MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Lothrim]

I was wondering where the Moscow mil is hiding?. Is it hiding under the oil marker in Moscow ?
If so it should immidiateley rail to kiev, vitebsk or some other place where you intend to stand and die.

In general you will want germany to bruise himself on that mil every turn. Similarily with the Kharkow mil. Ideally they will die every turn only to pop right back up again. With Mil of cities you are going to lose the opposite is true. The Kiev MIL would be great in Leningrad, there it would probably sit in peace for a long time after Kiev is german controlled.

By railing into a critical hex you will become flipped, but ask yourself, will germany GS such a hex before he attacks it ?
Naturally he will do so and thus the effect of being flipped is not great since there is a 50% chance you would end up flipped anyway.

Generally it is ok to be flipped in places where you will make a stand no matter what. The risk is that germany will screen the strongpoint and move on, so pick that germany cannot advance without controlling.

[composer99]

Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk are good places for the Kharkov & Moscow MIL. The Germans need to secure those to advance unobstructed across the Dneipr.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Lothrim

I was wondering where the Moscow mil is hiding?. Is it hiding under the oil marker in Moscow ?
If so it should immidiateley rail to kiev, vitebsk or some other place where you intend to stand and die.

In general you will want germany to bruise himself on that mil every turn. Similarily with the Kharkow mil. Ideally they will die every turn only to pop right back up again. With Mil of cities you are going to lose the opposite is true. The Kiev MIL would be great in Leningrad, there it would probably sit in peace for a long time after Kiev is german controlled.

By railing into a critical hex you will become flipped, but ask yourself, will germany GS such a hex before he attacks it ?
Naturally he will do so and thus the effect of being flipped is not great since there is a 50% chance you would end up flipped anyway.

Generally it is ok to be flipped in places where you will make a stand no matter what. The risk is that germany will screen the strongpoint and move on, so pick that germany cannot advance without controlling.

Yup. He is still in Moscow. He just got reorganized at the start of the turn so can now rail out of it.

And thank you for reminding me how to choose which MIL units to use where. I'd completely forgotten I needed to pay attention to that.
-----
Right now I'm kind of waiting on the general forum philosophy on which to DOW first, Ge/It or Japan. So far, the vote is 2-1 to DOW Germany first.
-----
Edit: I'll tell you a secret: I've already run the game both ways, because I was curious. I have saves for both, so I can go whichever way you guys decide. [:)] But I won't tell you yet if either save includes a DOW that succeeded or not.

[Red Prince]

Just to make sure I got it right, here are the votes:

2 for Ge/It - Klydon, Steve
1 for Japan - composer99
-----
Edit: This doesn't include my vote, which was for the DOW on Japan first (and ws made before I actually ran both scenarios, and therefore should not be taken as any kind of indication of what the results of the DOWs are/were).
-----
2nd Edit: Once the "clock" runs down, which could be any time today or tomorrow (basically once the voting shows a real preference), I'll tell you what would have happened for both situations, not just the one that is chosen.

[Lothrim]

A vote from me to declare against germany.

[Red Prince]

For those of you convinced that the Axis has already won this game, I have some Production statistics for you. [:)] These statistics are based on the assumption that the following conditions will exist as of J/F '42:

1. Japan conquers China
2. Japan takes Vladivostok
3. Germany takes the other 6 Red Factories from the USSR
4. The USSR is conquered by Germany
5. Gemany aligns Turkey
6. The USA aligns both Mexico and Brazil
7. No factories or resources change hands for the rest of the game
8. The USA goes to Total War

Of these assumptions, here's how I rank them:

Near certain: #1, #2, #6, #8
Possible, but not certain: #5
Not impossible, but not likely: #3, #4
Ridiculous: #7

The reason I added #7 was to demonstrate why the Axis is in a much more difficult position than anyone might realize. Given all of these assumptions actually do happen, there are 6 years of useful production remaining, 1942-47. The first turn of 1948 is still useful, but let's just take these 36 turns for the "study". Here is a year by year breakdown of the maximum production for each side:

1942
Germany: 40 x 1.25 = 50
Italy: 14 x 1.25 = 18
Japan: 22 x 1.25 = 28
Axis per Turn/Year = 96/576

CW: 24 x 1.25 = 30
USA 45 x 1.5 = 56
Allies per Turn/Year = 86/516

1943
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 1.75 = 79
Allies per Turn/Year = 115/690

1944
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2 = 90
Allies per Turn/Year = 126/756

1945
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2.25 = 101
Allies per Turn/Year = 137/822

1946
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2.25 = 101
Allies per Turn/Year = 137/822

1947
Germany: 40 x 1.5 = 60
Italy: 14 x 1.5 = 21
Japan: 22 x 1.5 = 33
Axis per Turn/Year = 114/684

CW: 24 x 1.5 = 36
USA 45 x 2.25 = 101
Allies per Turn/Year = 137/822

1942-44
Axis total Production: 1944
Allied total Production: 1962

1942-47
Axis total Production: 3996
Allied total Production: 4428

That difference of 432 BP means an average of a 12 BP advantage for the Allies every turn for those 6 years. That's an extra 3 x FTR-2 every turn for 6 years, or the equivalent in other forces. The reason I mention the FTR-2 is that the Allied air forces will soon be much stronger than the Axis counterparts.

Also, by the time the Axis has reached these goals, it is on the defensive (unless it tries a Sea Lion or an invasion of the Americas!). Think of all the O-chits that the USA can produce with 101 BP per turn. O-chit is short for Offensive Chit, and they are much more useful when attacking than they are when trying to slow down an attack. This is why I say that item #7 on the list above is "ridiculous". With so much territory to cover, and with a Production advantage that doesn't actually exist, the Allies need only sit back and pick their targets in order to win this war.

Of course, that depends on what you define as "Victory". MWiF played in Solitaire or Hot-Seat Mode defines it as the side with the most Victory Cities at the end of the game. At the moment, the Axis leads by 9 (38-29), and will gain 7 more under the assumptions listed above. That would give them a 45-21 victory (-1 for the Allies by aligning both Mexico and Brazil to the USA). That means that in order to claim victory, starting from J/F 1942, the Allies need to re-take 13 Victory Cities to win 34-32.

The starting numbers for Victory Cities are: Allies 45.5, Axis 21.5

If the Axis can claim 16.5 Victory Cities in the first 10 turns, and an assumed 23.5 in the first 14 turns, I don't see why the Allies can't take back 13 of them in the last 40 turns of the game, do you? In a worst-case scenario, they could probably easily mount an invasion that would take both Oslo and Stockholm before the Axis could respond. That's 2 cities right there, leaving just 11 more to take. Here are the options:

[Centuur]

DoW Germany with the USA. You are in positions there and you need those TRS to be free for use ASAP, to start moving air and land units across the Atlantic. You aren't in a position to stay ashore on the European mainland and to lose an HQ is foolish, as is keeping a TRS/AMPH doing nothing but staying in a sea area to make sure the HQ can retreat (and that TRS might be subject to air attacks or a naval exploit by the Italians (or Germans). The USA hasn't got that much sealift yet (which is understandable), so they musn't put that in danger. Imagine: loosing two TRS to the Axis... Terrible... So no invasions of the European mainland in the surprise impulse, IMHO.
However: if you start building up an US army in Spanish Morocco together with French forces and a CW airforce, you can draw a lot of Axis units toward that region, since the Axis need to defend Morocco. Two US HQ's can do something, can't they. Don't forget those nice CBV the French get for free when you capture Morocco and Algeria... I would start building up an army there. Of course: the Azores should be cleared of the German presence...

[Red Prince]

Looks like a 4-1 vote right now for Germany/Italy.

That's good for getting things prepared for an attack on Europe. Two things to note, though: Kwajalein is undefended with a USA MAR in Pago Pago stacked with a TRS . . . and anticipating an attack on Japan first (and later than M/J '41), my entire CV fleet is in either San Diego or Honolulu. There's a very good reason for this. I wanted to keep my Pearl Harbor fleet there so I could continue to adjust the Tension rolls, but I needed to swap out old CVP for new ones when the old ones dropped down a class at the beginning of the year. That meant using 3 impulses in all, to rebase the right CVP onto the CVs in San Diago (1), move 2 CVs from San Diego to Honolulu and 1 the other way (2) and then to do the reverse (3). Having only 4 impulses total during the first 2 turns made it so that I couldn't move those 3 CVs from San Diego back to Norfolk.

Don't know if this matters, but I probably should have mentioned it before the voting started.
-----
Edit: You can be sure that Japan won't leave Kwajalein empty once the USA is at war -- with anyone!

[Orm]

As the situation looks in USSR it is more important for US go to war with Germany. Germany is much more dangerous than Japan. Besides, once US is at war with Germany US can go for unlimited naval warfare. As Japan I would probably DOW US at some point then. Germany has no reason to DOW USA. The suprise invasions US can do against Germany has limited impact.

Therefore I vote for a DOW on Germany.

[Red Prince]

Okay, it looks like the votes are in. Germany and Italy, beware!!!
-----
I'll show you what would have happened if the USA went ahead with a DOW on Japan first, before I get to what actually happens with a DOW attempt on Germany and Italy. I actually ran this one first, fully intending to play it out, because it's what I thought everyone would expect . . . but as soon as a few voices started saying to DOW the EuroAxis first, I decided to stop in my tracks and let you guys decide.

The result of the DOW on Japan was a success:

USA attempts to DOW Japan at 60% odds, Roll = 2 = Success; USE-2 (3 chits moved, 16 of 18 [4], 3 of 17 [1], 13 of 16 [4])
USA moves no other chits
USA calls out its Reserves
USA sets up MIL in Washington and LA, MAR and MOT in Long Beach
USA aligns Panama; USE-6 (no chit)
USA sets up CAV and 5 CP in Panama City

But one of the side-effects took me completely off-guard. It moved the chances to DOW Germany and/or Italy down to 20%! That's because it raised Tension too high. It also would have meant that the USA probably wouldn't dare to pick any Options again until Entry was up again. In the image below, I've marked all of the most important options that would have been devastating not to pick soon.

If this had been a "real" game, it would have been a disaster. No refunds, folks. No going back. In this case, the USA would have actually benefitted from the German DOW on China by getting an extra chit this turn, but I fully expect Kunming to fall, so that extra chit would end up in the Ja Entry Pool for all future turns. Depending on how things played out, it might have set the USA back so far that Total War could not be reached until early 1942.
-----
Below is how things could have turned out, if the USA DOWed Japan first. My next post will be about what actually happened, with the double-DOW on Germany and Italy . . .

[Red Prince]

And now for what really happened:

The DOW on Germany and Italy also succeeded!

USA attempts to DOW Germany and Italy at 60% odds, Roll = 3 = Success;
USE-8 (2 chits moved, 5 of 8 [2], 2 of 7 [1]) Germany
USE-5 (3 chits moved, 6 of 6 [6], 2 of 5 [1], 4 of 4 [3]) Italy
USA moves no other chits
USA calls out its Reserves
USA sets up MIL in Washington and LA, MAR and MOT in Philadelphia
USA aligns Panama; USE-7 (no chit)
USA sets up CAV and 5 CP in Panama City

In this case, the Japanese got a huge boost up to 90% chances . . . unless Japan realizes that the failure to move any other chits is an indication that the USA likes its odds as they are. And Japan does realize that.

So, Germany and Italy are now at war with the USA . . . and I'm still going to select a Combined Action for the United States, because it will allow me to make 2 invasions I think you'll like. At the very least, they will show that I can be tricky with the Allies offensively, given the chance. It's just defense that gives me trouble. But I'll show and explain that later. The key is that I need the Combined to take advantage of the surprise impulse and to set up some interesting options for the future.

I'll also give you a "sneek peak" at how Japan will respond (since I've had a lot of time to think about it). They won't. Not directly, anyway. They'll take the Naval Action that they were going to take anyway, send a unit to Kwajalein, prepare more invasions, set up naval defenses, and let the USA make the DOW. I should be able to limit the damage the USA can do, and I'd rather have the unlimited gearing limits than give them to the USA to use with 53 BP to spend. The only way a Japanese DOW would have value is if it could get me the Philippenes easily, while still allowing me to reinforce Kwajalein and perform other attacks later in the turn the way Japan wanted to. Since that isn't possible, I'll let the USA have its fun.
-----
Below is what actually happened, based on your voting:

[composer99]

Obsolete post deleted.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Given how quickly US entry builds up once the US is in the war, you'd be surprised how quickly that number can bounce back.

Perhaps, but I certainly didn't like it when I saw it, and it would definitely have prevented the USA from going to Total War this turn, and probably the next one, too.

[Centuur]

It's really foolish that I didn't realise that with the Japanese Entry being so high at 70, that the choice of who to declare war on had to be taken on this issue alone. By DoW'ing the Euroaxis, the entry with the Japanese is lowered in favour of tension there and that's exactly what the USA needed to make sure he can go to total war in this turn.
I think almost everybody here was totally focused on giving the USSR a break and therefore wanted the USA to DoW the Germans. Of course a valid thing to consider, but this sure means that you always need to calculate out the opportunity for the USA to declare war on the other party, before making a decision who to DoW. This could have resulted in a huge mistake, simply for not making a calculation... Terrible indeed...

Well: the Japanese aren't going to DoW the USA? I would do so in the next impulse, since as the Japanese I know the chanche of getting DoW'ed on by the USA is now so high, I won't want to get surprised. I know that the entry level of Japan is higher than it was of the Euroaxis. I also know that the tension level is at least 35 or more. If you add those together: DoW with Japan. Simply to prevent any nasty surprise invasions by that US MAR and to prevent any US SUB's which may get in range of my precious convoy points and start pounding them.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

It's really foolish that I didn't realise that with the Japanese Entry being so high at 70, that the choice of who to declare war on had to be taken on this issue alone. By DoW'ing the Euroaxis, the entry with the Japanese is lowered in favour of tension there and that's exactly what the USA needed to make sure he can go to total war in this turn.
I think almost everybody here was totally focused on giving the USSR a break and therefore wanted the USA to DoW the Germans. Of course a valid thing to consider, but this sure means that you always need to calculate out the opportunity for the USA to declare war on the other party, before making a decision who to DoW. This could have resulted in a huge mistake, simply for not making a calculation... Terrible indeed...

Thanks. I'm glad somebody said this. [:)]

Well: the Japanese aren't going to DoW the USA? I would do so in the next impulse, since as the Japanese I know the chanche of getting DoW'ed on by the USA is now so high, I won't want to get surprised. I know that the entry level of Japan is higher than it was of the Euroaxis. I also know that the tension level is at least 35 or more. If you add those together: DoW with Japan. Simply to prevent any nasty surprise invasions by that US MAR and to prevent any US SUB's which may get in range of my precious convoy points and start pounding them.

As the Japanese, I also know that the USA isn't in a position to use the Surprise to his advanatage. In fact, the only way to keep things safe for the convoys is not to DOW the USA and take a Naval impulse to put his SUBs in Manila out of Supply. The Marines in Pago Pago won't be able to reach anything vital, nor will the fleet in Honolulu -- without being obliterated afterwards. The core of the Japanese fleet isn't close enough to them right now. I'd rather force the USA to risk that 10% chance of not going to war and get unlimited gearing limits.

If I did DOW the USA, I'd feel compelled to do something stupid, like use a Combined Action to get troops into the Philippenes. The USA gains nothing by making the DOW. It just isn't ready for war yet, and Japan gains more by sticking to its own plans.

[composer99]

The USA gains nothing by making the DOW.

Other than an extra 10 bp/turn and the chance to align Mexico & Brazil, of course.

That said, it should be be a long-ish turn, so the US doesn't have to try to DoW right away. If an extra impulse (or two) makes the difference in being able to do something effective during surprise and not, then take the time. Just make sure to attempt it this turn.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The USA gains nothing by making the DOW.

Other than an extra 10 bp/turn and the chance to align Mexico & Brazil, of course.

That said, it should be be a long-ish turn, so the US doesn't have to try to DoW right away. If an extra impulse (or two) makes the difference in being able to do something effective during surprise and not, then take the time. Just make sure to attempt it this turn.

Well, that's a problem for the USA. Once they see what Japan has planned (a plan which can be altered to annoy the USA), the Americans will be forced to make the DOW.

Yes, there's the 10 BP per turn. I was speaking strictly from a military point of view, but I think you knew that. [;)]
-----
Anyway, this shot below is why I like to have as many Strat Bombers as I can with the CW as early as I can. I put this one on the map this turn just to have an extra LND to throw at the Germans, not expecting any real use out of it. Well, I think the pilot decided to thumb his nose at me for leaving him in the Reserve Pool for over a year.

[Red Prince]

Driven by hope that low odds rolls might succeed (after hearing about the success at Lille), the Soviets decided to try to put Guderian out of business, halting the German plans for Persia this turn.

So much for Russian Pilots . . .

[Red Prince]

I'm working on Soviet land moves at the moment (railed the Moscow MIL to Kiev), so it'll probably be a while before I post what I've done, and then I'll likely leave it until morning.
-----
Just to ease your curiosity about what I have planned for the USA this impulse, I've got an invasion of the Azores set up and another one in Denmark. The second one, if I do it right, is combined with the return of the CW HQ-I Alexander from Murmansk. He set sail into the North Sea (with a solid defensive fleet this time), and will be ready to land where the invading forces end up next impulse -- and before the Germans can get rid of the invaders. With any luck, and a little planning, he might be able to stick it out long enough to divert a good number of German forces away from the USSR.

Anyway, I'll post my expected moves for the Soviets a little later. It's dinner time here.

[Red Prince]

Here's how the Persian Front is shaping up. The moves for this impulse have been made in the image below, and are indicated by the bigger arrows. The smaller arrows show the moves I expect to make next impulse, if all goes well.