Dispatches from OKH: Q-Ball (Axis) v. Von Beeanie (SOV)

[PeeDeeAitch]

I would rather the soviets ooze through a deep Spiney Norman Hedgehog than sledgehammer through a line. The Hedgehog can pull back as well, it does not have to sit there and take the beating. More powerful units in towns and cities can also do wonders to the oozing units (I am getting more and more used to having some motorized/panzers near the front in towns to slap the ooze).

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
To get through a checkerboard with two "lines" (that's three hexes deep) in the way you comment, requires three turns and a bunch of units (since Soviet movement allowances usually mean that when a Soviet unit enters an enemy ZOC, it will stay there until the end of turn). The MP costs to keep supplied the "spearhead" of such an "oozing" penetration would be pretty high, meaning little supply arriving to those units and a greater attrition for the Soviet motor pool. Which is the second most important limiting factor for Soviet offensives in 1941: in two turns 40k vehicles were put away for repairs. It's pretty simple to see that this will lead to a ever decreasing logistic ability for the RKKA.

Hmmh, but does it make sense to have to employ something like this true "Checkerboard form" that seems to be quite an artificial product of the game mechanics (in contrast to using just some armored cavalry regiments in the frontline, and the bulk of forces behind that, no matter whether defensively or offensively)?

Maybe Q-ball's earlier comment holds some truth. Basically that if the Russians avoid mistakes during summer 41, and perform a more cohesive offensive with hindsight during winter, the best thing the Germans can still achieve is a pat situation in summer 42, and a slow retreat towards Berlin after that. Would this be either the course that the war would taken had the Russian command performed better, or is it simply a problem of the game inducing the winter catastrophe no matter what the prior course/losses, defenses etc.?
If it is the former, then house-rules, or adding optional incentives/rules to force Russian mistakes could make the game last longer ("politically unacceptable to lose territory without battle, or loss of additional morale/resources, drop in national moral and production or such").

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
To get through a checkerboard with two "lines" (that's three hexes deep) in the way you comment, requires three turns and a bunch of units (since Soviet movement allowances usually mean that when a Soviet unit enters an enemy ZOC, it will stay there until the end of turn). The MP costs to keep supplied the "spearhead" of such an "oozing" penetration would be pretty high, meaning little supply arriving to those units and a greater attrition for the Soviet motor pool. Which is the second most important limiting factor for Soviet offensives in 1941: in two turns 40k vehicles were put away for repairs. It's pretty simple to see that this will lead to a ever decreasing logistic ability for the RKKA.

Hmmh, but does it make sense to have to employ something like this true "Checkerboard form" that seems to be quite an artificial product of the game mechanics (in contrast to using just some armored cavalry regiments in the frontline, and the bulk of forces behind that, no matter whether defensively or offensively)?

It's an abstraction which looks peculiar on the map and emerges of the soft ZOCs rules and the representation of units as discrete counters confined to a single hex. The way I have found useful to think of it is as follows. Go to John Tiller's Smolensk 41 campaign scenario. Does it look sparse? Get that bunch of hexes, counters and turns, put them on a bag and run it through the "abstraction filter" of one week turns, division size units and 10-mile hexes. What do you get?

The beautiful thing is that I am finding myself using exactly the same tactics as in PanzerCampaigns but with one thounsandth of the clicking.

[ComradeP]

Judging by how it was explained to me, the first winter is indeed intended to cut the Axis down a size no matter what, because that's to a certain extent what happened historically.

The difficulty with launching a 1942 offensive wasn't intended, and several things to limit Soviet effectiveness have already been implented, but forts are still too easy to create and difficult to breach for the Axis. I've suggested that there should be a maximum of level 3 forts outside of urban hexes. It's just too easy to fortify the entire line now.

I think that the problem facing those who try to "hedgehog" or strongpoint their defenses is that the game mechanics don't really allow this to be a viable option, either. The vast number of smaller Soviet units can very easily ooze past hedgehogs, while being virtually impervious to counter-attacks. Then, after the hedgehogs are surrounded, and out of supply, they are just as easily picked off as the troops in the open. This allows the Soviet player to simply avoid the losses that they will take by the usual tactic of broad front offensives, and pick off the hedgehogs, one by one.

The hedgehog can also withdraw. If you do so one hex at a turn, the Soviets will gain territory slowly and Axis losses through combat will be low, as the stacks should still be good enough to hold off most attacks.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Judging by how it was explained to me, the first winter is indeed intended to cut the Axis down a size no matter what, because that's to a certain extent what happened historically.

The difficulty with launching a 1942 offensive wasn't intended, and several things to limit Soviet effectiveness have already been implented, but forts are still too easy to create and difficult to breach for the Axis. I've suggested that there should be a maximum of level 3 forts outside of urban hexes. It's just too easy to fortify the entire line now.

Or better, that only with the concourse of engineers you can get past level 3 on non-urban hexes.

[ComradeP]

The Soviets can put 3 sapper regiments in each Rifle corps if they desire to do so, or just fill their army HQ's with sappers. It would favour the Soviets.

I'd prefer a cap.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

The Soviets can put 3 sapper regiments in each Rifle corps if they desire to do so, or just fill their army HQ's with sappers. It would favour the Soviets.

I'd prefer a cap.

Good point, industrious players can hoard engineers for that.

The question is then whether Level 3 forts can account for the effectiveness of Soviet defenses at Kursk (whose effectiviness might well have been overrated). Or whether they can be attained in a realistic time frame. The RKKA had four months to prepare the Kursk death trap. Would have been the 1942 RKKA able to entrech as the 1943 RKKA did in four months? Did the Soviet Union have the resources and experience to do that in 1942? I'd say no, that it wasn't possible.

[Schmauser]

I stated a new game over the weekend using beta 5. My armaments are at 100K at the start of turn 4 (down from 600K) at start. Methinks I will be out of armament points shortly.

I am also seeing approx 140K germans being returned to their units each turn. This is very high compared to my previous game.

Possibly related?


BTW, are you still looking for turn 53 games under the old patch? If so, I'll email you one.

[ComradeP]

The question is then whether Level 3 forts can account for the effectiveness of Soviet defenses at Kursk (whose effectiviness might well have been overrated). Or whether they can be attained in a realistic time frame. The RKKA had four months to prepare the Kursk death trap. Would have been the 1942 RKKA able to entrech as the 1943 RKKA did in four months? Did the Soviet Union have the resources and experience to do that in 1942? I'd say no, that it wasn't possible.

The strength of the Soviet defences was depth, not fixed fortifications, otherwise they would've been screwed after the initial German breakthrough in the south. You can theoretically create level 4 forts in 4 turns, but on average it will take a couple of turns longer than that, still nothing close to 4 months.

One other option that was discussed was to make fort creation cost resources after a certain level. The Soviets spend significant amounts of material to create the depth they wanted at Kursk. All the Soviet player has to do in the game is sit still in a certain hex for a month or so.

Engineers are also not all that effective against forts currently, there's still a significant variability in terms of whether they reduce fort levels. Spoiling attacks are as such not really effective and at least in 1941-1942, they'll lead to lots of battles being lost by the Germans and thus lots of leaders being sacked. The battles won percentage compared to battles lost makes spoiling attacks problematic early on in the war.

Another significant problem is that an Axis 1942 or 1943 offensive will be limited in scope and will target a certain area. The Soviets can rail everybody and their mothers to the area in just a couple of turns. That, together with forts, makes attacking in 1942-1943 problematic.

In a way, I'd say the game currently encourages the Axis to stage limited offensives and spend most turns simply digging in, as post-1941 offensives are costly and the chance that they'll unhinge the Soviet defensive position to the degree that it's threatened isn't too significant.

[JAMiAM]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Engineers are also not all that effective against forts currently, there's still a significant variability in terms of whether they reduce fort levels. Spoiling attacks are as such not really effective and at least in 1941-1942, they'll lead to lots of battles being lost by the Germans and thus lots of leaders being sacked. The battles won percentage compared to battles lost makes spoiling attacks problematic early on in the war.

If there is one thing I like about the morale changes with v 1.03 Beta 3, and beyond, it is the fact that the reward:cost ratio for spoiling attacks has been severely reduced, likewise reducing the gamey supply draining attacks long-term effectiveness. Morale is more precious than gold now, since it is virtually non-recoverable beyond the NM level, or for those nations with really poor morale to begin with, beyond the 50/75 mark for refitting and long-term resting.

In general, if you're not 80-90% sure that the attack will succeed, then don't launch it, unless you want to start a bad slide down to mediocrity. I'd recommend an even higher % of success for your precious 90 morale units, since you can win 20 battles, lose 1, and come out behind.

[ComradeP]

That can quickly bite the Axis in the behind as the Soviet CV modifiers mean even theoretically easy attacks can result in a loss. Morale hits matter less for the Soviets. A mostly 50-60 morale army can and (by the game's standards) did win them the war. The Axis need good units to have a chance to survive.

[Q-Ball]

OKH Report, 1/1/42

OK, back to the war...

I like the feedback here, and based upon that, plus necessity, I am employing a more flexible CHECKERBOARD defense. I unfortunately must give up ground, because in several places, my units are in no condition to fight, and without fortifications will get easily rolled by the Soviets.

I started to form it this turn, though couldn't complete it to due to MP limitations. I pulled more units off the line, though there is a limit to how much they can build: I have 180,000 Manpower in the pool and climbing, I just don't have enough RIFLES to equip replacements.

The Front, in general, is close to complete, runaway collapse. I foresee losing 20-30 hexes this winter along most of the line.

Soviet Attacks: This turn, there were 63 successful attacks, and 12 Holds. That is my highest HOLD figure so far. 60+ attacks is the norm.

I also had 5 successful COUNTERATTACKS; two were by the Finns right along the NO MOVE line, and 2 were in front of STALINO, where I have 2 Panzer Corps; they attacked 2 stacks against the city, and routed 4 divisions. Thank goodness for small favors. The Romanian Mountain troops also knocked back a Soviet Cav Corps near Kharkov.

SECTOR UPDATES:

NORTH OF LAKE ILMEN: Here we are fine; 18th Army is holding the 3 hexes up to the Finns; we still hold Novgorod. I have been stripping 18th Army of Divisions to send south, the last 2 full-strength ones are moving next turn.

16th and 2nd ARMY: This sector is in full collapse, particularly south of Lake Ilmen.

In 16th Army, every single units is UNREADY. We have been pushed off several fort lines, and hold the last line of Level 3 forts just south of the Lake; after that, I don't have prepared positions. Not sure what to do with this sector.

I have a Panzer Corps parked in Velikye Luki; I have resisted the tempatation to use them, and won't until the Reds are close to the city. Until then, we just retreat.

9th Army, 3rd Panzer: We are retreating on Vyazma, and Rhzev will fall shortly. We at least have some cohesion here.

4th Army: See below; collapse. We have a Panzer Corps in Bryansk, along with a backup trench line, so we can hold that a couple turns. After that, probably more retreat.

6th and 17th Army: As good as any sector

Crimea: Close to collapse. The Reds easily rolled the size-4 forts manned by 4 German divisions at the top of the Crimea. The Romanians are also routed. I have to commit a Panzer Corps to contain this breakout, but I don't know if I can.

So, the front is close to collapse. I have to hope the Reds outrun their supplies, but if my INTEL is correct, they don't have any supply problems. It's GREEN all over.

[Encircled]

But you are still a lot further forward than most

You have room to retreat, and the blizzard affects are less in Feb

Keep the faith!

[Pipewrench]

great work q-ball. thanks for the work in showing us your aar.

I don't think your situation is a lost cause just yet.

your going to have to retreat and give ground. as you give ground could you possibly set up a funnel that tempts the soviets into commiting forces heavily thru just before the end of the blizzard? Something with good tank country that could be exploited with your rested panzer divisions? A railhead exploitation would be key as you would pull back faster originally than rail can be built and then with the weather change and the created sailent you engineered you hit with all your motorized and armor in the flank to cut the rail and disrupt his hq.

have fun and think positive.

[bevans]

Yup, a lot of very interested onlookers from the Axis playing contingent on what is possible for the Axis in '42. You ran the offensive as well as anyone and against a very good player and your army may be battered, but it is intact with good weather not so far away..

And remember, at the end of winter in '42, the German front line looked like a map of coastal Norway. All you need is a repeat of history: an opponent who overextends then gets rolled up come the good weather by the still potent Panzer Corps. Good luck and good gaming.

[Wild]

Hi Q-ball, really enjoying your AAR.(Also all of your WitP AE AAR's).
You have played great so don't lose hope. We really are in desperate need of AAR's that go into '42 or '43, so we can make some informed decisions on balancing for the game. Your opinion means a lot to me as i know you are level headed and logical, unlike many of the hotheads that post in this forum.

[Q-Ball]

OKH Reports, 1/8/41:

The Entire front from Kursk to Leningrad is close to collapsing; I hope now to hold out somewhere around Smolensk, and limit my territory gives to 30 hexes this winter.

This turn, there were 55 successful Soviet attacks along the line, with 10 Holds. The number was slightly less, as I am breaking contact in some sectors, and pulling back.

Army Group North:
South of Lake Ilmen, 16th Army has fallen apart. This is a major Soviet effort, as I have identified 3 Shock Army as the main culprit. Clearly, this is a major problem.

I have sent 3 Fresh Infantry Divisions that were resting in Leningrad, plus 2 Panzer Divisions. I have been using Leningrad as a refresh depot, since I have to garrison the place anyway.

North of Lake Ilmen, there are no attacks at all, and in fact, I counterattacked a couple places using FINNS, and routed units.

Army Group Center:
I pulled the line back a couple hexes into a Checkerboard; this limited attacks somewhat, but I am still trying to hold Vyazma; mostly, because I need it to refresh Infantry Divisions.

OREL fell a couple turns back, and I am falling back on Bryansk in stages, where I have an emergency defense line prepared.

Army Group South:
I am holding quite well around Kharkov and the Donbas; I expect to lost the Donbas, as he is pushing hard along the shores of the Sea of Azov. The Crimea is a disatser, though.

[Q-Ball]

OKH Report, 1/15/42:

In an ominous development, my opponent has figured out how to use Paras. This is now leading to complete collapse of my positions. It's just as well, because all the fort lines I carefully constructed are toast. The objective now is saving the Wehrmacht.

Here are a couple devious Para uses. That RR one in particular is a game-changer; if the Soviet players can do that, the Germans basically won't have a rail network. Try defending a winter line when you can't rotate units to cities, or get reinforcements or supplies there!

QUESTION: The two units that disappeared, in the COMBAT REPORT, it said only 150 Paras actually dropped. Does that mean the "Parent" unit still exists, that only a partial dropped? Can you do that? Where did those units actually go?

I would like some feedback on this tactic. It's much worse than Partisans for the following reasons:

1. It can be targeted
2. Before you can repair the breech, you need to get a Combat Unit there to "clear" the hex. RR Repair can't be done in an enemy hex.
3. It can be done over and over (I expect more tommorow)

The only defense is to station Combat Units on the Critical rail junctions, but looking at my map, I would have needed 6 Combat units to prevent that (since a drop anywhere along the line would have sufficed). And that assuming he can't drop adjacent to a Security Unit.

This is by far the best use of Paras I have seen, and the first effective one. Hate to be the guinea pig!

[Q-Ball]

1/15/42: Army Group North/Center

Here is an overall shot of the disaster befalling both AGN and AGC.

South of Lake Ilmen, a complete breakout. I have fresh units there, but due to the cut-off of the entire rail net, my supply situation is terrible. The REDS, on the other hand, are GREEN in supply in every unit. This is a disaster. I may have to pull the Finns back into Leningrad. I don't expect to lose many units, though.

In ARMY GROUP CENTER, I have at least 3-4 divisions that are in risk of cut-off and destruction. I moved them back and they are still in contact in hope of saving them, but I expect them to be destroyed. If that happens, I may as well just keep running WEST.

It is sad to say, but I hope to be able to hold the Russians at the territory I captured by Turn 4.

ATTACKS: This turn, the Soviets made 54 successful attacks, and 10 failed ones.

I made 5 successful counterattacks; 2 were by FINNS, assaulting the flank of the units up against 18th Army. 1 was the PARAS, and 2 more were lone Tank Bdes. 4 attacks failed.

[Pipewrench]

talk about following history,

para drop was done in operation mars on Dorogobuzh in January 42 and was repelled by the germans. Talk about following the text-book, Your facing what the Germans faced so keep your head up, spring is around the corner.