If he lands more supplies arent the CD guns going to have another pop on him unless he's captured the base?
How long can he maintain his beachhead without resupply/reinforcements?
if only supply is unloaded then he can do that in the face of CD guns as long as he wants to. I have never seen CD guns actually firing at ships only unloading supply even though a combat replay pops up to be finished instantly. Don't know if it's a bug or just my version of he game but all those invasions my opponents and me have done has the CD crews just watching the enemy happily unloading supplies.
Sorry but i'm 100% sure it doesn't work this way.
I had several only supplies convoys (reported in the combat report) composed only of xAKs that were targetted by CD guns both here at Aikita and at Hachinoe... and they got wrecked!
- While the timetable for this occupation is very tight, conceptually it shouldn't be. For example:
Normandy landings took place on June 6. They reached Paris August 25 (if the internet isn't lying to me). Distance from Caen to Paris is about 120 miles. So, speed of advance was about a mile and a half per day, on average. Not much to a WITP mindset, is it? Hachinohe to Akita obviously is about 90 miles, though the terrain is actually very rugged.
I guess rather than writing out a whole wall of text I would pose these questions, predicated on the idea that you won't capture either of the bases in the short term (I would hope that you will get at least one of them, in practice, but as a thought exercise) - I have no idea what the answers to them are, but maybe someone will:
- What is the daily supply usage of your units currently ashore, in combat and in bombardment?
- How long can you meet that need for, assuming no excessive losses in transport?
- What is the daily supply usage of the Japanese army presently engaged, in combat and in bombardment?
- How long can Japan meet that need for, assuming fuel and resource shipments to Japan remain fairly stable (since Japanese control of the Japan-NEI corridor remains pretty good)?
You can probably guess what I'm thinking about in asking them. You're worried about 60+ new Japanese divisions; it seems to me that they don't mean so much much if they don't have anything to eat or shoot - and, obviously, they're going to need a much greater amount of supplies to operate in combat than sitting around waiting for combat. Is it in Allied or Japanese ability to support a long-term fight logistically - and if it is, is there anything you can do that will change that?
Ok, in thinking about this I had a look around. I guess Japan at this point should control something like 10,000LI and 8000HI centers, so I guess supply production will be about 30,000t per day once you factor in oil refineries. Think you're burning up more than that per day?
If he lands more supplies arent the CD guns going to have another pop on him unless he's captured the base?
How long can he maintain his beachhead without resupply/reinforcements?
if only supply is unloaded then he can do that in the face of CD guns as long as he wants to. I have never seen CD guns actually firing at ships only unloading supply even though a combat replay pops up to be finished instantly. Don't know if it's a bug or just my version of he game but all those invasions my opponents and me have done has the CD crews just watching the enemy happily unloading supplies.
Sorry but i'm 100% sure it doesn't work this way.
I had several only supplies convoys (reported in the combat report) composed only of xAKs that were targetted by CD guns both here at Aikita and at Hachinoe... and they got wrecked!
could never make it happen in my games, neither me nor my opponents. [&:] And looking at your Akita landing I also can't find what you are saying above.
We know from the last bombardment that the raw non adjusted numbers are:
Attacking force 107396 troops, 1373 guns, 260 vehicles, Assault Value = 4073
Defending force 170682 troops, 3421 guns, 4216 vehicles, Assault Value = 6366
so the allies have a solid lead with 2300 AV at the situation. They have a big lead
in artillery and they have a very big lead in armored vehicles.
So now lets take a look at the filtered units. So decisions should not be done on just the raw amount of units cause there are a lot of engeneering stuff/AA units and so on.
I have removed all AA Units, Base forces, HQs and so on:
We have a:
77th Division
4th Tank Division
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
47th Division
42nd Division
70th Ind.Mixed Brigade
50th Ind.Mixed Brigade
19th Division
10th Ind.Mixed Regiment
18th Division
81st Division
86th Naval Guard Unit
4th Amphibious Brigade
2nd Depot Division
6th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
11th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
10th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
1st Mobile Field Artillery Regiment
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
31st Mountain Gun Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion
11th Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
vs
3rd Marine Division
5th USMC Tank Battalion
31st Infantry Division
93rd Infantry Division
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
29th Marine Regiment
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
77th Infantry Division
2nd British Division
22nd Marine Regiment
754th Tank Battalion
711th Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
18th Canadian Brigade
193rd Tank Battalion
IV Corps Engineer Battalion
7th Infantry Div /2
82nd (West African) Division
33rd Infantry Division
41st Infantry Division
1st Marine Division
43rd Infantry Div /3
134th Field Artillery Battalion
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
198th Field Artillery Battalion
251st Field Artillery Battalion
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XIV Corps Artillery
XI Corps Artillery
205th Field Artillery Battalion
7th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
181st Field Artillery Regiment
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
148th Field Artillery Battalion
168th Field Artillery Regiment
225th Field Artillery Battalion
97th Field Artillery Battalion
2/13th Field Regiment
147th Field Artillery Regiment
So the allies have a massive lead in armored units and a massive artillery lead. Which is quite important.
I assume that the two partial allied units are finally unloaded prior to the attack. We do not know any forts but lets assume there are lvl 6+ forts. As the biggest drawback this position is not open terrain. We have forest which gives a x2 modifier (i cannot crosscheck that in game right now, at least i hope it is not a x3 forest).
From the first japanese bombardement went quite well for the allies loss wise.
So as the reader wants he can skip the following thoughts as they are just some number crunching and theory crafting. As always that information might be right or might be wrong.
Some scenarios is tested to show how a shock attack works and especially what is important for it.
I will shortly describe how from my point of view a shock combat round works. First each side bombards each other. Then with a shock the defender combat units get a free fire round on the attacker. Then the combat units attack each other in a random way. The engine has some massive limits as it tends to concentrates the normal combat attacks on some units which get hit very massive and often with large stacks even a division can become completely disabled while other divisions only suffer 15 or 20 disabled squads.
Scen 1:
Defender 4 divisions = 1600 AV, some HQs, everything prepped and nothing else and level 6 forts. Open terrain.
Attacker 6 divisions = 2400AV, some HQs, everything prepped and nothing else.
So we assume a shock attack from the attacker. From my testing i would assume the adjusted AV around 4000 against 3500 or so, so just a 1:1. Attacker will bring a fort down, maybe two and will suffer around 2:1 disabled squads. If it is the first attack with fresh units usually there aren't many destroyed squads. If we take a deliberate attack it is even possible that you get better odds as the free firing passes disrupt a lot of units and your adjusted AV suffer.
Scen 2:
Defender: as Scen 1
Attacker: as Scen 1 + 30 different artillery units
So lets assume a shock here too. What happens now ? During the initial artillery phase the attacker hits much much harder. It suppresses a lot of combat power of the defender during the initial bombardment phase. (That does not mean the units are disabled after the combat, just suppressed during the combat as there is always some recovery). From my testing i would estimate the final adjusted odds as around 1500 - 1700 AV for the defender and as there isnt't as much disabling during the free firing pass around 5000 AV for the attacker which leads to around 3:1 for the attacker. Now if you do a paradrop too i would estimate the adjusted numbers to up to 7000 : 1600 which is a solid 4:1. That 4:1 does not mean that you will cause much more losses to the defender but usually the disabled squads drop down to 1:1 or even better for the allies AND you take down much more forts.
So end of theory crafting back to Akita.
What is the situation now?
- You have around 4 days unit reinforcements come in
- You have an advantage in artillery and a very big advantage in armor
- You are in good supply.
So if you do a deliberate attack now you might get a 2:1 or 3:1, if you do a para deliberate you might even get a 3:1 or 4:1. But the chances are low that you will get a high enough modifier to overcome the forts during the first attack. You will bring down the forts by 1 maybe 2 (and i am still no sure if it is possible to bring down forts more than one with a deliberate attack which does no capture the base, but as always i might be wrong). You will suffer quite a lot of disabled squads, as the enemy does maybe even lower than him. But you will accumulate disruption, usually more than your enemy. Then after the two turn round you can either continue to deliberate which can be quite close to cap the base then, try a shock which will be deadly as disrupted units take massive losses during a shock or just rest.
If you do a para deliberate your paratroopers will get completely mauled. I assume the other posters are right and you get a double attack value, but as the paras shock alone they will suffer most of the free firing pass. And i am quite sure cause i experienced it on my own, a single unit shocking with the rest deliberate is deadly. And then the paras are gone, which means no more shock drops in the future (if you dont drop a bde to get the drop bonus).
So if you do a classic shock drop. What will happen ? You have the edge on artillery and a big lead on armor (quantity and quality), you have a 2k AV advantage. So during the initial assault i expect quite a lot of disabled squads but not that much destroyed. But you play two day turns which sucks with shock attacks. On the second day it massively depends on the first day. If you get good odds like 3:1 or 4:1 you might bring 3 or 4 levels of forts down which help quite a lot during the second assault. You do not fight in open terrain which is quite a drawback as you can always assume and organic fort of level 3 which you cannot bring down. If the first day goes bad and you only get a 2:1 the second day will become deadly and you can easily suffer a 1500+ disabled squads.
You paras in that case will only suffer like the rest of your force, so you can pick them up again and drop them somewhere else in a few days/weeks.
So lets take a look at the close future. You have 2 very good positions (Hachinoe and Akita) and a weaker a little bit endangered blocking force. Whatever you do you will not lose the war in the next two days. You units are in good supply, you have naval superiority and you have your 2E/4E to cause havoc. Even if a combined bombardment with multiple BB Tfs, your 4E and your troops on bombardment attack only cause a 100 - 150 disabled combat squads each day, after 10 days it still are a 1000. Your units will build organic forts up to level 2/3 which helps quite a lot getting not pushed out of a hex. And if everything goes wrong you still can to a naval evac. It will get easier and easier as more of the combined fleet is sunk.
What is in addition important, if you recover your units, put them into reserve if possible and split them. Raeder is doing the same (look at some of the 4E bombing a 15 or so pages ago) where he splitted all his combat units for faster upgrade/recovery. This matter was discussed quite often and i do not see any gaminess in that.
So in the end, as always during the war there are hard decisions. It is your turn to either be a Patton („May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't.“) or to be an Italian ship captain which leaves the ship prior to the rest of the crew or you might end with your own little big horn because you underestimated your enemy.
So in the end (and accept my little sarcasm)
- deliberate attack -> lower losses, lower chances of capture,
- deliberate + paras -> lower losses, higher chances of capture, dead para units
- shock attack -> quite stupid without paras, highest losses, higher chances of capture
- shock + paras -> highest losses, highest chance to capture
- doing nothing -> no losses, no chances to achieve anything
- reembark the troops and shuttle them to east coast USA -> you cannot lose any unit anymore
- raise the white Italian battle flag (white cross on white background) -> no more decisions to make
I doubt that any decision may bring you in an situation where you do not have any more options and lose all your units.
As always you are the high command, you have to do a decision. I personally would try a shockdrop and even if it fails whenever i look into the mirror i would say -> "But at least i tried it". But listening to me in that case may not be very wise.
...i'm tempted, very tempted, to play all my cards now in a shock attack...
That would be a bad move, GreyJoy.
The others are right. You've got to take it slowly and surely. Deliberate infantry attacks after they recover disruption, air attacks on the a/f and port to keep damage up and prevent forts from being rebuilt by the engineers.
A few more days like you had in the air today and his air force will be completely shattered. Can you rope-a-dope him in the air with some CAP traps perhaps?
A deliberate attack works in your favor - better odds of not completely disrupting your army & the potential to wreck his, at least in the short term. If you can keep this up, it will force him to strip from elsewhere.
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
I would also come down on the side of a deliberate attack. Your quandry I think is you are worried about his reinforcing his positions. I think Raders quandry is knowing which site to reinforce. If you maintain a series of deliberate attacks at your different landing sites I think it will make Raders life extremly difficult.
You could also mount up the 3rd wave under CV cover and try a landing in Western Honshu he can't be strong everywhere.
Simple math tells me his IJN is wrecked other than KB...
I think the BC's CA's and Yamato are gone. Probably a bunch of CL's too. That leaves the KB, without much escort and depleted of most good pilots (although they have been away a bit, Rader probably trained up some more) and a bunch of big BB's. do we know where Mushashi, Nagato, Mutso, Hyauga, Ise, Fuso & Yamashiro are? I think one or 2 of these were sunk but that still leaves a bunch of big guns unaccounted for. As I said elsewhere. I suspect they were Raders Souther/Sea of Japan reaction force and I would not be surprised to see them chuuging up sometimes soon. Might be a one way trip but if Rader can slip them in at night they can cause a really bad day. We know the game engine favors Japanese night fighting over Allied radar so if Rader can get past some early air strikes he will F$@k up the landings
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
If you fly in paras the combat replay will read like it's a shock attack but your other troops will be on the right setting (deliberate)The paras will take it on the chin, but you won't wreck the other formations shock attacking against high forts.
I've been able to load supply only convoys with auxiliary only escorts to TROOPS ALREADY ON SHORE without CD interference. Of course, I've never seen that many CD guns in one hex either...
Do you have house rules against dropping paras (in force of course) in a non base hex?
I thought (maybe only way back when...) that moving from enemy occupied hex to enemy occupied hex was not possible. Or am I just remembering Avalon Hill ?[&:]
Simple math tells me his IJN is wrecked other than KB...
I think the BC's CA's and Yamato are gone. Probably a bunch of CL's too. That leaves the KB, without much escort and depleted of most good pilots (although they have been away a bit, Rader probably trained up some more) and a bunch of big BB's. do we know where Mushashi, Nagato, Mutso, Hyauga, Ise, Fuso & Yamashiro are? I think one or 2 of these were sunk but that still leaves a bunch of big guns unaccounted for. As I said elsewhere. I suspect they were Raders Souther/Sea of Japan reaction force and I would not be surprised to see them chuuging up sometimes soon. Might be a one way trip but if Rader can slip them in at night they can cause a really bad day. We know the game engine favors Japanese night fighting over Allied radar so if Rader can get past some early air strikes he will F$@k up the landings
I would agree with that 100%
Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.
Simple math tells me his IJN is wrecked other than KB...
I think the BC's CA's and Yamato are gone. Probably a bunch of CL's too. That leaves the KB, without much escort and depleted of most good pilots (although they have been away a bit, Rader probably trained up some more) and a bunch of big BB's. do we know where Mushashi, Nagato, Mutso, Hyauga, Ise, Fuso & Yamashiro are? I think one or 2 of these were sunk but that still leaves a bunch of big guns unaccounted for. As I said elsewhere. I suspect they were Raders Souther/Sea of Japan reaction force and I would not be surprised to see them chuuging up sometimes soon. Might be a one way trip but if Rader can slip them in at night they can cause a really bad day. We know the game engine favors Japanese night fighting over Allied radar so if Rader can get past some early air strikes he will F$@k up the landings
I would agree with that 100%
Hey!! Who let those worms out of their can?[8|][8|][8|]
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
Beppi, i thank you so much for the time devoted to my cause. Thanks my friend.
To all the other contributors...thanks guys...you've all been very helpfull, as always. And i owe you more than a piece of the successes i had so far in this match.
However, the die is cast. We have ordered a deliberate attack + a para landing, supported by 700 TBs (8k feet), 800 LBs, 700 DBs, and a series of naval bombardments.
I've chosen this option only because of the 2-days-turn...with a full shock attack the second day would have ended in a tragedy even if the first day was a good one.
If i well understood this method this will imply the distruction of my reinforced para division, with the bonus of having a doubled AV and saving my ordinary army from a bloodbath if things don't go well...
The paras can be sacrified imho... they are fully prepped for Aikita and i have no other place to use them (everything in Japan is very well garrisoned)...so their mission is to sacrifice themselfs there...
One more thing...Aikita is a clear terrain hex!!!
Castor... here's the evidence that convoys composed only by xAKs carrying supplies get shot by the CD guns...
from my last cbt report file...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Akita (117,55)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
xAK Cape Greig firing at 42nd Division
xAK Cape Greig fired at enemy troops
xAK Cape Stephens fired at enemy troops
xAK Cape Chalmers fired at enemy troops
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T94 Mtn Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T94 Mtn Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
12cm 10YT DP Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
8cm T88 DP Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Akita (117,55)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
87 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
xAK Admiral Nulton, on fire
xAK Cape Juby
xAK Cape Romano
xAK Admiral Nulton fired at enemy troops
xAK Cape Juby fired at enemy troops
xAK Cape Romano fired at enemy troops
xAK Admiral Nulton fired at enemy troops
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Akita (117,55)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Mormactern at 12,000 yards
8cm T88 DP Gun Battery engaging xAK Mormactern at 12,000 yards
xAK Cape Greig fired at enemy troops
xAK Cape Stephens fired at enemy troops
xAK Cape Chalmers fired at enemy troops
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T94 Mtn Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T94 Mtn Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm Infantry Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T94 Mtn Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
10cm T91 Howitzer battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
75mm T90 Field Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
12cm 10YT DP Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
12cm 10YT DP Gun battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
15cm T96 Howitzer battery firing at xAK Cape Chalmers
...and i could go on....all these xAKs were in 2 Big TFs composed only by xAKs with only supplies loaded...
At Hachinoe things got really worst for the xAKs carryin supplies....35 of them got sunk by CD guns...
