Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

10/15/42 and 10/16/42
 
Subs:  Wow, you'd think that after all my complaining (whining?), by the law of averages things would have to slow down a bit.  Nope.  Over these two days, two more Allied ASW ships fall victim to Japanese subs operating close to major bases.  I-3 gets a YP near Los Angeles and I-31 gets a DD near Noumea.  How many ships in ASW patrols have I lost?  Since September 1:  DDs -5; AMs -4; KV -1 ; YP - 1; SC - 1.  Every one of those ships was in an ASW TF in or adjacent to a big base.  The DDs really hurt, because you really don't have alot to work with - lose a few dozen to carrier clashes over the course of the war and these five are a big deal.  I'll guarantee that the Americans didn't lose five ASW-dedicated DDs in any single year to Japanese subs.  They might not have lost five in the entire war.  This is ridiculous.[:@]  I'm in the process of researching Japanese sub inflicted losses on Allied combat ships, but this is...[:@][:@][:@]
 
China:  Miller gets suicidal and launched a deliberate attack at Changsha.  My troops are rested, I have 4,000 AV behind 8.75 forts (yes, I realize the .75 doesn't count, but it's pertinent as you'll see).  The odds come off at 1:8...and the forts drop to 7.0....and the Japs lose just 12,600 men to 3,300 for the Chinese. That's right, it took me 11 months of game time to build Changsha to 8.75 forts...and I lose 1.75 in a single day to a 1:8 attack.[:@][:@][:@][:@][:@][:@]
 
NoPac:  Just in case the KB shows up in the Indian Ocean over the next few days, I'm moving the Paramushiro invasion fleet from Kodiak toward Dutch Harbor.

[JeffroK]

Is it time to fight fire with fire......

Some Allied subs sitting off Palembang, Miri, Truk, Tokyo Bay etc might raise as much consternation. A couple of TK's lost will hurt more than a few DD's sunk.

Overall, they've done something to the game. WITP was enjoyable, AE is too much of a chore and problems which are being highlighted make it worse.

[Smeulders]

Have you patched up to nr.2 ? Though the patch note don't say anything about decreased effectiveness for subs, they did mention extra vulnerability in port and shallow water hexes. On the other hand, they should now be harder to hit in deep water, so around places like Pago the problem may just have become worse.

[Jim D Burns]

Are your ASW task forces docked? I know a lot of different task forces automatically dock when in a base hex. It could be they are auto-docking to refuel during the turn or something and that makes them sitting ducks for the subs. I think ships docked at ports larger than 4 should be protected from sub attack due to nets and other local ASW assets intrinsic to the base. Subs in those base hexes should also be automatically detected.

Jim

[Canoerebel]

We installed the second patch the day it came out.  If anything, things are worse since then - fewer ASW attacks against subs and the rate of successful sub attacks against ASW is the same or perhaps even higher.
 
My ASW TFs are always at sea and most are set to "react 6."
 
As for Allied subs, of course I have them placed where I think they can do damage.  I've gotten a few hits - and the rate of successes is beginning to increase - but I've had perhaps 150 hits by duds in the game to date.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel,

Have you been replacing your ASW TF skippers with hyperaggressive captains with high naval skills? What are your average ASW skills for these ships crews?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I replace "bad" commanders with "good and aggressive" commanders as often as possible.  I don't know the average, but I just replaced on skipper that was around 50 with one at 70.

[Battleline]

How about:
USS John Sevier
USS Watauga
USS Ramsour's Mill
USS Daniel Morgan
USS Nathanael Greene
USS Jethro Sumner

I, too, am predisposed to the Southern theater.

Good luck,
Battleline

[satx32065]

how bout CV Terminus ????

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Battleline
How about:
USS John Sevier
USS Watauga
USS Ramsour's Mill
USS Daniel Morgan
USS Nathanael Greene
USS Jethro Sumner
I, too, am predisposed to the Southern theater.
Good luck,
Battleline

Daniel Morgan is in my list. How about USS Nolichucky Jack?

[Canoerebel]

10/17/42 to 10/22/42
 
Operation Port Royal:  The Paramushiro/Onnektoan invasion force has sailed west all the way to a point north of Attu Island.  Winter is ten days away and I'm poised to pull the trigger on the invasion in the (increasingly unlikely) event the KB appears somewhere far, far away.  I think the next two-day turn is the last opportunity to pull the trigger - if there's no KB sighting somewhere distant, all these ships and aircraft and men and equipment and supplies has to just turn around and go back home.  A bad case and dissatisfying case of invasion interruptus, but I'll have no choice.  If the KB is parked at, say, Ominato or Tokyo or Osaka, it could pounce on the invasion in two days and I'd lose 150 ships and about four divisions of men.
 
Subwoes:  Several more ASW get clobbered right under the the umbrella of ASW air patrols:  I-33 gets an AVD and a PC near Los Angeles (and a tanker to boot, despite the fact that there are six ASW TFs and at least ten ASW air patrols out of the nearby airfields).  Elsewhere, I-27 finished off a damaged DMS near Townsville, I-11 got an AK near Karachi, and I-30 got an AKL near Port Headland.  On the Allied side of the ledger, Thresher got an AP near Eniwetok and S-34 an AG near Shortlands.
 
Surface Clash:  In one of the most satisfying engagements for the Allies in months of game time, a sharp surface engagement took place at Port Moresby.  The Japanese had a fairly large supply convoy there and were counting on the decisive defeat inflicted on an Allied combat TF by Bettys several months ago to mean that the Allies wouldn't return.  But the Allies set up a CL/DD force at Townsville and sent it north under P-38 LRCAP.  In the resutling melee, the Allies sank five AKs and an APD.  The Japanese inflicted light/moderate damage to a DMS that, as already noted, fell victim to a patroling sub.  Thoroughly arouse by this sting, the Japanese sent a strong CA/CL/DD force to Luganville where it sank five PT boats.  Not to be outdone, the Allies received SigInt that transports were taking a division to Tarawa.  I've sent a CA/CL/DD force north from Pago Pago.  This is rolling the dice, because that's a long way out in Indian Country.
 
China:  Bombardments at Changsha are destroying enough squads per strike that if they continue at this rate for a month it will exceed exceed the reinforcements the Chinese receive.  IE, just by bombarding at a single city the Japanese are able to inflict more casualties than the Allies can replace.  Here are some examples from bombardments: (1) 19th:  11 infantry and 19 non-combat squads destroyed; (2) 20th:  10 infantry and 20 non-combat squads destroyed; (3) 21st:  11 infantry and 19 non-combat; (4) 22nd:  9 infantry and 11 non-combat.  The average number of infantry squads destroyed per day is just over 10, meaning that in a month (30 days) the Chinese would lose 300 - and they receive only 200 replacements.  And this is just one city.  And the Chinese are behind 7 forts (and it was eight, nearly nine, just a week ago).  And there's nothing I can do about it.  I have 4,100 AV strongly fortified led by the best leaders I can select, the infantry were rested (since we're coming off a ceasefire) and most of these units have experience around 50-55 now.  The Japanese are doing this with eight artillery units. 
 
Oz:  Portland Roads airfield just went to level three.  I'm stil awaiting arrival of two base forces to reach Coen to increase aircraft support from 32 to 125 at this level six airfield.  They'll be there within the week and the bombing campaign begins in earnest then.  I'll also be able to use the airfields for LRCAP to reinforce Horn Island and to occupy Merauke in southern New Guinea.

[Canoerebel]

10/23/42 and 10/24/42
 
A quick summary as I hope the following turns will be pretty busy:
 
NoPac:  I've turned the invasion fleet around and it will head back toward Kodiak and then the West Coast.  Invasion Non-Completus as there was no sign that the KB was far away.
 
SoPac:  For some reason, my fast combat TF is taking it's own sweet time about hitting Tarawa.  After four days of steaming at mission speed from Pago Pago, it looks like the TF is set to go in tonight.  Five turns?  I dunno why.  I hope it's not a bad omen.  I hope my TF doesn't arrive at Tarawa and decide to sit around and enjoy the view for a few days.  I hope it strikes quickly, successfully, and vamooses home.
 
SWPac:  All bombers in North Oz are ordered to hit the airfield at Port Moresby tomorrow.  Four P-38 squadrons at Coen and Portland Roads to provide escort.  All planes are set at 10,000 feet to (hopefully) foster cooperation and coordination.
 
India:  All bombers at Diamond Harbor and Calcutta to hit Akyab's airfield and troops tomorrow, with fighters at Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar to provide escort.  All planes are set at 6,000 feet to (hopefully) foster cooperation and coordination.

[Canoerebel]

10/25/42 to 10/28/42
 
NoPac:  The Paramushiro invasion ships have reversed course and are already south of Kodiak Island.  They will reach Seattle in four or five days.  At this point I don't know if I'll consider the invasion next year or whether I'll employ the troops elsewhere.  From reading my WitP AAR against John III, Miller knows I have a fondness for NoPac, so he'll be on his guard.
 
SoPac:  The combat TF that took forever to reach Tarawa ended up taking so long that the juicy transport convoy there retired first.  My TF visited Tarawa and withdrew and, as far as I know, Miller isn't even aware that Allied ships were in the area.
 
SWPac:  The first two-day strike on Port Moresby went very well, the second two-day strike went badly.  The first encountered 28 Zeros on CAP, the second 108.  I have about 75 P-38Es and P-38Fs along as escort and they didn't do very well.  But I like my shiny new bases in northern Oz and I don't think there's any chance now that Miller would hazard a move on north Oz.  A stalemate is in place and slowly the Allies will begin to move.
 
China:  Artillery Death Stars patch two:  Japanese bombardment at Sian with seven artillery - 6,223 casualties and 68 infantry squads destroyed. Ludicrous.
 
ASW:  Another ASW DD claimed by a sub at Perth (and two TKs go down).  The Jap sub isn't even attacked despite five ASW TFs there.   An ASW TF operating out of Noumea reacted and followed a Japanese sub too close to Lunga and got nailed by Nells.  This isn't a Nuclear Sub problem, but it is another casualty of the sub wars.

[Canoerebel]

10/29/42 to 11/3/42
 
Sian, China:  The collapse of China's northern flank is complete as the Chinese have been forced to withdraw from the fortress (so to speak) of Sian.  The Chinese had 4,000 well-rested AV behind four forts at Sian.  These troops had 99% morale and experience averaging 50 to 55%.  Supplies were a problem, naturally:  there was about 5,000 on hand.  The Japanese show up with an army of the same size - 4,000 AV. Given the quagmire nature of the real war in China, you'd expect this clash to devlolve into a protracted siege.  Not with artillery death stars, however.  Miller blasted through the defenses in eight days.  Bombardments on days one and two dropped the Chinese AV from 4,000 to 3,600 (destroying about 100 squads with the Japanese losing nothing); a deliberate attack on the third day destroyed 110 Chinese squads; nothing happened the fourth day; bombardments on days five and six destroyed 110 Chinese squads; a deliberate attack at 2:1 on the seventh day dropped forts to three and destroyed 33 squads (with the Japanese losing a "horrific" 7 squads); and a delliberate attack at 4:1 on the eighth day dropped forts to two.  After eight days of "siege," the Chinese are a mess and the Japanese have negated the fortifications with next to no loss on their end.  The Chinese have to withdraw, of course.  If the Japanese attack again before the Chinese vacate the hex, the army will be in terrible shape.  So, instead of siege we have blitzkrieg.  The Chinese will withraw into the mountains, make a stand there, and then pull back to the small town of Kienko where about 1,300 AV is waiting and building forts.  Right behind Kienko is Chungking.

Subwoes:  I-11 got two AKs near Bombay; I-169 got an AKL near Pago Pago; RO-66 got an ASW AM near Noumea; and RO-68 got an AK near Vanua Lava.  American subs got some hits:  Tunny got a PB near Iwo Jima and Saury an AK near Kaeving.  The Allies lost several ASW TF ships to surface combat near Noumea.  I had four ASW TFs working out of the base and I have a powerful surface combat TF (led by Prince of Wales) docked at Noumea with reaction set to six.  Miller sent a strong CA/CL combat TF to as close as one hex from Noumea.  This force tangled with at least two (maybe three, I can't recall) ASW TFs sinking a DMS, PG, and DD over the course of a couple of turns.  My combat TF at Noumea has an aggressive and highly skilled captain and it failed to react.... (yes, I know that combat TFs only react to enemy TFs in ports within range, but come on...one hex?)  I had some LBA sortie from Efate, but you know how effective Allied LBA is in '42.

Oz:  I'm having a hard time replacing the P-38s lost in the recent battles over Port Moresby.  It looks like production of the E and F models has discontinued in favor of the G model, but I don't have enough of those yet to swap out for the earlier models.  It may be a week before I can cobble together a decent force of fighters here.  As soon as I can, I'm going to send troop transports to either Horn Island (with replacements) or to Merauke (troops to take this unoccupied base on the south coast of New Guinea with great potential). I need the Lightnings to serve as LRCAP.

India:  An RN BB TF has moved from Colombo to Diamond Harbor and will be used to bombard Akyab.  I'll rely on LRCAP from Chittagong to cover these ships. Miller has a bombardment TF operating in the area (Nagato and friends), though I haven't seen them in weeks.

[Canoerebel]

11/4/42 and 11/5/42
 
Sian:  The Japanese stood down over these two days, allowing the Chinese troops to pull out of the hex (this is good; had the Japanese attacked the carnage would have crippled most of my units) but costing me a VP for the vacated hex...  Some of the more powerful units will begin prepping for Kienko; the ragged units will prep for Chungking and retire there to permit disrupted units to recover.  I'll try to defend in the mountainous hexes north of Kienko.  All is not lost, yet, though things are bleak.

Changsha:  Successive bombardments cost the Chinese 32 squads (a pace that would yield 480 over a month).

Air Woes:  Massed waves of Japanese fighters swept the airfield at Chittagong, followed the next day by fighters and bombers.  The Japanese came out ahead, but not by a heck of alot.  I think the Allies ended up losing about 90 aircraft over two days, the Japanese roughly 75.  Fighter losses were roughly 1.5 to 1.  The problem is that it takes alot of time to rebuild Allied air units and replace lost aircraft.

Sub Woes:  The sub vs. ASW carnage continues.  I-21 got an ASW AM docked in Perth.  The next day I-20 got another ASW AM one hex from Perth.  The ASW didn't attack the subs. There are alot of doubters out there about the condition of the sub and ASW model in this game. Believe me, it is broken.

Mini-KB:  A Mini-KB showed up near Perth and sank a few AKs and three AMs.  The Allied fighters - one squadron of American P-40s and one of Aussie Kittihawks - didn't offer much opposition.

Overall Situation:  China is a wreck; subs are wreaking absolute havoc, Japanese combat TFs steam within a hex of a powerful Allied combat TF which sits on its butt....yet the Allies are not in that bad a shape (China excepted).  Miller probably should have used this period when he had such a great carrier advantage to seize some Allied held islands.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Miller probably should have used this period when he had such a great carrier advantage to seize some Allied held islands.

Agreed. His solitary focus on liquidating Chinese resistance at all hazards may prove to be his undoing elsewhere.

Canoerebel: is it completely out of the line of possibility to use those Northern troops that aren't going to Paramushiro now on one of the Marianas islands in early 1943? A coup de main on Tinian or Guam?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Miller probably should have used this period when he had such a great carrier advantage to seize some Allied held islands.

Agreed. His solitary focus on liquidating Chinese resistance at all hazards may prove to be his undoing elsewhere.

Canoerebel: is it completely out of the line of possibility to use those Northern troops that aren't going to Paramushiro now on one of the Marianas islands in early 1943? A coup de main on Tinian or Guam?

I'd do that if I knew where the Japanese carriers were, but I can't hazard a big invasion lacking that knowledge until mid- or late-summer '43 when I'll have more carriers.

In the meantime, though, I'll try to hatch a plan that I can put into effect if the KB shows up far away or a plan that will permit me to move under cover of LBA. Both are certainly possibilities in early '43.

[Canoerebel]

11/6/42 to 11/9/42
 
ASW a go-go:  As in:  Good buy, ASW!  Thanks for dropping by and getting sunk!  I've stood down most of my ASW forces map-wide.  They get chewed up by submarines.  Like the SC near Pago Pago that was sunk by I-162 on the 8th.  I'm still setting up convoys that will have escorts; we'll see if that particular strategy works.  I've lost so many ships recently that I'm afraid to put anything to sea these days.  I have lost an incredible amount of shipping and combat ships.
 
Changsha:  Four more days of bombardment with 18, 8, 8 and 16 infantry squads destroyed (and many more disrupted).  I think Miller will have a hard time reducing this base, however, as it's possible and useful to retreat badly disrupted units a hex to the adjacent city to allow them to recover.  A rotation system like this is pretty effective.
 
Sian:  This city fell to the Japanese on the 7th.  I don't see any signs, yet, that Miller is advancing.  He may be too embarrassed by the situation in China to push any further.
 
Oz:  One P-38 squadron has upgraded to the -G model.  I need some time to get my fighters back on line in order to provide LRCAP for the planned effort to reinforce Horn Island and to occupy Merauke in strength.  I'll need to be cautious about Merauke because Miller isn't going to like it.  He'll send the Mini-KB or even the KB to contest this move.  So I'd better move fast or surreptitiously or both.  That Mini-KB off Perth disappeared into the vastness of the IO.  I am moving Wasp and Lexington from Auckland to Adelaide, where the only RN CV in the game at the moment is currently parked.  I wouldn't mind tangling with the Mini-KB with those three (I think).

[Canoerebel]

I posted my ASW losses from 9/1/42 to 10/16/42 on the previous page.  Here's a list that shows how ASW losses to subs since then.  Bear in mind that all of these were combat ships in ASW TFs in or close to major ports.  Because of the extreme losses in ASW assets, I began standing them down a week or so ago, so the losses should be tapering off:
 
ASW Lost to subs 9/01/42 to 10/16/42:  DD - 5; AM - 4; KV - 1; YP - 1; SC - 1. 
ASW Lost to subs 10/17/42 to 11/9/42:  DD - 1; AM - 3; KV - 0; YP - 0; SC - 1; AVD - 1; PC - 1. 
 
Total ASW lost to subs since 09/01/42:  DD - 6; AM - 7; KV - 1; YP - 1 ;SC - 2; AVD - 1; PC - 1.

[veji1]

So basically before a certain date (43 ?) it might be better to escort everything but not attack subs specifically with asw TFs ???