Zero early war advantage

This new stand alone release based on the legendary War in the Pacific from 2 by 3 Games adds significant improvements and changes to enhance game play, improve realism, and increase historical accuracy. With dozens of new features, new art, and engine improvements, War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition brings you the most realistic and immersive WWII Pacific Theater wargame ever!

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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

Mdiehl, I'm not gonna bother responding to anything you say, until you start providing, at least, exact pages that, you think, contain the information supporting your arguments.

I'd have more sympathy if I had not already provided the quotes that go with this whole argument in the Matrix forums three times. You have the volumes. If you walked away thinking "Lundstrom said that the Japanese pilots were better, the Zero was better, and that USN pilots had a period of high losses until they figure out hard to do better" then you didn't read anything that Lundstrom wrote. You need to go back and reread both volumes. There's no reasonable way to conclude what you seem to have concluded. I could cite a few pages but really both volumes are so full of information that completely contradicts the "zero supremacy" myth that I could as easily cite almost any random page and you'd find another fact that contradicts the myth.
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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

And yes, FitS is not the First Team and ~ at Guadalcanal. Different authors. Different levels of detail. Lots of argumentation by anecdote in FitS, and not much actual in-depth exploration of the data.
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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

EDIT: And no, counting the numbers for Coral Sea/Midway by ignoring the fighter loss figures for the type loss figures for which you don't like is not a valid way to count them.

Not sure what you mean. The fighter loss figures for type are published by Lundstom. Not sure what you mean about "ignoring fighter loss figures for the type loss figures blah blah." I ignored nothing. You're just wrong. You're either remembering the facts wrong or you never read the facts in the first place.
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FatR
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
Not sure what you mean. The fighter loss figures for type are published by Lundstom. Not sure what you mean about "ignoring fighter loss figures for the type loss figures blah blah." I ignored nothing. You're just wrong. You're either remembering the facts wrong or you never read the facts in the first place.
Ah, so you're simply trolling. My bad, should have realized it earlier. As you've just shot your credibility in the head by stalwartly ignoring Allied losses you don't like, even after this was pointed to you (and it's not like the episode wasn't well-known to begin with, as a result a whole type was decided to be unfit for the front), it's not like there is any need to argue with you anymore, so on ignore you go.
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Big B
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Big B »

One of my many short comings in life is an intelligently guided will to stay away from yet another Zero vs P-40/F4F debate...but be that as it may, let caution go to the winds and dive in.

Mdiehl is pretty much correct and has been consistent over the years in pointing out that the Japanese superiority came in planning, numbers & position, interior lines, the relatively short supply lines visa vi the Allies early on, and most importantly - decidedly better aircraft range - combined with being on the offensive and therefore dictating the combat environment. The AVG's success was in a large part an outcome of their same ability to dictate the circumstances of combat. Yet...

Myths die very very hard. And beyond the 'Zero Superiority' myth, lies another one that has never died at all: and that is the myth of the superiority of the 'American 4 plane section' vs the 'Japanese 6 plane' section.

Any thoughtful and careful reading of Shores, Ford, and especially Lundstrom (adding up the numbers involved in any small encounter) will quickly reveal that any early 1942 aircombat almost always devolved down to 2 aircraft fighting 3, or 4 fighting 6 or more. That was an unavoidable outcome of organizational doctrine, with the Americans (& Allies) invariably on the short side of the mathematical equation. Given the generally (but not under all circumstances) greater maneuverability Japanese aircraft enjoyed - bringing more guns to the fight is what matters most - and it did matter a lot.
And no matter what the circumstances were, when combat devolved down to aircraft flights squaring off (so to say) the Japanese could always count on more guys in the immediate vicinity.
All other factors being somewhat equal or at least competitive - bringing the most to the fight has always been what matters - in any combat arena of near equals. Napoleon said "God is on the side of the bigger battalions"...it makes no difference in ground or air combat, or a teenage brawl ...if other factors are equal - "he who brings greater numbers has the advantage".

The fact is that the 4 aircraft flight was settled on early on, but I see no compelling evidence to see that 4>6, or multiples thereof.
Thatch got his way in the USN when tactics were being worked out, but Jimmy Flatley - another combat flight leader with war experience - was not convinced. The Fact the the USA won the war does not mean Flatley was wrong and Thatch was right....there were a few other mitigating circumstances that led to victory...even in 1942.

As for the expert sources we quote, Shores and Ford are still controversial in method and completeness of sources, and Lundstrom (who uses some of the same sources) is cautionary over the accuracy of revisionist Japanese sources, and also the accuracy of counting wrecks years after the war - those numbers are always being revised...no final word at all.

But in closing - it's not even necessary to debate the validity of sources, an open mind & and a little experience in any kind of fight will tell you that among near equals - numbers matter....and numbers the Japanese had on their side.

And with that - I'll sod-off...
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stuman
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by stuman »

ORIGINAL: Matto

I have similar experience included air war over Malaya (Buffalo) or Burma (Hurricane) ... Zero is still better, but not overwhelming like it really was ...

Matto, man you need to post more often [:)]
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stuman
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by stuman »

ORIGINAL: BossGnome

Hi,

I was wondering what the design decision was to remove the zero early war advantage that was included in the original WITP. I'm not necessarily saying I disagree with the combat results of AE, but isn't there an argument to be made that a significant factor in the zero's early successes was the unconventional sharp turns employed by the japanese pilots, which totally surprised and confused allied pilots for the first few months of the war?

Also, does anyone have any loss figures for air battles in the first few months of the war? In my current PBEM game, A6M2 losses against the philippine US airforce were around 3-2 in favor of the Japanese for the first 10 days or so of the war, until I pulled those boys out. In the original WITP, the philippines airforce just got decimated in 1-2 days[:D]

Boss, you need to post more often also ! [:)]
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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

Ah, so you're simply trolling.


Not at all. I was simply stating established facts that are so well established that only someone with not the slightest bit of background knowledge on the subject could disagree. I'll worry about my own creds, thanks. I've been eating, well, guys' like you, lunch on this subject for more than a decade.

Since I'm at home now and can dig up my archive, I'll refer you to the book(s) you CLAIM, probably in error, to have read. I'll assume you have the basic skills to get the full bibliographic reference to The First Team and The First Team and the Guadalcanal Campaign since you claimed to have read things written by Lundstrom (presumedly JOhn Lundstrom, not Alouitious Nagadoches Mushroom Lundstrom or some other bailout excuse I usually get from guys like you).

First Team (hereafter FT). Throughout the book generally and specifically, vis combat losses vs type. p.448. "From February 1942 through June 1942, the Navy's fighting squadrons shot down seventeen Japanese carrier fighters (3 A5M4s and 14 Zero fighters, sixteen pilots killed), while losing to them only ten wildcats (7 pilots killed)."

Lundstrom is fairly detailed in his counts, but credits two missing F4Fs to IJN A6Ms, although he notes that one may have been lost retiring along with VF8, and one from VF2 at Coral Sea. I make it 14 A6Ms to 8 F4Fs, with room for wiggles at about 1.8:1. It might even bet better yet for the F4Fs, depending on how you read the material about friendly AAA, that accounted for at least SOME of the F4Fs at Coral Sea. Regrettably, even a good researcher like Lundstrom can't account for every moment. But the data, such as they are, do not indicate any general Zero superiority over the Wildcat, much less anything like air supremacy. When matched on even terms vis a vis range, fatigue, and all that, the F4Fs won consistently.

Of course, if there were ANY merit to the claim of the vast superiority of IJN pilots, it should not have mattered that three of the planes were A5Ms, since that plane too was vastly more maneuverable than the F4F. If it were all about superior IJN pilots and superior IJN maneuverability, and alleged ignorance of USN pilots on how to combat a.c. that had better characteristics in some envelope, you'd expect some data to support that idea. But there is no data to support that idea. The claimed superiority of Zekes+IJN pilots over USN pilots in F4Fs is a complete, wholesale, fabrication that is utterly and completely devoid of any shade, shred or substance whatsoever.

Flatley's assessment right after Midway (25 June) was "Our planes and pilots, if properly handled, are more than a match for the enemy." (FT p.445).

Thach, by contrast, hated the F4F. But he still came out thinking that Japanese pilots were relatively untalented. "Any success our pilots may have against the Zero fighter.. is the result of the comparatively poor marksmanship of the Japanese, stupid mistakes made by a few of their pilots, and superior marksmanship and team work of some of our pilots." (FT p.441) and Thach was writing about an interval in which only he and two other pilots had even used the Beam Defense (aka Thach Weave).

Now, Lundstrom's second work (FTatGC) revised the F4F:A6M loss ratio from Coral Sea+Midway to 10:15 (p.4). So we again have a little wiggle room. A low end Wildcat superiority of 1.4 or 1.5:1 to a high end of around 2:1 from February 1942 thru June 1942.

Assuming that you'd read the latter source, you might have noticed where Lundstrom wrote "As demonstrated in The First Team, the U.S. Navy's deflection shooting and mutual support tactics already provided the foundation for success, despite the inferior performance of the rugged F4F-4 Wildcat.

The point is, NO ONE could make a credible claim of having read either of Lundstrom's two books on the subject and walk away claiming that the gist of Lundstrom's research shows that the A6M+pilot was superior to the F4F+pilot, or that the A6M was across the board superior, or that Japanese pilots were generally superior, or that the A6M dominated the fight in early war engagements, or even that the A6M achieved air superiority. At best, under sustained conditions that tried pilots and planes over a campaign, the Japanese eked out a basic draw at Guadalcanal against land based F4Fs. They consistenly lost, and badly at that, to US VF units in May and June 1942.
as a result a whole type was decided to be unfit for the front),

As usual, you are incorrect. Not only was the F4F type NOT decided to be "unfit for the front," it was in fact deployed to the PTO for front line carrier ops through 1945. It was the go-to plane for CVEs that were expected to provide their own air cover and support for amphibious ops. Granted, no design stayed static over the war. The FM2 Wildcat added about 100 HP but it otherwise had about the same clim/turn characteristics, and it manhandled later war Japanese types. (It shed weight by losing two of the six .50cal seen on the F4F-4, but it added fuel capacity and larger ammunition bays for the four .50s it retained, so the weight came out about the same.)

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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

Myths die very very hard. And beyond the 'Zero Superiority' myth, lies another one that has never died at all: and that is the myth of the superiority of the 'American 4 plane section' vs the 'Japanese 6 plane' section.


Agreed. But, ultimately, mutual support WAS better than letting cohesion disintegrate. That is something that both Thach and Flatley agreed on in June 1942. The Japanese had a long term problem with maintaining section cohesion, partly because of their 3-plane sections, and partly because their radios were about as useful in combat a.c. as a bicycle pump.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

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Rainer
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Rainer »

You're just wrong. You're either remembering the facts wrong or you never read the facts in the first place.
As usual, you are incorrect.
only someone with not the slightest bit of background knowledge on the subject could disagree

It's your style mdiehl.
But you probably will never learn why your reputation here is as it is.
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Erkki
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Erkki »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
Myths die very very hard. And beyond the 'Zero Superiority' myth, lies another one that has never died at all: and that is the myth of the superiority of the 'American 4 plane section' vs the 'Japanese 6 plane' section.


Agreed. But, ultimately, mutual support WAS better than letting cohesion disintegrate. That is something that both Thach and Flatley agreed on in June 1942. The Japanese had a long term problem with maintaining section cohesion, partly because of their 3-plane sections, and partly because their radios were about as useful in combat a.c. as a bicycle pump.

The fact that the Japanese didnt bother with radios and still insisted with 3-ship formations (just another form of the Idiotenreihe) does, to me, look like they clearly hadn't thought fighter vs. fighter combat all through. Very unlike the Germans(and their allies), and certain Russian, British and American individuals and organisations, by mid-42 at least. While it should be of no doubt that especially IJNAF pilots had gone through the toughest fighter school on Earth and were among the best pilots in the world, they didnt seem to understand the concepts of air war very well.

Maybe on the level of individual pilots, but certainly not as an organisation. The lack of radios(IJAAF) and their poor quality, aircraft design emphasis on range and manoeuvrability instead of speed(and like in the case of Zero, thin ailerons --> clearly made for low speed handling, non-existent high speed roll), the tactics and formations used, heck, even the lack of parachutes(esp. in IJAAF). They were even worse in that they, at first, didn't even try to improve things. They were very much like the Royal Air Force's Bomber Command, that could hit precisions targets in its night time raids so well that they didn't need blind bombing devices (they weren't hitting, nor even finding targets smaller than cities).

I'm by no means an expert in this era, the whole Pacific front etc. but having some experience flying combat flight simulators online, I too feel the pair-flight "finger four" is vastly superior to to 3-ship formations. Higher cohesion, less vulnerable and more flexible in that any of the 4 aircraft can switch roles/tasks in the middle of the battle immediately, and all covering each other. It however only works when using radio. I doubt the Japanese ever figured it out, but without radios it might truly have been better to use the 3 and 6-ship formations to bring more planes per section when they lacked the ability to do properly organised team work after the initial merge or bounce...
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Tullius »

@mdiehl

The early Zero bonus existed in WITP from 12/41 - 4/42 and was reduced every month. In 5/42 the bonus was gone. So your arguments based on the battle of the Coral Sea and Gudalcanal do not add anything. From what i had read in various sources it seems that the allied pilot does not know how to handle the Zero at first and used not adequate combat tactics. (The only exception was Chennault and his AVG because Chennault studied the air war over China). There was learning process and it seems the last point was the recovery of the Akutan Zero.

Many reports about superior numbers of Zero seems not really valid because often Zero were counted serval times as allied pilots had no clues about the extreme maneuver abilty of the Zero.

Akutan Zero
1275psi
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by 1275psi »

ahhhhhhh, good old Mhdiel -still trolling for his usual look I am so superior to you new chums rubbish.

Are you actually playing the game yet -or can't find an opponent? -your reputation and all............

Instead of picking fights -why don't you try to contribute something actually....................gee, interesting?

All newcomers - debating this brick is like trying to drink the pacific.
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Erkki
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Erkki »

ORIGINAL: 1275psi
ahhhhhhh, good old Mhdiel -still trolling for his usual look I am so superior to you new chums rubbish.

Are you actually playing the game yet -or can't find an opponent? -your reputation and all............

Instead of picking fights -why don't you try to contribute something actually....................gee, interesting?

All newcomers - debating this brick is like trying to drink the pacific.

I've tried the Med, too salty. Thanks.
spence
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by spence »

Anecdotal evidence aside the IJN pilots flying the Zero were well trained, well supplied and enjoyed operational numerical superiority for the first 6 months of the campaign. Their opponents in general flew aircraft that were obsolescent or obsolete by 1941. The Zero therefore dominated its opponents. The very long range at which they could be employed allowed them to show up first with the most most of the time. The aircraft itself was a modern design. It had its advantages and defects and there was inevitably a period of time when their enemies' air to air combat doctrines were out of synch with the specific weaknesses of the Zero.

However it should be remembered that the strategic calculus by the end of 1942 had the IJN/IJNAF irrevocably on the strategic defensive with the majority of those previously well trained pilots "pushing up daisies" or "feeding the fishes". At that time the Allied fighter units were still flying P-40Es, P-39Ds, F4F-3/4s and Hurricane IIs with the truly modern fighters mostly 6 months off in the future.

There is nothing in the historical record to suggest that operational fighting at even odds was any sort of demonstration of the superiority of the Zero. This game is a game of strategy. It therefore should be mostly about getting there first with the most. It should not be about demonstrating what at best was a marginal and fleeting tactical superiority of an certain airplane (or two).
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Nikademus »

ORIGINAL: Tullius

Many reports about superior numbers of Zero seems not really valid because often Zero were counted serval times as allied pilots had no clues about the extreme maneuver abilty of the Zero.


They wern't. At times there were lesser numbers of Zeros vs. enemy fighters. The contention that the Japanese only won air battles because they brought superior numbers is no more valid than claims that "they were all in a landing pattern....or the Allied fighters were at low power" whenever Allied fighters were brought down in greater numbers than their opposites. Even in cases where one side has more total fighters doesn't mean superiority as not every fighter gets a shot at an enemy. A really good example was the Malta battles. At times enemy escort fighters outnumbered the defenders by 10 - 20:1 but the defending scramblers still were able to do their job....sometimes inflicting equal or greater losses. Air battles are not like land battles.....there is no simple calculus. This is in fact, why original WitP gets it wrong.....by creating an exponentially more lethal combat environment the more fighters you pour into each air battle. This is not the case in Bombing the Riech which handles air combat far differently and where one can see very disparate #'s of enemy and friendly fighters battling it out, with results far less bloody in spite of lopsided numbers.
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crsutton
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: FatR

Well, and about the game, I feel that A6M2 is somewhat superior to Wildcats/Airacobras/Warhawks, with all else being equal, whether the altitude is restricted to the best MVR band or unrestrectied. But generally inferior to Hurricanes, who enjoy better ceiling, passable MVR (unlike most early Allied planes) and superior durability/armament.

Of course, once Allies start mixing P-38s in, things really start falling apart for Zero. Unless there is altitude restriction, there are not many solutions to combatting these beasts, that do not boil down to fielding more planes and swamping them with sheer numbers. So even if Japanese enjoy greater superiority over earlier Allied planes than they did IRL, I feel Allies are more than compensated for that by their next-generation planes...


Funny how experiences cause differing opinion. I found that the P39 and the F4F suffer greatly in fights with the zero in my campaign. But it may be a result of the height Cap that we set. We agreed to 29,000 feet but I did not realize that the wildcat could only go for 28,000 and some change. This gave my opponent a dive advantage with the zero and my poor wildcats suffered greatly. F3F could go higher and was a little faster. It faired better vs the zero. My experience is that the faster P40 could hold it's own. I think a lot of players at not looking at climb rate in the game when looking at the dive bonus. That is planes with a better climb rate tend to benefit from the dive more and also "break" the dive a lot faster.

It is why the tojo is such a monster early on. (fast, maneuverable, excellent climb rate and better pilots make for a death cocktail [;)]) The hellcat does not look great on paper unless you consider that it has a very good climb rate. I found it to be a tojo killer. All the late war Japanese ubers tend to have poor to average climb rates. It will be interesting to see how they do vs faster Allied planes that can outclimb them.
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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

While it should be of no doubt that especially IJNAF pilots had gone through the toughest fighter school on Earth and were among the best pilots in the world, they didnt seem to understand the concepts of air war very well.

They weren't the best pilots on earth. None of the data support that claim. Yes, their requirements for fighter school were extreme. But the requirements had nothing at all to do with being a good pilot. Being extremely selective is no advantage if you select for "the wrong stuff." Being physically fit was important to a degree, but all nations had that requirement. Being an able gymnast was utterly pointless. Having good vision and a sense of visual coordination and reaction to your a.c. controls was important, but deflection shooting was also important, and the Japanese pretty much ignored that skill completely. They weren't alone. But the USN used it to advantage against them.

Ultimately you have to get back to loss ratios and aircraft specs. The Zeke just did not, ever, have the "sweep the skies" effect that people see in WitP AARs. What it did have was a few instances in which superior numbers caught allied a.c. in positional disadvantage. If you cherry pick a couple of anecdotal instances to support your case, then you can make a case for anything. The Zeke's sustained performance was a definite superiority over F2s, a modest superiority over Hurricanes, and inferiority to P-40s, P-39s and F4Fs (and of course, extreme inferiority to all of the allies mid-war designs).
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by Ikazuchi0585 »

i regularly shoot down P39s and P40 pilots who try to dogfight Zeros in the high altitude realm. Now down low, they put up a better fight.
Whenever I see enemy planes at 29k, I don't try to play the altitude game and try to send them higher, I set them at 29 and teach them a lesson why planes that didn't have a supercharger didn't fly at 29k and how its a weakness. I don't NEED or RELY on the dive to win air battles.

Where top speeds are similar the severity of this check is less (instantaneous speed check), and Combat will depend more on Maneuver values at the given altitude, Firepower, Durability, and pilot Air to Air Skill.
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mdiehl
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RE: Zero early war advantage

Post by mdiehl »

Many reports about superior numbers of Zero seems not really valid because often Zero were counted serval times as allied pilots had no clues about the extreme maneuver abilty of the Zero.

Japanese pilots also counted Allied fighters many times over. Numerical estimation in AARs of the time were, on all parties, flawed. In general, Japanese estimation was typically substantially worse than allied estimation. Japanese AARs often reported shooting down many times more a.c. than the Allies had present on the battlefield, and of course their estimates of enemy casualties were typically inflated by a factor of three to twenty. Sometimes they got it right. Most of the time they were way off.

So to actually know how many a.c. were engaged, we have to look to modern accounts that use the data of the respective combatants. By all accounts, there were many more Japanese fighter type a.c. in the CBI theater, and the Philippines than there were Allied fighter types.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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