MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

So, do I risk the attack on Kiev? Or do I make no attacks this impulse?

It's up to you. If you feel lucky, go right ahead. [;)]

[Red Prince]

You know what? I like taking risks. It's gotten me this far, so I'm going to go ahead and do it, stupid as it may be . . . (shiver).

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

You know what? I like taking risks. It's gotten me this far, so I'm going to go ahead and do it, stupid as it may be . . . (shiver).

Brave man... Very brave man...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

You know what? I like taking risks. It's gotten me this far, so I'm going to go ahead and do it, stupid as it may be . . . (shiver).

Brave man... Very brave man...

Insane is more like it. [:D] But I am playing the role of that particular dictator, so insanity is just a bit of role-playing . . . yeah, that must be it . . .

I'm working on setting up my Japanese attacks right now. A lot of invasions, a few on the insane side of things. I'll have it all up soon.

[Red Prince]

Sorry that took so long to set up, but there were a lot of attacks/invasions to sort through, 8 in all:



And the results:

Attack on Kiev: Assault, Fractional Odds .960 (No), Roll = 9+1 = 10 = */2S (Not Converted, MIL and AT destroyed)
Attack on Coconada: Assault, Fractional Odds .074 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = */2S
Attack on Kuching: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S
Attack on Brunei: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S
Attack on Aparri, Assault, Roll = 1+1 = 2 = 1/- (INF destroyed)
Attack on Philippines [104, 152]: Assault, Fractional Odds .376 (Yes), Roll = 5+1 = 6 = */2S
Attack on Vladivostok: Assault, Roll = 8 = */2S (SUB rebases to Petropavlovsk, CP intercepted using CL Katori, Roll: 4, Allied Roll: 8
.....Japan spends 8 Surprise Points to Increase Columns
.....Japan Destroys 3 CP
Attack on Guam: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S

As soon as I saw the Fractional Odds roll for Kiev, I was sure that I'd screwed up. [:(] But the German luck just seems to keep on holding. I selected the Siberian INF to save, because with so many INF left in the Force Pools now, it would be a long shot to get it again, and obviously I'll be rebuilding the Moscow MIL ASAP. Big sigh of relief when I saw that high roll here, let me tell you.

The reason it took so long to get through these is that I added Shore Bombardment and Ground Support to the non-Automatic invasions, but got confused with the weather and jungle hex for the Aparri attack. I took a lot of time realizing that I didn't need to add Ground Support because it wouldn't add anything to the attack. Not that it would have mattered. I miscalculated what the odds would be when planning the attack, rolled a '1' and lost the INF. At least the other invasion of the Philippines was a success (and that one included an HQ, too.

Most of the Automatic attacks were simply to secure territory already within the Japanese sphere of influence, but not yet controlled by Japan. I don't want to see any blue in this area if I can prevent it, and OOS Notionals not in a city pose no threat at all.

The port at Cocanada, India was a bit of a risk, but the Rain actually helped me here. If it had been Fine weather, the Notional Units would have been in supply and much more dangerous. I had enough Shore Bombardment to be sure of good odds, even with the Rain, so I took the risk, and the roll just paid off.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

About defending Japan. In the actual war the Japanese were aware of the danger to their homeland which is why they spread out so far throughout the Pacific. They intended to defend the perimeter, not the home islands.

MWIF models this pretty well I think.

[Red Prince]

The rest of the impulse was used to rebase a FTR and LND to the Vitebsk region, a LND and NAV within range of Kunming, and to reorganize some air power.

It seems kind of a waste for Guderian, knowing that next impulse will be an Air Action, but he can't move forward again without getting out of supply yet. A route through Iraq, Turkey, or Persia needs to be secured first, and I'm working on that. So, he reorganized the LND that flew mediocre missions this impulse.

Similarly, it feels like a waste for Balbo to use only 2 of his 3 reorganization points to get the ATR back flying again, but I have a good reason for that. Beyond the fact that he, too, can't move forward without putting the entire front OOS, I want to be able to Air Transport the MTN unit again . . . this time into Persia to help the Iraqi MIL cut the rail lines to Teheran.

[Centuur]

First there was the continuous bad luck of the CW fleet not finding the Italians, than there was the bad luck in the way the Japanese captured Singapore, now Kiev... I must say the Axis are extremely lucky at points that really matter until now. Are you sure you aren't using loaded dice...  [:-] Wasn't there some great weather too in the first turn of war? Terrible, terrible... How are the allies ever going to win against this.
Beginners luck, probably...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

First there was the continuous bad luck of the CW fleet not finding the Italians, than there was the bad luck in the way the Japanese captured Singapore, now Kiev... I must say the Axis are extremely lucky at points that really matter until now. Are you sure you aren't using loaded dice...  [:-] Wasn't there some great weather too in the first turn of war? Terrible, terrible... How are the allies ever going to win against this.
Beginners luck, probably...

As the German player, I'm actually starting to get nervous. I don't like how the Northern Front is foiling my plans. And I actually think that the bad weather this past winter kind of evened things out. The reason the air force is so far behind the lines is that they didn't have time enough to rebase from the Iberian campaign. Yes, it hurt the Russians, too, but I think we all expected Germany to be at least one river deeper into Russia than they are at the moment.

As for loaded dice, have you noticed that the rolls that are bad for the CW navy and good for the German army are both at the same end of the scale? Perhaps the dice are loaded? Then again, I've tried to make the majority of my attacks (until now) near certain victories. So, those rolls of '4' or '5' that result in a */2B aren't really a result of loaded dice, just loaded attacks.

Singapore, was lucky, as was this attack. But the odds favored the 4:1 CRT, and on that one, a '7' or higher would result in the same thing as the Germans got here. I do like the luck, though. For either side (when attacking). Taking the Azores away from the Germans without getting disorganized allowed MacArthur to reorganize a bunch of convoys to send out for setting up trade with Russia . . . he rolled a '10' on that attack.
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Edit: Not to mention that the Japanese have tried twice to find the CW convoy pipeline in the South Pacific, and they've failed both times.

[Red Prince]

Speaking of luck, here's the new weather roll . . . . it isn't a '4' again, but it has the same result. Fine weather everywhere except the N. Monsoon zone:

[Red Prince]

Once again, here's an overview of the Soviet lines. I think the question for the Soviets is if they believe the Germans will take an Air Action or a Land Action next. Do they hold their ground in the south, or do they retreat? In the north things are looking pretty safe . . . except for the far north. I know I said I wasn't heading for Leningrad (or at least that Rommel wasn't -- and he didn't), but squeezing through the gaps seemed to be the most prudent course of action for Germany, based on where they had units available.

I'll try to post more of my "extreme-flyout" sets tonight after I have dinner.

[Centuur]

I think I would stay in position along the Dnjepr. The German airforce isn't in range at the moment. The one unit however, which should move away from there is the HQ. It would be nice if he can get in the wood hex behind Kharkov and it is slow moving, so I don't think I would like him to stay along the river at this moment.

In the north, I would retreat the stack with the 6-4 one hex east and the stack with the gun goes into the city of Smolensk. The gun itself there doesn't move.
You might also go for a ground strike on the hex with the Stuka there, or is there a FTR in range? If so, don't.

The Leningrad MIL should move back into the city now, since otherwise he will be attacked, and being a lone unit, will be eliminated. The 5-3 north has got a problem. He cannot allow the Finns to move towards Moscow (if the turn is going to be really long, that's very dangerous, and another long turn will be coming next). However: he also can't allow the Finns the movement towards Novgorod. I think I would probably move him eastwards one hex. I don't know how the unified map is further north, but if Mannerheim can still be in supply in the hex the 5-4 is now in, the USSR has got a problem. I don't like putting the 5-3 into the swamp.

The rest of the USSR front looks as good as you can have it by now, so I suggest to wait and see what happens in the next Axis impulse. The German airforce is still to far away.

By the way: is the CW unit in Murmansk already at Petsamo? He should move, every opportunity you've got.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I think I would stay in position along the Dnjepr. The German airforce isn't in range at the moment. The one unit however, which should move away from there is the HQ. It would be nice if he can get in the wood hex behind Kharkov and it is slow moving, so I don't think I would like him to stay along the river at this moment.

In the north, I would retreat the stack with the 6-4 one hex east and the stack with the gun goes into the city of Smolensk. The gun itself there doesn't move.
You might also go for a ground strike on the hex with the Stuka there, or is there a FTR in range? If so, don't.

Yeah, there's a FTR with Rommel, next to the Stuka.

The Leningrad MIL should move back into the city now, since otherwise he will be attacked, and being a lone unit, will be eliminated. The 5-3 north has got a problem. He cannot allow the Finns to move towards Moscow (if the turn is going to be really long, that's very dangerous, and another long turn will be coming next). However: he also can't allow the Finns the movement towards Novgorod. I think I would probably move him eastwards one hex. I don't know how the unified map is further north, but if Mannerheim can still be in supply in the hex the 5-4 is now in, the USSR has got a problem. I don't like putting the 5-3 into the swamp.

The rest of the USSR front looks as good as you can have it by now, so I suggest to wait and see what happens in the next Axis impulse. The German airforce is still to far away.

Mannerheim is at his limit, unless he moves into the swamp hex -- and I've used that tactic before, but not this early in the turn.

By the way: is the CW unit in Murmansk already at Petsamo? He should move, every opportunity you've got.

I forgot to mention it, but yes, the 7-3 INF took Petsamo last impulse.

[Red Prince]

I hate to leave a gap, but in the south I might be able to use the stack with the MOT on top to reinforce other areas. That forest hex is now vulnerable to a much better attack, and if the HQ moves off the line (I don't think he can afford to), a breakthrough there could be devestating. The Soviets have another HQ coming in next turn, so if he dies, he dies. He only takes 3 turns to rebuild, anyway.
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Edit Just realized that a Breakthrough can't happen in that hex, since it's not on the rail line.

[composer99]

As long as the Germans can't get into a gap right away, there's no harm in having 1 or 2 hexes empty.

[Centuur]

Move the HQ. You can fix the front there by moving units along the river line north from the point where the 3-2 MIL is in. I think that other MIL behind the front will be in time to get the gap closed. Koniev comes in next turn, that's good, however: the front is going to get a lot longer, since the Germans will force the Russians to leave the Dnjepr about three impulses from now. If the Dnjepr line is broken, the next line is a lot more difficult to hold (the factory line), because of favourable terrain for the Germans. Believe me, you need the HQ's.
An alternative is to move the HQ into the hex were the 3-2 MIL is in, putting it on the railline, so you can rail him out of there next impulse. However, that means a flipped HQ, which need to go to a save position far away, because the turn might continue for a long time. Also: I would like the spare rail move to move MIL units into the front. Are there still some that are far away? Or are they now all in the frontlines?

[lomyrin]

I would have aimed the German north foirces at Smolensk and merely have a few guarding units towards the Leningrad area. Once Germans have broken out to the east of Smolensk the entire southern Dnieper position would be untenable for the Russians and they would have to fall back towards their cities to the east. German units moving south from Smolensk ccan unravel the entire Dnieper defences.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

I would have aimed the German north foirces at Smolensk and merely have a few guarding units towards the Leningrad area. Once Germans have broken out to the east of Smolensk the entire southern Dnieper position would be untenable for the Russians and they would have to fall back towards their cities to the east. German units moving south from Smolensk ccan unravel the entire Dnieper defences.

That's still the basic goal of this maneuver. The problem I've got is that I really don't have enough units to screen a flank this large. The benefit of going North is that I can get around behind the Northern front with Mannerheim using that rail line. At most, I need 3 units to completely block Leningrad and maintain the rail connection. Once Leningrad is screened, if the Soviets don't start a retreat toward Moscow, they're going to have major problems.

This move is also an attempt to force the Soviets to start railing a few units to Archangel, since they've sent 2 factories there (for the sake of lend-lease). If they don't do that soon, they'll have to place reinforcements there, and they might not be the right ones.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

I would have aimed the German north foirces at Smolensk and merely have a few guarding units towards the Leningrad area. Once Germans have broken out to the east of Smolensk the entire southern Dnieper position would be untenable for the Russians and they would have to fall back towards their cities to the east. German units moving south from Smolensk ccan unravel the entire Dnieper defences.

That's still the basic goal of this maneuver. The problem I've got is that I really don't have enough units to screen a flank this large. The benefit of going North is that I can get around behind the Northern front with Mannerheim using that rail line. At most, I need 3 units to completely block Leningrad and maintain the rail connection. Once Leningrad is screened, if the Soviets don't start a retreat toward Moscow, they're going to have major problems.

This move is also an attempt to force the Soviets to start railing a few units to Archangel, since they've sent 2 factories there (for the sake of lend-lease). If they don't do that soon, they'll have to place reinforcements there, and they might not be the right ones.

What - Archangel? The distance from Leningrad to the nearest rail hex leading to Archangel is 10 hexes (as the Bf 109 flies). That rail line is not in danger. And I don't see how the Germans are going to maintain supply to any units that go wandering that far afield.

I agree with Peter to move the 5-3 on the Svir one hex east and move the Mil back into Leningrad. I would put two Inf (11 factors) next to the disorganized 5-3 in the swamp to keep him in supply. [EDIT: those units go due east of the 5-3 so they can only be attacked from 1 hex]. If the Germans want to attack him, they will have to get a lot of strength points against him. Since the Germans didn't move up next to the Russians in a lot of places, you have ample opportunity to tweak your line. Only retreat from the clear hex (as Peter said).

In Persia I would fall back to the optimal 4 (eventually 5) hex front. I would move Zhukov into the front line - his 16 factors really makes Axis attacks much more dangerous for the Axis. The corner hex should be the only hex that can be attacked from 2 hexsides so it has to get the better units.

[brian brian]

I was very disappointed no one besides Lothrim noticed or said anything about the extreme peril Rundstedt put himself in on the last German impulse. It rather reminded me of US Paratrooper General Matt Ridgeway standing under fire and pissing in the direction of the enemy. That is fine for a Major General to motivate his troops, but not so good for an HQ-A unit. I have written on here that I wouldn't recommend the Soviets take a risk of a counter-attack just because a couple Panzers get disorganized in front of them. But then I would never expect an opponent to leave an HQ-A all by it's lonesome with no bomber support and three wonderful hexes to attack it from.

I write this more for the AI programming. I am glad I would not have to do what Steve has to do in setting the exact number where reward > risk. An HQ-A is far, far more than a slightly expensive armor unit that can even add an odds level to it's own attack, about to simply be replaced by HQ-A Manstein in a few turns. In terms of the quantification every unit must have for the AI scripts, it should already be nearly priceless. In this game, right now it represents a full 25% of the size of the combat front the Germans can develop. Without it, they would have been down to 3 HQs on the Russian front, 2 of them slow ones, and they are about to leave the helpful depots in the Baltic States behind. This would significantly reduce the amount of threat they could exert on the Soviets, allowing them to concentrate their forces more in the threatened area. The amount of ground the Germans could cover in the "naked" turn (Jul/Aug, when the Russians have few, or in this game, near zero, reinforcements (much better to build only some MIL on the first turn to cover this problem)), would be greatly reduced without that HQ-A around. This would have gained lots of precious impulses for the upcoming defense of the Caucasus. I really hope however that risk <> reward is calculated, the AI would have taken this attack, because these rewards were worth a very great deal, and the risk was not all that great, and there was possibly even none at all....

I think a healthy majority of experienced WiF players would have gladly taken the 7-1, even with an unfortunate armor deficit keeping it from being an auto victory, with only a 30% chance of being disorganized. (It may have been worth some soak-off type air missions to drain the German FTR cover via Ground Strike on each HQ; one might even get through, but if not, the FTR cover is gone and the air could contribute more of the factors to the attack). Also an option would be to use the Soviet Offensive Chit, even on their worst HQ, to probably get the attack to 10-1, or reduce # of attacking units and still get a 7-1. A completely 'worth it' calculation on spending the chit.

Even at about a maximum possible of 5-1, or maybe even lower, my only hard decision would have been whether to hand out the 6 glorious Guards Banner Army points to 2 units, or 3? Maybe the attackers would disorganize, but either way Rundstedt is gone, and even the disorganized victors would go up quite a bit in combat power, probably enough to cost the Germans a fair bit of effort/time to kill them in place (and Timoshenko could be sacrificed later on instead and just re-org 4 of them if O-Chit used). Oh, and I would hand out 3 GBA promotions if the factors worked out, cuz each and every one of those units on the map demoralizes the Germans with the knowledge of their impending doom for impetuously invading the Motherland. The tinge of red on their counters also gives the Germans flashbacks to every Russian player's favorite wargame unit, the Berserkers: (pity the internet doesn't have an example image of the 6-2-8 instead.)