Gutted - Hartwig (Allied) vs Nemo (Japan)

[n01487477]

I was shocked when I really looked at the mod in depth and it really looks like Japan has been turned into a mini Germany with all the armor forces she gets. And all those units arrive 100% full strength. He only needs armaments and vehicles to replace losses. Another thing I noticed was that the T34 is not listed in equipment pools, so I do not know if they even get replaced.

Well that is partially true, but the Armour divs have to be fitted out first and that costs a load of Veh and Arm points [;)] without producing large quantities of Arm and Veh points at a cost of 6 HI/point then they will not come in at full strength and they take ages to fill out. And air superiority giving way to massive Air-ground attacks destroyed my Armour just the same as any other LCU. Economically Japan can become a mini-Germany, but in 'early to mid-42 this would be hard to achieve, unless as Nemo has done, he has aggressively conquered enough HI to equip his forces.But I get what you are saying 2ndACR ...

Damian

 

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

I still did not get the turn back from Nemo, but want to try to make use of the time by talking about his most likely further attack vectors. This is the first post of what will most likely become a series of posts over the next few days.


I. Nemo’s aims – what is he after.

In order to do this, let’s first have a look at what Nemo did so far. In my opinion, there are two goals he seems to have followed on the map: a) separation of theaters and b) collecting HI points.

What are the purposes of following these goals? Well, both of them will make Japan last longer, which in turn I believe to be the ultimate purpose of this mod. Nemo keeps saying about it that it is designed to delay the point of time when the Allies start to come back by 6 to 9 months and to allow the Japanese player to stay “moderately competitive” against the Allies, which “in stock start running from easy victory to easy victory”.

a) will make it much more difficult for me to create a real Schwerpunkt once I get the troops to do so. Actually, I feel already some of these problems when trying to keep my bases in supply and moving troops entering the map from the east – my transport capacity is not sufficient to do what I need to do, much less what I would like to do. With PH contained and some key locations of the line islands with lvl 4 AFs occupied, I have to take a long detour. I am currently analyzing under which conditions it may be viable to eliminate at least the choke points on the line islands, it must be done in a well phased op paralleling other significant events on the map, as I will have problems to provide sufficient air cover for such an op due to lack of CVs.

b) is a must for the Japanese player in this mod in order not to go bankrupt by getting too much of the nice toys. A bit earlier in this thread the high number of additional tank units Nippon gets was mentioned. I am not good at the economic part of this game (which is why I prefer to play the Allies – perhaps Damian can correct me if I’m wrong), but if I calculate correctly, to be able to really equip them the starting vehicle production must be more than tripled. Yes, he can get many nice additional ships including CVs, but they, too, require HI points.

Note that I think that we do not play for points and that we will ignore autovictory, when (most likely more appropriate than if) it pops up; thus collecting VP locations is not an aim. Also, Aden is off-limits for him, thus complete denial of the British reinforcements is not possible. He promised not to take all of CONUSA as well. Actually, I am not sure whether the attempt to do so would really serve his purpose – my reinforcements are moved up 6 months in this case, and Nemo himself keeps telling me that things will get better for me once 43 has come.

As I mentioned earlier, this is different for Panama, and this location would be a really bad blow as it would block the arrival of many heavy surface units, which in turn I am desperately short of already. However, I think Panama is not likely to become one of the next targets, as I will detail later in this series.

Potentially, there is also one other thing which will make the Japanese last longer – destruction of Allied assets. However, I presently do not see a really tempting target which might serve that purpose other than maybe hunting down my remaining CVs and while I think that Nemo will take any chance to make sure destruction of assets is achieved as a side effect of his ops I do not think he will follow this as a primary target.

If you see any other relevant aim, please let me know.

To be continued…
Hartwig

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

Out of sequence I got a question for those of you who have some experience with this mod, specifically as Japan. I would like to know more about “general” supply situation and self-sufficiency of invasions a) in order to get a feeling whether supply situation is a limiting factor for the expansions/invasions Nemo can support and b) in order to find out whether there are important shipping lanes which I can harass a bit and/or onto which I may be able to project a threat.

I assume that at least once it is taken India is self-sufficient or maybe even net exporters of supplies. The SRI probably is anyway. Nemo will probably need to push supplies down to support the bases in Solomons and Noumea area and to the islands in CentPac. How about Russia, bearing in mind the “off limits” line (northern Russia may not be taken). Australia probably is not, not is NZ. Did I miss something ? All info is appreciated.

Thanks
Hartwig.

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

this is the second post in the „Nemo’s future plans“ series.

As pointed out in my first post relating to this topic, I believe that Nemo may be following two aims:

a) separation of theaters and b) collecting HI points.

Relating to the separation of theaters, Nemo already achieved

1) Cutting off the Alaska-Russia-Connection
2) Interdicting movement of ground troops between India (which is in principle still connected via air stransport to China, which does not help much because supply situation in China is so bad and I do not have airlift capacity there – thus probably no chance to beef up the India defense as quickly as would be required with Chinese hordes) and Russia.
3) Isolating PH
4) increasing travel time for shipping form CONUSA/Panama to NZ/OZ considerably by taking all of the New Hebrides and essential places in the line Islands (specifically Palmyra, Christmas Island).

Thus, what is left to be done for him in turns of a) ? There are two prominent targets, both of which are related to the isolation of OZ:

Perth (which will separate OZ from Aden, make it difficult to make use of the forces arriving at said place and block supplying OZ from the west)

NZ. If NZ is taken, supplying OZ from the east will not be possible any more.

As I mentioned several times, Panama may be a good place to strike at as well in terms of a) – cutting Atlantic and Pacific, thus denying me important naval assets, but, as explained later, I do not believe this is an immediate threat.

In principle, tanking PH might become an option at some point of time as well – this would allow him a more effective defense of the bases around that place if/when I come at him. But I believe that he will let me starve there longer first; right now he can use his troops more efficiently elsewhere.

Relating next to the collection of HI points, well – I think he has or will have most of what is on the map. He could roll up China with troops freed when he has conquered Russia as far as he is allowed to – but I am not sure whether this is worth enough to do it now. In the long run, of course he would get a connected land empire. Also, he may do that with the assets he has in China already – as I said, supply situation in China is desperate and he is bound to know that. I would probably tend not to use the troops freed in Russia there, but rather elsewhere on the map.

Other than that, there is OZ, specifically SE Australia. I do not see many other places where he could harvest more HI points.

Did I miss anything ? If so, please let me know/ contribute your ideas.

To be continued...

Thanks for your interest and input

Hartwig

[n01487477]

Hartwig in response to some of your questions

I calculate between 17 ~ 19K HI is needed for full production, depending on engine and air frame production, but I've been able to get away with about 15K turning off many later model CV's, reducing my overall Naval and Ship building and skimping on Arm and Veh production. At the beginning of the game -
Japan and territories(Vietnam, Thai etc)
12061 HI 20512 Res

Region HI ResC (you need to halve the HI shown here as it is captured)
Russia 1421 3428
India 2415 5581
Burma 50 1195
NZ 111 3927
HK 200 90
SRA/Dei 600 3700
Phili 150 316
New Caledonia 0 588 - nice little supply dump[;)]

So while Nemo will still have to build some HI, if he has captured about 2500 HI he is in fine shape to do as he wishes, plus the resource->supply capture will allow him to quickly build and maintain the supplies he needs. BTW each Angels mission I fly with about 120 bombers costs me ~2000K supplies a pop!

I've had to build most of my HI and so I can't comment too much on the realistic supply situation Nemo faces, but I would imagine that he is doing pretty well ... on the other hand this economic mod doesn't let you rest, upgrades mean changes to the engine facilities and there are many models that are start ups, so mostly they all need to be built - depending on what Nemo decides to forgo. The large LB (6 engined) use huge resources.

Position about day 200 (which I calculate you are near June'42 ??)
I am going to talk about reinforcements mostly here - so even though the Japanese get 11 Tank Reg/Brg from day one - the good news is that the Japanese have most of their tank lcu's ... the bad news is that there are a few large ones to come ...

Arm and Vehicle production is extremely high for the 3 largest Tank Div Japan needing 19000 Veh Points each, the many Inf.Motorized Brigades around 11000 each & the 2 smaller Tank Brigades 10000 each.

So by day 200, the Japanese need 35000 Veh points, but by day 275 75,000 - this is without replacing losses etc. So an aggregate of 272 Veh points/day must be built to ensure full equipping - which comes back to the original post about 3 times as much is needed compared to other std mods... This statement is relatively true - if you don't consider replacements.

If NZ is taken, supplying OZ from the east will not be possible any more.

Perth is vital to maintaining that link & would be my next target, but it runs the risk of not enough map space...

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

@Damian: thanks for the detailed answers. Very helpful input.

Other than that, this is just a small update for those of you waiting for news from the front - there are none. Still waiting to get turn 3 back... Which is not bad, because you all have noticed by now that I am always a bit short of time to play and post. Pity, but cannot be changed... Thus, I am happy with a slow game - even though I long for 43 to arrive.

As you may be aware, Nemo has opened a (strategy/principles) discussion thread open to both sides, for which I used my opportunities to post in the last few days. I think it's interesting and even tried to make it amusing to some extent.

I hope that some time today or tomorrow I will be able to continue my analysis of Nemo's intentions, but again this is not a promise. As to Damians expectations that the next target may be Perth: This may be subject to a prerequisite. I think Exmouth should be LVL4 and stocked with supplies and fuel before he does this - right now, it went to LVL3 last turn (in spite of the heroic 4 hits achieved by my heavy bombers). But I will say more about what I think on this subject in a later post.

That's it for now - tank you for your continued interest, even though things are developing
s
l
o
w
l
y

here.

Hartwig

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

I found a new turn in my mailbox just a few minutes ago. Nemo still seems to have save problems with his new computer and had to do this one twice.

The best news is that there are no real bad news this turn. Actually, there is one little operation which worked the way I wanted today... I went for a little 150 fighter sweep over Hailar... Here's some help to remember where that is - follow the blue arrow.



These are the results:

[font="Courier New"]Day Air attack on Hailar [Manchukuo] , at 63,22

Japanese aircraft
Ki-109E Mike x 24

Allied aircraft
I-16 Type 24 x 54
MiG-3 x 95
R-12 x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-109E Mike: 22 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
I-16 Type 24: 3 destroyed
MiG-3: 8 destroyed, 1 damaged[/font]

Production-wise, I am not sure whether this is a good deal. I need 6 days to get the MiGs back, how many does he need ? If he produces just 100/month, he will need about the same time. I assume he produces more, thus he will be back to strength earlier than me. But I want to make him feel the need to protect a base a) with a reasonable number of planes or b) not at all. Numbers of 24, I intend to blast out of the sky from time to time.

To increase the number of available targets in need of protection, I have sent a bit of AV support to Tamsa (blue circle), which is a neat LVL4 field with a decent amount of supplies still on it. From there, I started a bit of strategic bombing (Nemo said that's ok as long as I don't bring US bombers to non-coastal soviet bases) - unfortunately totally unsuccessful, but hopefully still sending a message:

[font="Courier New"]Day Air attack on Fushun [Manchukuo] , at 60,31


Allied aircraft
SB-2M x 31


No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x SB-2M bombing at 10000 feet
8 x SB-2M bombing at 5000 feet
3 x SB-2M bombing at 5000 feet
8 x SB-2M bombing at 10000 feet
3 x SB-2M bombing at 10000 feet
3 x SB-2M bombing at 5000 feet[/font]

In Fushun, Nemo has set up a little production facility for Mikes, which was subject to my bombing efforts...

What is nice about Tamsag is that it is dificult to reach "on foot" and that a number of interesting targets are in range. I hope to start hitting something at some point of time, so he will hopefully decide he just cannot ignore this and needs to protect.

Still at the same time, of course he may want to interdict my transports. I had to pull out some of my fighter protection for these transports in order to concentrate a sufficient number of MiG 3, and at once intercept messages started to pop up.

Thus, I will try to make him either dilute his fighters or reinforce them. Yet another alternative is, of course, to send some paras to Tamsag. Which is fine as well, for then he will not be able to use them at a place where I would fear them more. I just need to be careful that I do not lose the squadrons based there in this case. The AV support is expendable...

This is my little update for tonight - more news from the battlefield to follow.

Thanks for your interest

Hartwig

[Alfred]

Why do you need to rest your MiGs for 6 days.  He had only one unit of Mikes at the base, and according to your info that was obliterated.  You on the other hand used multiple units of MiGs.  Now that you have revealed your hand, you must keep up the operational tempo and launch another sweep immediately with the Polikarpov fighters and at least one of the MiG units - rotate your units into action but without removing them from the front line.  Follow up with a bombing raid to crater the airfield.  Repeat until air superiority is established.
 
Alfred

[modrow]

Alfred,

thanks for your advice. Maybe I did not make a sufficiently clear statement, because you seem to misread my intention.

6 days has nothing to do with the question when I strike again, which will definitely be sooner - specifically, at the next opportunity. However, if I were Nemo, I would strive to set a fighter trap, thus not each situation that looks like an opportunity will be one. Specifically, the doctrinally logical next step will be seen, will have been considered and preempted by him.

He can concentrate fighters almost arbitrarily, I cannot (see below). The good result I obtained is only because big numbers of planes ran into small numbers of planes. If he does concentrate, however, presently he will not be able to keep everything capped (his advancing troops partly were so far - maybe soon they will not be any more...).

The 6 days are the time it takes until my losses are produced again. Even a series of tactical victories can lead to defeat, if it keeps wearing your troops down while inflicting losses the enemy can replace but you cannot. Hannibal got effectively weaker in Italy while scoring a series of great victories. As he was not resupplied adequateply and could not replace his losses effectively, he lost his advantage, because the Romans could do that. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on this aspect. Not everything which looks like a victory truly is one.

The Migs belong to the best fighters I have available right now. The question is: Do I use them for something significant, or do I squander them away to obtain something which is potentially not essential while inflicting only losses the enemy can afford if by doing so he draws another tooth or claw.

Air superiority: a nice idea, but can it be realized now ? I have a limited number of fighters available in the theater, without much of a possibility to move additional squadrons to Russia. Rotation - in general a good idea, but I do not have the number of fighters to set up two significant strike forces. Even 150 planes is not as much as I would like to field. 150 planes are more then twice as effective as 75 would be due to the A2A model.

Nemo probably starts from a bigger basis of fighters anyway, he can concentrate and pour in additional fighters arbitrarily. If he wants 500 fighters there, he can have that. I cannot.

My available bomber force is rather - well, pathetic seems to be the right word - look at what they achieved in their strategic bombing attempts so far. Nothing I expect to be able to close down a field. I think, for now it will have to be hit and run, to force him to reinforce the theater if he wants to keep everything covered or to accept losses.

But to come back to your first issue: I will try to keep a high operational tempo and definitely not wait each time till the losses are refilled.

Hartwig

[JeffroK]

To add to Alfred's list.

9.     Never play anyone on their own mod.  This one, with the HR mentioned, seem sculpted to Nemo's style of play.

[Alfred]

hartwig.modrow,

You are theorising too much, looking too much at "doctrinal" responses, at the expense of looking at the practical in this game/mod.  Do not assume that I am unaware that "a series of tactical victories can lead to defeat", but you should also note that a series of tactical defeats can lead to victory.

Firstly, you seem too concerned that your opponent may set up a fighter trap.  So what?  Stop and analyse your concerns for a moment more deeply than the somewhat superficial level which you appear to have done so to date.  Ask yourself the following:

(a) how long before sufficient (and which types of) enemy fighters could be flown in to construct the trap?
(b) where would the fighters come from and where would the gaps now be created?
(c) does he have the PPs to spend to convert incoming fighters to Manchukuo Command?
(d) on what basis can he find 500 fighters, what would be left to support his schwerpunkt operations?
(e) does it really matter if he shoots down a lot of Polikarpov fighters?  After all you obviously think there is a better use for the Polikarpovs.

Secondly, your MiGs are a wasting asset even if you do not use them in combat.  Your fear of squandering them reflects your theorising too much and not looking at the practical considerations.  Consider the following:

(a) the MiGs are short legged and difficult to use offensively in Siberia.  Sweeps from Borzay over Hailar is one of the few places where they can be used offensively
(b)  you will shortly lose your airfields east of Borzay, so please explain how you will then get value out of these planes when the airfields are lost, particularly remembering the "bug" which affects Japanese air attacks on Siberian bases
(c) you will have plenty of time to rebuild their stocks when you run out of airfields to base them

Thirdly, so what if your bomber force is currently anemic.  They need to fly missions to increase their experience which in turn will make their attacks increasingly more effective.  If not in Siberia (following up on successful fighter sweeps), where else could they be deployed?  In your soon to be lost airfields in India?  Your supply poor Chinese airfields?  Can they reach Australia or the West Coast and even then, against what targets would they be able to practise on and gain experience?

Alfred 

[modrow]

Alfred,

thanks for your input. As always, good questions to consider, and I appreciate your clear attempts to prod me in the right direction. In fact, your analysis that I may tend to theorize too much is correct, I definitely need to be put back to the ground from time to time and am aware that one of the aspects where I need to invest a lot of effort to improve is the transfer of valid theoretical approaches to the WitP map and engine.

Interestingly, I seem to see a number of essential issues quite different than you, which may on the one hand be based on my wrong interpretation of identical facts (which you can hopefully correct) and on the other hand be based on the fact that we have a different set of facts available to work with, because I have the full information the map can provide and you can just use the scarce bits of information which I provide. In general, I would love to post more details of what is going on during the turns here, but my schedule in real life does not permit.

I have started to work on a detailed response, but it is going to take more time. It was just important to me to let you know that your thoughts are considered and appreciated.

Thanks

Hartwig

[modrow]

JeffK

ORIGINAL: JeffK

To add to Alfred's list.

9.     Never play anyone on their own mod.  This one, with the HR mentioned, seem sculpted to Nemo's style of play.

actually, I think that depends on what you are after. Nemo offered to continue the game that I picked up with swapped sides, but I declined because I have my hands full without running an economy. He does very well as Allied in the game against Damian by mid 42. Therefore, this is definitely not a one-sided mod.

If you are ready to accept a set of rules and try to make the best of it/to adapt to these rules and make them work for you, then I think you should. I am having fun.

Hartwig

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

JeffK

ORIGINAL: JeffK

To add to Alfred's list.

9.     Never play anyone on their own mod.  This one, with the HR mentioned, seem sculpted to Nemo's style of play.

actually, I think that depends on what you are after. Nemo offered to continue the game that I picked up with swapped sides, but I declined because I have my hands full without running an economy. He does very well as Allied in the game against Damian by mid 42. Therefore, this is definitely not a one-sided mod.

If you are ready to accept a set of rules and try to make the best of it/to adapt to these rules and make them work for you, then I think you should. I am having fun.

Hartwig

I'm sure Nemo knows the ins and outs of both sides, you are picking up after he has done his best to gut the Allies. I'm sure if side had started reversed it would be the same situation for an incoming Allied player.

But, as you say you are there for the fun, enjoy and learn what you can from the situation you are in.

[modrow]

Alfred,

As promised, a more detailed response. I think it may show that our different views are due to different interpretation of identical facts rather than my not looking at facts in depth, and I will gladly accept if you explain to me why my assessment of these facts is wrong. I want to learn.

Let us try to go through this systematically. It may be that if you had the information I have due to the map info and full combat events some of your assessments might be different.

I. Let me first point out briefly where we agree completely:

I.1 I am fully aware that the MiGs will be difficult to use in the future and thus using them now may be the only chance to use them. I think I have pointed out several times in this thread (or at least I intended to) that Nemo has cleverly intersected the different theaters, thus I cannot move units as I would like to – be assured I am most painfully aware of this. But you argue as if the airfields east of Borzya were already lost. As of yet Choybalsan and Hailar are not the only places against which sweeps may be initiated. Nemo has had CAP over Choybalsan, Hailar, Heiho according to the results of recon planes. He was LRCapping at least Kuysyshevka and some of his units that are moving towards Skovorodino as well. Therefore, there are a number of places where these planes can be used now. Once the more eastern airstrips are lost, which will happen, as you indicate correctly, I see your argument. Then, the number of options will be reduced and it will be important to use the MiGs while one can.

I.2 As a follow up on the separation of theaters, I might only be able to transfer SB2-Ms to the East – DBs are immobilized by Nemo’s clever choice of bases to take. We agree that India and China are not an option. I believe that presently the bombers are best used in Russia. As a matter of fact, they are used – for strategic bombing, going after HI, resources and – if possible – AC factories. I showed that in my view on the recent events in Russia.

Now you may say “but that shows only 31 bombers flying ! – there are many more in the OOB”. Well, when I took over this OOB was already “a bit” reduced and dispersed to other theaters. There are Russian bomber units in India and Aden. I have maybe 60 operational level bombers in Russia and ordered about 50 of them to fly – and this is the number which followed my orders. Also, I have a higher number of DBs which suffer from very bad morale and are trying to recover from that in order to be used – e.g. against ground units, specifically once these are no longer LRCapped by Nemo. Which will happen if he concentrates his fighters. Which he will if he sees that small CAPs are blown out of the sky at exchange rates which hurt him more than me. Note that I believe that the problems of closing an airbase are not mainly due to lack of experience (70ish) but number of planes and bombs per plane available.

II. Next, let us discuss problems where I need additional detailed tutoring from you because I cannot follow your reasoning. You suggest to use repeated, smaller scale sweeps and “cratering” the AF at Hailar in order to reach air superiority there. I do not see the full advantage of the operation you propose. You talked about achieving air superiority by a repetitive, thus predictable and therefore by definition vulnerable process. Before I enter this process, I must know whether a) obtaining air superiority at Hailar is important (i.e. is it worth doing it) b) whether I can keep up with it until this aim is achieved in spite of possible counter-moves. If the aim is not important or not likely to be achievable, I don’t run the op but think of a better one.

II.1 With respect to a), frankly I am lost. The only thing I can come up with is that one may consider Hailar to be the likely base from which the next wave of paratroopers will necessarily start when Nemo gets his Para division a few days from now (see more discussion below). Will it thwart his plans if I block Hailar ? Why should he not use just another base ? Why is achieving local air superiority over that base important ?

II.2 With respect to b), I am puzzled as well. You seem to think Hailar is important according to a). In addition, you seem to believe that I can achieve air superiority with a limited amount of maybe 200 fighters without a chance to reinforce them in a theater that may be reinforced at will by the enemy and that is important.

You say, >1000 land based fighters at other places on the map will not be enough to support Nemo’s Schwerpunkt and create gaps. You did not say that ? Well, that’s what Nemo would have left on map after moving 500 planes to Russia, which you seem to believe not achievable when analyzing the facts.

As you will have found when looking in depth at the facts, Nemo has probably 1500-1700 land based fighters on the map (48 units to begin with with an assumed average of 25 planes each plus about 400 additional fighters received so far). Active use of these planes occurs in China (training), India (escort/sweep with hardly any engagements at present), Alaska (escort/cap) and Russia. 1000-1200 land based planes plus his CV based wings to support Nemo’s ops outside of Russia looks to me like something he could live with, even if assuming 200 will be used to beef up his carrier CAP.

Why did I say 500, not 1000? Well, you mentioned the considerations one has to factor in in your own post. You do use a different threshold which Nemo should not fall below than I do though. Seems high to me, but I will gladly learn – please elaborate.

III. Relating to the possibility of a fighter trap, I can provide you with these bits of information to answer your questions:

III.1 First of all, note that I did not use the number 500 fighters for the trap but for the analysis whether or not air superiority in this theater can be achieved.

III.2 If I would do an all-out effort, I assume 200 to 250 Japanese fighters would be sufficient to break it, and Nemo should be aware of that. I did not show my hand, he knows the fighter assets of the Russians in the theater, because I believe I cannot get additional fighters there (I wanted to transfer what is left of the India theater fighter wings to Russia to surprisingly shift the balance there a bit, but did not find a viable route).

III.3 Nemo has had CAP over Choybalsan, Hailar, Heiho according to the results of recon planes. He was LRCapping at least Kuysyshevka and some of his units that are moving towards Skovorodino as well. There are at least 5-6 Daitais working in the theater already – CAP probably mostly Mikes, LRCAP Zekes. That’s 150 planes on missions in the theater which just need to be concentrated. Even if he does not have theater reserve (which he may have) moving in 3 to 4 additional Daitais of Zekes (transfer range 33 hexes) are sufficient. You can find these easily in the home Islands and/or China. Cost should be about 450 PP (4 per plane). Nippon starts with 12000 PP and gets 150 PP per turn. Unrealistic, if you think about it looking at the facts ? I looked at the facts and think this can be done easily . Specifically if Nemo did what he should have done –i.e. transfer planes to unrestricted commands to create a mobile force to send to any theater if needed. He can use planes not assigned to the local command at the Russian front.

IV. You ask whether it matters whether I lose many Polykarpovs or not. I believe it does for two reasons: a) because they can beef up the number of planes I use and b) because even Polykarpovs can influence whether transport planes fly and/or intercept them. Let me explain these reasons in some more detail.

IV.1 Relating to a), as far as I understand the A2A model (which you may do much better, if that is the case please elaborate) the relative strength of the opposing forces is quite important and may even superimpose effects of plane quality. Sorry to get theoretical again, but that's also what Lanchester's square law indicates should happen, which e.g. Nemo believes to hold quite well in this combat model, and the little testing I have done so far did not show that is not correct. To me, this means that an addition of this "bad" fighter plane to the Migs which increases their number will help with overall performance notably.

IV.2 Relating to b), be aware that Nemo gets his Para division in a few days. The way to go to declaw the bear is in my opinion taking (at least) one of the bases WEST of Borzya with Paras, fly in a decent amount of ground troops so they will not be dislodged easily and voila... we have a huge prisoner camp full of hungry troops. Any evacuated fragments will not even rebuild –great ! That is the most dangerous development in this theater, which must be prevented. I think even Polykarpovs on CAP can do their share to prevent this. Also, as you pointed out yourself and the last turn showed, I need fighters to cover airlifting units that are cut off out of the Kessel. My number of fighters is that limited already that if I concentrate them for an attack, not all other operations are fully covered. Thus yes, to me losing Polykarpovs matters in the present situation.

V. As always, please intervene if you believe any of these assessments is wrong. Specifically, I would appreciate additional information concerning these issues:

V.1 why is Hailar that important ?
V.2 why are 1000 fighters insufficient to support another Schwerpunkt and provide sufficient cover for other parts of the map ?
V.3 why do you believe Lanchester’s square law is wrong or at least not applicable for WitP A2A combat ?
V.4 why do you believe the Polykarpovs cannot be used to modify the CAP balance in order to keep planes from flying or make planes fly ? Actually, if any of my readers knows details on how this is calculated, this is an aspect of the engine I would like to know more about.

Thanks in advance. I appreciate your stimulating contributions.

Hartwig

[Alfred]

hartwig.modrow,
 
Before dealing directly with your 4 specific issues, a few preliminary points are in order.
 
Firstly, I think you would profit from rereading my earlier posts which are not particularly prescriptive but flow organically from your own post facto divulged plans and actions.  I try to refrain from being too prescriptive precisely because I don't have access to the data as you do.  Rather I try to higlight parameters which may have been overlooked or insufficiently addressed.
 
Secondly, you are still relying too much on theoretical generalisations rather than concrete assessment.  For example, when referring to Nemo having 1500-1700 land based fighters on map, that figure is almost meaningless.  Even the more relevant figure of 48 fighter units is of limited value.  The appropriate assessment must be made on the basis of:
 
(a) how many Zero, Claude, Nate, Oscar, Mike etc units are there
(b) where are the units located
(c) what are the production rates for each
(d) which are his defensive (including in depth providing LRCAP to his frontline) and offensive (against Allied assets) air bases
(e) exactly which enemy air units are not actually engaged in current operations
 
etcetera
 
When you have done that exercise, then we can see whether he has 500 underemployed fighter units which he could move to create a fighter trap.  Of course he can move 500 or more fighters to Siberia if he wishes, but until you embark upon a micro assessment as would an accountant, you have not established that he would not have to divert units from more important tasks.
 
Also you do not seem to have grasped that Nemo uses his sea based air qualitatively differently from his land based air.  Thus it is inappropriate to lump together his sea and land based air into global totals.
 
Thirdly, you appear to have lost your earlier stated appetite to launch poor operations in order to mislead your opponent, or to engage in maskirovka operations.  If you were to read my comments more closely, you would realise that I provide justification for specific operations along these lines.  It may be that as english is not your native language (although you do have an excellent command of it), you do not pick up all my nuances.
 
To deal directly with your specified issues.
 
V.1  Why is Hailar that important?
 
I never said it was.  If you go back to previous posts, you will see that I had suggested using your fighters primarily in point defence (to cover air transports etc).  It was you who decided to concentrate them to fly a sweep over Hailar.  Only then, when it seemed you were about to slow down markedly the tempo of operations, in an area where you had now disclosed to the enemy your interest by conducting offensive operations without any corresponding supporting operations in any other theatre, and it appeared that you had achieved a local victory, did I suggest how you might reinforce that success or maintain your own morale.
 
But now that you have raised it, there is an importance to Hailar, which your latest discussion suggests to me has been overlooked.  The Borzay-Hailar axis is the key one for Soviet offensive operations.  Why is Hailar important?
 
(a)  if you gain air superiority over Hailar, you (i) largely remove the enemy capacity to interdict your LOC behind Borzay (which is irrelevant where the Siberian air bug applies) (ii) you can materially assist Soviet besieging forces in Hailar by launching CAS.
(b)  you can use MiGs offensively against Hailar in a combined offensive arms operation - that option is not available elsewhere
(c)  even if both (a) and (b) above do not appeal, air operations over Hailar can serve as a maskirovka (much as I previously suggested Exmouth would serve if you felt disinclined to attempt to recapture it)
(d)  Hailar is the base of the enemy salient in Siberia and therefore any operations directed against it will attract Nemo's attention.  You like to discuss theory/doctine, thus you understand that a salient is best attacked at its base, not its shoulder.  Do you now grasp why I previously recommended calling off the rescue thrust from Skovorodino, air evacuating your Amur defenders and concentrating on Borzay?
 
V.2  why are 1000 fighters insufficient to support another Schwerpunkt and provide sufficient cover for other parts of the map?
 
First do the micro assessment referred to above in order for a detailed and informed discussion to occur.  In its absence, consider the following.
 
(a)  the more useful global figure is 48 fighter units.  Nemo does not appear to favour sub-dividing his air units, it is against his principle of concentration of mass, thus 48 remains the operational number
(b)  Nemo takes great pride in achieving economy in deployments (particularly defensive), thus the fact that he had only 1 Mike unit at Hailar suggests that (i) he felt it was adequate, and (ii) the units not found at Hailar were already usefully engaged elsewhere on other tasks eg LRCAP over Soviet Siberian bases
(c)  at this stage of the war, Nemo really has no available suitable IJA offensive fighter types.  Sure, the Mike is a great fighter but he uses it fundamentally defensively - its offensive impact is just like that of the DAK's 88s.
(d)  assume I am totally wrong and that Nemo can fly in significant numbers of fighters from elsewhere without giving you an opportunity to exploit their absence elsewhere.  Nemo will be reacting to you, you will (i) have commenced taking the first steps towards wrestling the initiative away from him, (ii) forced him to make choices which he would ideally not need to make.  Isn't that consistent with your previously declared intentions?  Or were you merely extolling theory with no real idea as to how to put into praxis your musings?
 
V.3 why do you believe Lanchester's square law is wrong or at least not applicable for WITP A2A combat?
 
Where have I said that.  You must quote me in order to support such an assertion.
 
That you have made such an assertion (together with your comments made regarding the Polikarpovs in the body of your post) is clear evidence to me that you have not fully understood what I have actually posted.  In posts #68 and #71, I specifically urged you to employ the Polikarpovs (with no mention of resting any of those units).  You are too thoughtful a player for me to believe that you somehow believe I think the Polikarpovs have such excellent flying characteristics against Mikes (or any reinforcing land based Zeros) that they can compete on equal terms on a 1:1 basis.  How anyone reads my comments on Polikarpovs as evidence for me believing Lanchester's law to be wrong, escapes me.
 
There is another point I will make here in response to your comments in the body of your posts, even though it might be better made elsewhere.  Again check your HRs.  It had been the intention that both sides units (both land and air) would be assigned to the Commands they were stationed eg an Allied air unit sent from San Francisco to Pearl Harbor would pay the PPs to be assigned the new command.  If say three months later the same air unit were then sent from Pearl Harbor to Brisbane, again the appropriate PPs would be expended to assign it to the new command...and if in another three months it again was moved back to Pearl Harbor, PPs would be expended.  In other words, the intention was to avoid having a mega Richthofen Flying Circus able to fly at will anywhere.  If Nemo flys in to Manchukuo Command units from another command, he should pay the PPs.  Those same units if withdrawn from Manchuria and sent to another command, would again have to pay the PPs for their reassignment.
 
V.4  why do you believe that the Polikarpovs cannot be used to modify the CAP balance...
 
 Again where have I said so.  See in particular my response in the first paragraph under section V.1 above.
 
 
There are several points made in the body of your last post which I could respond to, but I think you would be better off revisiting them yourself after reading this reply and revisiting earlier posts made here and in other AARs.  This is your game and there is a definite limit as to how prescriptive I can be.  It is not necessary for both of us to agree, what is important is that you can objectively justify your decisions.
 
Alfred

[modrow]

Alfred,

once again an excellent post. I really want to stress that I appreciate the way to keep on providing things to think upon and prodding me in the right direction. I will respond once again more detailed when I have the time; but note that I do not do this to defend myself or prove you wrong, but rather to show the lines along which I am thinking and inviting comments leading to different angles of aspect and better thinking. Still, a few preliminary comments:

There is one bit I want to stress first of all. You mentioned in your post

Or were you merely extolling theory with no real idea as to how to put into praxis your musings?

I would rephrase this a bit, I think it is not far away from reality and this is one of the major problems my advisors will have to suffer from: I am extolling theory with vague ideas how to put this best into praxis. I have no idea whether they work in WitP and/or against this formidable opponent. They may be simply wrong and/or even stupid. If a real idea is one which is known to work, then yes, that is exactly what I am doing. That's also why I am doing this: to learn. I don't claim I can play this game well or my ops are flawlessly planned or reasonably executed. I leave that claim to others. I play this game to improve.

You are also correct that English is not my mother tongue, I definitely miss some aspects of what you say and may also imply things which I do not wish to say. E.g., I was not aware of mixing up naval and land based air assets other than mentioning that Nemo routinely swaps strike planes from his CVs against additional fighters, which I think must come from land-based assets. The fighter numbers I gave are land based only. Or do you say Nemo uses IJN and IJA planes differently ? This is something I did mix. Another example for possible misunderstanding is that I want to differentiate between the number of planes needed for a fighter trap (which, as I tried to outline appears possible to me based on what is operating in the theater) and the possibility to bring in planes if it is crucial to maintain air superiority. A 500 plane fighter trap can probably not be set up in one turn. But as I wrote, a 500 plane fighter trap is not necessary. We will see what Nemo did when I get the turn back.

Re. accounting: Well... there are two aspects of this. First of all, I start a running business with empty books, if you understand what I want to say. I do not enjoy the information I would have if this would have been my game to start from. I could not track which unit has been deployed where (thus being able to estimate PPs currently on Nemo's account), which has been upgraded and which hasn't etc. I have started to collect that information though. But at present, I need to work with estimates. If these turn out to be wrong, I will correct.

At the same time, this thread suffers from general lack of time. I end up not writing half of what I want to write, which is just the most illustrative examples fo what occurs anyway. I am sure you know the OOB and are aware that there is quite a number of units starting as Claudes in it, which I assume will have been changed to Zekes now. Look at all that is begun but not completed... e.g., the "next targets" series is far from completed, I haven't really said much about the last turn either. There is much more to be said. Even relating to your last post, to which I will come back.

But for now, it is thanks for your comments and back to real life.

Hartwig

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

first of all a word of apology to all those of you who checked in vain for news from this war or additional strategy discussion posts in the last few days. I was mostly offline during the weekend and found little or no time to prepare a post. This post will most likely be no more than a teaser as well, but I just can’t stand my thread being on page 2 only…[8D]

This morning I found Nemo had sent a turn back, and a juicy one it was – mistakes on both sides, a heroic and successful Allied attack on Cuttack, a heroic and successful Allied defense of Karachi (as Nemo had forgotten to radio in his Air support and it seems like only part of his stack crossed the river) and a disaster in the air over Hailar (as I had forgotten to stand down one unit of I16 which swept on into a wall of planes, though not as many as I had expected, and suffered significant losses[:@]).

I will show and comment a bit on the highlights in my next few posts which are likely to appear starting by tomorrow or so. Possibly, I will weave in a bit of last turn’s events which I wanted to tell about, and there are also a few more issues Alfred mentioned I would like to pick up. Last not least, there is still a continuation of the old “where will Nemo go next” series to be done. A lot to talk about in that little time – and on top of all of that, I will want to get the turn back to Nemo at some point of time. Well, let's see what I get done. As always, if anyone is interested in anything specific, let me know and I will try to provide that info.

As always, thanks for your interest

Hartwig

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

here is the first installment of a more detailed description of what happened last turn. My comments are incomplete inasfar as I did not manage to watch the full combat replay so far (the last 2 turns, we seemed to be in reasonable sync).

Let’s start with Hailar or, more generally, the air war in Russia, as this was a topic of intense discussions between Alfred and myself. As I mentioned in my short teaser post yesterday, I forgot to stand down some I16 from their sweep, which led to this combat:

[font="Courier New"] Day Air attack on Hailar [Manchukuo] , at 63,22
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zeke x 89
Ki-44IIa Tojo x 6
Ki-109E Mike x 29
Allied aircraft
I-16 Type 24 x 27
R-12 x 1
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zeke: 6 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
I-16 Type 24: 23 destroyed
[/font]

First of all: yes, I should be spanked for this negligence (but as usual, Nemo will take care of that).

Now, as we had been speculating a lot before, perhaps it is interesting to try to check out what happened in order to learn more a) about our (my) “enemy” b) thoughtful planning and c) what all of this may mean. To illustrate, I add a screenshot of the region of interest in Russia over a period of 3 days, in which I highlighted a few things which appear relevant to me. Sorry that it is not very beautiful, I am really bad with paint…



Evidently Nemo did feel the need to respond immediately with a massive reinforcement of fighters. I had assumed this, because my impression from AARs on his other wars is that he reacts switly on this type of provocation (“that’ll teach my opponent !”). It will be interesting to see if that can be used to stir him into rash action at a suitable opportunity. Apart from the Tojos, if I do the numbers correctly and not all the available planes fly (as usual) the fighter strength may correspond at least to 4 Daitai of Zekes and one Sentai of Mikes, thus my estimate what is working currently in the theater seems not to have been too far off. The Tojos might still be the experimental planes (Nippon starts with 15) and the holy tracker, which will hopefully also work with AE [&o], tells me 7 have been lost so far – thus it may be what is left of an upgraded 12 plane unit. On the other hand, the Tojo-IIa comes online in June, theoretically there may be the possibility that Nemo has accelerated it, but I don’t think this is probable.

At the same time, a look at the screenshot tells us that Alfred’s analysis was not far from the truth either. The concentration of fighters takes time, I don’t think Nemo brought additional fighters into the theater between June 3rd and 4th. If you compare the situation on the 3rd and on the 4th, you see that AC symbols disappeared from Heiho and went more pale in Harbin. This indicates that Nemo used only the assets available in the theater already (whose extent Alfred could not estimate, thus based on the information available to him his conclusion there would be no fighter trap was accurate); there was no major reinforcement of airforce in the theater in the turn we discussed about, which frankly, I had expected to take place. I was not guessing correctly there.

Btw, does anyone have an idea why Nemo did not use the AC from Choybalsan (I believe another Sentai of Mikes) as well ? Actually, I was toying with the idea in line with Alfred's advice to press on, but with a sweep on Choybalsan. In the end, I was too afraid that Nemo would think ahead another step, count on my avoiding Hailar e.g. due to the colour of the AC strength of Hailar base and LRCap that Choybalsan with the fighters concentrated at Hailar.

Between 4th and 5th of June, however, I think that Nemo poured additional AC into the theater. Cursor intel says there are still 189 fighters at Hailar, but additional AC symbols have (re-)appeared at Fushun and Heiho. I think that is a good thing –as Alfred outlined in one of his posts above. Nemo cannot use those planes elsewhere at the same time, and he is reacting to me. Part of that may be, because of course, once again I tried to make use of my few bombers in this theater – this time they hit something for a change [:D]:

[font="Courier New"]
Day Air attack on Anshan [Manchukuo] , at 58,31
Allied aircraft
SB-2M x 27
No Allied losses
Heavy Industry hits 4
[/font]

I truly like it when Nemo loses HI points... even if it is only a few, every single one counts !

The planes fly, as mentioned previously, from Fuchun (sp?), the Russian base 2 hexes NW of Arsnaan. Nemo has told me explicitly that he does not mind my doing a little strategic bombing in spite of the bug that eliminates the solution of the problem by closing down the airstrip from the air. Actually, this was what made me start using my planes in the theater more actively - thus less gentlemanlike. But this is a war, and special times need special measures, don't they ?

From that base, I have a lot of interesting targets for strategic bombing in range, thus it is difficult to defend them all against my bombers and hopefully I will continue to do some damage. Of course, Nemo can decide to get rid of this nuisance any time – but the road connection to the base seems not to be too good, thus I think he may have to use paras. Which can also be used at one place at a time only.

Ok, that’s all I wanted to say about Hailar for now.

Thanks for your interest. As always, I am open for comments and suggestions how I can improve and/or how Nemo's empire may be brought down...

Hartwig

[modrow]

Gentlemen,

some more comments, specifically relating to nuisance raids and the like.

Alfred assumed in one of his recent posts that I appear to have lost my earlier stated appetite to launch poor operations in order to mislead my opponent.

This impression may only be partly true. Look, e.g. at this brand new, shiny reinvasion of India (unfortunately the ship carrying it was bombed yesterday and sunk this turn, thus it is smaller than scheduled):



What is it good for ? Good question. Let’s see whether we manage to chase some of Nemo’s LCUs around and maybe even take a base. Like this turn:

[font="Courier New"]
Ground combat at Cuttack [India]
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 16 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1
Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 0
Allied max assault: 0 - adjusted assault: 2
Japanese max defense: 0 - adjusted defense: 1
Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)
Allied forces CAPTURE Cuttack [India] base !!!
[/font]

By retaking Cuttack, I did not achieve much other than reducing the (small) economic assets at that base and rendering some of what remains damaged. When Nemo takes the base back, he will do some more damage. As I said in my last post: every little bit counts. And in addition, it is a message that bases should be garrisoned.

What I tried to do right at the beginning of this game (i.e. after taking over) was use the shipping left at Karachi and Diamond Harbor in order to attempt to stir up some trouble and confusion. This shipping capacity was basically already lost anyway, and wasting a few fragments of units which otherwise would become POWs soon does not hurt me either. In Karachi, I tried to manage to transport some more fragments to Aden. It was likely that Nemo had some naval strike AC at hand to thwart this evident move, thus I routed some ships south to the excellent railroad ending in the middle of nowhere. Strike AC from Bombay interfered a bit, but here I am with an extra invasion… plus kept those naval strike assets busy at their station, thus not moving elsewhere.

From Diamond harbor, I started TFs which were to make the units at Madras mobile (sunk before achieving anything), invest Viza (beached but probably doomed, I will know next turn), make the units at Cuttack mobile (beached, but Nemo eliminated those forces before the effect was achieved). The shipping used is mostly sunk by now as well. When Nemo surprisingly decided to leave Cuttack ungarrisoned, I decided to accept this present. Nemo seems not to like these thrusts, because he has devoted AC to port attacks against the shipping left at Diamond Harbor. Which is fine, it takes pressure of Calcutta and most of you will have despaired when hoping for significant damage from port attacks against few ships in a big port.[8D]

Whereas the India theater is quite active in this respect and I have some ideas how to try to keep it that way after a short break which cannot be avoided, others are not or not to a comparable extent (e.g. I do hit Effate on a regular basis). This is partly a question of preparing and phasing these operations. At most places, I need shipping capacity to do any kind of operation of this type, and I do not have that available at most of the places where I need it. I would have liked to follow Alfreds advice to act more parallel; but in India I had to act immediately or lose the assets employed now anyway.

At the same time, I do not want to waste the future operations in other regions as completely isolated single shots but rather grouped; they are more valuable when run in a more concentrated ways. Thus, even ops which I might be able to start in a turn or two will probably wait a few turns longer in order to achieve a bigger overall impact on Nemo.

Thus no, Alfred, the appetite is not lost and I still think this is a way to go – but implementation is more difficult than I had realized at first due to some serious limitations of shipping capacity, specifically at some places. I may even have found another interesting target for a Maskirovka kind of operation, but need to do some more “homework” first before presenting the concept.

Thanks for your interest – as always, feel free to comment

Hartwig