Against the Wind: Cuttlefish (Japan) vs. Q-Ball (Allies)

[Miller]

Even if the Japs garrison Timor, the allied player can simply bypass it by building up all the Islands north of Darwin in preparation for a move on Ambon and/or the Celebes, as my opponent is doing. Darwin is a must capture for the Japs in my opinion.

[Venividivici10044]

I think the overall discussion of Timor and Darwin needs to be considered in the guise of Supreme Commander Syndrome. In real life many agendas and personalities vied for control of resources and personal glory. In real life if one supreme commander had existed, perhaps reason would have occurred and the DEI would have become the penultimate target to end the war early. I'm sure other ways exist to win (or lose) the game; hopefully enterprising players will uncover other possible strategies. In my humble opinion, if Japan wants to take Darwin, pour in the troops. Australia will eventually become a wonderful prison camp for the IJA.

EDIT - In real life - Japan was spread too thin. Midway certainly knocked time off the war; I think Guadalcanal extended things but helped in the long run from the experiences gained. Japan attempting to annex portions of Australia and NZ will only hasten the end through the loss of resources in other places. In my opinion, I don't care about VPs for determining victory. For me, victory comes in 2 ways - avoiding the destruction of the home islands as Japan, or destroying Japan as a combatant fully as the Allies. END EDIT

[LoBaron]

Good spirit Cuttlefish! [:)]
Crossing fingers for the next year.
 
- did you expand the HI industry?
- do you think you can keep it supplied with only the northern parts of the DEI and other areas?
- can you fall back from the most advanced positions in order to strenghen the areas where you are
most vulnerable except for the DEI´s?
 
 

[princep01]

The next year? Doubtful in my view. However, as you say, it will be interesting to see how long cuttlefish can extend the death knell of the Empire:).

Good luck, cuttlefish. You are a worthy opponent and and an even better writter. As an aside, I do hope you are polishing your book version of the Hibiki's "trip". See a lawyer re copyright.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: Miller

Even if the Japs garrison Timor, the allied player can simply bypass it by building up all the Islands north of Darwin in preparation for a move on Ambon and/or the Celebes, as my opponent is doing. Darwin is a must capture for the Japs in my opinion.

I agree with this. "Garrison Timor" was shorthand for a defense in depth along the lines I posted in the Darwin thread (see below). My question is - if the Japanese player attempts a defense in depth similar to this, can they stop the Allies in the DEI in 42/43? If not, not only must you take Darwin, we may have a game mechanics issue to think about.

Part of my thoughts from the Darwin thread:

My instinct is that a defense in depth with major bases at Kendari, Macassar and Ambon, with outposts at Koepang, Lautem and somewhere in the Flores area (maybe throw in one of the islands east of Lautem as well) with lots of IJAAF and IJNAF firepower could hold. If not, this could be an issue. My only concerns are 1)there are so many bases in the area to defend, and 2) the Japanese player probably needs two of his very scarce Air HQs for this to work. The need for two Air HQs to babysit the DEI may be too limiting on operations elsewhere. Reasonable, historical operations elsewhere, not "invade Vancouver and march down the West Coast" stuff.

PS - CF, I am a copyright lawyer if you have any questions. Small Ship, Big War was amazing.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop


My instinct is that a defense in depth with major bases at Kendari, Macassar and Ambon, with outposts at Koepang, Lautem and somewhere in the Flores area (maybe throw in one of the islands east of Lautem as well) with lots of IJAAF and IJNAF firepower could hold. If not, this could be an issue. My only concerns are 1)there are so many bases in the area to defend, and 2) the Japanese player probably needs two of his very scarce Air HQs for this to work. The need for two Air HQs to babysit the DEI may be too limiting on operations elsewhere.

I read this, and more from above, and it really crystalizes so many obvious things. Some half remembered ...

Solli has laid out his intended defense of South DEI in his AAR using one Air HQ which I think after this is now almost a given. You cannot surrender Ambon in '42 as Japan.

To me, the key purpose of the expansion in mid 42 has to be to get the USN CV's committed. How to do that is NOT easy, but I believe that has to be your major goal. By late '42 allied LBA is coming on too strong and the allies now can match the KB with their CV's + LBA in many places and by '43, this has become most places. So, if you have not gotten any CV's by late '42, I'm thinking your expansion has stopped. Prior to this AAR, I thought you might get into early '43, I no longer think that.

This is a great AAR.

Cuttlefish: kudo's. and you have class. well played.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Solli has laid out his intended defense of South DEI in his AAR using one Air HQ which I think after this is now almost a given. You cannot surrender Ambon in '42 as Japan.

Actually, it's 2, 1 IJA and 1 IJN. Sorry, no more details here due to potential prying eyes.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Solli has laid out his intended defense of South DEI in his AAR using one Air HQ which I think after this is now almost a given. You cannot surrender Ambon in '42 as Japan.

Actually, it's 2, 1 IJA and 1 IJN. Sorry, no more details here due to potential prying eyes.

Mike, SORRY!! [&o] I forgot about that when I posted. I hope I didn't let the cat out of the bag ... [&:]

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

One thought - do you think the large commitment of troops to Noumea, while ultimately successful in that op, left the door open for the Timor invasion?

I've thought about this and I don't think Noumea contributed to what happened at Timor. In fact, I can even argue that my presence that far south gave me the chance to detect the Timor invasion ahead of time. At any rate all of the troops and planes I used in the New Hebrides/New Caledonia attack would have been elsewhere in the Pacific if I had not attacked there, not sent to garrison the DEI.

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

Good spirit Cuttlefish!
Crossing fingers for the next year.

- did you expand the HI industry?
- do you think you can keep it supplied with only the northern parts of the DEI and other areas?
- can you fall back from the most advanced positions in order to strenghen the areas where you are
most vulnerable except for the DEI´s?

- I have not expanded my HI. I have the Japanese economy running fairly well and frankly I'm afraid to tinker with it too much, kind of like a guy who doesn't really understand engines being afraid to try and tune his own car.

- I can keep the Home Islands supplied with resources no problem. The huge threat is being cut off from oil and fuel, especially fuel. I ship huge amounts out of the DEI every month and I still barely have enough fuel to cover operational needs and still maintain a decent reserve in the Home Islands.

- I am already doing this, leaving parts of my outer ring of defenses (now somewhat punctured) to look after themselves while I build up crucial areas in the inner ring, places like the Philippines and the Marianas.

[Cuttlefish]

[font="Arial"]Errors and defeats are more obviously illustrative of principles than successes are…Defeat cries aloud for explanation, whereas success, like charity, covers a multitude of sins.[/font]
- Mahan: Life of Nelson, 1897

---

1/15/1943 – 1/18/1943

To extend the Mahan quote above, it may be that the most valuable thing this AAR can provide are lessons on what not to do. If so, what lessons can I draw from my defeat? What could I have done differently to prevent my recent defeats? Or at least to delay them for some time, if we admit that holding the Allies off forever is not really possible.

I have read the thread on the necessity that Japan occupy Darwin to hinder and delay the Allied build-up there, and I agree with that. In this game, however, Darwin has played a very secondary role in the Allied counter-attack in the DEI. Q-Ball’s invasion, as far as I can tell, was launched from and supported by Port Hedland and Exmouth. The first and best thing I could have done to prevent the defeats at Timor and Ambon, I think, was to seize those bases. Both are very isolated and would be hard for the Allies to recapture, even if only held by token forces. But as with Darwin, the purpose would be to keep the Allies from developing and using them, not to hold on to them forever.

By itself Darwin can be built into a major air base but it is easily cut off by sea – by controlling the Torres Strait and the Australian coast to the south – and thus cannot easily be used as a springboard for the kind of invasion Q-Ball launched.

Second, I did not put enough time and effort into building up troops and defenses on Timor. I just did not anticipate such a heavy attack so early. I think it is safe to say that this is a mistake few Japanese players will be making in future games.

Finally, I made one crucial bad decision. Not to take anything away from my opponent, who planned and executed his attack very well. But as I wrote in this AAR, I detected enough clues to guess what he was planning more than a week before the actual attack. If I had stuck with my plan to move Kido Butai to Timor everything might have gone very differently. Q-Ball’s attack might have even turned into a major Allied defeat (though this would not have been guaranteed). I was suckered by his feint at Midway and so my carriers were far out of position when the attack came.

So I can point to errors both strategic and tactical. Lessons learned, all of them. I like to think that I learn from my mistakes. One thing about this game, though, is that it always provides opportunities to make new and different kinds of mistakes.

Meanwhile things have been quiet in the DEI for the last few turns. My infantry divisions are all now safely back ashore and my carriers are nearing the Home Islands. The only action the last few days, really, has been the Allied capture of Terapo, west of Port Moresby.

I have lost three freighters to Allied submarine attack in the last two turns, though. The improved hit rate of Allied torpedoes is already beginning to make itself felt.

[Grotius]

Those are very insightful comments, Cuttlefish. Much to ponder for those of us who are playing Japan.

Second, I did not put enough time and effort into building up troops and defenses on Timor. I just did not anticipate such a heavy attack so early. I think it is safe to say that this is a mistake few Japanese players will be making in future games.

LoL, I think I'm quite capable of repeating that and other mistakes. One of many question is: how many ground troops would be enough? Where to put them? He who defends everything, and all that. Of course the fleet is mobile, and aircraft are more flexible than ground troops, but still -- you can't defend everything.

[Cathartes]

Finally, I made one crucial bad decision. Not to take anything away from my opponent, who planned and executed his attack very well. But as I wrote in this AAR, I detected enough clues to guess what he was planning more than a week before the actual attack. If I had stuck with my plan to move Kido Butai to Timor everything might have gone very differently. Q-Ball’s attack might have even turned into a major Allied defeat (though this would not have been guaranteed). I was suckered by his feint at Midway and so my carriers were far out of position when the attack came.

Love the Mahan quote.

You had to "guess" that he was planning after your received the clues. There is so much that is real and so much that is FOW and subterfuge at this stage of the war that analyzing them properly still requires painful guesswork built around a good psychological understanding of your opponent. If your opponent is predictable maybe you deserve to be hard on yourself, but if he plays an unpredictable game and is good at smoke and mirrors, then what can you do but keep guessing until you guess right?

[Cribtop]

CF, your insights are very well taken. However, there is one more thing to be learned from this game, namely, how JFBs can marshall their defensive genius to hold open the SLOC to Palembang far longer than we ever thought possible in the grim days of January 1943! [;)]

The key will really be air superiority, and the key to that will be getting second generation interceptors online to pester Allied 4E bombers.

As far as LCUs, at this point I would garrison Kendari, Macassar, Java and Bandjarmisen (sp?). Bring in Air HQs if they aren't already in position. Make the eastern DEI the home to more than half of the IJN's sub fleet. Finally, consider a diversionary strike of some kind outside the DEI. I doubt you'll knock Q-Ball off of the DEI as his main effort, but psyops distractions can mess with a man's game if well executed.

[vettim89]

Watching with great interest. I think the DEI problem may need to be addressed further back. As was pointed out, Darwin is an isolated base. It has to be supplied by sea. Therefore blocking any attempt to do is probably more imperative than actually taking and holding the base. Mere nuisance bombing from Timor should be able to prevent building the base itself. I think a broad shoulders approach to Oz may be the key. By that I mean the NW corner and NE corner must be controled by the Japanese to protect the DEI. The NE corner can be controled from PM which I guess may increase the need to capture taht base even more. Perhaps a move on the SW coast of NG may also serve that purpose. AS for the NW corner, you either have to capture Exmouth or other nearby base or try to interdcit from Java. I think the latter would be difficult to accomplish in face of a determined allied effort. So instead of striking NE Oz, perhaps the best move would be to secure enough of the west coast to at least threaten Perth. With the new unloading rules, the Allies have to have a big port somewhere to launch any offensive.

The Japanese player in AE is faced with the same problems the RL commanders had: a huge area that is impossible to defend in strength everywhere. You are at the mercy of your Allied opponent as he gets to pick where to hit you. That is why I think isolating Darwin is a better option than invading as it only increases you defense line even further for little gain.

[Miller]

Very difficult, if not impossible to keep Darwin suppressed using IJA bombers.....and you would be entering into a war of attrition with only one winner.

Japan would be best off taking Darwin, then build only forts and cling onto it for as long as possible in my humble opinion.

[princep01]

I agree with Miller. Take the accursed place (Darwin) and hold it as long as possible. In fact, why not go for Perth if the Allies fail to really make it an early defensive bastion? Exmouth, Hedland? The Allies are going to be very hard pressed to prevent Japanese occupation if the Japanese want the places (and they should).

There is little reason for the Japanese to ignore these locales and many very good reasons for them to be high priority targets for occupation. Taking them denies the Allies an axis of advance that is most crippling to the Japanese. All other Allied routes of advance do not quickly threaten the Japanese oil/fuel pipeline. The DEI route does, as so aptly demonstrated in this game/AAR. It is quickly FATAL to allow the Allies this axis of advance.

If memory serves me well, didn't the KB (or a big part of it) pay Darwin a visit early in the war. I think Darwin as a town/base of operations was neutered by this strike to the point that the Allies did not even seriously consider going into Timor until very late in the war.

[TheElf]

Cuttlefish, this is an outstanding AAR. One of, if not the best I have ever seen. You and Q-ball are masterful strategists, and your exemplary attitudes, and concepts of fair play contribute more to this community than you could possibly imagine. I applaud your resolve to continue as I think this particular experiment in alternative history has a lot of life left in it, particularly given your personal zeal and intimate knowledge of the subject. Congrats and good fortune...

[kfmiller41]

I have a vested interest in seeing what happens here, as in our game this will be a topic as well I am sure:-)

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: princep01
If memory serves me well, didn't the KB (or a big part of it) pay Darwin a visit early in the war. I think Darwin as a town/base of operations was neutered by this strike to the point that the Allies did not even seriously consider going into Timor until very late in the war.

This summer I was very unfortunate as I went to the movies and my mates picked a film called "Australia" [>:]... where Darwin's bombing in March (?) 1942 plays a very important role.

Perhaps the base was hit so hard and was so remote that the Allied command preferred "easier" avenues of approach such as Western New Guinea.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: princep01

I agree with Miller. Take the accursed place (Darwin) and hold it as long as possible. In fact, why not go for Perth if the Allies fail to really make it an early defensive bastion? Exmouth, Hedland? The Allies are going to be very hard pressed to prevent Japanese occupation if the Japanese want the places (and they should).

There is little reason for the Japanese to ignore these locales and many very good reasons for them to be high priority targets for occupation. Taking them denies the Allies an axis of advance that is most crippling to the Japanese. All other Allied routes of advance do not quickly threaten the Japanese oil/fuel pipeline. The DEI route does, as so aptly demonstrated in this game/AAR. It is quickly FATAL to allow the Allies this axis of advance.

If memory serves me well, didn't the KB (or a big part of it) pay Darwin a visit early in the war. I think Darwin as a town/base of operations was neutered by this strike to the point that the Allies did not even seriously consider going into Timor until very late in the war.

Well, the real problem with going for Perth is that if you don't take it right away and if the Allies fight for it-any heavily damaged Japanese ship is most likely going to sink as there is no place to send them. And Once you take it, it is so remote that the Allied player is bound to counter invade fast to take it back. You just can't afford to keep your carriers there to protect it.