The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[EUBanana]

A cap on raid size is probably the easiest solution, so there's a hardcoded coordination cap effectively. Ideally one which dovetails with the hardcoded CAP... cap. ([;)]).

So then these enormous and difficult to model huge battles become 3 or 4 smaller battles - and we know that the smaller battles work OK.

Sounds like a fairly delicate and involved coding operation for michaelm though...

[Canoerebel]

In my book, no matter what happens in this game from this point forward, GJ is already the victor (and has been since Hokkaido).  My reasoning:

1.  Scenario Two gives Japan lots of advantages.
2.  Rader has really worked the House Rules to his advantage and continues to do so.
3.  Against a newb, rader pulled out all the stops, taking out all China and almost all of India (almost all of which happened before people became aware of this game and could step in to lend GJ a hand from time to time).
4.   In other "pulling out all the stops" things, rader did stuff like mass scores of AA units in a single hex in India and march five divisions across the Owen Stanley Mountains.  Whether that kind of activity is kosher is debatable, but not as much when the opponent is a newb in my book.
5.  GJ maintained a positive outlook and learned very quickly.  He cut his teeth in the Solomons and performed very well.
6.  The invasion of Hokkaido was brilliant.  I'm sure he had plenty of advice from experienced players, but he showed the good sense to implement the advice and did so successfully.
7.  He hasn't played perfectly by any means.  He's still relatively new to the game and thus (until recently) hadn't suffered the kind of devastating carrier-battle loss that tends to make experienced players much more cautious.  Thus, he can be impulsive at times.  He's learning though.  I think he's shown the willingness to dive into minutae that suggests he will soon become a very high caliber player.

Overall, taking all factors into consideration, GJ won this game.

[Schlemiel]

There are no moral victories, only hard won lessons. The game is not over yet; we shall see how it ends.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Someone needa tell Rader he lost the game after trashing the U.S. CVs [:D] Take a photo please ^^

[vicberg]

ORIGINAL: hades1001

So you really think 300 fighters(1/3 of the cap) in the air only kills 50-60 planes before they reach the torpedo release point is reasonable? In early war stage 100 cap will do the same job, if not shot down more.

And by bringing in a wave of 600+ planes it's hopeless to defend now matter how many planes you shot down. The real problem is the number of planes in a single coordinated wave. It's really sci-fi numbers. I guess someone is right. This is not war in the Pacific, it's STAR WAR!

Ok, that's a two way street.

This is a typical raid that GJ has been launching. By my count, that's around 800 planes.

Allied aircraft
Liberator II x 15
Liberator B.VI x 18
Mosquito FB.VI x 10
Spitfire VIII x 47
Wellington Ic x 18
Wellington B.X x 30
B-24D1 Liberator x 15
B-24J Liberator x 119
B-25D1 Mitchell x 47
B-25H Mitchell x 49
B-25J1 Mitchell x 3
B-29-1 Superfort x 110
P-38H Lightning x 10
P-38J Lightning x 3
P-39N1 Airacobra x 4
P-40N5 Warhawk x 13
P-40N26 Warhawk x 5
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 8
F4U-1A Corsair x 67
F6F-3 Hellcat x 206
F6F-5 Hellcat x 119
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 31
PB4Y-2 Privateer x 12
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 41

This was CAP over Akita,. Close to 1000 planes.

Allied aircraft
Mosquito FB.VI x 19
Spitfire VIII x 123
P-38H Lightning x 13
P-38J Lightning x 25
P-39N2 Airacobra x 12
P-39N1 Airacobra x 5
P-40N5 Warhawk x 47
P-40N26 Warhawk x 8
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 52
P-51B Mustang x 42
F4U-1A Corsair x 182
F6F-3 Hellcat x 571
F6F-5 Hellcat x 209

Want to reduce coordination or raid size. Goes accross the board, Allies and Japanese. Both sides have been benefitting from current rules. Saying now that this strike was somehow unfair compared to everything else going on? That's a hmmm. Or are you saying that only the Allies should be able to coordinate large raids, when the Japanese are in their home territory and every japanese pilot knows intimately where they will be assembling the strike and exactly where the Allied carriers are located?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In my book, no matter what happens in this game from this point forward, GJ is already the victor (and has been since Hokkaido).  My reasoning:

1.  Scenario Two gives Japan lots of advantages.
2.  Rader has really worked the House Rules to his advantage and continues to do so.
3.  Against a newb, rader pulled out all the stops, taking out all China and almost all of India (almost all of which happened before people became aware of this game and could step in to lend GJ a hand from time to time).
4.   In other "pulling out all the stops" things, rader did stuff like mass scores of AA units in a single hex in India and march five divisions across the Owen Stanley Mountains.  Whether that kind of activity is kosher is debatable, but not as much when the opponent is a newb in my book.
5.  GJ maintained a positive outlook and learned very quickly.  He cut his teeth in the Solomons and performed very well.
6.  The invasion of Hokkaido was brilliant.  I'm sure he had plenty of advice from experienced players, but he showed the good sense to implement the advice and did so successfully.
7.  He hasn't played perfectly by any means.  He's still relatively new to the game and thus (until recently) hadn't suffered the kind of devastating carrier-battle loss that tends to make experienced players much more cautious.  Thus, he can be impulsive at times.  He's learning though.  I think he's shown the willingness to dive into minutae that suggests he will soon become a very high caliber player.

Overall, taking all factors into consideration, GJ won this game.

+1

Both players relaxed at critical points in the game. Both payers lost initiative at those points. This is one of those amazing struggles, like a triple overtime basketball game, or a soccer game that goes to a penalty shootout, where each player takes a pounding and keeps scrapping out some successes in order to give it right back.

I'm just ready for more. Bring on '45!

[hades1001]

yeah the coordinate system makes both side suffer while we can tweak it and make it better.

So why we have to suffer? We can change the game to a better direction, yes we can!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: vicberg
Want to reduce coordination or raid size. Goes accross the board, Allies and Japanese. Both sides have been benefitting from current rules. Saying now that this strike was somehow unfair compared to everything else going on? That's a hmmm. Or are you saying that only the Allies should be able to coordinate large raids, when the Japanese are in their home territory and every japanese pilot knows intimately where they will be assembling the strike and exactly where the Allied carriers are located?

Absolutely agree. Both sides have been benefitting from current rules / strike coordination and the same engine effect. Keeping mum when the engine benefits you and crying aloud when you get smooshed by same is missing the other side of the argument.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: hades1001

yeah the coordinate system makes both side suffer while we can tweak it and make it better.

So why we have to suffer? We can change the game to a better direction, yes we can!

You don't. If you don't like the existing basic engine, there are all sorts of mods out there (some mentioned previously) that can be tailored to your tastes. Bust out the editor and have at it.

If you're suggesting that ALL are suffering under the current build and that the Devs / programmers need to change something based upon this singular example, I would sharply disagree with your conclusion.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Someone needa tell Rader he lost the game after trashing the U.S. CVs [:D] Take a photo please ^^

[Grfin Zeppelin]

[vicberg]

Both players have won.  This is the most watched AAR.  It's been exciting.  There's been epic battles accross the board with both players benefiting from the same rules.  The fact that Radar didn't take it easy is on GJ is a good thing for GJ.  He's learned.  Playing as Japanese, you don't play to "win".  What is winning?  Auto-victory?  Has happened maybe a handful of times in the thousands of games played.  Holding out until 46?  That's a [font=calibri]pyrrhic victory.   The Japanese player knows he's going to lose.  It's having fun along the way and it's obvious that both have had fun and so have we, watching it.  [/font]

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
If you're suggesting that ALL are suffering under the current build and that the Devs / programmers need to change something based upon this singular example, I would sharply disagree with your conclusion.

Michaelm has already tweaked it for the high density of aircraft in 1944.

I don't really see why more tweaks, also all about the high density of aircraft in 1944, are out of the question. As I'm playing in 1944 myself now I'd be rather eager to have it tweaked asap, rather than too late. CAP not engaging due to a hardcoded limit on effective CAP size is just silly. And thats what it does. The limit has been increased, but as any developer will know increasing limits like that is not really fixing the problem, because chances are it won't be too long before your new limit is also breached.

It's nothing to do with favouring either side. It's about making adjustments to combat which apparently most players never get to and so have not been stress tested to death, like the first six months of 1942 has been.

That said I'm not seeing anything like these numbers of a/c in February 44. I guess these massive concentrations must come later, either that or I dont' concentrate nearly as much.

[hades1001]

It's really a big decision to give up a 1 year(real time) game and start a new one.
I don't know all this issues when I start the game. Feel like I was trapped.

And of course I can adapt to this game engine and just exploit to my advantages. But that's not the point, the point is the stock game can be better and that's why Michael release so many patches for. To fix bugs and tweak wrong things, right?

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: hades1001

yeah the coordinate system makes both side suffer while we can tweak it and make it better.

So why we have to suffer? We can change the game to a better direction, yes we can!

You don't. If you don't like the existing basic engine, there are all sorts of mods out there (some mentioned previously) that can be tailored to your tastes. Bust out the editor and have at it.

If you're suggesting that ALL are suffering under the current build and that the Devs / programmers need to change something based upon this singular example, I would sharply disagree with your conclusion.

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: hades1001
It's really a big decision to give up a 1 year(real time) game and start a new one.

If it really is due to the CAP cap then a mod wouldn't fix it anyway, it doesn't matter what stats you give your aircraft if the code isn't actually having them engage.

Da Babes isn't really going to change much as you hit the CAP with CVTFs, reducing air support isn't going to change that.

[crsutton]

One quick point and then one of my lengthy discourses. [;)]

All this discussion about CAP but no discussion about flak. Not to say that an exposed GJ would not have been hurt but I think the most sad aspect of any late war battle is the weakness of Allied flak. Tankers and AKs are one thing but these attacks are against the Allied "A" team at a time when flak should be very deadly and account for a key number of aircraft kills.

Now for my take on the events. I have to admit that I am only an average player when it comes to optimizing my forces to take advantage of a particular situation. I just don't have the organizational skills to compete with a player like Rader on the tactical level. Quite frankly, in a similar situation as this last battle, I would have fared much worse as I tend to set my CAP on seat of the pant hunches and for what I feel would be historically correct. My solution is to compensate by playing my game much more conservatively to compensate for my tactical weak points.

This is in no way a critique of Greyjoys very aggressive style. He has done amazing things in this game and the knowledge that I have gained just by following his AAR has been incredible. Both from the game play and from all the very good input. So, I will not offer any tactical advice but give a few key overall strategic observations that I think might help for the "average" Allied player. And open the floor for comment. This is for scen #2 and consider that you are playing a good opponent.

1. Patience is a virtue. If you are in it for the campaign then you are looking to close the deal in 45 or 46 depending on events.

2. You won't win by wiping out the Japanese air force. However, given a good base network and a deliberate advance the Allied airforce should always be able to win at the point of attack.

3. Traditonal avenues, and historic routes, are not a bad way to go. Japan is always in the fight as long as they an strong economy. The best plan is to destroy Japanese oil and cut off lines of supply and reinforcementment to the home islands and hurt Japanese production as best you can before considering major operations against the Japanese home land. This does not mean that opportunities to exploit mistakes should not be taken. (We all dream of taking Hokkaido in 44) The Allied player should always be looking for an exploit that will gain a foothold in critical areas. Take bases that force the Japanese player to react and offer opportunities to inflict damage-especially to the IJN gives the Japanese player flexibility. Look for safe bases. After 1943 you are pretty safe from most counter invasions.

4. You absolutely need to have multiple points of attack to disperse Japanese resources. Only one avenue and the Japanese can react and defend.

5. Be ready to throw out most preconceptions. Be ready to adjust to the realities of the game and don't cling to what you expected or wanted to happen. (For expample, I have pretty much abandoned any notion of my 44 sub fleet bringing Japanese commerce to its knees..[:@])

6. The Aleutian route and Central Pacific may not be such a bad way to go. Versus an intact Allied fleet, it is hard for the Japanese player to defend islands because it is easier to isolate them and neutralize LBA.

7. No matter what your principal route of attack you have to put pressure on Japanese oil if only to force the Japanese player to use forces needed elsewhere to defend it.

8. Avoid major land campaigns where you can't cut off the flow of supply and reinforcments. The Japanese army is just too large.

9. What the hell, wait for the Soviets.....

9. If you are playing guys like Alfred, Nemo, Pzb and a few others, then think about winning in 1946 and plan on using every A-bomb that you can get your hands on. Don't fret about victory levels just do it because it needs to be done.....[:D]

[EUBanana]

Maybe the solution is to split CVs up into chunks with roughly 300 fighters in each chunk. Perhaps the Death Star is not the way forward after all. You might lose a chunk, but at least their CAP would be at full effectiveness.

[GreyJoy]

Heades, sorry but i don't agree 100% with you.
Despite i've been hit hard this time i don't think we're far from an acceptable combat model for the late 1944/1945 big air battles.
 
With the new patch, imho, the system works great.
Now some bombers get through but the CAP is able to tangle pretty well the attackers before they deliver their ordinances.
 
This very last battle is probably a bit out of statistics...i repeat that i firmly believe i have been particularly unlucky with the ineffectiveness of my CAP over CVs, while the LRCAP over the invasion fleet worked perfectly with only 1 (ONE) torp scored against a CL.
 
In the other circustances we've tested (over Hachinoe, Over Aikita etc tec) the new patch works and the CAP works too.
 
here...well...were something didn't work...Rader too told me he was very very surprised and he even tought i had 90% of my fighters on LRCAP over my invasion fleet, leaving only 10% on CAP (while, as we know, was exactly the opposite)...
 
We cannot know what really happened...let's imagine the japs were favoured by a cloud coverage or something like that...and that they had the luck of finding the 70% of the available CAP fighters during their re-fueling process (bad decision by the Admiral who allowed the bulk of the fighter force to refuel at the same time).
 
Now, if you all please, let's bring the whole discussion about game mechanics and game flaws to the tech support and let's keep on fighting...the road is even longer now so we all need to focus on the strategic situation and decide what to do[:D]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In my book, no matter what happens in this game from this point forward, GJ is already the victor (and has been since Hokkaido).  My reasoning:

1.  Scenario Two gives Japan lots of advantages.
2.  Rader has really worked the House Rules to his advantage and continues to do so.
3.  Against a newb, rader pulled out all the stops, taking out all China and almost all of India (almost all of which happened before people became aware of this game and could step in to lend GJ a hand from time to time).
4.   In other "pulling out all the stops" things, rader did stuff like mass scores of AA units in a single hex in India and march five divisions across the Owen Stanley Mountains.  Whether that kind of activity is kosher is debatable, but not as much when the opponent is a newb in my book.
5.  GJ maintained a positive outlook and learned very quickly.  He cut his teeth in the Solomons and performed very well.
6.  The invasion of Hokkaido was brilliant.  I'm sure he had plenty of advice from experienced players, but he showed the good sense to implement the advice and did so successfully.
7.  He hasn't played perfectly by any means.  He's still relatively new to the game and thus (until recently) hadn't suffered the kind of devastating carrier-battle loss that tends to make experienced players much more cautious.  Thus, he can be impulsive at times.  He's learning though.  I think he's shown the willingness to dive into minutae that suggests he will soon become a very high caliber player.

Overall, taking all factors into consideration, GJ won this game.

Yep agreed. Greyjoy could have played very conservative after taking Hokkaido and won the game in 45 with no problem. I am sure Rader knows that and will give him credit for it. He won when he pulled it off. Everything after than was really an experiment to please his rabid fan base as we urged him on to push the edge of the envelope.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

I admire your fighting spirit GreyJoy. I have the utermost respect to people who continue their PBEM regardless what happens to the point both can agree its finished.
Since this game is a HUGE time comitment nothing is more frustrating than an opponent who ragequits the game because it goes not his/her way.
Carry on and thanks for this great AAR