The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

my LRCAP cover over Aikita will be halved. 1600 fighters will guard Hakodate and 1550 will fly over Aikita (so probably i won't have more than 350 planes stationing there)...this is because only one amphib TF will remain at Aikita, with the rest of my fleet that will come back to Hakodate (and so it will need cover).
Yesterday defeats should have lowered enough most of japanese air squadrons....i expect big numbers also for today, but at least i hope their morale will be pretty low...
 
I just need to keep the air controll only for one more turn over Aikita...one more turn...
 
At Hachinoe my army is still fatigued and distrupted...[:o]...but at least it has already built almost everywhere 4 forts[:D]
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Well GJ - they didn't sign up to be supply clerks, they signed up to jump out of perfectly good airplanes....nobody said they wanted the easy jobs.


LOL [:D]

So true...[:'(]

Beppi is right...if i don't try the attack now i will regret for the rest of the match...i know...
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Simple math tells me his IJN is wrecked other than KB...
I think the BC's CA's and Yamato are gone. Probably a bunch of CL's too. That leaves the KB, without much escort and depleted of most good pilots (although they have been away a bit, Rader probably trained up some more) and a bunch of big BB's. do we know where Mushashi, Nagato, Mutso, Hyauga, Ise, Fuso & Yamashiro are? I think one or 2 of these were sunk but that still leaves a bunch of big guns unaccounted for. As I said elsewhere. I suspect they were Raders Souther/Sea of Japan reaction force and I would not be surprised to see them chuuging up sometimes soon. Might be a one way trip but if Rader can slip them in at night they can cause a really bad day. We know the game engine favors Japanese night fighting over Allied radar so if Rader can get past some early air strikes he will F$@k up the landings


True John, very true.... that's why i'm not staying one more moment than what is strictly necessary on those risky positions.... I'm taking all the precautions i could master... a safety belt around Aikita composed of subs, ASW TFs, DD Divisions and PT TFs...can't do much more in enemy waters...

If he comes tomorrow...well, he will find only 1 of my Amphib TF unloading supplies...not a single man to drown (sp?!)

However i fully agree. The Combined Fleet is halved, but not defeated. Still mighty and can still make a "Leyte Gulf" "coup de teatre"...so let's remain focused
Jzanes
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by Jzanes »

It looks like you are counting on the paradrop to double your AV. This is a false assumption that has been refuted time and again over the years. For some reason people continue to believe it even though it's been tested over and over and has been shown to be untrue.
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: kfsgo

Ok, in thinking about this I had a look around. I guess Japan at this point should control something like 10,000LI and 8000HI centers, so I guess supply production will be about 30,000t per day once you factor in oil refineries. Think you're burning up more than that per day?


Interesting view of the situation kfsgo....but i'm sure i cannot provide 30k supplies per day on my landing sites....i have plenty of supplies in hokkaido (4milions now) and nearly every week arrives a convoy with 400000 supplies and 200000 fuel....but the chain is long and i cannot hope to bring every day 15k supplies botoh at aikita and hachinoe...

I think i have to win with brute force here or accept the failure and contain the losses and swiitch back to a boring (but safer) strat bombing campaign...

Pity because i really think if i was a bit bolder and attacked before (even witih less prepared troops) i could have achieved the victoryo i'm looking for....
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Jzanes

It looks like you are counting on the paradrop to double your AV. This is a false assumption that has been refuted time and again over the years. For some reason people continue to believe it even though it's been tested over and over and has been shown to be untrue.


Oh....well...so we've lost our paras for nothing....

Thx for the info mate...i'll live with my mistakes and pay for them the price of blood (of my men[:'(])

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jeffk3510
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by jeffk3510 »

Not so fast GJ...
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by jeffk3510 »

ORIGINAL: Jzanes

It looks like you are counting on the paradrop to double your AV. This is a false assumption that has been refuted time and again over the years. For some reason people continue to believe it even though it's been tested over and over and has been shown to be untrue.


Do you care to elaborate, or show some sort of proof?
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beppi
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by beppi »

ORIGINAL: Jzanes

It looks like you are counting on the paradrop to double your AV. This is a false assumption that has been refuted time and again over the years. For some reason people continue to believe it even though it's been tested over and over and has been shown to be untrue.

Mhhhh, i cannot run a test right now. Can only do it in a few hours . But as far as i remember (and the last shock drop is not longer than a real life week ago) if you do a shock drop it works and clearly doubles your AV. Regarding to a shock+deliberate i am not 100% sure.

Last time i used it:

Bunch of divisions, around 5,4k unadjusted AV with a lot of arty attack around 3k japanese troops. And around 50% of the attacker AV were 50xp chinese corps.

Shock + paradrop resulted in 16,?k adjusted attacker AV.

Without a paratrooper bonus the maximum adjusted AV without shock bonus related to the rules should be around 6k. If you count all the bonis + the 100% prepping and so on. If you double it as a normal shock attack without paras it should not be higher than around 12k AV. But i had 16k AV.

Can add the combat log later if you want and i will conduct a test, cause now i want to know.

Usually as long as i did not conduct a systematic test i always hazard with arguing but i am quite sure that there is a paradrop bonus.
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crsutton
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

If he lands more supplies arent the CD guns going to have another pop on him unless he's captured the base?

How long can he maintain his beachhead without resupply/reinforcements?


if only supply is unloaded then he can do that in the face of CD guns as long as he wants to. I have never seen CD guns actually firing at ships only unloading supply even though a combat replay pops up to be finished instantly. Don't know if it's a bug or just my version of he game but all those invasions my opponents and me have done has the CD crews just watching the enemy happily unloading supplies.

Nope they will, at least in certain circumstances. I just resupplied an invasion of Wake with three LSTs with supply only and the few CD guns there shot them up, sinking two. Should have had a CA with them.
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Schlemiel
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by Schlemiel »

Perhaps it's related to artillery actually listed as cd units? I know Japan gets relatively few units designated as such and one spawns at Wake.
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Cribtop
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by Cribtop »

Three words: RAG-NA-ROK!

Good luck GJ. This will be a test of the para drop feature. I've received conflicting advice on whether it's real.
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Chickenboy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

If he lands more supplies arent the CD guns going to have another pop on him unless he's captured the base?

How long can he maintain his beachhead without resupply/reinforcements?


if only supply is unloaded then he can do that in the face of CD guns as long as he wants to. I have never seen CD guns actually firing at ships only unloading supply even though a combat replay pops up to be finished instantly. Don't know if it's a bug or just my version of he game but all those invasions my opponents and me have done has the CD crews just watching the enemy happily unloading supplies.

Nope they will, at least in certain circumstances. I just resupplied an invasion of Wake with three LSTs with supply only and the few CD guns there shot them up, sinking two. Should have had a CA with them.
They most definitely do shoot up supply TFs. In a Marianas scenario, my Allied opponent lost bunches of LCTs to the Saipan guns whilest attempting to resupply his Saipan invaders.
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Cribtop
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by Cribtop »

One stray comment.

When I first began reading this AAR, I mentally put the emphasis on the word "inexperience," like so:

The power of INEXPERIENCE.

Seeing the Ops GJ has pulled since the Hokkaido invasion, I read the title with the emphasis as follows:

The POWER of inexperience.

Not sure this makes sense outside of my bizarre mind, but I think you get the drift.
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Jzanes
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by Jzanes »

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

ORIGINAL: Jzanes

It looks like you are counting on the paradrop to double your AV. This is a false assumption that has been refuted time and again over the years. For some reason people continue to believe it even though it's been tested over and over and has been shown to be untrue.


Do you care to elaborate, or show some sort of proof?

seems like there was a thread testing this not so long ago but i couldn't find it after an hour of using the wonky search function. i guess we'll just have to see GJ test it for us...
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dekwik
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by dekwik »

Oh....well...so we've lost our paras for nothing....

I doubt it. In an attack on Sydney I saw better results when I used paras (albeit in much smaller numbers than you have.) The problem is that with two days turns, you need to drop them all on one or they take much more casualties on the second day, when your other troops may even be too disrupted to attack again. It's not a 100% improvement though. I'd guess 10% is more realistic.

This game always surprises me. Of course there's problems with various results and routines but it's often best to just think of it in real world terms. If I drop a Div of paras will it help my assault? Yes. Will it hurt my paras? Of course. Is it worth it? Depends on the Dice. I mean, the Gods of War. Same with supplying troops on a beach head. I'm pretty sure (anecdotal) there's a better chance of your ships taking much less damage in a re-supply op than if they were part of an amphibious first wave. Another die roll probably [;)]
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Three words: RAG-NA-ROK!

Good luck GJ. This will be a test of the para drop feature. I've received conflicting advice on whether it's real.

Yes mate, see you in Valhallah, for fight togheder in the day of Ragnarok!!!

[:D]
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

One stray comment.

When I first began reading this AAR, I mentally put the emphasis on the word "inexperience," like so:

The power of INEXPERIENCE.

Seeing the Ops GJ has pulled since the Hokkaido invasion, I read the title with the emphasis as follows:

The POWER of inexperience.

Not sure this makes sense outside of my bizarre mind, but I think you get the drift.

Thank you crb[:)]
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: dekwik
Oh....well...so we've lost our paras for nothing....

I doubt it. In an attack on Sydney I saw better results when I used paras (albeit in much smaller numbers than you have.) The problem is that with two days turns, you need to drop them all on one or they take much more casualties on the second day, when your other troops may even be too disrupted to attack again. It's not a 100% improvement though. I'd guess 10% is more realistic.

This game always surprises me. Of course there's problems with various results and routines but it's often best to just think of it in real world terms. If I drop a Div of paras will it help my assault? Yes. Will it hurt my paras? Of course. Is it worth it? Depends on the Dice. I mean, the Gods of War. Same with supplying troops on a beach head. I'm pretty sure (anecdotal) there's a better chance of your ships taking much less damage in a re-supply op than if they were part of an amphibious first wave. Another die roll probably [;)]
I completely agree with your vision. And that's exactly what i tell to myself any time things dont't go as they were supposed to do...it's the right "alea" of war!
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GreyJoy
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RE: HAIRY TO THE BONE

Post by GreyJoy »

...waiting for the turn...probably less than 30 minutes....
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