Shattered Vow

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/15/44 and 4/16/44
 
Surface Raiders: A toast to you gents that have urged me to go raiding.  I formed two raiding forces - one to hit Soerabaja from the carrier TFs protecting the Kolaka operation and one to hit Rabaul from Milne Bay.  The latter didn't encounter targets, but here's what happened at Soerabaja:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Soerabaja at 56,104, Range 12,000 Yards 
Japanese Ships
     AO Sunosaki
     TK Eiyo Maru, Shell hits 1
     TK Hakko Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Nihon Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK San Diego Maru, Shell hits 2
     AO Shinkoku Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Amagi Maru #2, Shell hits 1
     TK Kinmon Maru
     TK Butsu Maru, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Tsushima Maru
     SC Ch 37
     SC Ch 38, Shell hits 1
     SC Ch 39, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
Allied Ships
     DD Gansevoort
     DD Peary
     DD Van Galen
     DD Banckert
     DD Piet Hein
     DD Van Ghent
     DD Rotherham

Four of the DDs then hit mines, but I think all will survive, so the raid was definately worthwhile.

Doom on him . . .

Excellent results. Bravo Zulu.

Three SCs for a crown jewel tanker TF? He's hurting for escorts.

[Canoerebel]

We're only doing one turn today because Miller has a life and had plans for this evening, the English rascal.  A few notes as I review the turn file and begin issuing orders:
 
1.  The KB is sighted far to the NE of Mindanoa on an easterly heading.  This is odd and I'm very fortunate to catch this report before she disappeared into the vastness of CenPac, else I would have figured she was somewhere around Manila or possibly heading around Borneo to deal with the threat to Java.
 
2. So what's Miller up to?  If this is really the KB and it's really heading east, there can be only two reasons:  Miller is planning to invade someplace like Midway or Luganville (unlikely and, as far as I'm concerned, acceptable because the absence of the KB from the DEI would help me far more than the loss of bases in CenPac or SoPac would hurt me) or he's going to raid the sea lanes.  This is a definate possiblity and, of course, a concern as there's vast amounts of Allied shipping moving to and from Oz and the West Coast via either the Pago Pago route or the Tahiti route.  I don't have anything that could meet a big carrier force, so I'll have to try to keep my shipping dispersed.
 
3.  If it's a raid, Miller doesn't need the entire KB.  So I need to watch my flanks - especially around Kendari -for a surprise raid.  I should have about four days before the KB could go around Borneo, so I'll see what I can accomplish in the meantime and then I'll try to set up picket ships to guard against disaster.
 
4.  The Allied force at Manado is 2150 AV with 350 fresh AV set to arrive in a day or two.  I think 2500 AV will be sufficient to begin reducing the defenses more expeditiously.
 
5.  5223 Provisional Tank Battalion, the scourge of SEAC, just arrived at Chanthaburi (a Gulf of Siam port east of Bangkok) and found it undefended.  So the Allies will pick up their first port open to the the South China Sea.  Not sure what to make of that, yet, but I'm mulling it over.  Miller still shows no sign of withdrawing from Tavoy or Bangkok.
 
6.  In the Bay of Bengal, the Allies have a CVL and a CVE available to provide some CAP for the Port Blair invasion force that has been steaming in circles far to the west of Port Blair due to the recent Mini-KB raid.  The two Allied carriers carry about 40 Corsairs and Hellcats, enough to persuade me that the invasion can proceed with a high probability of success unless the Mini-KB returns.  Right now recon reports this IJN carrier force at Singapore, which makes sense if Miller is scrambling to assemble a force to deal with the Allied invasion of South Celebes.  The main threat to the invasion should be LBA from Tavoy and Georgetown, but at long distances Allied CAP may be sufficient to handle the threat or reduce it to manageable levels.  So this operation is on. 
 
7.  If the Allies pick off Port Blair, the Japanese sea lanes to Tavoy become very, very tenuous.  Miller won't really be able to supply Tavoy, any longer, making an eventual withdrawal more likely.
 
 

[JohnDillworth]

Four of the DDs then hit mines, but I think all will survive, so the raid was definately worthwhile.

More surface raids! I submit that your TF's are too lare. 2-4 destroyers will do just fine and you should have plenty of them. BTW you radar should be pretty good now. I had a lot of luck sending one of the newer CA's from Pearl into the central pacific. Didn't get sighted and picked up a couple of AK resupply TF's and mauled them. The CA has pretty long range so I could set up a route that took it out of the usual search lanes. It should at lest force miller to think think what you are doing in the central pacific and he ma have to redeploy search aircraft.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7.  If the Allies pick off Port Blair, the Japanese sea lanes to Tavoy become very, very tenuous.  Miller won't really be able to supply Tavoy, any longer, making an eventual withdrawal more likely.

I had a 1.5 year struggle to get Port Blair, but it's a very nice dirt CV to cut off the northern penninsula, especialy with 1944 bombers.

A thought for your early-1945 bag of tricks:

I usually think of oil in terms of the Big Four (Palembang, north Borneo, Balikpapan, Soerbaja.) In my game, after I got Port Blair, I pretty cheaply picked up Great Nicobar Island, thinking just to extend my flank and provide search against those pesky KB IO raids the AI does. GNI is easily expandable, and I put some tac air in there. Much to my surprise, I soon found nests of tankers running into Sabang, there on the tip. Investigating (i.e. peeking) shows that Sabang has no oil centers, but it's the storage and shipping point for Medan, south on the coast, which has oil centers, but no real storage.

Sabang right now has 999,999 Fuel, 860,000 stored Oil, and 1,580,000 Resources. It doesn't have any refineries. Medan has refineries, but only 20k of oil storage. Sabang is on the very outside of Miller's internal lines of communication, and, as I said, easily reachable with tac air, and/or DD raids from Great Nicobar or Port Blair. I bought-out a bunch of WC DB units and shipped them in via Cape Town. The AI is dumb and keeps sending tankers to their death, but even if you didn't sink ships at least you could deny this boon to Miller if you could grab GNI in the coming months.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Night Time Surface Combat, near Soerabaja at 56,104, Range 12,000 Yards 
Japanese Ships
     AO Sunosaki
     TK Eiyo Maru, Shell hits 1
     TK Hakko Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Nihon Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK San Diego Maru, Shell hits 2
     AO Shinkoku Maru, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
     TK Amagi Maru #2, Shell hits 1
     TK Kinmon Maru
     TK Butsu Maru, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     TK Tsushima Maru
     SC Ch 37
     SC Ch 38, Shell hits 1
     SC Ch 39, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
Allied Ships
     DD Gansevoort
     DD Peary
     DD Van Galen
     DD Banckert
     DD Piet Hein
     DD Van Ghent
     DD Rotherham

Owie owie owie!

[Canoerebel]

4/17/44 to 4/20/44

At a time when the Allies really want "quiet turns" (IE, no KB), these turns were wquiet where it mattered to me most (though the Japanese did score a few hits, drat them).

Southern Celebes:  Two HQ units landed at Kolako and a bunch of transports are arriving there and at Watampone carrying the bulk of the reinforcements.  Now comes the sweating time, for the KB is off the radar.  My best information is that some carrier disappeared into CenPac from the Philippines a few days ago, but that doesn't mean Miller didn't get clever and send the bulk of his carriers around Borneo to hit me.  Also, a sub put one TT in CV Hornet.  So things get dicey now.  I need carrier cover for a few more days, but if the KB has gone around Borneo I don't want to get my clock cleaned.   

Northern Celebes:  Back to back Allied deliberate attacks at Manado dropped forts from four to two, so Manado will probably fall within a week.  This not only gives the Allies a big airbase at a strategic position, it also means Allied 4EB need no longer suppress the level seven airfield.  That frees up alot of B-24 to use against other bases.

Mindanao:  If Miller commits the KB far away from Mindanao - meaning at Java or on a raid in CenPac or SoPac - I want to have the option of proceeding with a "lightning quick" invasion of Dadjangas.  That means I need transports positioned at Boela, where most of the Dadjangas-prepped troops are waiting.  Empty transports have begun to arrive, and many more will be available beginning in two or three days as the bulk of the Kendari army lands at Kolako.  So the Allies should have the capability of mounting an invasion of Mindanao on short notice beginning in about four days.

Thailand:  5223 Tanks took vacant Chanthaburi, a port on the Gulf of Siam.  That's good, but I'm not sure yet what to do with it.

Port Blair:  Frances torpedo aircraft sank BB Queen Elizabeth and several transports after the RN carrier force providing CAP got separated from the main invasion force.  Don't know what happened yet, but perhaps I didn't have the "follow TF" orders correctly configured.

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

Subs:  Japanese submarines also picked off several of the Allied DD damaged by mines in the Soerabaja raid.

[JeffroK]

Is this a sign Miller has concentrated against the DEI and is thin on the ground elsewhere?

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

After adding up your CV numbers, should you be chasing Miller to get rid of the KB, its his main hope at the moment.

At least get him running it around to chew up the fuel he has in his SOPAC/CENPAC bases.

[JohnDillworth]

At a time when the Allies really want "quiet turns" (IE, no KB), these turns were wquiet where it mattered to me most (though the Japanese did score a few hits, drat them).

Southern Celebes: Two HQ units landed at Kolako and a bunch of transports are arriving there and at Watampone carrying the bulk of the reinforcements. Now comes the sweating time, for the KB is off the radar. My best information is that some carrier disappeared into CenPac from the Philippines a few days ago, but that doesn't mean Miller didn't get clever and send the bulk of his carriers around Borneo to hit me. Also, a sub put one TT in CV Hornet. So things get dicey now. I need carrier cover for a few more days, but if the KB has gone around Borneo I don't want to get my clock cleaned.

Northern Celebes: Back to back Allied deliberate attacks at Manado dropped forts from four to two, so Manado will probably fall within a week. This not only gives the Allies a big airbase at a strategic position, it also means Allied 4EB need no longer suppress the level seven airfield. That frees up alot of B-24 to use against other bases.

Mindanao: If Miller commits the KB far away from Mindanao - meaning at Java or on a raid in CenPac or SoPac - I want to have the option of proceeding with a "lightning quick" invasion of Dadjangas. That means I need transports positioned at Boela, where most of the Dadjangas-prepped troops are waiting. Empty transports have begun to arrive, and many more will be available beginning in two or three days as the bulk of the Kendari army lands at Kolako. So the Allies should have the capability of mounting an invasion of Mindanao on short notice beginning in about four days.

Thailand: 5223 Tanks took vacant Chanthaburi, a port on the Gulf of Siam. That's good, but I'm not sure yet what to do with it.

Port Blair: Frances torpedo aircraft sank BB Queen Elizabeth and several transports after the RN carrier force providing CAP got separated from the main invasion force. Don't know what happened yet, but perhaps I didn't have the "follow TF" orders correctly configured.

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

Subs: Japanese submarines also picked off several of the Allied DD damaged by mines in the Soerabaja raid.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/24/2010 9:42:21 PM >

[JohnDillworth]

4/17/44 to 4/20/44

At a time when the Allies really want "quiet turns" (IE, no KB), these turns were wquiet where it mattered to me most (though the Japanese did score a few hits, drat them).

Southern Celebes: Two HQ units landed at Kolako and a bunch of transports are arriving there and at Watampone carrying the bulk of the reinforcements. Now comes the sweating time, for the KB is off the radar. My best information is that some carrier disappeared into CenPac from the Philippines a few days ago, but that doesn't mean Miller didn't get clever and send the bulk of his carriers around Borneo to hit me. Also, a sub put one TT in CV Hornet. So things get dicey now. I need carrier cover for a few more days, but if the KB has gone around Borneo I don't want to get my clock cleaned.

Northern Celebes: Back to back Allied deliberate attacks at Manado dropped forts from four to two, so Manado will probably fall within a week. This not only gives the Allies a big airbase at a strategic position, it also means Allied 4EB need no longer suppress the level seven airfield. That frees up alot of B-24 to use against other bases.

Mindanao: If Miller commits the KB far away from Mindanao - meaning at Java or on a raid in CenPac or SoPac - I want to have the option of proceeding with a "lightning quick" invasion of Dadjangas. That means I need transports positioned at Boela, where most of the Dadjangas-prepped troops are waiting. Empty transports have begun to arrive, and many more will be available beginning in two or three days as the bulk of the Kendari army lands at Kolako. So the Allies should have the capability of mounting an invasion of Mindanao on short notice beginning in about four days.

Thailand: 5223 Tanks took vacant Chanthaburi, a port on the Gulf of Siam. That's good, but I'm not sure yet what to do with it.

Port Blair: Frances torpedo aircraft sank BB Queen Elizabeth and several transports after the RN carrier force providing CAP got separated from the main invasion force. Don't know what happened yet, but perhaps I didn't have the "follow TF" orders correctly configured.

CenPac: PBY Liberator bombers scored some hits on Japanese shipping at Kwajalein, including an AS, AR, and AMC. Miller won't use that port again unless he's willing to commit CAP.

Subs: Japanese submarines also picked off several of the Allied DD damaged by mines in the Soerabaja raid.

Thought Miller said something to the effect that " My subs are finished, but they served me well" Putting a fish into a carrier seems like "not quite finished" to me. Subs are still not quite right

[Canoerebel]

John, indeed Japanese subs remain a threat and will be for the entire war.&nbsp; Fortunately, in this case Hornet took only 8 FLT damage, so that was a relief.
&nbsp;
Jeff, I hear you, but going hunting for the KB in 1944 isn't an option in my game.&nbsp; I have carrier parity, I believe, at this point, but were I to take on the KB in a fair fight, here's what would happen:&nbsp; Allied CAP would savage the massive incoming raid, but scores of strike aircraft would penetrate and the Allies would lose four fleet carriers, four CVL, three CVE, and an assortment of cruisers.&nbsp; The massive Allied raid would penetrate the CAP and Allies strike aircraft would get one bomb hit on a fleet carrier, one torpedo hit on a CVL, and two bomb hits on a CVE.
&nbsp;
If you threw LBA into the mix, the results would be 155% worse, as Japaanese long-range torpedo aircraft are deadly while Allied LBA are useless against shipping (except in port).
&nbsp;
Now, part of this equation is due to the fact that the Allies have lost more carriers to date than have the Japanese.&nbsp; Part of it may also be a miserable failure by the Allied high command to know how the heck to train naval strike aircraft to score hits more than 1% of the time.&nbsp; But part of it is that the air war in AE is really, really strange.
&nbsp;

[Canoerebel]

4/21/44 and 4/22/44
&nbsp;
KB:&nbsp; Shows up off the NE coast of Mindanao once again, which is a blessing for which I give constant thanks.&nbsp; Stay up there in plain sight while the Allies operate just off the tip of Java and all will be well.
&nbsp;
Manado:&nbsp; This base finally falls on April 21.&nbsp; The Allies now have a massive airbase overlooking the northern entrance to the Makassar Straits and to utilize in any upcoming moves on Mindanao or northeastern Borneo.&nbsp; The troops here will soon begin prepping for new targets - probably Tarakan and vicinity.
&nbsp;
Southern Celebes:&nbsp; Landings go well with nothing untoward happening.&nbsp; Plenty of Japanese strike aircraft sortie and score some hits against a few DD (the same ones that hit Soerabaja a week ago), but the Japanese lose alot of aircraft.&nbsp; The Allied carriers juked towards Soerabaja, but didn't find any victims.&nbsp; In the meantime, Franklin, Constellation, and Yorktown arrived and steamed to a point near Timor.&nbsp; They'll hook up with the main carrier force tomorrow.
&nbsp;
Bay of Bengal:&nbsp; I withdrew the Port Blair invasion fleet after losing BB Queen Elizabeth.&nbsp; A bunch of Judy and Jills targeted some AKL at Rangoon, but the Japanese lost more aircraft than it was worth for the hits scored on this little merchant ships.
&nbsp;
China:&nbsp; A Chinese unit marched cross country and cut the road to Nanning, isolating the Japanese garrison.&nbsp; Not sure it will help me take the city, but we'll see.
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

[racndoc]

I think that u underrate the B-25s. Ive found that 4E bomber groups reach 60-70% damaged after 6-8 days of continuous ops vs B-25s conducting continuous ops for weeks at a time with 70% plus operational.

In addition, the B-25D1 in particular has a gun rating of 30 and is perfect for 100' strafing missions.

Referring to a previous post, Jap naval AA is vastly overrated come 1943. Im finding that my SBDs are suffering 25% to 30% losses to IJN ship AA in 1943.
A major attack on an IJN BB group with approximately 130 SBD-3s resulted in 38 SBDs lost to naval AA and an additional 10 SBDs lost to "ops".

In RL Midway on June 4th 1942.....the penultimate day at Midway where all 4 IJN CVs were mortally wounded......exactly 1 USN SBD was lost to naval AA.

According to Shattered Sword.....IJN gun directors were antiquated and were simply incapable of tracking aerial targets in 3D...ie they could obtain firing solutions on 2D torpedo bombers but not 3D divebombers.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the comments, AdmSpruance.&nbsp; It goes to show that there is variation among the games.&nbsp; I'm not having any trouble keeping Allied 4EB air-worthy - in part because they are flying from big bases (levels six to nine), which I assume reduces damage, and in part because I have them concentrated together in the DEI so that I can easily rotate squadrons between duty and rest and still put up 200 every turn.
&nbsp;
But my 2EB don't do a thing, including the best B-25 models at 100' altitude.&nbsp; This, in turn, may be due to lack of opportunity.&nbsp; Miller isn't in the habit of sending his ships within range of LBA and most of my forward bases are occupied by fighters and 4EB.
&nbsp;
Game update:
&nbsp;
1.&nbsp; The KB has juked west to a point near Jolo.&nbsp; Miller could chance a dash down the Makassar Strait to try to hit my carriers,&nbsp;he might send his carriers around Borneo, or he might keep them where they are to move either way.
&nbsp;
2.&nbsp; In either event, I want to clear out my ships for a few turns to see what happens.&nbsp; Carriers, combat ships and transports will rendezvous near Lautem.
&nbsp;
3.&nbsp; The Allies landed two divisions and a regiment - plus some supporting units - at Kolako.&nbsp; These will advance on Kendari.&nbsp; Another division, tank regiment, and other troops had arrived at Kolako, but I need to temporarily pull them back safety.
&nbsp;
4.&nbsp; If the KB goes around Borneo to protect the Java Sea, the Mindanao-prepped troops are ready to board transports at Boela.&nbsp; As between Mindanao and the Soerabaja/Bandjermasin/Makassar triangle, the Allies have the "inside line" unless Miller chances a transit of the Makassar Straits.

[JeffroK]

On from my post&nbsp;[:'(]

Are your CV achieving anything in the DEI??

Can you send them either East or West and find some softer targets to hit on, pick up some experience by smashing some minor bases.

If they are too fragile to take on KB, go somewhere they aint.

[Canoerebel]

The arrival of the three new carriers gives the Allies carrier parity.  The Allies are using the carriers to good effect in the DEI - to support (and therefore allow) invasions despite the threat of Japanese air power.  Since, in AE, Japanese air power is greater than the real war and WitP by a factor of about 1000, this is crucial.  I could not advance in the DEI without my carriers and, at the moment, advancing in the DEI is the most profitable use I can make of time and assets.

[Canoerebel]

4/23/44 and 4/24/44
 
KB:  Spoiling for a fight, Miller sent the KB into the Makassar Straits to a point between Makassar and Balikpan.  Why do I think he was spoiling?  This was his email comment before he ran the turn:  "I think there might be plenty of action this turn, so I will take my time with it and get it to you tomorrow..."

Allied Reaction:  I had anticipated this move, as noted in a post above.  Since I wasn't ready for a final showdown, I ordered my ships east.  Except for one transport TF that disoboyed orders or that didn't receive orders (that ALWAYS happens), all my ships ended up safely around Timor. So Miller got a bad dose of attackus non completus. 

What's Next:  I *think* the KB will remain in that vicinity to permit Miller to get ships into and out of Balikpan and Soerabaja to handle cargo and fuel.  It also means I can't land additional forces at Kolako until the KB clears the area.  I have two choices: 

(1)  Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead:  CVs Franklin, Constellation, and Yorktown just rendezvoued with the main force consisting of Hornet, Intrepid, Bunker Hill, and Victorious.  There are also six or eight CVL and at least 16 CVE.  That's a mighty force that would ordinarily take on and whip the KB in 1944...but this is AE in which Japanese strike aircraft are uber and Allied strike aircraft are pathetic.  So I need to weigh this option carefully, taking into consideration Japanese and Allied LBA capabilities given the abundance of bases in the vicinity and the ability of Allied 4EB to close bases (Kendari and Makassar, for instance, are shut down).  I would probably position the Allied carriers in the vicinity of Namlea with home port set as Boela or Ternate.  This would keep Celebes between the two forces - assuming the KB remains where its at - and give damaged ships a nearby refuge.

(2)  Proceed - or feint - with the Mindanao invasion:  Transports at Boela (Ceram) would load and would head north in the company of the carriers.  The KB would likely head north, too, allowing the Allies to land the remaining troops at Kendari and to mount the invasions of Mataram, Raba, and Waingapou (the troops and ships are waiting at Koepang for the all-clear).

Mindanao Note:  Since the fall of Manado to the Allies, I feel comfortable with invading Dadjangas, Mindanao as long as the KB isn't present.  The Allies have enough big airbases (Manado, Talaud Island and Morotai) and medium sized bases (islands between Manado and Talaud) to provide a heck of alot of LRCAP.  This invasion is likely as soon as the KB isn't an immediate threat, but it can also serve as a useful target of feints.  I want Dadjangas and Cotabato for the airfields that would serve as a buffer from the big Japanese bases on Mindanao.  I don't expect to take the entire island.

[John 3rd]

Dan--I cannot remember but you are playing Scen 2--right? Do you think that is part of the issue here with Japanese aircraft?

I based my Mod off of Scen One and even drew back the amount of graduating Japanese pilots from 1943 onwards to better reflect the war. Wonder if that much larger pool is an issue? Course the training program by the player changes things a bunch as well.

You've put some of the Japanese CV/CVL out-of-commission over the last few months haven't you? Seem to remember your SS hitting several Japanese Cvs recently. Might that really help with a toe-to-toe brawl?

[JohnDillworth]

Miller is clearly going to challenge what ever you do in the Makassar Straits so o might as well have the showdown there. MAy as well wait for you remaining carriers to join you. Any temptation of split you carries and trap him in the straits? Seems like a lot of coordination and mighty risky but the war would be decided this month no?

[Canoerebel]

John D.:  Yes, a victory by the Allies in a major carrier battle would decide the war.  Miller put it this way in an email yesterday:  "I think we both know the Jap player gets an a-historical hand to keep the game interesting later in the war, however the existence of the KB is the only thing that is stopping you from running amok."  The only trouble is that there's a good chance the Japanese would win a major carrier battle - I'd put the odds at 70% - which would really hurt the Allies, because carrier parity is the only reason the Allies are able to advance right now.  But all Allied carriers have arrived in theater, so I can engage if I decide I like the odds.

One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present.  This is a huge problem because Allied LBA typically has much shorter legs than does Japanese LBA.  That means when reaction takes place it is much easier for the Japanese to keep LRCAP while the Allied carriers may blithely sail out of range. (This has happened to me repeatedly and creates intense feelings of frustration and anger). My experience in AE is that reaction kills the Allies in a fight in which both sides are using LBA, as will be the case in the DEI.

John 3:  Yes, Allied subs have picked off a CV since our last big carrier engagement, and damaged a CVL and a CVE (both of which may be available again).  Also, two IJN CVE and a CVL were heavily damaged in action around the Celebes and are definately out of action right now.  So the KB isn't quite what it was months ago.

We are indeed playing Scenario Two.  The air war is whacked out, but there are so many variables that enter the equation that I'm not sure how to allocate the whackiness between AE, Scenario Two, random luck, lack of pilot training knowledge on my part, lack of skill on my part in knowing how to use carriers in battle, skill on the part of my opponent in using carriers in battle, or little gremlins who have put a curse on me because once while backpacking the Appalachian Trail I unknowingly relieved myself on their sacred fern garden.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John D.:  Yes, a victory by the Allies in a major carrier battle would decide the war.  Miller put it this way in an email yesterday:  "I think we both know the Jap player gets an a-historical hand to keep the game interesting later in the war, however the existence of the KB is the only thing that is stopping you from running amok."  The only trouble is that there's a good chance the Japanese would win a major carrier battle - I'd put the odds at 70% - which would really hurt the Allies, because carrier parity is the only reason the Allies are able to advance right now.  But all Allied carriers have arrived in theater, so I can engage if I decide I like the odds.

One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present.  This is a huge problem because Allied LBA typically has much shorter legs than does Japanese LBA.  That means when reaction takes place it is much easier for the Japanese to keep LRCAP while the Allied carriers may blithely sail out of range. (This has happened to me repeatedly and creates intense feelings of frustration and anger). My experience in AE is that reaction kills the Allies in a fight in which both sides are using LBA, as will be the case in the DEI.

John 3:  Yes, Allied subs have picked off a CV since our last big carrier engagement, and damaged a CVL and a CVE (both of which may be available again).  Also, two IJN CVE and a CVL were heavily damaged in action around the Celebes and are definately out of action right now.  So the KB isn't quite what it was months ago.

We are indeed playing Scenario Two.  The air war is whacked out, but there are so many variables that enter the equation that I'm not sure how to allocate the whackiness between AE, Scenario Two, random luck, lack of pilot training knowledge on my part, lack of skill on my part in knowing how to use carriers in battle, skill on the part of my opponent in using carriers in battle, or little gremlins who have put a curse on me because once while backpacking the Appalachian Trail I unknowingly relieved myself on their sacred fern garden.

Canoerebel,

Unless you've found a way to have 600-700 LBA Kamikazes on the Allied side in your next carrier battle, I'd put the likelihood of you coming up with the dirty end of the stick in your next CV/CV clash at 100%-if it's in range of one of those Kamikaze nests. More carriers for you will help (more CAP), but they could just be more expensive targets.

Your strategic picture is getting increasingly complicated re: naval expansion as the Kamikaze threat grows. That's why I'm a big fan of going where the Kamikazes aren't-open sea. That could be the IO (reinforcing Burma / Thailand by looping around-WAY around Java and Sumatra). LBA LRCAP is nice when you can get it, but you very clearly articulate some of the headaches of relying on this sort of support. With Kamikazes, he doesn't really have to worry so much about LRCAP, since Kamikazes are exclusively an offensive weapon.

To use a (bad) boxing analogy: You've rained body blows on your opponent. He's responded to this by dropping his guard to defend himself against these body blows. When your opponent drops his guard to protect his tenderized midsection-left cross to the temple.

Miller has shown his hand-I mostly believe him when he says that his CV force is really keeping him in the game. He's not likely to afford you opportunity to go one on one with his CVs versus yours WITHOUT his Kamikaze crutch.

To summarize:

1. CV versus CV exchange in the open ocean-accept if opportunity presents parity.
2. CV versus CV fight in proximity to his LBA (read: almost anywhere in the DEI)-avoid.