MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Joseignacio]

I didn't check carefully the name of the town, I mistook Tolouse with Bordeaux, because of this expression: "Toulouse is a very, very difficult hex to capture by the Axis. " My mistake. I wouldn't normally put units there.

I defended Bordeaux with one only stack with suppport from the fleet, plus air support (once France surrenders there is no limit of units committed) the stack included an AA unit. This forced the german to lead south and lose several impulses. My idea was to evacuate if he came with enough units, but in fact in this case I was able to make damage.

After that, when things became dangerous simply evacuated.

tm.asp?m=2857298&mpage=2?

Here they were leading south.



At the beginning of the game I had enough units (re-using them, including egyptian territorials) to garrison Greece and build in India, even though my firs priorities were CVs and then TRSs and that I never stopped producing some planes and at least one more pilot than planes, to use the planes at the pool.

Finally there was sealion but it was in the last turn, when everybody did risky moves because the game was ending, and I sent everything to Egypt, except what I has in the fortress I made out of India.

[Orm]

And here is a picture on how the south part of France looks like in MWIF.

[Joseignacio]

Yes, although I appreeciated Composer's support I was afraid it would be like that.

Being from Bilbao, I wshould know better... (I knew but I didn't think too much about the location, because I thought he was writing about Bordeaux.

[Red Prince]

Well, you wanted the CW to be more aggressive with its bombers, and I followed your advice. Air-to-Air combat is where I usually fear for the CW, but this one came out okay:

[Red Prince]

Unfortunately for the CW, Germany decided to use its Heavy AA and reduced the CW Tactical Factors by 2, leading to a failed mission (except that the AA and FTR are both now disorganized):

[Red Prince]

In China, the weather helped, but it also hurt the Chinese effort to retreat into the mountains. In the North, Fine weather allowed things to be orderly, but in the South, HQ-I Chiang was forced to move into Hengyang last impulse, which means that the Rain allowed only the 5-3 INF to move without becoming disorganized. The CAV could also have moved, but it would have meant breaking the supply chain, which is already weak and vulnerable.

[Red Prince]

After some debate, this is how I chose to reinforce Belgium. I couldn't leave Lille empty, because if the Germans decided to use an O-chit early, then they could still break through the hex west of Brussels, and drive right into Lille unhindered. That would be very bad.

Except, I just now realized that there are no German HQ to use the O-chit. Oh, well. Even as it is, they could make a lucky attack around 3:1 and make the same Breakthrough, so I still think it was a wise move.

[Red Prince]

And the only attack, on Teheran:

Attack on Teheran: Assault, Roll = 5 = */2S

[Red Prince]

The turn didn't end (roll of 3 with only 10% chance), and the weather is not terrible, as you can see.

Germany and Japan will be taking Land Actions, and Italy will take a Combined, in order to finally move a few Corps into position to begin the long and painful attack on Greece. The DOW will probably come early in N/D '39, since it's going to take several turns to accomplish, anyway, and I hope to keep the CW busy elsewhere, too.

Italy will also manage to take the capitols of Anglo-Egyptian Sudan and Kenya. From the Italian point of view, I'm happy with the near eradication of the French fleet, but I don't like being at war with the CW this early.

I usually prefer to wait until M/A '40 if the CW plays along . . . which in my last game it did because it wanted to help the US pass the 2 key Options: Gear Up Production, and Pass War Appropriations as early as possible.

Without surprise attacks, it's going to be hard to get units into any of the Middle-East nations, and although my naval setup was lacking for the CW, I'm much more prepared to remedy the gear limit mistakes I made before, so I don't think Germany can afford to wait as long as before to eliminate France, one way or the other. That means I won't have the luxury of sending as much help into Greece quite as early.

However, the Bessarabia move that will happen in J/F '40 may alter the dynamics a little bit. Similarly, in the last game, the CW got at least one extry TRS out of its aligned minors which it didn't get this time.

Weather over the winter will be key, as will the German willingness to lose units of value. The weather for impulse #9:

[Red Prince]

And now, with the Axis ready to go again, I did a little of this and a little of that (mostly that just means I railed a few units in Germany and sailed the Italian TRS into the Italian Coast). In the end, I made two attacks, one extremely risky:

And the results:

Attack on hex [52, 31]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .726 (No); Roll = 5+2 = 7 = -/R (disorganized)
Germany retreats MOT to Lille, ART and INF SE of Lille
Attack on Chengchow: Assault, Fractional Odds .509 (No); Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)

So, the risky attack sort of paid off. Germany needs to wait for reinforcements to finish crossing from the Polish border anyway, and I doubt there will be all that many more impulses this turn, so I don't mind the results much. I'd have loved keeping them organized to try to kick out more peacekeepers, but as the French say (until we stomp them into submission): c'est la vie.

[Red Prince]

Other end-of-impulse items:

Germany finally got its Stukas and another fighter to the front lines (Brussels), and Japan sent its weakling fighters on thier way back toward Japan, so that if they get another impulse to rebase one more time, they can finish the trip and come off the map during the next reinforcement phase. (Can't figure out why I didn't scrap these 3-Factor fighters in the first place [>:] )

But guess what, everyone . . . the turn just ended! A roll of 3 at 30% chance to end, moving the Initiative 1 step toward the Allies.

I'll give you the full End-of-Turn rundown when I'm finished with the details, but for now, these are the units that were destroyed in S/O '39.

[Red Prince]

End of Turn Roll: 3 (30%)
7 Total Impulses, +1 Allied Initiative

No Partisans

Germany placed 2 markers on Offense (2456 [4], 2655 [4])
USSR placed 1 marker on Defense (876 [1])
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (3003 [5])
USA chooses Relocate Fleet to Pearl Harbor (Ja-6); USE-3 (1 chit moved, 3 of 5 [4])
USA chooses Occupy Greenland and Iceland (Ge/It-9); USE-4 (1 chit moved, 2 of 4 [3])
----------
These were the choices I had for US Entry Options:

[Red Prince]

And here's how things looked after choosing those 2 options:

Ge/It Entry: 19
Ge/It Tension: 7
Chance of DOW: None
Ja Entry: 21
Ja Tension: 8
Chance of DOW: None

[Red Prince]

As in the last game, there was a lot of aggressive Axis play, but there were also a good number of high chits drawn. I know there are going to be questions about how this reflects on the current system, but 2 games does not make a really good-sized pool to make any real comparisons. It's going to take hundreds of games to determine if there truly is any "bias" in the program or not.

I've got to sort through some details, and it's going to take some time. I really wasn't expecting the turn to end yet, and while I could have changed the fact, there really isn't any point in it, is there? Let the chips fall where they may. It just means I have to do some planning and checking I wasn't expecting to do yet. This probably means it'll be tomorrow sometime that the rest of the End-of-Turn stuff gets posted . . .

. . . so, in the meantime, feel free to suggest build strategies, and I'll look through them for ideas.
-----
Edit: Unless I've miscalculated, the available BP are as follows:

Germany: 18
Italy: 3
Japan: 11

China: 4
CW: 13
France: 4
USA: 11
USSR: 8

[Red Prince]

I actually managed to get through the end of the turn without much trouble at all. I thought I was going to be too tired to think about it, but it turned out to be less to deal with than I expected, mostly because it was just the first turn of the game, but also because I forgot I hadn't yet chosen the Entry Options that would let me set up Trade Agreements that I had planned.

Anyway, before I reveal what I did, I'm still interested in hearing what you think I should have done (hoping I anticipated things pretty well). I do have a pretty map for you, though, showing the World Map, as it looks at the start of N/D '39:

[brian brian]

well 5 chits out of 9 pulled with a value 4 or 5 is again boosting the USE levels very quickly. this is though, a good example of how not to play the Axis; they must make progress on the map, but preferably not at a cost of seeing the US enter the war in early 1941, which issuing so many questionably valuable DOWs in 1939 will probably accomplish. Looks like 1st gear-up will come in M/A or M/J 40 at latest, and the two chits for Vichy declaration could have the US well on the way to War Appropriations with some continued luck. Perhaps the increased risk of the US pulling a 4 or 5 would make long-term MWiF Axis players more conservative in 1939.

I would just say it would look nice on the screen to see some sort of actual chit as in the game, but that would perhaps be feature creep.

[Red Prince]

Here's a summary of what "could" have happened with chit draws:

Red means a chit could have been added.
Blue means a chit could have been removed.
Purple means a chit was to be added, without a roll.

New Game for 09.02.05

US Entry Markers:
2 to Ge/It Pool: (2238 [4], 2075 [3])
1 to Ja Pool: (2688 [4])

Impulse: 1
Germany DOW Poland (CW); USE-8 (+1 chit, 2345 [3])
Japan aligned Siam; USE-1 (+1 chit, 2698 [4]
Japan entered Ichang; USE-1 (+1 chit, 1279 [2])
And you're not going to believe this . . . taking Changsha: USE-1 (+1 chit, 32 [0])

Impulse: 2
CW DOW Germany; USE-8 (-1 chit, 2 of 3 [3])

Impulse: 3
Italy DOW France; USE-7 (+1 chit, 751 [1])
Germany DOW Denmark (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
Germany DOW Netherlands (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
Germany DOW Hungary (CW); USE-10 (no chit)
Japan moves its MAR Division into Pakhoi, then on to Nanning; USE-6 (no chit)

Impulse: 4
USSR DOW Persia (Ja); USE-1 (-1 chit, 1 of 3 [1])
USSR moves the CAV from Minsk to the forest SW of Vilna; USE-8 (no chit)

Impulse: 5
Italy DOW CW; USE-3 (+1 chit, 2898 [4])
Germany DOW Belgium (CW); USE-6 (+1 chit, 770 [1])

Impulse: 9
. . . including taking Nanyang with MOT; USE-9 (no chit)
Attack on Chengchow: Assault, Fractional Odds .509 (No); Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (3003 [5])
-----
As you can see, the Mandatory chits totaled 4 (3, 4, 4, 5)
The possible additions to the Entry Pools went 7 out of 13 (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4)
The possible removals from the Entry Pools went 2 of 3 (1, 3)

If the chits that the Axis had nothing to do with were not nearly so high valued, things would be a lot different; they total 16 in value. Out of 13 chances to add chits, the Axis only added 15 in total value, out of 3 chances to remove chits, a total value of 4 got removed. Maybe the Axis should have taken into account the high initial chit draws, but I think that looking only at what the Axis did in terms of aggressive play, the chit draws were fairly reasonable. Add to that the fact that the Allies are playing very conservatively as far as chit draws are concerned -- the Baltic States are still unoccupied, and neither of the two Soviet claims were made -- I'm not sure this is entirely a bad way for the Axis to play.

If the Axis moves first, and is lucky enough to get some helpful weather (and I'm not telling yet [:'(] ) in N/D '39, France might not even make it to 1940 if Vichy does get declared. If that choice is made, closing the Med might be right out the window, and Germany could well be in position to tranfer its troops back to Poland for a Summer '40 Barbarossa, which would be devastating for the USSR. If that means the Soviets can also be eliminated, it may not matter how strong the USA is or how early they enter the war. The same applies to Japan having a chance at taking China out of the game. If either or both of these happen, the USA and CW will still be hard-pressed to come back in force. While waiting for the inevitable invasions, Germany and Italy could still try closing the Med . . . just a little later than planned.

So, in conclusion, I don't think the Axis has done anything completely wrong yet, though they are about to (double-DOW on Greece).

[Red Prince]

Just another follow-up on the chit pool composition in 1939, here are the chances of pulling a chit with each value:

0 - 1.7%
1 - 30.2%
2 - 24.9%
3 - 21.1%
4 - 20.9%
5 - 1.3%

So, for the initial draw, there was a 42% chance that each of the 3 starting chits would be a 3 or a 4. The expected starting chits should on average, have been worth 2.33 each, or a total value of 7. In this game, the average was 3.66, totaling 11. However, given the chit distribution, the chances of pulling 2 chits with a value of 2, and 1 chit valued at 3 (averaging 2.33) are almost the same as drawing 2 chits with a value of 4, and 1 chit valued at 3 (averaging 3.66). For each chit, there is a 1 in 4 chance of drawing a 2, and 1 in 5 chance of drawing a 4 (roughly). That's roughly the same chances.

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's a summary of what "could" have happened with chit draws:

Red means a chit could have been added.
Blue means a chit could have been removed.
Purple means a chit was to be added, without a roll.

New Game for 09.02.05

US Entry Markers:
2 to Ge/It Pool: (2238 [4], 2075 [3])
1 to Ja Pool: (2688 [4])

For each of the other chit draws, I'll now add in the chance of drawing a chit in the first place.

Impulse: 1
120% Germany DOW Poland (CW); USE-8 (+1 chit, 2345 [3])
30% Japan aligned Siam; USE-1 (+1 chit, 2698 [4]
20% Japan entered Ichang; USE-1 (+1 chit, 1279 [2])
30% And you're not going to believe this . . . taking Changsha: USE-1 (+1 chit, 32 [0])

Impulse: 2
120% CW DOW Germany; USE-8 (-1 chit, 2 of 3 [3])

Impulse: 3
70% Italy DOW France; USE-7 (+1 chit, 751 [1])
30% Germany DOW Denmark (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
30% Germany DOW Netherlands (CW); USE-8 (no chit)
30% Germany DOW Hungary (CW); USE-10 (no chit)
20% Japan moves its MAR Division into Pakhoi, then on to Nanning; USE-6 (no chit)

Impulse: 4
90% USSR DOW Persia (Ja); USE-1 (-1 chit, 1 of 3 [1])
70% USSR moves the CAV from Minsk to the forest SW of Vilna; USE-8 (no chit)

Impulse: 5
70% Italy DOW CW; USE-3 (+1 chit, 2898 [4])
80% Germany DOW Belgium (CW); USE-6 (+1 chit, 770 [1])

Impulse: 9
20% . . . including taking Nanyang with MOT; USE-9 (no chit)
20% Attack on Chengchow: Assault, Fractional Odds .509 (No); Roll = 8 = */2S; USE-7 (no chit)

So, and I'm really not sure I understand how this works, but you would expect the total number of chits drawn to be 2.9 in addition to the original 3. Add in the final draw at the end of the turn (below), and you get 6.9 chits that should be in the Entry and Tension Pools in the final tally. (Did I calculate that correctly?)

Let's call it 7 chits, because I believe in 6.9 chits as much as I believe in the "average American family" having 2.4 kids and half of a dog. I've never see a family with exactly 2.4 kids, and I'll never see the pools have exactly 6.9 chits. So, let us say we should expect to see 7 chits in the pools.

The 7 chits should total 16.31 in value (I'll deal with partial value, but not partial chits). Reality has 9 chits in the pools, with a total value of 27, which averages out (quite neatly) to 3 per chit. So, reality shows the Axis was unlucky by about 2 chit draws and a deviation of +.67 per chit.

Now, let's see where that unluckiness happened:

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (3003 [5])
-----
As you can see, the Mandatory chits totaled 4 (3, 4, 4, 5)

This 4 chits total 16 in value, with a deviation of +1.67, completely beyond Axis control.

The possible additions to the Entry Pools went 7 out of 13 (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4)

Here we would have expected 5.7 chits, so the Axis was unlucky by 1.3 chits drawn. The 7 chits, though, total 15, averaging 2.14, which is a deviation of -.19, or about what you would expect. The bad luck here is in the extra chits drawn.

The possible removals from the Entry Pools went 2 of 3 (1, 3)

And, finally, you would expect 2.8 chits to have been removed, which accounts for the rest of the Axis "bad luck". The 2 chits removed total 4, average 2, which is a deviation of -.33 (which, in this case favors the Allies).

All I can really say about this, is that the Axis play was aggressive, but everything within its control came out roughly as expected, with the exception of an additional chit (forget the .3) Everything outside direct Axis control ran in favor of the Allies. Here we add the .3 to the .8 to get a chit that "should" have been removed, and the deviations obviously favored the Allies.

So, can the Axis play really be described as "not how to play the Axis" given the fact that the Axis technically doesn't know what is in the pools? If the expected chit values are used instead of the actual values, at the end of the turn, the Axis would estimate the following numbers before any Options are chosen (actual numbers in parentheses):

Ge/It chit value: 9.32 (12)
Ja chit value: 11.65 (15)

Ge/It Entry Level: 19.8 (25.5)
Ja Entry Level: 22.14 (28.5)

And, after each Entry Pool moved an "expected value" chit of 2.33 to the Tension Pools:

Ge/It Entry chit value: 6.99 (9)
Ge/It Tension chit value: 2.33 (3)
Ja Entry chit value: 9.32 (11)
Ja Tension chit value: 2.33 (4)

Ge/It Entry Level: 15.15 (19)
Ge/It Tension Level: 4.66 (7)
Ja Entry Level: 17.48 (21)
Ja Tension Level: 4.66 (8)

Having little experience with as many games as some of you have seen/played, are the numbers the Axis would have "estimated" still extremely high for S/O '39? If so, then I suppose you could make a case for the Axis having played foolishly. But remember, there are still 2 chits in the pools that could not have been "expected" based on how the Axis played. Assume that one chit comes out of each Entry Pool (USSR failure to remove one for taking E. Poland for the Ge/It; an extra chit for taking a Chinese city for Ja), and here's what the Axis play should have produced:

Ge/It Entry chit value: 4.66 (9)
Ge/It Tension chit value: 2.33 (3)
Ja Entry chit value: 6.99 (11)
Ja Tension chit value: 2.33 (4)

Ge/It Entry Level: 10.49 (19)
Ge/It Tension Level: 4.66 (7)
Ja Entry Level: 12.82 (21)
Ja Tension Level: 4.66 (8)

Now, if you look at the last actions that the Axis took to actually add a chit to each pool, you find the German DOW on Belgium in Impulse #5, which may have been questionable, but you have to go all the way back to Impulse #1 to find the problem in the Japanese strategy. In that case, you would expect .8 chits to be added to the Ja Entry Pool. Instead, you get 3 straight rolls of '1' and add 3 chits. That's just bad luck, if you ask me. If even one of those hadn't produced a chit, and if the occupation of E. Poland had removed a chit (as it does 70% of the time), the Axis could reasonably have expected the numbers listed immediately above.

So, I ask again, was the Axis play really so aggressive as to be defined as "how not to play the Axis"? Or was it just the luck of the draw -- quite literally -- on the part of the Allies?

I'm not putting this all together as a defense of my gameplay. I'm really curious, because all of us have had information that the Axis would not have in an actual game -- the actual running totals for the US Entry Pools. (If I have screwed up my math anywhere, please let me know, since it might invalidate my entire set of arguments).

Thoughts, anyone?
-----
Edit: Having said all of this, the fact that the US was able choose to Relocate the fleet to Pearl Harbor should scare the pants off the Axis at this point, changing their behavior quite a bit. On the other hand, the damage has already been done. It might be wise to hold off for a turn before making any more DOWs, of course (particularly on Greece), since in 1940 there is a 55% chance of a 0 or 1 for each chit drawn. The only problem with that is that, particularly in China, the Axis needs to take advantage of its present position. The DOW on Greece can probably wait until 1940, but Japan needs to keep the pressure on China at a very high level. That might mean taking additional cities in N/D '39, if it seems possible to isolate a lot of units.

On the German side of things, if Vichy is going to be the choice, getting that done in '39 could be a devestating blow to the Allies. France is still very weak and vulnerable (yeah, that's the CW's fault, I know) and good weather in N/D '39 could see Paris fall. How much should this impact the Axis strategy vs. the risk of higher chit draws? I don't really know.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

As in the last game, there was a lot of aggressive Axis play, but there were also a good number of high chits drawn. I know there are going to be questions about how this reflects on the current system, but 2 games does not make a really good-sized pool to make any real comparisons. It's going to take hundreds of games to determine if there truly is any "bias" in the program or not.

I've got to sort through some details, and it's going to take some time. I really wasn't expecting the turn to end yet, and while I could have changed the fact, there really isn't any point in it, is there? Let the chips fall where they may. It just means I have to do some planning and checking I wasn't expecting to do yet. This probably means it'll be tomorrow sometime that the rest of the End-of-Turn stuff gets posted . . .

. . . so, in the meantime, feel free to suggest build strategies, and I'll look through them for ideas.
-----
Edit: Unless I've miscalculated, the available BP are as follows:

Germany: 18
Italy: 3
Japan: 11

China: 4
CW: 13
France: 4
USA: 11
USSR: 8

Without checking the force pools (so some units might not be available until 1940...):
USSR 1939: ARM - HQ - Infantry units
USA: Shipbuilding (Carriers. Repairs can wait...). However, don't forget to build some infantry type units during 1940 to make sure Pearl and Pago Pago get garrisons (since US entry is already high, with those lucky draws, this is somewhat earlier than normal).
France: empty the MIL and GAR forcepools as soon as possible, since Gort is still drinking tea on the Island and there's a gap in the frontline...
CW: INF, MIL or GAR, whatever there is available with the highest changes of getting UK units. If there is a HQ available (don't know if there is one to build in 1939) it's got top priority. Of course at least one aircraft has to be build (if there isn't any money left, simply build a CVP-0 te get gearing for planes. You'll have to have you're FTR's in place in M/A 1940, so some pilots might come in handy.
China: any infantry type of unit will do. I like the MIL and the GAR. They are cheap and arrive fast...

Japan: If there is a good chanche of getting a reasonable LND-3 (if you've drawn very bad at setup...), you might want to build one (don't forget the pilot). If not, it's nice to build fast moving land units: a MECH division, CAV and some infantry (Militia/Territorial) units in the first two turns. I really like the large, large Chinese map, so there are gaps all around there and fast units are also capable of eliminating the early partisans. There's time enough for building carriers. I would delay those activities until the first turn of 1940...
Italy: no builds. I'll save those BP for the Marines to be build next turn. It's my favourite Italian unit to put pressure on the CW/France. Together with the nice Italian shore bombardment abilities it's a real asset... Also: you're closing the Med, aren't you. I would, if I'm playing the Italians. No way I'm going to support any other Axis (read: German) strategy, before the Med has become a nice Axis (Italian) lake. And with an early collapse of France possible, wouldn't it be nice to crack Spain and Gibraltar in 1940? That's good Italian politics.
Germany: Any good Stuka's or FTR's left in the Force Pool with a reasonable chanche of getting them (or do you have to wait for 1940 so you can first scrap some terrible ones still left around in those force pools). Depends on you're draw at setup.
Now, depending on the strategy, apart from those aircraft:
close the MED: HQ - PARA - MTN - SUB - Infantry
Barbarossa: HQ - PARA - MECH - MTN - Infantry
Now, if you're a very generous German player (I am, generally), I'll going to give to the Italians a whole lot of BP/Resources to build a huge airforce for me, starting next turn. I'll lend lease the Stuka and the Ju-88. He'll build me an airforce so I'm capable of eliminating all enemies with an Italian air action, combined with German land actions. So, starting next turn, he will get at least 5 BP a turn from Germany. Expensive: yes, but oh how effective to use against Spain and later in the game in Russia...

Now, don't forget first to scrap planes you couldn't scrap because you were neutral at the start of the game. You can scrap an entire extra year of planes now you've entered the war.

Let's see what you've done... I'm not the least curious...

[Centuur]

On you're question: was the Axis very aggressive: yes. However I believe there is a saying which says: opportunity killed the cat...
That's how it should be. You got good weather in the first turn, so you've used it. Hell: by doing so you might be able, if weather stays nice, to get a crack at killing the French in winter. Now that's gaining time for you. And time is everything in this game.
Now, on the US entry thing, as the Axis I'm not totally happy. I'm happy about one thing though... The USA has just telegraphed to me his entry position and isn't totally aware of the very damaging things he could have done to the Axis war effort, by choosing that particular option.

The relocation of the fleet to Pearl is such a high entry number, that Axis now knows there aren't just only a lot of chits already in the pools (bad luck with die rolls), but also that the draw was bad from their point of view. So, they know the USA is probably going to get into war early... Also: what is the benefit of the fleet being in Pearl at this moment? It isn't even going to make a headline in a Japanese newspaper in this stage of the war.
With such high chits in the USA pools, I wouldn't choose such an high entry option at all. Simply wait until later. The USA is now really screaming to the Axis: I've drawn so well...
The Iceland option I would have played too, but I would have embargoed the Japanese. You than say to the Axis: I'm not giving anything away on my draw, since I've chosen in the middle of things...
That's how you play. You'll give only a very few things away with US entry.
Also, you can play as next option 23 in the next turn. Now we're talking... You've just taken away 2 whole resources from the Japanese. That's very, very damaging to the Japanese war effort in 1939! Tokyo in total shock by the US aggression against the Empire. Only oil comes in. He's just lost a huge number of build points in 1940. Headlines in the Japanese newspapers: no more hamburgers to be delivered to McDonalds in Tokyo... [:D]

WiF is all about economics, some say. I don't totally agree with this, however, in this case, they are right. The less resources you'll have to hand over to the Axis as the USA (and the USSR) the better it is.