Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

Right.  I think the Japanese invasion of Sumatra will be "good theater" for weeks.  Current guess is that the tater chips will hit the fan in July and August 1942.
 
Man, I really need to whittle down the Japanese fleet in the meantime.  The fleet operating around Fiji and Samoa is the most vulnerable, though Steve may withdraw it.  CV Wasp arrives in five days.  If Steve abandons Pago Pago, she'll instead move to either the Tarawa area (where Japanese response can be expected eventually) or possibly to NoPac (unless Steve liquidates that area in the next few weeks).

[Nemo121]

Most of the time when we see an even fight on the forums it isn't because two brilliant players are evenly matched but simply because both play a fairly standard, uninspired game.

It might be shorter but I'd far rather see an interesting, short game which showcased good play than a 5 year long game which showed no inspiration, coup d'oeuil or strategic insight. YMMV of course.

[vettim89]

On the other hand, if the Allies win the Battle of Eastern Sumatra, then the game is essentially over. It might still take a long time to finish off Japan, but the issue would have been emphatically decided long before. In that event, nobody will be reading this AAR, but I'll still be merrily typing away.

I have seen you and others reiterate this statement and I think you are wrong. You win the battle of Eastern Sumatra and the game is over. The Japanese Economy will come crashing down on itself in six months of less. The Japanese have a stockpile of fuel at the start of the game. While they do have some oil/refinery centers up north, it is not anywhere near enough to run the economy let alone fuel the fleet. The theory is that the Japan player uses his stockpile to capture Tarakan, Miri, Brunei, Balikpapan, Soerobaja, and most importantly Palembang. So you win the battle of Eastern Sumatra not only do you deny your opponent the oil/refinery centers located there but you can immediately put pressure on the remaining centers via blockade and/or Strategic Bombing.

In AE, the entire Japnese economy is wrapped around one simple fact - every HI point requires a fuel point be expened to get it. So Palembang alone will run 900 HI factories (assuming full capability). WIth limited fuel stocks, your opponent will either be able to move his fleet or build airframes and engines. This is not a game changer, it is a game ender.

[Canoerebel]

Vettim, if your analysis is correct, Steve has a narrowing window in which to strike.  If the Allies maintain carrier parity and still have operational airfields at Oosthaven, Benkolen, and Palembang, eventually the initiative will begin to change.  At some point, perhaps as early as September, the Allies should be able to bring in much greater ground reinforcements, which should eliminate any chance for Japan to conquer eastern Sumatra.
 
A few days ago, the Allies shifted 20th Indian Division from Madras to Cochin on India's southwest coast (a more secure port).  Troop transports are on the way.  20th Div. is prepping for Oosthaven.  I need 1100 political points to buy it and have but 600 at the moment.  As always, I have lots of competing PP needs, but there's a good chance 20th Div. will go to Sumatra.  Also, another Aussie CD unit (this one from Portlant) is en route to Perth and will go to Sumatra.

[Canoerebel]

Back in my school and college days, I remember there was a class of student who would take a test and predict, "I did terrible!"  Without fail, that student would get an A. 

I never understood them, because I could usually predict accurately how I did.  If I said I did "okay," I got a B.  If I thought I hit it out of the park, I usually got an A.

I hope you won't mind me saying here (in the semi-privacy of my own AAR) that the Grand Master discussion on the main page is making me a bit uncomfortable.  I am very flattered to be included in the list of good players.  I do think I'm a decent player and getting better.  In this game, for instance, I have really come to see the entire map and all its opportunities and all the resources available to the Allied player much better. 

I do want to get better, and there is certainly room for growth, but I sincerely doubt I'll ever progress into what would be the top tier of players.  In the first place, I am not a deep reader of military science.  Thus, Nemo's Lawn Chairian principles often fly right over my head.  Second, I do not dig deeply into game code and data.  Altitude bands and algorithms and detailed analysis of ASW ratings and a crew's nighttime experience level is more detail than I care to delve into.  Thus, I tend to play a little by the seat of my pants - "This seems like a good idea and I believe I can do it" without looking at all the minutae that a truly adept player might take into consideration.

Mind you, as I go further into the game I may gradually develop a desire to utilize information of this sort.  I had to with pilot training and I spend much more time now attending to assigning higher quality leaders to my units.  So I may delve more into nitty-gritty, but I doubt I ever do so on the level of the true gurus - the men who sit at the top of the mountain dispensing advice (not because they are self-appointed, but because the community recognizes them as truly gifted).

I suspect I'll always be satisfied playing at the B+ or A- levels. For now, I need to go find my copy of the Lawn Chair Principles to see if I can figure out a way to sneak up and goose Nemo.  One of these days I'm going to take him on.

[Andav]

CR,

There are a couple of reasons why I think you deserve to be mentioned in the top tier players.

The first is your ability to develop a plan and implement it based on your over all goals in the game and not necessarily the actions of your opponent. Your defense of Sumatra in this game is something a lot of players talk about and think about and in the end just do not have the guts to try to implement. You formed a strategy and implemented the plan. Your opponents plodding pace certainly helped make this plan a reality but committing to it and making it happen was all you. You also developed the strategy to support your ultimate goal. Invading Burma. The Kuruls (or however you spell it) invasion in the north. Pago Pagos defense. The Tarawa invasion. All of these supporting operations served to make your main operation work and set you up for operations two and three years down the road. This is something the average player (including myself) has trouble grasping.

The second reason is people tend to do what you have do in the past. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Case in point, using the US CVs to counter an invasion of Java. I am not sure if you are the first one to do this but you were the first one who I saw do this (I think in a WitP AAR). I then had it done to me in an AE game and have seen others setup this same scenario. Most people will hide the Allied CVs until late 42 or even into 1943. Not only does it make for a boring game, it removed a very powerful asset from the Allies tool belt. We all know more Allied players will try Fortress Palembang as well in the future.

Also, you are not alone when it comes to the things Nemo says going over your head. He is the guy you want back at the Pentagon devising grand strategy. You are the type of guy I would want in the field putting it all into place.

Wa

[Canoerebel]

Have you ever seen a detection level like this? 100/9!

Before I received this turn from Steve, I had already decided to withdraw my most important shipping (AP and AK) from the Tarawa region. He's had plenty of time to orchestrate a response from Rabaul, Truk or Kwajalein by now, so I want to pull my ships back, reorganize, and get some of the empties back to Pearl Harbor.

When I saw this detection level, that reinforced my worries over exposure to the enemy. It isnt' carrier. It may even be a bug. But I'm taking it as a sign to be careful.

[vettim89]

Your modesty serves you well, Dan. I think where you excel is in your ability to evaluate the situation in terms of ALL the possibilites available to you. Where most of us fall short is that we evaluate most or maybe only a portion of the possibilities. Your mind is free enough to not limit yourself to historical realities nor even perceived in game realities. Most people naturally live in a place that is comfortable for us. We are governed not only by the true risks we face but by the perceived risk as well. You have the rare ability to think outside of the box. To put it into Nemo terms: you get inside your opponents' OODA cycles and mess them up. The difference between you and Nemo is you do it intuitively while he does it in a more caculated, logical manner

Both Ike and Patton were excellant generals. That said both of them would have been lousy at the other's job. Patton runnig SHEAF would have been a disaster, but Ike running 3rd Army's offensive across France would likely not have yielded the huge territorial gains and POW numbers. My point: saying you're no Nemo is no different than Patton saying "I'm no Ike". (although we all know the arrogant SOB thought he was better than Ike anyway)

[Canoerebel]

6/6/42
 
Tarawa:  A battalion of 32nd Div. seized Ocean Island, which was vacant.  Two good AK carryiny another battalion - roughly 50 AV - will hoof it over to Nauru Island on the chance that it too is vacant.  If the Japanese intercept those two ships, so be it.  I've also reconstituted the main Allied transport TFs at Tarawa - those carrying parts of 8th Marines, 9th Marines, and the base force shall remain at Tarawa to unload, covered by the combat TF.  The remaining TFs to begin retiring to Palmyra and eventually Pearl Harbor.  Some suppy ships will remain nearby to make runs in to Tarawa and associated islands as opportunities present.  Also, a USA RCT is inbound and 100% prepped for Ocean.  Eventually, I will try to extract the 32nd Div. battalions from Ocean and Nauru to reform the full division, which may be posted at Christmas or Pearl to prep for the next really big target, which I haven't yet identified.  The Allies have more units on the way or in the queue for these islands and others in the vicinity.  Also, Mili looks vacant and the Allies have a good force 100% prepped back at Pearl (though Steve is likely to attend to his reduced perimeter now).  So things are shaping up here.
 
SoPac:  A USA RCT is inbound to Pago Pago, perhaps six days out, to be covered by the Pensacola/San Fran TF.
 
NoPac:  No move yet on the Allies bases in the Kuriles.  Pennsylvania is about half way from San Fran to Dutch Harbor.
 
Burma:  Several of the big infantry units will depart Pegu tonight and should make ti Mandalay tomorrow.
 
Bay of Bengal:  KB remains posted at Sabang with lots of IJ combat and transport TFs in the Makassar Straits and up around Tavoy.  The Allied carriers are southeast of Ceylon.  I would think any IJ move on Port Blair would be so heavily guarded that it wouldn't be worth messing with.  So, I've toyed with just sending the Allied carriers back to their stations south of Sumatra.  But the thought that a major enemy move on Port Blair might get sloppy, allowing a strike against a vulnerable portion, keeps me from pulling the trigger.
 
DEI:  Oosthaven airfield just went to level nine, giving it the ability to host unlimited squadrons.  This is important, especially since Singapore's airfield increased to nine just a few days ago.  Palembang forts are at 6.33 and on schedule to reach level seven in 22 days.  Otherwise it is quiet in the DEI as so much of the IJ navy is in the Bay of Bengal.  The Allies have to withdraw alot of fighter squadrons in about a month, so I've been working on reinforcements - two squadrons inbound from Oz will reach Oosthaven in about four days.  A P-40E squadron from Aden will arrive in about ten days.  And the only P-38E squadron in theater can reach eastern Sumatra from its current position at Colombo.  But I'll need more than that.
 
PDU Off:  We are playing with PDU off, meaning both sides are limited in the ability to upgrade and downgrade squadrons (in fact, you can't do the latter to gain more planes for your pools).  This means we're both still using alot of inferior aircraft.  I'm still flying biplane Helldivers and early prototype Wildcats.
 

[Paladin1dcs]

I have to admit that I'm coming into the thread late, but the brain storming between CR and Nemo has made me reevaluate my own views on several portions of the game.  I'm thoroughly enjoying this AAR, so great work CR!

[Miller]

I have just seen your comment that you are playing with PDU off. This partly explains Chez's inability to take the game back to you.

To be honest I would never even for one second consider playing as the Japs with PDU off. Sure it would make for a more historic game, but it also means they have a 1% chance of winning as opposed to perhaps 5% with PDU on (assuming both players are of equal ability).

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Your modesty serves you well, Dan. I think where you excel is in your ability to evaluate the situation in terms of ALL the possibilites available to you. Where most of us fall short is that we evaluate most or maybe only a portion of the possibilities. Your mind is free enough to not limit yourself to historical realities nor even perceived in game realities. Most people naturally live in a place that is comfortable for us. We are governed not only by the true risks we face but by the perceived risk as well. You have the rare ability to think outside of the box. To put it into Nemo terms: you get inside your opponents' OODA cycles and mess them up. The difference between you and Nemo is you do it intuitively while he does it in a more caculated, logical manner

Both Ike and Patton were excellant generals. That said both of them would have been lousy at the other's job. Patton runnig SHEAF would have been a disaster, but Ike running 3rd Army's offensive across France would likely not have yielded the huge territorial gains and POW numbers. My point: saying you're no Nemo is no different than Patton saying "I'm no Ike". (although we all know the arrogant SOB thought he was better than Ike anyway)

My .02 is that you have grown magnificently as a player and, though there has been a lot of 'help' within this AAR, you have achieved something almost of unheard of at this point in the war. Your audacity and ability to see all the pieces and then use them has to be commended.

[ny59giants]

I think I would send the 20th Indian Division to Burma. I would steadily build up pressure on that front.

[Canoerebel]

6/7/42
 
Abbreviated report due to only getting the combat replay file (Steve forgot to press the "end turn" button for the turn file, so I probably won't get to issue orders until tomorrow morning).

Tarawa:  The Allies take vacant Nauru Island, thus completing the invasion portion of the Tarawa operation.  Short-term priorities:  (1) retrieve the high-value AP and AK; (2) attend to supply and base-building; (3) bring in garrison troops.  Long-term priorities:  (1) consider moving on Mili if it seems to remain vacant, and (2) evaluate next move.

Next Move in Cen/So Pac:  After mulling this over awhile, I'm going to take a careful look at the western Solomons - possibly prepping 32nd Div. for Shortlands, Buka, Kaeving, or someplace in that area.  Such a move would sever Japan's link to the only region where it has accomplished anything - New Caledonia, Fiji, etc - so my guess is Steve would consider such a move a crisis.  He'll probably prepare sufficiently to discourage me from venturing into the Solomons, but if he does the Allies can look elsewhere.  The Allies have also begun prepping troops in Hawaii (and also San Diego) for Marcus and Wake.

DEI:  A few air battles involving B-17s hitting an airfield east of Batavia and a small Netty raid on an xAKL at Batavia. The Allies come out on top of both.  Yesterday, the Allies crated two P-40E squadrons at Ceylon for delivery to Sumatra.

Bay of Bengal:  The combat replay didn't show any big moves by the KB nor any imminent invasion of Port Blair.

Burma:  Roughly 75% of the Allied strength at Pegu (including 27th Div.) departed for western Burma. As for NYGiants suggestion to move 20th Indian Div. to Burma, I thought that over a long time.  The Allies won't have a good supply situation in Burma, meaning for now they will be on the defensive mainly.  Also, Japan can take control if enough troops are sent.  A defense anchored around 27th Div. is probably enough to force Japan to bring a heck of alot or to dissuade Japan from doing anything major until after a decision in Sumatra.

Reinforcing:  So, if I send 20th Ind. Div. anywhere it would probably be Sumatra.  I would like to bolster Benkolen's AV, currently about 650, to prevent Japan from taking it relatively easily.  With about 900 AV at Benkolen and at least 1,600 each at Oosthaven and Palembang, Japan's initial landing at any of these bases should mire down against defensive AVs augmented by forts and supported by plenty of air and combat ships. 

Land Campaign:  What if Steve says "the heck with it" and marches a ten-division army over the yellow roads from western Sumatra?  If he landed boukoup supply at Merak and Sabang, could it float through the jungles to supply the army?  I think this is possible, but there's not a heck of alot I can do about it.  Such a march would, however, be pretty slow and subject to harrassment raids by B-17s.

[paullus99]

If he tries a land campaign, he still has to land the troops & supplies in an area that you should be able to hamper or perhaps even severely curtail those operations with your carriers - plus he'd be forced to keep the KB in the area just to keep you off of those supply lines - either way, it ties down his mobile force (and raises the possibility that he will make a mistake).

If you are able to start collecting your own mini-carrier force, perhaps based around Wasp to start, you could do some serious damage to his supply lines out in the Pacific, absent any real carrier presence by him (and if he detaches a carrier or two to try to deal with it, all the better).

[Canoerebel]

I doubt I can really interfere with a campaign built on landing troops and supply through Merak and other bases well within his LBA-umbrella.

If the Japanese moved down the coastal road from Sibolga towards Padang and Benkolen, I wonder how effective big bombardment runs might be against them? 

The Allies will have alot of things going on (or in development) to continue putting pressure on Japan elsewhere - right now that's Pago Pago, the Tarawa vicinity, possibly Marcus and Wake, and (perhaps most importantly) an effort to reinforce and re-supply the two bases in the Kuriles if Japan dallies long enough in attending to those two.  China, too, will continue to serve as a battlefield.

Right now, Japan has six cruisers and at least on BB (Hiei) far from the DEI - that's a significant reduction in force available in the DEI.

[vettim89]

It would take a VERY long time to march to Palembang from Sabang. Trying to get supplies to flow that distance is going to be tricky also. It could be done but I think it falls into the too little too late category. All that force in SoPac is a double bonus for you. Besides the fact that they are not in the DEI, they are burning fuel.

[Cribtop]

I've seen the 100/9 type detection levels. I remember from the manual that the first number is a daily DL that degrades pretty quickly, especially for subs. The second number degrades more slowly and is a longer term DL. The first number can spike to 100 if there is some sort of same hex contact in my experience. For example, invading a base hex or running into an enemy TF.

As for cutting off the SOPAC salient, I like that idea. If the upper Solomons is too well defended, Tulagi or Ndeni would provide similar advantages.

[Canoerebel]

6/7/42 continued
 
Just got the turn file this morning, so I'm completing some of the thoughts for the June 7 entry.
 
Tarawa:  A RCT 100% prepped for Ocean Island is just seven days out, but the 32nd Div. battalion there is taking all the room (5k of the 6k capacity).  I'd love to extract the battalion and replace it with the RCT, but loading at a small and exposed forward base can be tricky and take forever.  So...do I try it, or do I diver the 100% prepped unit to someplace else - like vacant Tabituea or Abemama?  That's probably what I will do.
 
Baker Island:  Enemy patrols are active out of Baker Island for the first time.  I get the feeling, both from the map and from some of Steve's comments, that he considers Tarawa a major situation that must be dealt with (were I him, I'd simply ignore it until I had more important theaters under control, then I'd come and overwhelm the Gilberts if I thought it was really necessary).  Valuable Allied transports are retreating from the area in good order, with mainly low-value supply xAKs remaining to off-load, covered by the Warspite/Colorado TF at Tarawa.
 
SoPac:  The reinforcing RCT is just two or three days away from Pago Pago now.  No sign of enemy shipping.  We'll see if Steve has put PP on the back burner now that there's a crisis in the Gilberts.
 
DEI:  Quiet.
 
SEAC:  No invasion of Port Blair or moves by the KB imminent.  27th USA Div. moved from Pegu to Mandalay, so she's safely extracted from any threat of isolation.

[paullus99]

Wow - once again he is putting critical operations on the backburner (potentially) to deal with this new crisis. He may be wondering if you pulled your carriers from the Indian Ocean to support moves in the Pacific now - leads me to recommend sending Wasp to Tarawa, if he doesn't send the KB (perhaps Hiyo or Junyo, if they are available at this point). You could really make a mess of any attempts at counter-landings if he doesn't throw more support that way.