MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Centuur]

First, next time if you've got a choice of destroying a MIL or an INF, you should always destroy the MIL (even if it is the better unit). The reason for this is that that unit will of course be rebuild immediately and will also appear on the map the next turn (provided it's city is still controlled).

Second: the French made a judgment error in the setup, regarding the Italians. I personally would have set up two units on the border. One in the hex now occupied with the Italian 4-3 and another in the hex of the Italian MOT. A third one could be set up in Nice, however I prefer moving the Marseilles MIL into Toulon as one of the moves in the second turn. This forces the Italian army to fight the French head on. It's a pretty tough fight on the high slops of the passes through the Alps. There is no way he can walk around you in that case. Only the Italian MTN can walk accross an Alpine hexside, but it is immediately OOS.
The goal of the French defense is to make the Axis pay for every hex. So let him fight you. You don't run away from any fight, since doing so, means a faster collapse of the French army.

Personally, I think this part of France is really, really in shambles. First: you're goal should be to gain time. This means that the Italian MOT cannot be allowed to move freely next turn. If it does, it's going to Lyon or (even worse) to Marseilles, thus forcing you're precious BB's to rebase to a very threathened Toulon (since Corsica is already Axis territory).  There is only one unit capable to prevent this, and this is the CAV. It has to move one hex east, even if it means that it will get disorganised. Also, leaving it in the hex isn't going to do you any good anymore.
Toulon looks like a save haven for the Fleet, however, if Marseilles is captured French forces there are OOS. And if BB's are forced to rebase a second time, there isn't a place they can move to except out of France. If Vichy is than created, a lot of the territories might go to Vichy and there is even a slight possibility that Free France isn't going to get created at all. Dangerous, very dangerous to the Allied side...

Now, you're going to get the Marseilles MIL back into his home town. How: by railmoving that unit there. Yes, it's going to get disorganised, but there isn't any other unit available for this at the moment. Things are still not looking good at all, after these moves, but you haven't got any other possibilities at all. The 1-3 division should move now towards the Italians, since it might become important to stop the Italian moves next impulse.

Now for the North part of France. Problems all over the place? Not really. Yes, there's a breakthrough of the front. Yes, there is a problem regarding the defense of Paris. But you're General Staff is really optimistic about things developing: Paris in Axis hands? "Impossible"... Also, the French PM finally got his message accross to Chuchill, so Gort is going to arrive at least...
IMHO you've got to gamble now, as the French. Bad weather (snow) it there, so the fighting is going to be less effective on the German side.
First: how to repair the front. Since TAC factors are halved with this weather, the possibility of succesfull ground strikes is decreased. You should use this. It's time for you're Georges to leave his precious Chateaux with the excellent wine cellar and start to earn his pay in action. After all, you're out of reserves. Move you're Paris Mil one hex east. Move you're MTN with his INF one hex west. Move Georges and the MIL into the empty hex under the 9-4. Move the 5-4 INF SE of Lille to the hex with the MOT and move the remaining two units one hex west.
Lord Gort, would you please be so kind to disembark at least one corps in Calais and yourself into Boulogne? Rouen is far away from the action at this point. You'll need Gort to prevent the Germans from making a four hex assault on Lille at this moment...
Now, you've got only one place with one unit the Germans can attack. This is as far away from Paris as possible (and it's got an expendable MIL in it with very good combat factors) all other hexes have two units in them. I wouldn't empty the Maginot line, since he's already suffering from weather conditions (-2 odds level isn't particularly nice at all). 
Now, start praying the weather stays bad, so it will take the other German HQ's a lot of time to get to the front.

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

And, while I still haven't actually thought about what to do with the French, here is the cluttered version, showing you every unit in this particular region:

It doesn't look good for France. The French have:
- 8 mobile corps (2 of which are HQs)
- 1 division
- 4 garrison units by the Maginot Line sector
- 1 bomber & 1 fighter
- 3 disorganized corps (2 in Lille & 1 southwest of the Ardennes)

Against this, the Germans have:
- 18 mobile corps (no HQs since von Bock is disorganized and it looks like von Leeb & Rundstedt are still outside of theatre)
- 5 garrison units in the Maginot sector
- 6 divisions
- 1 bomber & 1 (twin-engine) fighter (giving the French a very slight edge as their fighter is single-engine)
- potentially more units on the way as they come back from the Balkans and/or Poland

France does have four advantages:
- the snow, which (if I recall correctly) reduces odds by 2 shifts (I don't play with 1D10 CRT so I may very well be wrong).
- no German motorized divisions (aka no cheap blitz losses)
- the disorganized Paris militia cannot (if memory serves) be overrun so it is blocking German advances and in particular transfer of German units from the Maginot sector to the central sector. (this was, I feel, an error by the Germans as they had the opportunity to shatter the unit)
- the German armoured fist is out of position as it is up on the wrong side of Lille (although the Germans can somewhat remedy this)

Given the snow I feel the French can be bold and try to keep Germans away from Paris. (If it was fine weather I would say they would have to pull back a bit to keep the Germans from getting good attacks). However, a stronger Paris defence is IMO incompatible with maintaining the current solid line along the Maginot.

To that end I suggest the following:
- the strong French stack with the AA gun stays where it is
- HQ Bilotte moves out of Paris and joins the XIX MOT corps
- HQ Georges goes to Paris
- the Lyons MIL and the XII INF corps move to the clear hex contaning the name "Seine"
- the MTN (Alpine) corps moves to the forests where HQ Georges is now

While the Germans could get a decent 3-hex attack on the AA gun stack (3:1 blitz with 67% chance of becoming 4:1 with fractional odds), given the weather it won't be very good. If they get lucky and get a breakthrough anyway they can't get any closer to Paris on their impulse. And they can't get good attacks on the hexes in front of Paris.

Over on the Maginot sector, I suggest:
- the 3-1 GARR move to the mountains (as Red Prince is using
- the 4-1 GARR in the clear move to Metz (the city with the factory & resource)
My rationale for this is that the German units in this sector are all their own slow GARR and so they can't quickly transfer to other theatres. Holding Metz with 2 corps is IMO more important than keeping those German GARR in place.

In the meantime, the CW should hold up its end and bring in a BEF to Rouen. It can always start running for Bordeaux if the situation gets really bad.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

First, next time if you've got a choice of destroying a MIL or an INF, you should always destroy the MIL (even if it is the better unit). The reason for this is that that unit will of course be rebuild immediately and will also appear on the map the next turn (provided it's city is still controlled).

The reason for the choice was because I was expecting the unit to be OOS, and therefore wanted the white print unit still on the map.

Second: the French made a judgment error in the setup, regarding the Italians. I personally would have set up two units on the border. One in the hex now occupied with the Italian 4-3 and another in the hex of the Italian MOT. A third one could be set up in Nice, however I prefer moving the Marseilles MIL into Toulon as one of the moves in the second turn. This forces the Italian army to fight the French head on. It's a pretty tough fight on the high slops of the passes through the Alps. There is no way he can walk around you in that case. Only the Italian MTN can walk accross an Alpine hexside, but it is immediately OOS.
The goal of the French defense is to make the Axis pay for every hex. So let him fight you. You don't run away from any fight, since doing so, means a faster collapse of the French army.

That's how I started the game, but needed to move the MTN to the northern border. Exactly where are all these units you are talking about supposed to come from? The French are a little limited in the first few turns in what they have available. I even had to transport the unit from Syria to get what I've got.

Personally, I think this part of France is really, really in shambles. First: you're goal should be to gain time. This means that the Italian MOT cannot be allowed to move freely next turn. If it does, it's going to Lyon or (even worse) to Marseilles, thus forcing you're precious BB's to rebase to a very threathened Toulon (since Corsica is already Axis territory).  There is only one unit capable to prevent this, and this is the CAV. It has to move one hex east, even if it means that it will get disorganised. Also, leaving it in the hex isn't going to do you any good anymore.
Toulon looks like a save haven for the Fleet, however, if Marseilles is captured French forces there are OOS. And if BB's are forced to rebase a second time, there isn't a place they can move to except out of France. If Vichy is than created, a lot of the territories might go to Vichy and there is even a slight possibility that Free France isn't going to get created at all. Dangerous, very dangerous to the Allied side...

See the above about units. Nice is a primary supply source, too, don't forget.

Now, you're going to get the Marseilles MIL back into his home town. How: by railmoving that unit there. Yes, it's going to get disorganised, but there isn't any other unit available for this at the moment. Things are still not looking good at all, after these moves, but you haven't got any other possibilities at all. The 1-3 division should move now towards the Italians, since it might become important to stop the Italian moves next impulse.

Take another look. The Marseilles MIL was disorganized in an attack by the Italian ART. Can't rail him anywhere.

Now for the North part of France. Problems all over the place? Not really. Yes, there's a breakthrough of the front. Yes, there is a problem regarding the defense of Paris. But you're General Staff is really optimistic about things developing: Paris in Axis hands? "Impossible"... Also, the French PM finally got his message accross to Chuchill, so Gort is going to arrive at least...

True, Gort can come, but where to place him and his cohort . . .

IMHO you've got to gamble now, as the French. Bad weather (snow) it there, so the fighting is going to be less effective on the German side.

Also true. Less effective Germans. A dull knife is also less effective than a sharp one, but you can still stab someone with it. [;)]

First: how to repair the front. Since TAC factors are halved with this weather, the possibility of succesfull ground strikes is decreased. You should use this. It's time for you're Georges to leave his precious Chateaux with the excellent wine cellar and start to earn his pay in action. After all, you're out of reserves. Move you're Paris Mil one hex east.

No can do. He's disorganized.

Move you're MTN with his INF one hex west. Move Georges and the MIL into the empty hex under the 9-4. Move the 5-4 INF SE of Lille to the hex with the MOT and move the remaining two units one hex west.
Lord Gort, would you please be so kind to disembark at least one corps in Calais and yourself into Boulogne? Rouen is far away from the action at this point. You'll need Gort to prevent the Germans from making a four hex assault on Lille at this moment...

All of this is a possibility

Now, you've got only one place with one unit the Germans can attack. This is as far away from Paris as possible (and it's got an expendable MIL in it with very good combat factors) all other hexes have two units in them. I wouldn't empty the Maginot line, since he's already suffering from weather conditions (-2 odds level isn't particularly nice at all). 
Now, start praying the weather stays bad, so it will take the other German HQ's a lot of time to get to the front.

The Paris MIL being disorganized might ruin your entire plan, my friend. I think praying for bad weather might be the best option for the French.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

The Paris Mil is disorganized (the orange status indicator).

[Red Prince]

- 1 bomber & 1 (twin-engine) fighter (giving the French a very slight edge as their fighter is single-engine)

Actually, the French don't have the advantage here. Both of those units are disorganized, so they have no air force.

I'll have to play with both plans presented and see what they look like. Might not get this done today, as I'm actually playing a few other games at the moment, and I'm enjoying the fact that they don't really use my brain at all.[:)]

[composer99]

To me it seems the Paris MIL is in a perfect spot to block the German advance on their next impulse and might be the only unit they attack (unless they are feeling really lucky).

[composer99]

Also, if you are feeling like attacking the strong French AA hex anyway, as insurance against a breakthrough, Bilotte can move behind that stack to the hex SW of Lille and something else can take his place with the MOT (leaving the forest hex along the Seine empty, 1 unit in Paris, and 2 units in the hex W of the Paris MIL).

[brian brian]

hey there, Happy Thanksgiving! It sure is nice watching my football team looking so good after so many years of futility......half-time now, I wish they would have canned Nickelback. Yuck.

going back to the USE situation in this game, I thought you had already played N/D 39 and most of the DOWs, including on Belgium, had happened then. I can only check in here every few days, and frequently on a dial-up too poor to wait for all the pictures. So as for how to play or not play with the USE system, there are several things I would do differently. I would never DOW anyone in N/D 39 as the Axis most likely.....just too much risk of a high USE chit, a risk that lowers substantially just one turn later. So two DOW and two alignments on that turn would not be a good idea. Similarly, I don't think I would ever issue two Italian DOWs on the West.....either way, you are handing things to the Allies, either a 2nd USE chit, or letting the CW do their own declaration and surprise impulse during the Italian war with France, at a somewhat lower cost, USE wise.

A small thing that contributed to the USE mess the Axis are facing now, is the Japanese alignment of Siam. A small chance of a chit, but chit values are huge in 1939, and of course magnified greatly in MWiF as we see in this game once again with the US holding 4 four chits and 1 five chit.....nearly astronomically impossible with cardboard chits, substantially less so with unlimited chits....so this is yet another MWiF game with a probability spike in this key game system. But anyway, that decision was the same as the decision to reinforce Gibraltar rather than France......you are responding to future threats far too early. For Siam, unless the CW infantry division is in range to land, there is no need at all to align Siam in 1939. Late 1940 is a far better choice. For that matter, I would probably let a silly Allied player take a 50% shot of a USE hit and do the Declaration and then sail any odd Peacekeeper available into Bangkok....a good Japanese always has troops in port waiting for the Russians to hand them the free oil in Persia, and a single 1-4 INF division can't land in Bangkok on it's own, and I believe it is no longer a land-able hex on the MWiF map anyway. There is little chance the CW can spare the troops to actually take Siam with any unit in Bangkok, and even if they do....so what? They can hardly defend the place either as it has no overland supply links, and the Japanese will soon become the absolute masters of the South China Sea for years to come. On the Japanese surprise impulse they can land anywhere on the Malayan peninsula they choose. So in World in Flames, while you do have to keep your enemy's potential moves in your plans, responding to them too early costs too much at the current front.

Also, for your Med strategy involving aligning Yugoslavia ... what happens if the Russians don't demand Bessarabia? This is part of the question of playing solitaire each side as best as possible, or playing a test game to see what happens when you combine certain decisions on each side. I see you doing much more of the latter, making decisions for one side based on already knowing what the other side is going to do. An educational way to learn the game, to be sure, but not something you can use in a real game. One small example of that was setting up the CW pipelines knowing the Netherlands would be in the game on the first turn. What if the Germans hadn't attacked the Netherlands until late 41/early 42?

Moving the Pacific Fleet to Pearl Habor was a very good choice for the long run....however that is a tricky option to learn. You can't manipulate tension until all of the 10 ships are actually in Pearl Harbor. And it takes four impulses just to get them out to sea, and at least one end-of-turn Return to base phase to get the Fleet into port. And the US Entry phase comes before the Return to Base phase. So the best way to play this option is to decide it mentally the turn before, and then slowly send the US BBs out to sea before you play it. Oil cost is irrelevant to a neutral US not yet loaning out resources to the West, so you might as well make the Japanese sweat with any naval moves not needed for reinforcements.... but unless it is a very long summer turn of 7 impulses for the Allies, it is impossible to get the whole Fleet to Pearl all in one turn on time to manipulate Tension the turn after you play this option.

I do think France First is a valid Axis strategy choice. But you makes your choices and you take your chances. A 1st US Gear-up in J/F 1940 is a heavy, heavy price to pay and by 1943 the Axis will be experiencing Shock & Awe. On the Allied side, they have to prepare for it during set-up before the Germans. To just ignore it once the Germans pull the trigger, well, the Allies will be living in interesting times in this game. A key Allied response is to use their surprise impulse bonus die on each ground strike to flip any German HQs in the West. My French bomber once got one of the dice to ring up the lucky "1" on Rundstedt in the woods on the second impulse. The German player eventually blamed his loss of the game on that. It is a very high risk strategy.


Someone mentioned learning to select ships when putting together a task force. One of the more annoying types of opponents I have played is the one who puts all their sea-box forces together based on maximizing their factors on the combat charts. That's OK on your own time in an email game. In person, factor counters drive me nuts and my favorite rule in wargaming ever I think has been fractional odds for land combat in WiF. Just throw in a unit and it helps. The naval system doesn't have that. There are two easy things to learn....always send out 2, 4, 7, or 11 ships to a box. 3, 5, or 8 are bad choices. Also, when selecting ships, send the ones with more AA factors to the sea zones where they will face air attack. So the USN and RN need to keep their low AA ships in the Atlantic, their high AA ships in the Med. The Japanese need the high AA ships in the Central Pacific or wherever they expect to face the main American CV fleet, and the low AA ships escorting things in interior areas.

[brian brian]

I guess actually the US could get the Fleet to Pearl in just four impulses by moving them port-to-port after playing the option to allow that move, rather than just sending them to a sea-box....it's been awhile. I think I need to play some actual World in Flames...

[Red Prince]

Just a note: the CW began with the Burma TERR at setup, so there would have been no need for them to land anyone anywhere. He could have walked in. That doesn't negate your point. It is just something to know.

Also, for your Med strategy involving aligning Yugoslavia ... what happens if the Russians don't demand Bessarabia? This is part of the question of playing solitaire each side as best as possible, or playing a test game to see what happens when you combine certain decisions on each side. I see you doing much more of the latter, making decisions for one side based on already knowing what the other side is going to do. An educational way to learn the game, to be sure, but not something you can use in a real game. One small example of that was setting up the CW pipelines knowing the Netherlands would be in the game on the first turn. What if the Germans hadn't attacked the Netherlands until late 41/early 42?

It was stated in the beginning that a certain set of conditions would be played in the Balkans. You do have a good point, but in this case it is moot, since I would like to run a game similar to the one that I lost, which included a test that I was not yet able to complete -- verifying that Rumania as a full Axis ally could indeed move all of its troops out of the country without any trouble.

As for fleet configurations, I'm not troubled by how many factors each ship has. I don't count them, I just estimate. My main confusion tends to be how many of each type I should include in a fleet of 11, let's say. It all depends on where you are sending it, of course. It's figuring that part out, and remembering to include convoy points in the count that tends to give me trouble.

[Centuur]

Pearl Harbour is 4 movement points away from the USA. So there are a lot of ships capable to go from port to port. Personally, I wouldn't have chosen this option in the first turn, since it is broadcasting the entry levels to the Axis. Simply wait one turn, so the Axis will continue there aggressive play for another turn at least. Some extra chits due to an aggressive Japanese player in China are of course possible. Also, it probably means that the Japanese will not start building CV's already.
I would have embargoed the Japanese in the first turn and in the next turn embargoed him again, followed (if succesfull) by the departure of the fleet to Pearl. Next: well it might be time to gear up, I presume (since that option has top priority to take, if possible).

With a Burmese TERR in the CW set up, Japan cannot do anything else than align Siam in the first impulse. Bad luck for the Axis.

The magic numbers of fleet taskforces are of course known. However, is it wise to have a "shore bombardment" fleet, a CV fleet, a fast moving fleet, a slow moving fleet and so on. What is better? That were the kind of problems I did face in the past (and probably still am....). The AA factors are of course valuable with regards to the Med, but regarding the Pacific, things aren't clear at all.
Or is it better to simply react on the possibilities there and only go for those magic number and ignore the composition of your fleets...
I don't know how to put what ship in the task force... That's the problem...

[Red Prince]

I'm very curious about the fact that more than one person has suggested starting the embargo on that first turn. I had always thought this was also telegraphing US Entry, not because of the specific number, but because people usually do it in 3 straight turns, which means the US expects to be able to do the final one in J/F '40. Doesn't that telegraph just as much as choosing Pearl?

What I thought was supposed to happen was that you went for Gear Up however you could, then for War Appropriations, and then began the embargo if things were still looking good for US Entry.

[brian brian]

Moving to Pearl has it's intricacies I couldn't recall all of. You can't port-to-port until the after you play the option. But you can Return to Base immediately afterwards. Either way, depending on time of year, it might not be until two turns afterward that you can manipulate tension if you didn't have BBs at sea when you played it. You have to keep all that in mind as US Entry starts to move toward the 20s.

As for option picking strategy, this is such a key question that perhaps the AI could use it's own thread on it, separate from US Grand Strategy? I think there is one actually.

In this game, and the one RP was posting for us before this one, US Entry is in no way indicative of an average game of World in Flames. In the current game, this is for three reasons:

1 Pretty good luck for the Allies on the rolls to draw chits, hitting several 2 and 3 rolls.
2 Insanely non-typical luck for the Allies on the values of those chits, magnified by the new unlimited chit system. Recall that every "4" chit (of a total of 6, in a pool also pulled by the Germans and Russians though not until the end of the first turn) drawn in the cardboard game used to reduce the chances of drawing another one. The USA Entry pools holding four "4" chits along with a "5" chit in S/O 39.....I doubt that very many WiF players have EVER seen this.
3 The Axis play with little regard to USE consequences.

A lot of Axis players are scared to pick a France First because of the chance that bad weather rolls, which reinforce themselves, can shut it down quickly. A second reason is the big USE chits in the 1939 pool...which don't come out just because it starts to snow in northwest Europe. It is so easy and fun to ignore that fact in 1939. But you will regret every USE decision in a game that comes down to a struggle for the German factory cities in the spring of 1945, and in fact USE decisions can have a big impact on whether such a struggle ever happens.

In an average game, many players start the 3 chits in the Europe pool. The Japanese pool comes along more slowly and embargo choices are made during 1940. I do think it is best to play #13 Embargo Strategic Materials and #23 Freeze Japanese Assets sequentially, perhaps on the same turn if possible/desirable, all depending on tension needs. Playing 13 by itself doesn't gain enough. I would probably fail a morale check if I was the Axis and the US busted out #26 on the very first turn.

My preferred first choice for the USA is #15 Resources to Western Allies, to start being able to spend the excess US resources otherwise wasted. Since I always play with RaW Oil and Saved Oil options, every bit of savings helps out later in the game. After that all things depend. Gear-up is extremely desirable. So are the two lend to Russia options, #19 Resources and #30 Lend-Lease (BPs) I believe, in case a full-on 1941 Barbarossa is coming. I have really enjoyed the new Lend Lease optional rule that came out in the 2008 Annual and so #27 Lend-Lease to Western Allies is also a prime choice for me now, as the US can actually build planes for England (nice ranges on the P-40s and even the Brewster Buffalo, handy in the East Med) and have a nice set in the Reserve Pool for shipment to China and Russia once they enter the war, as well as handing out Convoy Points after #32, Refute Naval War Zones, but that idea won't work in MWiF, where only BPs can be sent out (I liked WiF5 even better, where you could ship an actual ARM unit to the USSR). These generate the required Tension in the Euro pool fairly easily; the Chinese or Embargo options can do the same in the Japanese pool depending on circumstances, but overall Fleet to Pearl is near the top of the list for the Japanese options. Bad luck on Tension rolls and chit picks can really hammer the US at times, and Fleet to Pearl can help avoid that frustrating problem.


On Siam, I have done the CW invasion in the past, just to mess with the Japanese, but over time I have decided as the Japanese not to get excited about it. It is another port on the South China Sea that has to be held, but there is no economic value to the place, and I think the new map will greatly discourage Japanese designs on Burma anyway, as the oil is even farther away than it used to be, while the total Japanese land force pool is the same size. So faced with the Burmese TERR menace, lol, I think I would let them risk the bad press in the USA and then just liberate the place later.

[Red Prince]

As I sort of mentioned, it was my intent to play Option 15 (Resources to Western Allies), but was so shocked to be able to pick Pearl that I just did it. And regretted it when it came time to create Trade Agreements.

As for these two games "proving" anything about the MWiF infinite pool, I'll just say again that the original testing of it showed that over the course of something on the order of 10,000 simulated games (or was it an order higher?) showed that it pretty much resembled WiF FE. We really shouldn't judge by these two games. I don't know the results from other test games I've played, because I didn't document it this well, but I do remember having one game in mid-1940 which still had the US barely able to Gear Up, and that was playing the Axis just as agressively. In fact, in one game I had Japan DOW the Netherlands the same time Germany did, in order to take the NEI straight away, and it still didn't see the US with a very high entry level.

I really think this was just a quirk of the game so far. We shall see if things even out over the course of the next three or four turns. It sort of did last time.

Final note for the evening: didn't play at all today, which I thought I would. In the morning I'll start looking at how to rebuild the French lines, and how to get Gort to France, and then post what I've come up with. Probably, it will be a mix of what has been suggested so far in this thread.

Good morning, good afternoon, and goodnight. (Depending on where you are).

[Red Prince]

A few months ago, when I was wondering about how the infinite chit pool was created, I read the full statistical analysis written up by Nils and Orm (I think I've got the right people -- I apologize if I'm incorrect), but I just can't remember where to find it. If anyone remembers where it is, would you please post the link to it here?

[Extraneous]

US Entry (infinite chits) ~ paulderynck

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

US Entry (infinite chits) ~ paulderynck

Thanks Extraneous.

Sorry, Paul. Didn't mean to forget your excellent work. I just goofed.

[composer99]

What I thought was supposed to happen was that you went for Gear Up however you could, then for War Appropriations, and then began the embargo if things were still looking good for US Entry.

(From Red Prince post #272)

Keep in mind that usually the US player doesn't often have the opportunity to pass all three (potentially) in rapid sequence by mid-1940. The Oil Embargo option (US entry option 31) often isn't passed until mid to late 1941.

[Red Prince]

I've decided to go with composer99's setup, which you can see below. I'm wondering if Germany might still be able to make an attempt on Metz, though it would be dangerous. I haven't calculated it, because I generally don't think about what moves I'm actually going to make with the enemy while I'm planning defenses. In a normal game you can plan for "expected" moves, but how does one plan for that if you study it and already decide what is going to happen? Conundrum.

Anyway, looking at this, Germany could actually make a 3 hex attack on Lille if it wanted to try again -- and a pretty strong one, too. So, I was wondering if the BEF (which is Gort, a 7-4 MOT, and a 3-4 ART) should go into Calais instead of Ruoen? Or are they not allowed to debark into a hex in enemy ZOC? Just another rule I can't remember right now.

[composer99]

Based on the screenshot with the flyout, it appears to me the Germans could indeed get a 5:1 attack if they chose.

The snow would reduce that to 3:1, while the disorganized units would add a +2 to the die roll (I think). I am not certain what penalty the city & factories would impose.

Given the above, I would revise my previous suggestion and agree with a BEF in Calais.

Given the snow, as the Germans I would definitely kill of the Paris MIL to start pressuring the French right flank.

I would also consider trying a blitz on the AA stack, although I am not certain it would be very good.