3)  Iwo was one of three possible targets (along with Philippines and Hokkaido) after the Midway invasion.  Formosa/Okinawa weren't in consideration.  I didn't know how strongly you held those two at the time, but I do know that I could have never supplied those bases had I taken them.  I would've taken them, but couldn't have supplied them and it would've become a nightmare.  Heck, my bases on Sikhalin Island were very tenuous for about three months, and Sikhlalin much more secure than Formosa or Okinawa would've been.

4)  The original target of my December invasion was Hokkaido alone; but the invasion fell apart and the Sikhalin bases and Aleutians became last minute objectives hoping to salvage something (fortunately, that turned out well).  I was basing that move on the assumption that you would commit the KB and your combat ships to halt the invasion of Hokkaido, which you would have succeeded in doing; when you didn't do so, I unexpectedly managed to get alot of troops ashlucky to have anything ashore at Hokkaido, and very, very lucky to have had the foresite (or maybe the dumb luck) to seize those Sikhlain bases.  It was winter.  If you'd have 50-75 AV at both bases I'd never have gotten them.

5)  Had you committed your combat ships and the full KB defending Hokkaido, the war would have ended there with a Japanese victory.  I still don't know why your combat ships didn't hit the invasion beaches, and why the KB didn't come full steam ahead, especially after you wiped out the American carrier strike aircraft.

Now, that's just from MY perspective; undoubtedly, my interpretation is colored by my own perceptions about your strengths and my weaknesses.

I am proud of the Malaya campaign for several reasons.  The few comments I got on my AAR urged me to concentrate on a land campaign, but I rejected that and decided I wanted the British to remain mobile.  That amphibious mobility became a huge asset.  Even then, that campaign was intended to be nothing more than a "meat-grinder" to draw Japanese forces and to attrition them if possible.  That was successful too.  But I never expected SEAC to host such major Allied advances. When the KB and your combat ships went that way, it allowed me to bring in the supplies and reinforcements I needed to secure Sikhalin Island and allow it to serve as a base for bombers.

So both of us have had opportunities that we've missed, and seen weaknesses in our own situations that we may have over emphasized, and successes.

You're right; the game has been a blast!  Thanks for sticking in so long and so faithfully.  Yo'ure a tremendously clever and meticulous opponent.

Dan[/font]
[/font]

[tocaff]

An opponent who plays for the joy of playing, win lose or draw, that sticks with it for so much time is indeed a gem.

[Heeward]

I am wondering by saving fragments of land combat units and rebuilding them - does this create a insupportable drain on your supply pool as rebuilt units continue to eat supply?
 

[John 3rd]

They do eat supply but I haven't noticed a huge drain.  Most of these units have been ending up at Manila or Soerabaja and those bases stay between 10-20,000 supply consistently.

Have noticed the amount of time rebuilding takes.  The 2 Armored Divisions lifted from Saigon 3-4 months ago are now at 80-90% and that has been at a well supplied port.

[John 3rd]

The new Operations is to be entitled "Downfall."  Does anyone know enough Japanese to give me an approximation of Downfall in Japanese?  I woould prefer to use the Japanese words.
 

[HarryM]

Don't speak Japanese, but according to this...
http://www.freedict.com/onldict/jap.html

Possibilities are metsubou, suibou, furyouka