Against the Wind: Cuttlefish (Japan) vs. Q-Ball (Allies)

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]I have seen war, and faced modern artillery, and I know what an outrage it is against simple men.[/font]
- T.M. Kettle: The Ways of War, 1915

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3/17/1942 – 3/18/1942

There are now about 60 Japanese fighters, Zeros and Oscars, based at Oosthaven and Merak, and aviation support at both bases. The last Dutch air attack, on 17 March, lost around 25-35 planes and scored no hits. There was no air attack on 18 March so perhaps the ML-KNIL is wearing down after all. More likely, though, Q-Ball is only giving them a day off to rest and repair damaged aircraft. The Dutch have recently begun flying P40s and B-25s, though not in large numbers. Q-Ball tells me that though for some reason he has lost very few Dutch pilots he is running short on airframes. I don’t mind shooting down Warhawks and Mitchells, though it is a possible sign that he has plenty of these planes to spare.

At Merak the Imperial Guards Division is now ashore, along with armor and more engineers and artillery. Two Japanese regiments are swinging around Batavia to threaten Buitenzorg. It now seems likely to me that Q-Ball will not react; as an urban hex Batavia seems like the logical place to make a stand on Java. I will continue to prep my units for Batavia and it’s possible I can overrun the rest of Java against little resistence.

Burma: three artillery units and an engineer unit are on their way to Lashio. The 33rd Division has reached the outskirts of Myitkyina and the base appears to be deserted. Once it is captured the 33rd will rail quickly back to Mandalay. This feature of AE really changes the dynamics of land warfare. Myitkyina is very hard to get to but once you own it you can move units there and back swiftly using the rail line. Mandalay is along the rail line and there is a good road from there to Lashio, so I should be able to bring a lot of force to bear at Lashio fairly quickly.

Once Lashio is taken (confidently presuming it will be taken) then the Burma campaign is all but over. What happens then? I could press on through the jungle towards India and I could also take a shot at trying to take Akyab. I actually don’t have much interest in a campaign in India. I think an overland campaign would be difficult and would cost more than it might gain. Akyab, though, might have some strategic value.

On the other hand, making Q-Ball think I am pressing on towards India might be cause him some worry and force him to divert resources. That’s worth thinking about.

I am also not interested in an amphibious assault against India, though I am keeping Ceylon on the table. Again, making Q-Ball believe I am thinking about such an invasion might help keep him busy and out of mischief in the area for a while.

China: due to the recent thread in the general forum there is no doubt about what my problem is here: I haven’t stripped Manchuria of artillery! Actually I haven’t taken anything out of Manchuria at all yet. My forces in China will have to muddle on as best they can without the help.

Right now the siege of Kukong continues. More artillery and infantry are on their way; currently there are only two artillery units present and I can tell you that at present my artillery barrages there are far from devastating, even with the artillery from several divisions added. Two more artillery units should help, though.

In the north my forces are on the move at last. Three divisions, two brigades, and some armor are on their way to the crossroads of Tsiaotso, a dot hex just across the river from Loyang. If I can finally force the Chinese squatters out of Sinyang then I can threaten Loyang and Chengchow from both sides.

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Here is a photo of a Brewster 339D, captured and displayed by the Japanese. It seems the Dutch fighters got a more powerful engine than the Buffaloes the British used at Singapore and that the pilots who flew the 339D rather liked the plane. There just weren’t all that many of them and the training level of the Dutch pilots was not very high.

[modrow]

Cuttlefish,

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish
Is it possible that the relative amount of artillery on each side is factored into bombardment results? And what effect does artillery fire have on greater numbers of troops? Are the results applied to all units in a hex regardless of number or do greater numbers "spread out" the effects of the bombardment?

not sure. Look (if you are entitled to do so) at Seydlitz's Nomohan redux AAR, page 29, post 852, describing an artillery duel. As I understand those data, the Japanese bombardment attack uses a much smaller number of guns against a defender which has more guns and does quite well. Conversely, the Soviet bombardment attack uses a bigger number of guns compared to the number available to the defenders and does much worse. Note that the receiving Japanese lines seem to be occupied more densely than the receiving Soviet ones.

Thus, I think it's a) exp, b) prep and c) number of already disabled squads/devices in a unit that are the dominant factors.
But of course, I'm open for any other explanation - just what I make of the numbers. Feel free to correct me !

Hartwig

[Smeulders]

not sure. Look (if you are entitled to do so) at Seydlitz's Nomohan redux AAR, page 29, post 852, describing an artillery duel. As I understand those data, the Japanese bombardment attack uses a much smaller number of guns against a defender which has more guns and does quite well. Conversely, the Soviet bombardment attack uses a bigger number of guns compared to the number available to the defenders and does much worse. Note that the receiving Japanese lines seem to be occupied more densely than the receiving Soviet ones.

Thus, I think it's a) exp, b) prep and c) number of already disabled squads/devices in a unit that are the dominant factors.
But of course, I'm open for any other explanation - just what I make of the numbers. Feel free to correct me !

Hartwig

Op mode probably has something to do with it, units in reserve don't take artillery casualties

[modrow]

Smeulders,

ORIGINAL: Smeulders
Op mode probably has something to do with it, units in reserve don't take artillery casualties

Agreed, opponent's op mode has something to do with whether units take losses or not.

But are units in reserve displayed in the troop listing ? I always thought it was just the participants in the respective combat (which is why in the example mentioned above Japanese troop numbers vary that much between the Japanese bombardment attack in which only part of the Japanese units participate and the Allied bombardment attack, where they all - apart from the ones in reserve- get their share). If they don't show up (which I assumed without specific reasons to do so other than the above analogy), that factor does not influence the result. If they do, that can explain differences.

Does anyone know for sure ?

Hartwig

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

I guess no one was paying attention but in my 2x2 game with jrcar and Tony (and Nik on my side) the Allied Artillery forced me to withdraw from Clark, I was suffering very heavy losses and could not continue to stand under the guns. Given that the Allies only have three real artillery unit at Luzon, I have to assume part of the reason for their enhanced firepower was high preparation value, though I could not see that number. It will be interesting to see if they move the artillery out of the Clark hex - I'm betting not [;)]

I've been reading your AAR and it brings to mind some questions. In both games the Allies massed their army at Clark. In my game, though, I faced a less aggressive defence and brought a lot more troops to Luzon early, so my initial move to Clark was in great strength - three full infantry divisions plus a brigade and a couple of regiments, a lot of armor, and six artillery units. When the artillery duel started I had a 5:1 edge in artillery pieces.

Is it possible that the relative amount of artillery on each side is factored into bombardment results? And what effect does artillery fire have on greater numbers of troops? Are the results applied to all units in a hex regardless of number or do greater numbers "spread out" the effects of the bombardment?

Right, probably my "screw-up" was in only bringing the historal quantity of troops to Luzon. I'm now (March 42) reinforcing to double the numbers, that should help.

Certainly, the relative artillery amount has always been a key factor in "bombardments". And yes, probably the single most important "issue" is that EVERYTHING FIRES AT EVERYTHING. Which causes a scaling issue with larger numbers. But it has always been this way and we are reluctant to change this since, in essence, we would be starting over if we did. So tweaking the data (accuracy, firepower, etc.) has been our course instead.

[ComradeP]

Nice AAR thus far Cuttlefish, I'm enjoying reading it.

Perhaps it's all due to the scaling issue, but as you can see in the short debate at the end of page 27 and the start of page 28 of seydlitz's aforementioned AAR, the results do seem to be quite weird when thousands of guns are involved. Counterbattery fire hardly killed anything in the bombardment attacks described in that discussion.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]Only the brave enjoy noble and glorious deaths.[/font]
- Dionysius of Halicarnassus: Antiquities of Rome, c. 20 B.C.

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3/19/1942 – 3/22/1942

The evil Q-Ball sent his Dutch bombers to Singapore on 20 March and it turns out that even Dutch bomber pilots can hit a carrier in dry dock. Gah!

You realize, of course, that this means war.

Seventeen bombers went in and not one of them came home again. I had my CAP ready, thinking he might try that. But sadly I shot down the last bunch after they put three bombs into Ryujo, jumping her system damage from 20 to 88. They were followed by a dozen B-17s, but two of those went down too and they didn’t hit anything. The brave wretches came back the next turn and lost more bombers but did nothing more destructive than do some minor damage to AP Mexico Maru.

He’s been using his Hurricanes to sweep Merak. They’ve lost some planes (maybe five or six, it’s hard to tell) but they’ve downed a couple of Zeros.

And, of course, it turns out that Buitenzorg is well garrisoned. He doesn’t intend to let me roam about Java without a fight, it seems. I have a lot more infantry on the way to Merak right now, though, the 21st Division and another regiment, so a fight there will be.

China: Sinyang is at last free of Chinese troops. I drove them out on 19 March, inflicting around 9500 casualties at a cost of 1500. Three divisions are now going to drive up to Nanvang. If I can take that city then his situation in the area will start to look grim.

Under the Sea: Allied subs scored against three xAKs during this period, one off Sakhalin, one in the South China Sea, and one near Truk (this one was carrying engineers to Green Island). The freighter near Sakhalin sank and the other two are putting into Hong Kong and Truk, respectively, for repair.

On the Japanese side I-174 put a torpedo into AP President Coolidge southeast of Canton Island. There were some casualties reported, so the big transport had troops aboard.

Body and Fender Shop: Kido Butai has almost completed repairs. I really want those carriers back at sea again – Q-Ball bombarded Nukufetau again, among other things – but I am forcing myself to be patient and wait until all damage is repaired. KB may not get another rest like this for a while.

Elsewhere several heavy cruisers are upgrading at Kobe and Hiroshima. Aside from poor Ryujo the only major ship currently undergoing repairs is Haruna, still being patched after eating a torpedo off Khota Bharu and then slugging it out with Force Z. Repairs are now almost complete.

Imperial Troops on the Move: 4th Division is en route from Manila to Rabaul, where it will join the 53rd Division for the assault on Luganville. 38th Division is now loading at Manila; it will go to Mindanao to help bring the siege of Cagayan to an end. The two regiments I have there now just aren’t enough to get the job done. After Cagayan wraps all the troops there will invade Java from the eastern end, if necessary. If not then they will find new mischief to do.

Japanese troop movements in northern China:

[Canoerebel]

Cuttlefish, this is a big question that might take alot of time and thought, so ignore it if you haven't the time or desire to reply:
 
1.  Your thoughts so far about whether AE is more difficult for the Japanese player than was WitP.
2.  What are your long-terms plans?  Are you think about another major leap forward after you wrap up the historic Japanese conquests?  If so, where?

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cuttlefish, this is a big question that might take alot of time and thought, so ignore it if you haven't the time or desire to reply:

1.  Your thoughts so far about whether AE is more difficult for the Japanese player than was WitP.
2.  What are your long-terms plans?  Are you think about another major leap forward after you wrap up the historic Japanese conquests?  If so, where?

1. It's hard to tell at this point in the game. I can only talk about the very early game, and my impression so far is that overall it is if anything a little easier for the Japanese player. Changes in the game that slow down the offensive are offset by the weakness of the Allied forces.

There are a couple of factors at work here that might affect this impression. The first is that it is probably no surprise to anyone who has read "Small Ship" or this AAR that my personal play style is rather, well, grinding and methodical. AE tends to play right into those traits. I've never been the "let's overrun the Panama Canal" kind of guy. I would imagine that AE might well seem to be harder to that sort of player.

Another factor is that there are things that seem harder, but I'm not sure if that's AE or Q-Ball. My AE opponent is a very competent player and I have a feeling that he would make an old-fashioned game of WITP seem harder too. Ask me this question again around June or July '42 and I may have a better answer for you.

2. In the Pacific I am going to attack New Caledonia and the New Hebrides. On the other side of the map I am looking at both northern Australia and Ceylon. I would say that either possibility is dependent on crushing Java by the end of April. If that doesn't happen....well, that might change my answer to question #1.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]Successful generals make plans to fit circumstances, but do not try to create circumstances to fit plans.[/font]
- George S. Patton: War As I Knew It, 1947

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3/23/1942 – 3/28/1942

Plans continue to unfold, though without a lot of results to show as yet. Makassar was captured by overland attack and the 3000-man garrison there surrendered. Padang on the outer coast of Sumatra was taken. And Fergusson Island was seized. So much for recent conquests.

Java and Sumatra: the Dutch defenders repelled the first attack at Palembang. But the KNIL units have not shown a lot of staying power and more Japanese troops are just outside the city so I think that siege will not last too long.

On Java the Imperial Guards unit is moving to Buitenzorg (I like saying that name – Buitenzorg, it just rolls off the tongue) and the 21st Division is moving to Batavia. Splitting my forces thus is probably stupid, but we’ll see how it goes. Invasion forces are prepping for the other end of Java now and one way or another the island will be mine. There have been no recent sorties from the ML-KNIL.

Burma: the Port Blair invasion force is now at sea. Two artillery units and an armored regiment have reached Lashio and the 33rd Division is almost there. Once the 33rd is in place the assault there will begin in earnest.

China: there is more artillery at Kukong now (four units) and Chinese casualties have jumped from 100-200 per day to 500-600 per day. Three more Japanese infantry brigades and a regiment are nearing the city.

Mindanao: the 38th Division is on Mindanao and marching to Cagayan. The long siege there has weakened the defenders and I don’t think I’ll have too much trouble taking the place once the division gets there.

Pacific: the last ships of Kido Butai still under repair are returning to service now, so in a couple of days my carriers will be on their way to Truk. The 4th Division has almost reached Rabaul. Once these pieces are in place things should start to heat up in the Pacific again.

Under the Sea: S-37 sank CL Kashii near Toboali. While Kashii was a slow and obsolete ship those Katori-class light cruisers make excellent amphibious convoy escorts. Kashii will be missed.

They Just Won’t Die Department: there has been an interesting duel going on for the last two weeks on Timor, where a naval guard unit chased the defenders of Koepang into the jungle. Since Dili and Lautem are now mine as well there is nowhere for the refugees to go, but they refuse to surrender and have stood off at least half a dozen attacks. Stout lads, I salute them, but I wish they’d go away now.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

They Just Won’t Die Department: there has been an interesting duel going on for the last two weeks on Timor, where a naval guard unit chased the defenders of Koepang into the jungle. Since Dili and Lautem are now mine as well there is nowhere for the refugees to go, but they refuse to surrender and have stood off at least half a dozen attacks. Stout lads, I salute them, but I wish they’d go away now.

Want to train up some level bombers? [:D]

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

They Just Won’t Die Department: there has been an interesting duel going on for the last two weeks on Timor, where a naval guard unit chased the defenders of Koepang into the jungle. Since Dili and Lautem are now mine as well there is nowhere for the refugees to go, but they refuse to surrender and have stood off at least half a dozen attacks. Stout lads, I salute them, but I wish they’d go away now.

Want to train up some level bombers? [:D]

I like the way you think...

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]I don’t know what the hell this “logistics” is that Marshall is always talking about, but I want some of it.[/font]
- E.J. King: to a staff officer, 1942

I have always thought of April as a kind of tipping point in WITP. The end of April, to me, marks the end of the period when Japan can do pretty much whatever they want and get away with it. Further expansion and campaigns are certainly possible but Japan will have to work for it. It’s the end of the “happy Allied punching bag” time.

In this game there are still things for Japan to do, so I had best be about doing them. Turns and time march on.

The Oily Bird Gets the Worm: Palambang fell after three days of fighting. To my delight the facilities there were taken completely intact. This is a big plus for the future of the Empire. My cunning plan to force the garrison to surrender failed, though. A couple of KNIL units did surrender but the rest of the Dutch, about 7000 of them, fled into the surrounding countryside. Where they think they will go I do not know; the nearest Allied base is now around 400 miles away across Japanese-held terrain. Good luck, guys. Have a nice trip.

A port unit and an air HQ were already on their way there when the base fell. They will enter the base as soon as my minesweepers have declared the harbor safe.

In Which Cuttlefish Does Not Make Them Forget Napoleon: You know, dividing my forces in front of Batavia was a bad idea. Someone should have pointed that out to me. I finally figured it out myself and am concentrating on Batavia but it will cost me an extra week.

Meanwhile, back on Mindanao, Cagayan fell easily to the 38th Division. This division is now loading and heading for Semarang in Java. In Manila I have reconstituted the 48th Division and it is already en route to Semarang (see the map below). So far I don’t have any evidence that Q-Ball has brought reinforcement ground units into Java. If he hasn’t then about 80% of his strength is currently holding the Batavia-Buitenzorg line against my other two divisions. There is a unit reported at Semarang, about 3000 men, which seems about right for a base force of some kind.

Breaking the China: Good news and bad news here. At Kukong the latest Japanese assault got 2 to 1 odds, inflicted over 6000 casualties, and dropped the forts to level 2. The city will fall soon. But up at Nanvang I got careless and stupid. I did not recon the base very well and believed that there were only about 7 units there. I figured that these were mostly the broken remnants of the units I had pushed out of Sinyang and cockily marched in three divisions set on move ops mode.

Imagine my shock when I found 150,000 Chinese there. They promptly threw my divisions out, inflicting 15,000 casualties at a cost of only 4500. This is another expensive AE lesson for Cuttlefish; recon early and often and look at the experience levels of the pilots doing the recon work. Bad recon pilots can give wildly inaccurate estimates of what they see.

The Blair Winch Project: Port Blair was captured by a Japanese regiment. Engineers and aviation support are en route. It’s a nice little conquest that adds a lot of security to Rangoon and the rest of Japanese-held Burma.

The Good, the Bad, and the Worthless: April 1 sees Japan receive a number of new air units. I’m not sure what to do with one of them. The Genzan Ku S-1 Daitai arrived with two Zeros and two really bad pilots. I have over 100 Zeros in the pool and a fair number of fighter pilots in the reserve pool. I could fill out the Daitai, I suppose, but I really want to keep the good pilots available for the carrier groups. Any thoughts on what to do with this unit?

I Liked the Old Hebrides Better: Kido Butai has finally departed Japan and is near Truk. Transports are massing at Rabaul for the invasion of Luganville. I’m going to do some pretty thorough recon there before I hit the beaches (see, he can be taught!). It will probably tip Q-Ball off to what I’m up to but what the heck. If he wants to try conclusions with KB in April ’42 I would welcome the battle; the odds against a Japanese carrier victory only get worse as time goes on.

A Fuel and His Resources Are Soon Parted: I know this has been discussed in the forums but I am going to repeat it here. Take as little fuel out of the Home Islands as possible. It’s tough to avoid early on; there aren’t a lot of other sources of fuel available and the Japanese war machine gets thirsty. But it’s surprising how quickly fuel stores become depleted. This is why taking Palambang intact is such a break for me; my forward bases need fuel and starting now it all needs to come from the DEI. Japanese tankers will also be busy sending fuel back to Honshu to replenish stocks there.

You know that old saying, something about good generals study strategy and great ones study logistics? AE really proves that to be true. I can survive taking a couple of extra weeks to capture Java or getting some divisions beat up in China; I can’t survive mishandling my fuel situation and having both my navy and industry grind to a halt.

[princep01]

Honorable Admiral Cuttlefish: A most informative and amusing summary. We at Combined Fleet Headquarters send both our thanks and our congratulations for your accomplishments to date and the artful way of expressing those accomplishments in this trying time for our nation:).

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

The Good, the Bad, and the Worthless: April 1 sees Japan receive a number of new air units. I’m not sure what to do with one of them. The Genzan Ku S-1 Daitai arrived with two Zeros and two really bad pilots. I have over 100 Zeros in the pool and a fair number of fighter pilots in the reserve pool. I could fill out the Daitai, I suppose, but I really want to keep the good pilots available for the carrier groups. Any thoughts on what to do with this unit?

I'm staring at the rule book and I think you're ok. Here's the order that you'll get pilots:

1. Pilot is in the group's pool assigned by the editor or returning wounded. (Already got both of them.) (I believe this means that it draws pilots from the reserve (the good pilots) that belong to that unit.
2. Pilot from the reserve (the good pilots) and not assigned to a particular unit. (You're ok here if you don't have many/any fighter pilots in there not assigned to a unit.)
3. Pilots from the trained pool. (This is the big pool at the start that gets the guys out of the training system. Practically riff raff.)
4. Blah, blah, blah....

[ny59giants]

As a fan of Tom Clancy novels as well as your prior AAR, I like his two novels with Jack Ryan as president. In both, the army training center in California stresses the need to win the recon battle - know what the other guy is up to and don't allow him to know what you are up to. In AE this will be a key element to your victory and eventual defeat.

Thus, I would be moving multiple Glen equipped subs to recon various bases along with those you intent to visit in force. Keep Brad (Q-ball) guessing where you intent to go by false sending false signals. Psych Warfare 101 is always a good weapon. [:D]

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish
I know this has been discussed in the forums but I am going to repeat it here. Take as little fuel out of the Home Islands as possible.

Now if I could only get my IJN co-player to learn this rule!!!
[:D]

(I bring it in - but he takes it out faster!!!)

[Cap Mandrake]

I Liked the Old Hebrides Better

[:D]

His carriers may have recovered to Anchorage.

[Capt. Harlock]

The Oily Bird Gets the Worm: Palambang fell after three days of fighting. To my delight the facilities there were taken completely intact. This is a big plus for the future of the Empire.

Nicely done! Did you manage to seize much refined fuel as well?

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

The Oily Bird Gets the Worm: Palambang fell after three days of fighting. To my delight the facilities there were taken completely intact. This is a big plus for the future of the Empire.

Nicely done! Did you manage to seize much refined fuel as well?

The fuel level there was about 77,000 when I captured the base. In just a few turns the level is already up to 133,000. The first tankers have arrived and are loading now.