Ocean of (Allied) Blood.

[Itdepends]

Having read the other AAR I have some idea of your pain........but do share.
 
(P.S.- I'm FatR's other new PBEM opponent- and I just slaughtered 4-5K of his troops on the boats as an invansion force in the DEI with Force Z in late Dec '41, unfortunately he returned the favour with mini KB on a evacuation convoy from Singapore)
 
Daniel

[janh]

Huuh, yeah, bad luck with the naval battle -- but look at how sturdy the British CV are!  If you had been a little luckier, Adamans could have turned into FatR's Midway.  It would seem, though, that you have a pretty holy recon screen in the Indian ocean?

Even though the outcome was bad, I think the island are still tenable for you, and you have already caused your opponent severe headaches by slaughtering several squadrons of fighters and bombers there.  If he decides to counterinvade, you make make it very very expensive, or maybe impossible  -- and rather soon you will have received sufficient new CVs, and tons of CVL and CVE.  It would still seem that the Adamans will be the turning point and will attrit his LCU and air forces slowly, but steadily... 

The thing you will need to plan for are some sneaky maneuvers to get supply convoys in...  I still think your Adamans campaign was a brilliant idea, and caught FatR offguard while KB was busy "slurping cocktails" on Hilo.   Maybe it can be considered early for such aggressive moves, but timing was quite right.  Imagine you would have caught miniKB there earlier with the sturdy british units!?

[crsutton]

Time to suck it up. You will be OK. It is just going to be a longer war than you had anticipated...Good hunting.

[Smeulders]

The invasion was always a high-risk strategy. If you had won this carrier battle you'd have been in a magnificent position, now not so much but as Allies you can come back.

[yubari]

Heavens, I have never been beaten that badly before, it took me about 4 days before I could even open the turn file, but the next turn has now been sent.

In what will surely be remembered as one of the biggest mistakes ever made in this game I have to reveal the reason for my crushing defeat here. Following the torpedoing earlier of the Enterprise and her subsequent inability to launch planes, Hornet was detached to provide an aerial escort against any possible Bettys operating from Nell. In the end it was unnecessary as the Enterprise group wasnt even spotted the following day. Also, the carrier groups were ordered to 20 percent naval search and 50 percent ASW search. Not only did I go into the battle with two of the US carriers missing, two thirds of the US bombers didnt even have orders to attack!

Andamans.
US fleet crushed!
Oh dear, everything I have been trying to avoid happened in the last turn as a huge Japanese carrier fleet appears out of nowhere, 6 hexes south of Koggala. It was too painful for me to watch the replay, I imagine that FatR has a detailed account on his AAR so if you want a proper explanation then that is the place to go. Carriers sunk at the end of the day are the Lexington, Saratoga and Yorktown. The Formidable took 4 torpedoes and will almost certainly sink. The Indomitable and Illustrious both took lots of bombs but one torpedo, if luck and the weather stays with me then they stand a small chance of escape.
In many ways I was very lucky that my morning strike targeted the light carriers rather than the main KB, three of the small carriers, the Shoho, Zuiho and Nisshin were all reported with heavy fires and heavy damage and so should hopefully sink, Ryujo and Hiyo also both took a torpedo. The afternoon strike, considerably smaller, failed to get a single hit against the main KB.


Why did this happen?
There were two main reasons for my defeat. The first was the torpedoing of the Enterprise. With its planes grounded due to damage, the Hornet was detached to provide escort and this immediately took two carriers out of the crucial battle. Not only this, I also set all of the carrier groups to ASW duty, an action which took a huge number of Dauntlesses out of action.
The second reason is that, with the appearance of the mini KB in the area at the end of May but no sighting of the main KB between then and now, I simply assumed that FatR was doing upgrades to the carriers in the home islands. The apparent sighting of only 2 light carriers south of Java a couple of weeks ago merely added more evidence. A staggering complacency, not dissimilar to what the real Reluctant Admiral showed at Midway, I simply didn't even consider that the whole KB could be there, them having spent as far as I can tell literally every single day at sea so far.

I would like to be able to point bad luck with dice rolls, carriers reacting, bad weather or the improved Japanese fleet and Zero in this mod but the simple fact is that I made a terrible mistake, and paid badly for it. Congratulations also to FatR for fooling me.

What now?
This puts a whole different complexion on the war. I had been planning on a landing at the end of Sumatra, indeed my troops were just a day or two from landing there at the end of May only for me to lose my nerve.
FatR will surely strike hard again next turn so I will need to think of a way to protect what remains of the allied fleet. In the long term, surely FatR will now try to retake the Andamans, I shall need to try to sneak in more troops to the southern islands. In particular I will need to avoid any carrier combat until September 1943, when a whole lot of new US carriers will arrive and I will have a lot of Hellcats available.

More bad news.
Two Japanese AMCs appear in the Bay of Alaska and fight against a transport fleet just one day away from meeting its escorting destroyers. The one escort, the APD Little fights very well and sets one of the AMCs on fire; reported as a heavy fire it will hopefully mean that it sinks.

Even more bad news.
A submarine is sunk by Japanese subchasers near Singapore and a second submarine is sunk by a bomb near Hawaii.

Some relatively good news.
A cruiser task force bombards Port Moresby and then B-17s follow up, around 90 hits are reported and a few planes are destroyed on the ground. I need to think now if it is worth trying to take Horn Island.

[yubari]

Planes lost.

[yubari]

Pilots lost. Note that most of the US planes were able to return to land on Ceylon which resulted in these relatively light losses.

[yubari]

And finally the points.

Tomorrows turn.
I am left in an incredibly difficult position. I expect to see lots of battleship bombarding Trincomalee tonight, hopefully the 6 Royal Navy battleships will be able to provide some sort of defence. For the next turn, I have ordered all remaining ships to congregate two hexes south east of Trincomalee (as far as the damaged British carriers could reach.)
On Ceylon are around 450 land based fighters (including escapees from the doomed American carriers), about 100 dive bombers, 50 torpedo bombers and 100 medium bombers (these have been set roughly half on low level attack and half on level bombing). With the Hornet being the only carrier left capable of launching planes (Enterprise is still suffering from damage greater than 50 percent) I am not particularly hopeful of achieving any great damage here but hopefully the huge land based CAP should provide some good defence for my ships.

[vicberg]

If I were in your position right now, I'd make a major push into Thailand from Burma...throw everything you have at it...It's the best chance you have for saving your divs in the Andamans. The burma attack will negate jap carrier power and allow you to regain the initative. I would abandon naval support for the Andamans and supply them with air trans. If you can capture the coast road down to victoria point, it will deny him a number of bases and provide forward air cover for a possible transfer of troops from the Andamans to Malaysia. I use the word "possible" loosely because his carriers will dominate the region for the next 6 months. However, with sufficient air in the Andamans, it will probably keep his carriers at bay.

[witpqs]

Hmmm... any divisions defending against a Burma thrust would definitely not be attacking the Andamans.

[vicberg]

Don't get gettin any ideas from this George...keep your eyes on the watch and repeat after me...don't invade Thailand in our game....don't invade Thailand in our game...at the count of 3....

[Itdepends]

ORIGINAL: yubari
Why did this happen?
There were two main reasons for my defeat. The first was the torpedoing of the Enterprise. With its planes grounded due to damage, the Hornet was detached to provide escort and this immediately took two carriers out of the crucial battle. Not only this, I also set all of the carrier groups to ASW duty, an action which took a huge number of Dauntlesses out of action.
The second reason is that, with the appearance of the mini KB in the area at the end of May but no sighting of the main KB between then and now, I simply assumed that FatR was doing upgrades to the carriers in the home islands. The apparent sighting of only 2 light carriers south of Java a couple of weeks ago merely added more evidence. A staggering complacency, not dissimilar to what the real Reluctant Admiral showed at Midway, I simply didn't even consider that the whole KB could be there, them having spent as far as I can tell literally every single day at sea so far.
A cruiser task force bombards Port Moresby and then B-17s follow up, around 90 hits are reported and a few planes are destroyed on the ground. I need to think now if it is worth

I'd suggest the root cause of the defeat (as I'm finding) is insufficient recon- when the enemy is known to be stronger than you- unless you
A) know where the bugger is
B) Have enough recon in place to know where he isn't

You're rolling the dice each time.

Getting enough recon is a whole different kettle of fish.

[Canoerebel]

Yubari, misery not only loves company, it needs it.

Bro, I've been just where you are and worse. Most other Allied players have too. It really, really stinks. It's demoralizing. It's horrifying.

Probably one in four Allied players toss in the towel at this point. Those who soldier on make a surprising discovery: the Allies can come back and defeat Japan. It's challenging and it will make you a better player...and man is it sweet!

So stick in there and do it!

[CapAndGown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Probably one in four Allied players toss in the towel at this point. Those who soldier on make a surprising discovery: the Allies can come back and defeat Japan. It's challenging and it will make you a better player...and man is it sweet!

Not this JFB! [:'(]

[yubari]

When your luck is down, it can only ever get worse.

Andamans.
Things take a turn for the worse overnight. First a small cruiser force manages to get among the retreating British carriers and manages to dispatch the Illustrious. The escorting British ships do absolutely nothing.

Japanese Ships
CA Mogami
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CV Indomitable, Shell hits 3
CV Illustrious, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Dorsetshire
CA Exeter, Shell hits 1
CL Hobart
CL Ceres
CL Glasgow
DD Patterson
DD Craven
DD Porter
DD Bulmer

They come back for a second time.

Japanese Ships
CA Mogami
DD Hagikaze

Allied Ships
CV Indomitable, Shell hits 1, on fire
CV Illustrious, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
DD Bulmer

In a night battle the US surface fleet manages to get heavily defeated by the admittedly superior Japanese fleet.

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo
BB Hiei, Shell hits 2
DD Amatsukaze
DD Ikazuchi, Shell hits 3
DD Asagiri
DD Ushio

Allied Ships
CA Chester, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Shell hits 3
CL Caledon, Shell hits 2
DD Mustin, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Arunta
DD Isaac Sweers
DD La Triomphant, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

In a second battle they finish off the Chester and Isaac Sweers, in a third battle sink the CV Formidable and then in a fourth and fifth battle sink the Indomitable. Throughout the whole series of battles none of the 6 Royal Navy battleships is even spotted.

We move to the morning phase, 700 allied aviators are ready on the bases at Ceylon and Trincomalee. Weather is fine at Ceylon and light clouds at Trincomalee, the Japanese fleet is spotted seven hexes away and retribution is ready. Over 300 fighters are ready to fly LRCAP over the Hornet and Enterprise, two hexes away from Trincomalee.
Then the really bad things start happening. Hornet reacts towards the enemy.
Only 15 land based fighters are able to provide cover, along the with her entire fighter wing. She is blown out of the water. The action then moves to the Enterprise, 21 land based fighters rise to defend. The Enterprise is blown out of the water.
Now the allies turn to attack. With all of her fighters on CAP, the 28 SBDs of the Hornet attack unescorted, not a single plane survives. From Ceylon, 6 B-26s rise to attack, one even gets to miss the Hiyo before being destroyed by flak. None of the other 100 or so bombers attack. From Trincomalee, not even a single plane attacks.


Overall.
It is astonishing how quickly things change. Just two turns ago I was quietly confident of winning before 1944, now I am looking at the complete destruction of the allied fleet. I think I want to cry.

[yubari]

Aye Itdepends, you are absolutely right, very poor recon on my part. The geography of the area makes it very difficult to recon the entrances to the Indian ocean. I had floatplanes operating on the islands off the coast of Sumatra until about a couple of weeks ago when FatR took them, and have been basing Catalinas on and off in the Cocos Islands until today. Unfortunately they only ever managed to spot the 2 light carriers. I suppose that I could have used picket xAKLs in the Indian Ocean but I don`t think that that is a historically realistic move.

Hi Canoerebel, unfortunately the situation has only got worse, I have now lost 8 fleet carriers plus a fistful of cruiser in exchange for 3 light carriers, I don't think I have ever seen such a disastrous defeat in this game.

Vicberg, that looks to be about the only option I have left, the Allied navy essentially ceased to exist with that last turn.

[krupp_88mm]

only God can help you now

[vicberg]

Things look dark right now, but you'll get a carrier advantage again. The rest of 42 and part of 43 will be quiet in terms of naval.

However, you already have a land and air advantage that will only get better, so hit em where they ain't, and that means land attack. It will wipe out any naval advantage. It plays into your strengths (land, air) and maximizes his weaknesses (land). And because he has a lot committed to PH, it's questionable what he can defend with. He's already given you Rangoon in mid-42, which is a surprise because it's strategic importance. That should be a clue that he's somewhat stretched (I'm haven't been reading his AAR, so I have no idea), but that's a real surprise. So to protect your divs in the Andamans, you only have around 10-15 hexes from Rangoon that you need to take...if you can slip a few supply TFs into Rangoon (tricky because of the KB), that will alleviate the monsoon supply issues into Burma. Who knows, with good luck and lots o'planes you can get your divs into thailand or malaysia and put him back on the defensive again.

[Canoerebel]

Yubari,

At the time I wrote my comments (above), I already knew about the second day of the battle. So my comments apply to your current situation: You Can Come Back!

The Allies can recover from all but two events in AE. The only two things that are terminal for the Allies are (1) Japanese auto victory and (2) the Allied player giving up in 1942 or '43 after suffering defeat in a one-sided carrier battle.

Your situation will force you to be creative and patient, but it can be done. You just need a bit of time for the fog to clear and your morale to recover. Don't give up the ship!

[yubari]

In an act of utter cowardice, the Allied commander decides to surrender.

Here was the message from the last turn with FatR.

Well, I can't say I'm sorry for doing my best to win, but I can say, that I understand your pain. Certainly the last replays are not something that I'd enjoy to see happening to my forces. In roundabout ways (you'll see what situation I expected and what strange events transpired behind the scenes in my AAR after the game), luck presented me a near-perfect opportunity to engage, when I believed my plans to be most likely foiled. From now on, I won't ever complain, that chance doesn't favor me.

But while damage inflicted is immense and crippling, I have no doubt that Allies can recover and take their revenge later. It's not like I'm in the position to pull off more major conquests, particularly as my carrier aviation will need a couple of months to recover, Allies already seem to be getting an edge in quality in air war, and your play, as a whole, is strong. To be frank, I was getting a bit desperate, after recent failures, although in the end it worked in my favor, pushing me to take a greater risk than I would have been inclined to take normally. This victory will give the Empire significant breathing room, preventing the possibility of early collapse, and probably will allow to retake Andamans, but by no means it decides the game


And here is my surrender message.

Well I have spent a couple of days thinking about this but I have to say that the situation looks absolutely hopeless and so I think that I shall have to surrender.
As you will find out if you read my AAR, the reason for my disastrous defeat is that not only was the Enterprise out of action from the torpedo, the Hornet was with her providing escort, but also all of my bombers were set on 20 percent naval search and 50 percent ASW. As a result two carriers were not even at the battle, and of the other carriers, 70 percent of my bombers were not able to participate in the crucial allied morning attack. Had those bombers taken part then we would probably have seen a fairly even battle, or maybe a slight Japanese tactical victory, certainly any Japanese carrier taking three bombs would stand a good chance of sinking on the 40 or so hex return to Palembang or Singapore.

As we stand now I will not have carrier equality until about March 1944 and even then the Japanese planes will be better, the improved Zero A6M5 will be more than a match for the Hellcat I imagine. Of course I would be able to rely on my improving land based air but unfortunately in that last battle around 97 percent of my bombers didnt attack, and about 88 percent of my fighters decided not to fly CAP over my carriers. The land based air was essentially useless against the KB. In addition the allied ships were absolutely helpless, barely getting a single shot on target. I think that another 600 or so turns in which I am completely helpless is a waste of both of our time.

If we go back to the battle of Hawaii, I think that it was unfair of you to ask for me to stop the night attacks. While I agree that the number of planes destroyed on the ground did seem somewhat excessive, it was at a time of high moonlight, and I guess that the base was hugely overstacked on a level 1 airfield. I regret not continuing those attacks, particularly when it became clear that US flak was all but useless, it turned a battle that should have taken months into one that was over in a few days. Indeed more than likely I think that I would have ultimately won the battle.
Anyway, sorry for this cowardly decision. You deserve a better opponent than me and I can send my password if you want to continue.

You are probably right Canoerebel, the allies can certainly still win the war but I am afraid that I just do not think that I will enjoy it. If FatR wants to continue, and anyone should want to take over this complete catastrophe then PM me and I can send the allied password.

I still have a PBEM game as the Japanese going which is now in Mid December 1942 and so getting to 1945 in that will become my priority.

Oh, I nearly forgot, the final points.