Amazing moved factory recovery times

[sillyflower]

It seems to me extraordinary that 7 days after some bureaucrat decides a factory (more accurately a mass of large factories including component suppliers etc) should be dismantled and moved, it has not only moved several hundred miles with its workers but is already (usually) producing 50% of stepped-up wartime production.

Is this a realistic when separating performance from propaganda - insofar as that may be possible? If not, this needs a tweak or a good arm wrenching.

If accurate I am speechless with awe and filled with a desire to go and live in what must be the world's most efficient economy free from the shackles of health and safety. Last year it took us 3 days over a bank holiday weekend to move offices for 300 staff about 4 miles, and not exactly from a standing start with all furniture, wiring etc already in. Plus perhaps equivalent of a total 2 days 'production' lost before and after move. That's apparently considered very efficient.

OK, we could have been quicker if we had shot a couple of employees and forced all the others to carry all their files etc to our new location, but that's health and safety, HR etc etc for you.

Over to Pavel and other experts.

[Dietrich1941]

You have to love British humour This may account for some of the 1942 games with the Soviets encircling Breslau.

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

It seems to me extraordinary that 7 days after some bureaucrat decides a factory (more accurately a mass of large factories including component suppliers etc) should be dismantled and moved, it has not only moved several hundred miles with its workers but is already (usually) producing 50% of stepped-up wartime production.

\

Soviet production continues to be a complete mystery to me (which is really unfortunate when playing as the Soviets [:)]), but I thought that a given factory group produced nothing until the indicated repair level reached 100% [&:]

[khyberbill]

It seems to me extraordinary that 7 days after some bureaucrat decides a factory (more accurately a mass of large factories including component suppliers etc)

Now that is interesting. I haven't gotten the game yet but in the old Eastern Front and WIR, I believe it took three months before production would restart after moving factories.

[Aurelian]

It's a bit of a mystery to mee too. Just how many heavy guns am I making anyway..................

But I just looked at the manual, and factories stop working at greater than 50% damage. (psge 282)

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

It's a bit of a mystery to mee too. Just how many heavy guns am I making anyway..................

But I just looked at the manual, and factories stop working at greater than 50% damage. (psge 282)

Well I was half right then [:D]

[Aurelian]

ORIGINAL: pompack

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

It's a bit of a mystery to mee too. Just how many heavy guns am I making anyway..................

But I just looked at the manual, and factories stop working at greater than 50% damage. (psge 282)

Well I was half right then [:D]

[:D]

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Aurelian


But I just looked at the manual, and factories stop working at greater than 50% damage.

but at 50% damage they produce at half rate - strictly have a 50% chance of producing at full rate. At 40% damage have a 60% chance etc

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
It seems to me extraordinary that 7 days after some bureaucrat decides a factory (more accurately a mass of large factories including component suppliers etc) should be dismantled and moved, it has not only moved several hundred miles with its workers but is already (usually) producing 50% of stepped-up wartime production.

Is this a realistic when separating performance from propaganda - insofar as that may be possible? If not, this needs a tweak or a good arm wrenching.

ORIGINAL: Manual, p.282
Factories will stop producing if they receive damage greater than fifty percent. Factories will automatically repair themselves during the logistics phase at a rate determined by the type of factory as follows:

• Oil, 1%
• Resource, Heavy Industry 2%
• Synthetic Fuel, Vehicle, Manpower, Aircraft and AFV/Combat Vehicle, Port, Railyard 3%

Regarding evacuation damage:

ORIGINAL: Manual
All evacuated factory points will be heavily damaged and will require repair before they become operational and recommence expansion.

This damage seems - no official info on this - governed by the formula

DMG = 25+random(75)

or maybe worse.

As stated by Joel Billings on this tm.asp?m=2708817 thread regarding production of damaged factories:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings
The way it should work, is once a factory is below 50%, the chance it will produce on any given turn is equal to:

100-current damage

So a 30 damaged factory has an 70% chance of producing in any given turn.

It's unclear whether damaged factories expand or not.

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
If accurate I am speechless with awe and filled with a desire to go and live in what must be the world's most efficient economy free from the shackles of health and safety. Last year it took us 3 days over a bank holiday weekend to move offices for 300 staff about 4 miles, and not exactly from a standing start with all furniture, wiring etc already in. Plus perhaps equivalent of a total 2 days 'production' lost before and after move. That's apparently considered very efficient.

Not accurate at all, sorry.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

This damage seems - no official info on this - governed by the formula

DMG = 25+random(75)

or maybe worse.

.

In 2 games vs AI all my factories got 75% damage. PBEM in 3 games all got 50% so doesn't look very random in practice.

Standard 75% damage would seem more realistic but I simply don't have the data

[BletchleyGeek]

Some math on this.

We have a T-34 factory of capacity 50, with damage of 47% at Turn X. Let's see how many tanks it might be producing. Let p be the probability of the factory producing its capacity.

At Turn X: p0 = 0.53
At Turn X+1 : p1 = 0.56
At Turn X+2 : p2 = 0.59

Now we have three independent random events (i.e. the factory produces its full cap of T-34s).

Probability of producing 150 T-34's after 3 weeks = p0 * p1 * p2 = 0.1751, i.e. in seventeen out of every 100 games with the same situation.

Probability of producing 100 T-34's after 3 weeks = p0*(1-p1)*p2 + p0*p1*(1-p2) + (1-p0)*p1*p2 = 0.4145, i.e. in 41 out of every 100 games.

Probability of producing 50 T-34's after 3 weeks = p0*(1-p1)*(1-p2) + (1-p0)*p1*(1-p2) + (1-p0)*(1-p1)*p2 = 0.3255, i.e. in 32 out of every 100 games.

Probability of producing 0 T-34's after 3 weeks = (1-p0 * 1-p1 * 1-p2) = 0.08478, i. e. in 8 out of every 100 games.

You can see that this slightly beneficial to the factory owner, since the probability of getting the full production in those three weeks is about the double of getting none, being the norm to get just 50 T-34s in three weeks.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower
In 2 games vs AI all my factories got 75% damage. PBEM in 3 games all got 50% so doesn't look very random in practice.

Standard 75% damage would seem more realistic but I simply don't have the data

In my PBEM GC the Leningrad KV-1 factory got 86% damage after evacuation, Khakov's T-34 factory got 78%.

In any case, your data plus my data are just 5 games. I think it is too scant to claim that the system is not working as designed.

EDIT: It wasn't Kiev, but Leningrad [;)]

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Dietrich1941

You have to love British humour

[:-] I'm sure you did not mean to be rude, Dietrich but I am a lawyer so do not have a sense of humour.

[Mike Parker]

Some math on this.

We have a T-34 factory of capacity 50, with damage of 47% at Turn X. Let's see how many tanks it might be producing. Let p be the probability of the factory producing its capacity.

At Turn X: p0 = 0.53
At Turn X+1 : p1 = 0.56
At Turn X+2 : p2 = 0.59

Now we have three independent random events (i.e. the factory produces its full cap of T-34s).

Probability of producing 150 T-34's after 3 weeks = p0 * p1 * p2 = 0.175112, i.e. in seventeen out of every 100 games with the same situation.

Probability of producing 100 T-34's after 3 weeks = (p0 * p1 + p1 * p2 + p0 * p2)/3 = 0.31, i.e. in 31 out of every 100 games.

Probability of producing 50 T-34's after 3 weeks = (p0 + p1 + p2) / 3 = 0.56, i.e. in 56 out of every 100 games.

Probability of producing 0 T-34's after 3 weeks = (1-p0 * 1-p1 * 1-p2) = 0.084788, i. e. in 8 out of every 100 games.

You can see that this slightly beneficial to the factory owner, since the probability of getting the full production in those three weeks is about the double of getting none, being the norm to get just 50 T-34s in three weeks.

Not sure where the error is but something is wrong with this as the probabilities should sum to 100% but instead 17+31+56+8= 112%

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Mike Parker

Some math on this.

We have a T-34 factory of capacity 50, with damage of 47% at Turn X. Let's see how many tanks it might be producing. Let p be the probability of the factory producing its capacity.

At Turn X: p0 = 0.53
At Turn X+1 : p1 = 0.56
At Turn X+2 : p2 = 0.59

Now we have three independent random events (i.e. the factory produces its full cap of T-34s).

Probability of producing 150 T-34's after 3 weeks = p0 * p1 * p2 = 0.175112, i.e. in seventeen out of every 100 games with the same situation.

Probability of producing 100 T-34's after 3 weeks = (p0 * p1 + p1 * p2 + p0 * p2)/3 = 0.31, i.e. in 31 out of every 100 games.

Probability of producing 50 T-34's after 3 weeks = (p0 + p1 + p2) / 3 = 0.56, i.e. in 56 out of every 100 games.

Probability of producing 0 T-34's after 3 weeks = (1-p0 * 1-p1 * 1-p2) = 0.084788, i. e. in 8 out of every 100 games.

You can see that this slightly beneficial to the factory owner, since the probability of getting the full production in those three weeks is about the double of getting none, being the norm to get just 50 T-34s in three weeks.

Not sure where the error is but something is wrong with this as the probabilities should sum to 100% but instead 17+31+56+8= 112%

Hmmm, good catch. Will check.

EDIT: Fixed

[Helpless]

First of all in reality factories were no moving to some empty places. New locations had all kind of facilities already in place. Also not everything and everyone was moving. Only 10% of workers and 20% of engineers from Kharkov factory #183 (T-34) were moved to Urals (Nizhny Tagil)... the rest went to the front.

Another example of the evacuation pace - last echelons with T-34 factory personal left Kharkov on 19 of October and first 25 T-34 were assembled by December 8th 1941 in Nizhny Tagil.

In game all evacuation process is simplified due to the lack of all historical big locations and inability to move industries off-map. So you can move your factory to any existing town with free slots.

It's unclear whether damaged factories expand or not

No, they do not expand.

[DBeves]

Just wondering ...

How good is a game design when large parts of it are shrouded in mystery and you seem to have to have a degree in mathematics to have any hope of knowing what the hell is going on.

[Mike Parker]

I found the problem. Given your P0 P1 P2 then

P(150) and P(0) are as you say but

P(100) = P0*P1*(1-p2)+P0(1-P1)P2+(1-P0)*P1*P2 = .4145

P(50) = P0(1-P1)(1-P2)+(1-P0)P1(1-P2)+(1-p0)(1-P1)P2 = .3255

then all the Probabilities sum to 1

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: DBeves
Just wondering ...

How good is a game design when large parts of it are shrouded in mystery and you seem to have to have a degree in mathematics to have any hope of knowing what the hell is going on.

I think it's pretty good. Numbers should be self-explanatory, aren't they?

Your remark about "shrouded in mystery" reminds me of this:

ORIGINAL: Richard Feynman
In the South Seas there is a cargo cult of people. During the war they saw
airplanes land with lots of good materials, and they want the same
thing to happen now. So they've arranged to imitate things like
runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a
wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his head
like headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas--he's
the controller--and they wait for the airplanes to land. They're
doing everything right. The form is perfect. It looks exactly the
way it looked before. But it doesn't work. No airplanes land. So
I call these things cargo cult science, because they follow all the
apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but
they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land.

[:D]

[Mike Parker]

interestingly enough this is an expected value of 84 tanks produced.. or exactly 56% of max production.