Disaster in the making. Oloren (axis) vs Terje (USSR)

[juret]

rocket divisions are amazing. get another 3 of those. they take ages to build up. will make them rdy about after sept-okt mud.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: juret

rocket divisions are amazing. get another 3 of those. they take ages to build up. will make them rdy about after sept-okt mud.

How many can my production support? I allready had 3, so now I have a total of 6 of these guys.

Terje

[terje439]

Turn 158

Apologies
Without really looking at what I did, I closed the wrong application, so all my notes for this turn are lost [:@]

Overall
The Axis gave us a scare this turn as they managed to pocket 6 mechanized corps' under HQ Zhukov. Fortunately they do not have strong units everywhere anymore, so we managed to open the pocket, but I am not sure it will stay open.
I made about 20 attacks I think, and the result was not good, as about half of the attacks were held results.
I am somewhat scared as to what the Axis will manage with the pocket in their turn.

[Hoooper]

I've really enjoyed your AAR, Terje. One thing I'm puzzled by is that you have more than 27,000 planes, but a slick of unused airbases. Not sure how that's possible. In terms of grand strategy, you're going to find it difficult to get to Berlin in the usual way, simply because the Carpathians take at least six months to get over, and the front to to north of them is so short. So I would guess your best chance is to try and stretch the line as much as possible and go for attrition. Once the Wehrmacht gets below about 3.1m it will become brittle and you will have better chances of forming pockets, which will speed the disintegration. This will actually be easier the further east you're fighting. Therefore, I would concentrate your attacks in the south and centre and try to get the line as diagonal, and as corrugated, as possible. Meanwhile build nothing but breakthrough artillery divisions, get some tank armies trained and rested in reserve, and look for a couple of weak point in the line for concentric attacks. If you can get your opponent's infantry divisions down to CV1 or 2 you'll make ground. Also, as mentioned above, I'd put Vasilevski in charge of the Stavka, and look to promote Tolbukhin, Malinovsky, Konev, Katuzov, Shaposhnikov, Rossokovsky to the important front commands. I know you're a long way from the Reichstag, but in my experience the balance of forces can change quickly in the late war.

[sillyflower]

There is a certain nobility to your suffering, Terje

[Hoooper]

And Vatutin, assuming he's still alive ...

[Baelfiin]

ORIGINAL: Hoooper

I've really enjoyed your AAR, Terje. One thing I'm puzzled by is that you have more than 27,000 planes, but a slick of unused airbases. Not sure how that's possible. In terms of grand strategy, you're going to find it difficult to get to Berlin in the usual way, simply because the Carpathians take at least six months to get over, and the front to to north of them is so short. So I would guess your best chance is to try and stretch the line as much as possible and go for attrition. Once the Wehrmacht gets below about 3.1m it will become brittle and you will have better chances of forming pockets, which will speed the disintegration. This will actually be easier the further east you're fighting. Therefore, I would concentrate your attacks in the south and centre and try to get the line as diagonal, and as corrugated, as possible. Meanwhile build nothing but breakthrough artillery divisions, get some tank armies trained and rested in reserve, and look for a couple of weak point in the line for concentric attacks. If you can get your opponent's infantry divisions down to CV1 or 2 you'll make ground. Also, as mentioned above, I'd put Vasilevski in charge of the Stavka, and look to promote Tolbukhin, Malinovsky, Konev, Katuzov, Shaposhnikov, Rossokovsky to the important front commands. I know you're a long way from the Reichstag, but in my experience the balance of forces can change quickly in the late war.

+27

The man knows how to blow up the german army for sure !!!

[Hoooper]

The feeling is mutual

[juret]

ORIGINAL: terje439

ORIGINAL: juret

rocket divisions are amazing. get another 3 of those. they take ages to build up. will make them rdy about after sept-okt mud.

How many can my production support? I allready had 3, so now I have a total of 6 of these guys.

Terje

They seem to fill up slow. Having only 1 division didnt go much faster then have 6 on map for my tests. they use something like 950 rocket ronchers firing 4 rockets each in combat.Tkes time to get that many so good just buy a bunch of them and have them behind lines untill they are rdy 2 months or so later.

Can u give us a new OOB? how many soldiers the red hordes got now?
I see some german inf units on last map are 1/1 now. ant units good job

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Hoooper

I've really enjoyed your AAR, Terje.
1. One thing I'm puzzled by is that you have more than 27,000 planes, but a slick of unused airbases. Not sure how that's possible.

2. In terms of grand strategy, you're going to find it difficult to get to Berlin in the usual way, simply because the Carpathians take at least six months to get over, and the front to to north of them is so short. So I would guess your best chance is to try and stretch the line as much as possible and go for attrition. Once the Wehrmacht gets below about 3.1m it will become brittle and you will have better chances of forming pockets, which will speed the disintegration. This will actually be easier the further east you're fighting. Therefore, I would concentrate your attacks in the south and centre and try to get the line as diagonal, and as corrugated, as possible.

3. Meanwhile build nothing but breakthrough artillery divisions, get some tank armies trained and rested in reserve, and look for a couple of weak point in the line for concentric attacks. If you can get your opponent's infantry divisions down to CV1 or 2 you'll make ground.

4. Also, as mentioned above, I'd put Vasilevski in charge of the Stavka, and look to promote Tolbukhin, Malinovsky, Konev, Katuzov, Shaposhnikov, Rossokovsky to the important front commands. I know you're a long way from the Reichstag, but in my experience the balance of forces can change quickly in the late war.

Thank you for your comments and kind words!
1. Never seems an issue, most of my TACs are in the reserve pool most of the time anyway. Below 35 morale -> reserves.

2. That too was one of the disappointments in the turn labelled disappointment [:)], despite my attacks their number actually did not shrink to any degree. And most my attacks are from the centre down, this is simply dictated by Axis defensive CVs. The German and the Finnish troops are a no go if they are in a level 3 fort unless I can attack from atleqast 3 sides with 6 arty pieces to support it seems. Their CV gets into the silly ranges.

3. Now that sounds somewhat dangerous to me;
although the Axis troops are not what they were in -41, the ones in the "quiet" sectors of the front still packs such a punch that leaving merely one corps on the line makes me nervous. I really think I need more fighting guys on the front line??
If I had had more troops on the front lines, the pocket the Germans formed would likely not have been formed, as I could have held all parts of the breakthrough with 3 corps stacks instead of 2 corps stacks.
But again, I have no idea really, so I will take your advice to heart and build 3 breakthrough artillery divisions per turn (the rest of the points I am keeping for ground troops no matter what people say, sorry about that, but I am just not comfertable enough without more troops on the line).

4. Vasilevski, Vatutin and Konev are going to be hard to place in charge of anything I fear as they are all dead [:(].
But a question to all of you then;
are the points spent on reassigning those generals (it will likely be 2 generals reassigned per every general I move, as I will likely have to reassign someone to the position those generals came from (hope you understand what I mean)), worth the decrease they mean in fighting men?
To me it seems that the Axis will get the dice rolls multiplied every time and I will come out shy in that department every time?

As to change of the outcome, I seriously doubt it, when I took out 1500 of his AFVs in 5 turns and his active AFV count dropped by 3, and he still has over 300 Tigers in his pool, I really do not see myself being able to wear down the German war machine. The game will go on, and the Axis will not reach 290 points for an autovictory, but I still believe the Axis side will win in the end, the question is how big a win will he get.


Terje

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: juret

ORIGINAL: terje439

ORIGINAL: juret

rocket divisions are amazing. get another 3 of those. they take ages to build up. will make them rdy about after sept-okt mud.

How many can my production support? I allready had 3, so now I have a total of 6 of these guys.

Terje

They seem to fill up slow. Having only 1 division didnt go much faster then have 6 on map for my tests. they use something like 950 rocket ronchers firing 4 rockets each in combat.Tkes time to get that many so good just buy a bunch of them and have them behind lines untill they are rdy 2 months or so later.

Can u give us a new OOB? how many soldiers the red hordes got now?
I see some german inf units on last map are 1/1 now. ant units good job

Will post a new OOB after the next turn is done.
Yes, there are a few 1-1 German infantry divisions now, even seen a 0-0 one once, but they still refuse to rout, and he is still managing to have a few reserves available, so I am not able to make any form of breakthrough anywhere, and then ofc just to taunt I keep rolling those 1.9 : 1's.
But my main problem right now imo, is the fact that a level 3 fort means that a 5CV Infantry division is suddenly unable to break, and if I manage to score a retreat anywhere, I do not have the MP to follow up.

Oh well, will build even more mechanized corps next time around.


Terje

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

There is a certain nobility to your suffering, Terje

Sorry to disappoint you, not that much suffering, more a disbelief of how stubborn those Germans are. About nobility, well they do say that if you manage to trace your lineage back far enough, and your family has always lived in Norway, you are very likely in relations with the first King of Norway.
But then again, so is everyone else here [:D]


Terje

[terje439]

Turn 159

Overall
The Axis tries once more to pocket some of our units, and once more we manage to extract them. If they are pocketed again next turn, only two corps will be cut off. Hopefully the attempts to take them out will seize. The Axis make 4 attacks this turn, and score 1 held, 2 retreats and 1 rout. We launch no less than 24 attacks, but results could be better as we get 1 scouted, 9 held, 14 retreats.
Losses are given at;
Axis : 78.000 troops and 288 AFVs
USSR : 139.000 troops and 883 AFVs. Most of the AFVs are lost with the rout result gained by the Axis.
168.000 workers arrive at the manpower pool this turn, and it ends at 10.557

Units
Although more than 20 aerial groups are in need of a rest, I cannot spare them this turn, I need all available units to fly and help break the siege of those 3 mechanized corps.
We form 3 breakthrough artillery divisions, and spend some points on promoting Talbukin to take command of the 1st Belorussian Front, which are located next to HQ Zhukov.
Our forces grew by 101.000 troops this turn.

HQ Zhukov
Once more some of the mechanized units were encircled, but this time only 3 corps. We do once more manage to break out, but it was too close this time. Against the last defender we recieved the results (in order) held held scouted retreat.
This front needs to get their guys to safety and then take a few turns to rebuild some strenght.

Units destroyed
The German 2/48 SP Flak Company and the German 68th Fortified Zone are both destroyed this turn.

Partisans
Although the Axis only perform 5 anti-partisan attacks this turn, that only leaves us with 20 active units. They do manage 8 sabotage missions this turn, but with a mere supply drops, I fear the number of partisan units will drop even further.

[randallw]

The Italians still have aircraft in the OOB.  Looks like a little bug where they were left behind in the withdraw?

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: randallw

The Italians still have aircraft in the OOB.  Looks like a little bug where they were left behind in the withdraw?

The Italians still had some aerial units on the eastern front in -44 and -45 I believe. I know that when Italy signed her armistice some of her airforce kept on fighting for the Axis while the other part faught against the Axis.


Terje

[terje439]

Turn 160

Overall
The Axis once more encircle our units, but this time with the departure of two SS Panzer divisions, they chose to rout the units instead of trying to capture them. This explains some of our AFV losses this turn. The Axis launch a total of 2 attacks, scoring 1 retreat and 1 rout. We score 6 held, 15 retreats and 1 rout this turn. And for once I am not too disappointed by the held results (apart from 2), as I knew they would be held results, but needed to make them to lower the fortification value of the enemy stacks. Losses are reported as;
Axis : 65.000 troops and 231 AFVs
USSR : 129.000 troops and 754 AFVs.
170.000 workers report to the manpower pool this turn, ending it at 9.040.

Units
12 TAC, 3LB, 1 RC is sent to the reserves this turn.
We form 2 rifle corps, and order the creation of 6 breakthrough artillery divisions.
Our armed forces grew by a total of 82.000 soldiers this turn.
We also take a look at TOE % of all our units (I do this every 3-4 turns), and change the settings of quite a few units. Appearently there is no such thing as being filled out, as I had a rocket artillery unit with 183% TOE [:D]. Not bad to have a 2 CV artillery piece .

Partisans
We are left with 24 units on the map after the Axis force 6 units to retreat. Atleast now the numbers are going in the right direction. Our partisans perform 6 acts of sabotague this turn, and our pilots manage to perform 8 supply drops.

[terje439]

Turn 161

Overall
I find I am taking more chances now, and as usual the Axis punish me by launching one attack and scoring one rout. But, it must be done, in the words of Poco; "Keep on tryin'" is all I can do now. We launch 22 attacks for the result of 4 held and 18 retreats. One of the helds was expected. Losses are given as;
Axis : 61.000 troops and 255 AFVs
USSR : 119.000 troops and 623 AFVs.
With a total of 172.000 workers joining the manpower pool, it ends at 6.468 this turn.

Question
If you had the choice of a deliberate attack with 13:4 in ratio (your favour), or a hasty attack of 19:4 (your favour), which do you chose (as the USSR ofc).

Units
5 TACs are sent to the reserves this turn. 3 turns max, and they are down atleast 50 morale points.
We order the creation of 2 rifle divisions, 1 rifle brigade and 3 breakthrough artillery divisions this turn.
Our army grew by 106.000 troops this turn.

Partisans
23 partisan units are left after 5 attacks from the Axis. Our guys manage 9 acts of sabotague, while our pilots only manage 4 drops this turn.

[terje439]

Turn 162

Overall
The Axis once more fall back a few hexes, and as a result the number of attacks we are able to launch drops. We manage 5 held and 11 retreats for a total of 16 attacks. Losses are reported as;
Axis : 54.000 troops and 162 AFVs
USSR : 103.000 troops and 456 AFVs
As we get a total of 171.000 workers to the manpower pool this turn, it ends at 4.314.

Units
We send 10 TACs to the reserves this turn. We then order the construction of 3 breakthrough artillery divisions, 3 mechanized brigades and 3 tank brigades.
Our forces grew by 66.000 troops this turn.

Liberation
Voronezh is liberated this turn.

Partisans
23 units remain on the map after 11 are forced to retreat. A result of 8 sabotague missions and 5 supply drops are where we have been stuck for quite some turns now.

[Peltonx]

You will have to pick up tempo more if you have any chance to get to Berlin. I know your doing your best, but 15ish attacks per turn is not putting much of a dent in his OOB.

A min tempo by December 1943 should be around 20 attacks per turn. The won lose ratio can be as low as 50% as your replacements will easy support the loses.

Pelton

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

You will have to pick up tempo more if you have any chance to get to Berlin. I know your doing your best, but 15ish attacks per turn is not putting much of a dent in his OOB.

A min tempo by December 1943 should be around 20 attacks per turn. The won lose ratio can be as low as 50% as your replacements will easy support the loses.

Pelton

Agreed on the tempo. The issue for him is he has lost so much in pockets that he is still rebuilding the Red Army and HQ Zhukov by itself isn't going to generate the needed casualties. These rocket artillery divisions he's just now started won't be very effective for a while. Maybe after the Fall rasputitsa he can get some real momentum but he is likely facing too much in terms of land to recover and enemy to vanquish. Predicting an Axis victory here.