Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Miller]

After Chungking, Changsha is probably the hardest Chinese base to crack. As the Japs you really have to bring the kitchen sink to have any chance of taking it, and that means stripping assets from other parts of the country.

As the Japs I usually just leave a couple of Divs there to keep the Alled player honest and look for easier targets to take.

[Canoerebel]

Chinese units are awfully weak against Japanse troops behind forts or in good terrain, so Japan has a decision to make at the outset of the war:  set up a very good MLR and let China languish, or concentrate and really go after the Chinese in a major way.  Changsha should be too tough to handle, so the Japanese need to focus on Kweilin, Henyang, Siangtan, or Sian.  An early victory at any of these bases pierces what should be the Chinese MLR, creating a crisis that will stress the Allied player.

[SqzMyLemon]

Going after Changsha first was the problem as you stated. Nothing else was consolidated prior to stripping those fronts for the Changsha offensive which has led to the current situation. If the Japanese are going to mass for a single objective, which in many cases they must in order to overcome high fort and terrain modifiers, they'd better have spent the time building up forts of their own where they'd have to be thin. In this case it looks like that wasn't done.

As many supply producing bases that can easily be captured and held should be the initial Japanese objectives, once the supply squeeze starts to hit the Chinese then go after the harder targets. If the Chinese are massed and defending fewer bases they can be outmaneuvered rather than taking them head on.

The Japanese must take the time to consolidate/fortify before they mass to strike along a single axis. The Chinese may suffer from poor quality and supply issues at start, but their numbers more than make up for it against lone Japanese units without the benefit of forts/terrain to counter. Ignore the offensive capabilities of the Chinese at your peril if you get sloppy with Japan.

[DarenDF]

Canoerebel, I just read your entire AAR when I should have been doing schoolwork, please post more so I can continue to ignore the schoolwork XD .

[Canoerebel]

Daren, that's an encouraging word.  Thanks.

Chez was unable to send a turn last night due to work.  He is, by the way, the most reliable and courteous of opponents.  He's regular with turns, and when one won't be forthcoming he always gives notice.  That's much appreciated.  (I can think of another player or two that could benefit from some "courtesy" lessons from Steve.)

As for school, I had the same problem way back in the 1980s when cable television first came into vogue.  I was in college, and suddenly could watch just about any Atlanta Braves game.  If the Braves were playing San Diego starting at 10:00 p.m. and went into extra innings lasting until 2 a.m., there I'd sit watching the game even though I had a physics exam at 8:00 a.m.  Oh, the guilt I labored under!  What made it worse was that the Braves stunk it up in those days.

[DarenDF]

I'm actually from Georgia (though I don't live there anymore) but I have a few relatives that act that way about the braves [:D] . It also sounds nice of Chez to let you know when he can't get turns in.

[Canoerebel]

4/27/42
 
China:  The Siangtan army crosses the river and demolishes an iJ regiment.  Tomorrow, 5,000 Chinese AV will attack a single IJ division east of Kiefang.  A 2,400-AV army will reach Kienko in four or five days.
 
NoPac:  A small IJN carrier force (probably no more than CVEs and/or CS) is moving to the NE up the east side of the Kuriles.
 
SoPac:  Marine shore guns tear apart a few more enemy transports.  Japan outnumbers the Allies 500 AV to 137 AV, but didn't attack - probably to recover disruption.
 
DEI:  Remains quiet, though it obviously shouldn't be.  The next big CD force (Aussie heavy unit) will arrive at Oosthaven in no more than three days.  Sabang should fall to the enemy in two or three days.  UK brigade will arrive at Port Blair tomorrow or the next day under protection of two Hurricane units and a CA Pensacola-led TF.

[GreyJoy]

you're fading beyond....[:D]

[Canoerebel]

4/28/42
 
GreyJoy:  No way I can keep up with you!
 
China:  The Chinese blasted away 37th Division east of Kaifeng.  The division dropped from 480 AV to 8 AV during the attack.  I need to be careful now, lest my troops become to diluted and dispersed and thus subject to ambush.  The Chinese have blown through the initial ring of defenses, so now each step further requires dispatch of units to garrison and division of stacks to take various roads.  I'm trying to avoid that by keeping my troops concentrated.  Steve has pulled his stack out of Changsha.  He's pretty anxious about the situation around the Sian/Kaifeng/Sinyang triangle.
 
NoPac: Small IJN carrier force remains east of the Kuriles.
 
SoPac:  The Japanese have roughly a division equivalent at Pago Pago, but still haven't attacked.
 
DEI:  Cocos Island airfield goes to level one (and an RAF base force is on the way).  Bengkalen airfield goes to level six.  UK brigade has mostly unloaded at Port Blair, bringing the AV to 240.  Big Aussie CD to arrive at Oosthaven tomorrow.  CV Illustrious just arrived at Capetown and will steam to theater.  Sabang should fall tomorrow.  No signs of concerted enemy move on Java or Sumatra.  B-17Ds hit Balikpan port, damaging four already-damaged ships.
 
Burma:  My scouting unit reports that Prome is vacant.

[Canoerebel]

4/29/42 and 4/30/42
 
DEI:  Still quiet against all odds.  The Japanese do manage to take Sabang, which puts them into position to try to claim the eastern Bay of Bengal.  5th Royal Aussie CD force arrived at Oosthaven with sixteen 6" guns.  CV Hornet (with biplane Helldivers) is on the way to theater from Colombo.
 
Bay of Bengal:  A UK brigade and RAF base force has mostly landed at Port Blair, bringing the AV to 242 with three forts.  Steve will have to bring alot to take this base, but whether he'll be willing to do so after last month's smackdown is questionable.
 
Malaya/Burma:  USA 27th Div. arrives at Colombo tonight.  I could proceed with the invasion of Moulmein, but that would require my carriers.  Since I don't want to leave Java/Sumatra unguarded, the invasion likely will be timed for during or just after the Japanese move on Java/Sumatra.  Steve will undoubtedly concentrate all his aircraft for that mission, so a that point air opposition way up around Moulmein ought to be light.
 
Pago Pago:  The Japanese haven't attacked despite 550 AV to 137 AV edge.  Supply and disruption may be the problem.  The Allies have 21st USA RCT aboard transports already enroute from Pearl Harbor.  Also, cruisers have just arrived at Tahiti to give the Allies more weight in opposing enemy efforts to reinforce or resupply.

[Canoerebel]

5/1/42
 
DEI:  The Allies complete the latest unloading at Port Blair and Oosthaven.  No signs of enemy activity.  The Allies must withdraw four 25-plane P-40E squadrons in three days, but three new fighters squadrons will arrive at Oosthaven tonight or tomorrow night, totaling 75 aircraft.
 
Malaya/Burma:  An IJ unit has marched through the jungle towards the west coast, intent on picking up the two vacated Allied bases (Tavoy and name-escapes-me).  I could reinforce by air or fast transport, but better, I think, to allow a weak unit to reclaim this bases.  Then, when the times comes to invade, the Allies can recapture them quickly.  That's better than fighting for them now and arousing enemy awareness of their importance to future plans.  The Burma Army unit claimed a vacant Prome today, providing further evidence that Japan has a very week force here.
 
China:  The Chinese are awaiting reinforcements at Kienko, Ankang, and Psiangang (spelling?) before resuming attacks.  The Ankang and Psiang attacks will occur in no more than a few days and will easily succeed then.  Kienko I'm still not sure about.
 
NoPac:  The Japanese are giving alot of attention to bringing troops to Ominato for eventual counterinvasion.  Para's airfield went to level three.  I may try a 4EB raid on Shikuka's oil, though supplies to support the campaign are running low.
 
SoPac:  Still no IJ attack at Pago Pago.

[paullus99]

Been trying to suss out what your opponent may be thinking at the moment. His relative inactivity may signify that he is building up for a major offensive move - and if he has convinced himself that operations up in te Kuriles need to be dealt with post-haste (perhaps thinking that you have further operations planned or massive resources committed up there), he may counter-invade & perhaps make a move towards Dutch Harbor as well.

Of course, if he does so & even commits the KB in support - you are free to move against Malaysia at your leisure under the cover of your own carrier fleet.

The alternative is that he is preparing for a mass-move against Java & Sumatra - but the fact that he is waiting so long to get going means that each day makes the attach that much more expensive and ultimately unlikely to succeed (given the fact he needs to keep one eye on China & half of the other in the Kuriles).

I suspect his lack of Activity at Pago-Pago means he realized that he's "gone down the rabbit hole" there & is sitting at the end of a long logistical string with nothing really to show for it (since you never commited your carriers in the region). You can handle that area with LBA & surface forces, as long as the KB is elsewhere - and once you start getting CVEs & CVLs, you can dedicate your own small "mini-allied KB" to raid his supply lines & eventually starve those troops out.

He's facing too many crises at the moment, with too few resources to go around to deal with any of them effectively - and even dealing with them in the wrong order just puts him further and further behind. Looking at the map, he should be prepared to pull back in China to extend your supply lines & wait until supply problems force you to retreat back to your MLR anyway. Moves into the Kuriles should be swift and overpowering - taking back those bases in the shortest period of time by generating the largest amount of violence (with LBA & home-island reinforcements). Pago-Pago is a sink-hole & should either be abandoned - and the troops used to reinforce positions in the Solomons (and work should already be in progress to make the Gilberts an expensive proposition).

And lastly (though firstly here), he should decend on your Sumatran position with the maximum force available - troops, surface and air assets, and LBA, with the idea of cutting off any further reinforcements or supply. But, this is a very delicate proposition, and given what he's lost so far in other operations, he's lost the "slack" or the ability to suffer necessary losses to reach his objectives. He has lost the "fat" and now he's going to be loosing vitals, which will prevent his success in the future.

Just my thoughts.

[Canoerebel]

5/2/42
 
Paullus99:  Your analysis seems right to me.  I've been getting lots of SigInt of Japanese troops bound for Ominato and Nagoya, which I think are his counterinvasion forces.  There's plenty of enemy shipping and aircraft in the Kuriles, now.  And the fact that Paramushiro just went to level three airfield must have bothered him, as he's been trying to bomb the base to halt such building.  He apparently doesn't realize that the Kuriles are "paper tigers" and little more, now, so the longer he delays the better.
 
SoPac:  Tanks and infantry are on the way to reinforce Pago Pago, though what the situation will be like in ten days is up for debate.  38th USA Div., Southwest HQ, just arrived at San Fran.  She'll prep for Tarawa and join the rest of the Tarawa-invasion troops at San Diego.  All the transports are in place.  It might be possible for this invasion to depart CONUS within the week.  Ideally, I'd like to time this to a point when Steve's attention is elsewhere (Kuriles and/or DEI), but I have a feeling that by the time the invasion can near Tarawa, things will be breaking loose somewhere.
 
DEI:  No apparent enemy moves imminent.  Oosthaven airfield will reach level eight in a few days.  Palembang forts are at 5.22 and increasing .02 per day.
 
China:  The Allies will try three nudges tomorrow, with reinforcements on the way to all three places in case the nudges aren't sufficient.

[Canoerebel]

5/3/42
 
CenPac:  BB Oklahoma was torpedoed by a sub and went under.  She was the last of the Pearl Harbor victims and was midway between Pearl and San Fran when disaster struck.
 
NoPac:  Several enemy subs are parked on the "bombardment route" for the BB Warspite and Colorado bombardment runs vs. Amchitka.
 
SoPac:  Political points will be difficult to come by, as usual, for the restricted units prepping for Tarawa.  A Marine RCT and 38th Division are unrestricted, but I should be able to buy one more RCT, several artillery units, and an armored unit.  These troops will be sent to Pearl via strategic mode, unload, and then re-load combat.  I'd like them to be ready when the Japanese reveal their carriers against NoPac or the DEI.  Further south, no IJ attack at Pago Pago.  The Allied reinforcement TFs are making good time with the first to arrive at Christmas Island in about two days.
 
DEI:  The quiet continues.  There is s small Japanese TF about to transit the northern Java Sea.  Steve does this from time to time, apparently to test defenses, which I usually stand down against "small fry."  Oosthaven airfield went to level eight.  I have to withdraw 75 fighters in two days, but 75 reinforcements just arrived at Oosthaven.
 
China:  The Allies are close to taking Psiangtang, south of Changsha.  A large stack of reinforcements may or may not be needed, but are just a day or two away.  Once the Allies take this base, the army may move further east, but sooner or later the target is Kukong, where the Allies will soon have 2900 AV facing about 900 IJ AV including the fresh 22nd Division.  Up north, the Allies will have a huge stack at Anyang (near Chengchow and Loyang) in a few days, allowing them to blow through that defense.  The Allies will try a probing deliberate attack at Singyan tomorrow, with some 2,500 AV vs. two enemy units of unknown strength.  So there are four hot spots for Japan to deal with at present.

[Canoerebel]

5/4/42
 
China:  The Chinese blow out a weak unit a hex from Singyang, but will now back up to deal with a unit trying to cut the road to Nanyang.  Up at Anyang, the Chinese stack will be in position to attack tomorrow and will greatly outnumber the Japanese stack. Another Chinese stack will attack at Psiangyang (near Changsha) tomorrow and likewise will prevail.  I haven't attacked at Kukong yet as I'm awaiting arrival of another unit.
 
NoPac:  Quiet.
 
SoPac:  Still no IJ attack at Pago Pago.
 
Luzon:  SigInt that 4th Div. is still at Bataan.  Why?
 
DEI: Quiet here, too.  The American CD unit has arrived on map and will reach Benkolen in about six days.  That's the last of the big coastal defense forces.  Otherwise, the DEI remains quiet.

[Canoerebel]

In an email yesterday, Chez Da Jez said he doesn't know what to do about Palembang.  Then, in a post in Cribtop's AAR, he noted that Palembang has 55 units and that the Allies have 300 fighters based there and at Oosthaven.  Is this "perplexitiy" genuine or part of a maskirovka?
 
I think it's genuine, based upon intuition derived from the familiarity with Steve's style that has developed over the game.  Steve's also a straight shooter that doesn't seem to enjoy misinformation even in a gaming way.  If he's truly perplexed, that makes predicting what he's going to do next tough to do.  He might put off dealing with Sumatra as long as possible, instead focusing on the troublesome situations in NoPac, China, and (to a lesser extent) Pago Pago.
 
If it is part of a maskirovka, the only "new" target I can envision him coming for is north New Zealand.  Other possibilities might be Hawaii or the Aleutians, but I think they are less likely.  He certainly has plenty of infantry divisions to commit to a massive operation, though committing the ships, men and time needed for a major undertaking will really hurt him in the DEI.  In the first place, as soon as the KB shows up somewhere like SoPac or NoPac, the Allies are ready to move on Malaya/Burma.  The Allies will also be ready to move on Tarawa from Pearl Harbor commencing in about 15 days.
 
If Steve goes anywhere but Sumatra, the Allies will be ready to go on the offensive in those two areas.  If he does bite the bullet to focus on Sumatra, then the Allies will immediately proceed with the Tarawa invasion (and possibly Malaya, depending on a more complicated evaluation of risks and opportunities).

[Canoerebel]

5/5/42
 
DEI:  The quiet continues - no appearance of imminent Japanese invasions - so here's a look at the three strongpoints of Fortress Sumatra;
 
Palembang:  1533 AV, 5.28 forts, 6.87 airfield, 191k supply; one CD unit (276 US Arty with eight 155mm guns).
 
Oosthaven:  1529 AV, 4.51 forts; 8.05 airfield; 30k supply; six CD uinits:  Tarakan (ten 120mm and eleven 75mm); 5th Aussie (sixteen 6"); 7th Aussie (four 6"); 1st Indian (eight 6"); 2nd Indian (eight 6"); Sarawak (two 6").
 
Benkolen:  634 AV, 3.88 forts; 6.20 airfield; 10k supply; two CD units with one more on the way:  Medan (four 150mm and six 75mm) and C/D Aussie Heavy Reg't (five 155mm).  An American coastal arty unit will arrive in about a week.
 
Oosthaven is the strongpoint, but here's how the Allies handle a major landing at any of these three locations:
 
Palembang:  With terrain effects, forts, and prep bonus, Allied adjusted AV will be well in excess of 4,500 AV.  That means there's no way the enemy can bring enough to land here and take it short term.  If the enemy were to land here, the Allies would employ massed air attacks and would strongly reinforce using units no longer needed to defend other beaches.  Within a week, the Allied AV would rise to at least 2,500 yielding an adjusted AV of something more than 7,500.
 
Oosthaven:  With 1500 AV behind four forts but poor defensive terrain, the adjusted AV would not be much more than 1500.  This means the Allies have to maul the troops while landing.  The abundance of CD guns will help as will Allied air power.  The Allies would almost certainly commit the weight of their combat ships, at least if the invasion were to take place in the near term.  If, on the other hand, the enemy takes western Java, builds the airfields at Batavia and Merak large, and impose a titanic air and naval air presence in the immediate area, the Allies would have to weight options carefully.  But it will take weeks or months for Japan to orchestrate these conditions - precious time that Japan doesn't have.  However, you can see why the Allies will look for a chance to pounce on an invasion of Java by employing carriers and combat TFs under favorable conditions.
 
Benkolen:  With just 650 AV behind three forts on rough terrain, this base might seem the most desirable to Japan.  The adjusted AV of perhaps 2,000 is manageable, but this is the base most exposed to interdiction by Allied carriers and combat ships, and I would commit them in a major way if I could destroy or maul the enemy invasion at or before the beaches.
 
Counterinvasion(s):  If the Japanese come for Java or Sumatra in the next month to six weeks, the Allies are in position to implement counterinvasions of Malaya/Burma and the Gilbert Islands.  These operations are important in their own right, but the primary purpose is to disorient Steve just when he's trying to focus on critical operations in the DEI.
 
NoPac:  Intel and patrols indicate that Japan is preparing for a massive counterinvasion of Paramushiro and Onnekotan.  The Allies have enough units here to give the impression "danger," but this impression is misleading.  The Allies are hoping Japan will unleash a tiger up here finding only a squirrel as quarry.
 
China:  The Chiense just blew through two depleted IJ divisions (39 and 34) and one brigade at Psiangtang, near Changsha.  This Chinese army will now proceed towards Kukong to help with the meeting engagement that is developing there.  Meanwhile, much of the Changsha garrison will sally forth to deal with those to depleted IJA divisions.  Up at Anyang, a large Chinese army will attack tomorrow and should easily take that base.  The Chinese are remaining "within themselves" - i.e., not going too far and getting spread out, but instead focusing on demolishing enemy units.  The overall situation in China clearly has Steve's attention.  He's sending in reinforcements, which presumably means he won't have quite as many troops available to deal with the Pacific and DEI.
 
Burma:  Very interesting situation in Burma.  Allies suspicions that Burma is weakly defended are correct.  The probing Burma Army unit moving southeast from Prome has found just one enemy unit at Rangoon.  From SigInt, we expect that unit is 15th Army HQ.  Steve will reinforce, but he doesn't have much in Burma, meaning an Allied invasion could give him fits.  The Allies have 27h USA Division and two UK brigades forming the core of the invasion force.  They are at Colombo awaiting the opporunity.

[paullus99]

You almost need to figure out a way to sucker him into invading - because there are so many ripe opportunities right now (China, Burma, CenPac). If he rushes a landing somewhere - anyone of the beaches is fine, you can freely proceed with all or any combination of operations you currently have plans.

[Cribtop]

FWIW, I think Chez' post in my AAR is a sign of true perplexity. I had just referenced your AAR and Sumatra and you and others chimed in with how Sumatra is suddenly a scary word for JFBs. It seems to me Chez is hurting on multiple fronts and is choosing to address the Kuriles first. He doesn't seem to realize that Java is there for the taking and that he needs the western Java bases to support Sumatra. My suggestion is to hold a Malaya/Burma counter invasion as the trump card, but to initiate the Tarawa op as soon after he commits big to the Kuriles as possible. Why? Chez seems to react to negative events on other fronts by further delaying taking action on the Sumatran "barking dog" (little lawyer phrase there that I trust you get, Dan). You may not have the PPs for my suggestion, but if you do...

[Canoerebel]

I have the PPs for the Tarawa invasion - 38th Division and a Marine RCT are ready to go, and I can afford the tank unit and two Army RCT that are currently restricted.  That should be enough, I would think.  I'll have plenty of AP, which means quicky unloading, and two BBs, but I won't have any air cover.
 
If I can get enough PPs, I'll also try to buy the troops slated for Baker Island.