MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Of the 2 attacks this impulse, the one on Kunming is the most important. If Kunming falls, China is at an end . . .

So, the attacks:



And the results:

Attack on Kunming: Assault, Roll = 6+2 = 8 = */2S (all defenders destroyed, due to no valid retreat hex)
Attack on Pskov: Assault, Roll = 4 = */2S

Not wanting to take any chances, I decided HQ-I Umezu could risk being disorganized providing HQ Support. He's still within range to let his troops collect the rest of the Burma Road (connecting Rangoon to China) without having them move out of supply -- as long as the weather stays Fine, and it probably will (famous last words). I'd have to look through all of my notes, but I think that both sides have had very good success trying to provide Support. Of corse, I haven't always mentioned it in the AAR when they fail, so it may seem like more success than there actually was. As I said, I'd have to look through my notes. Anyway, Umezu succeeded, so the chances of Kunming falling move from 50% to 70% and in this case, I really don't care if it disorganizes the attackers. Getting the job done is good enough for me.

At Pskov, since this is a bit of a pit-stop along the way to better things, I wasn't willing to risk disorganization, so I found the best troops available to take on the lone defender at 7:1 odds. A 70% chance to stay organized is what I like (Big Bopper, anyone?). The Soviets might have been able to provide 2 factors of Ground Support, but at the risk of getting shot down at +2/-2 odds in Germany's favor. It would only have dropped this to a 5:1 attack, which is better, but not good enough to risk the LND (at extended range). I want to save those factors for a time and place where they can really mess things up for Germany.
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So, here's a question: both of these rolls were "average" rolls . . . not too high, not too low . . . but in both cases, they were just enough to keep the attackers from being disorganized. Should this be considered luck or not? I consider it to be good planning . . . after all, 4 of the 9 other possible rolls at Kunming would have meant the same thing, and 6 of the 9 other possible rolls at Pskov would have, too. So, is it "lucky" that these weren't '5' and '3' instead of the rolls they actually were?

No, those aren't lucky rolls. With these high odds attacks you might get unlucky someday. High odd attacks takes good planning.
The roll on Kiev was another thing: there you were lucky, since the chanche of getting disorganised was far, far greater...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Of the 2 attacks this impulse, the one on Kunming is the most important. If Kunming falls, China is at an end . . .

So, the attacks:



And the results:

Attack on Kunming: Assault, Roll = 6+2 = 8 = */2S (all defenders destroyed, due to no valid retreat hex)
Attack on Pskov: Assault, Roll = 4 = */2S

Not wanting to take any chances, I decided HQ-I Umezu could risk being disorganized providing HQ Support. He's still within range to let his troops collect the rest of the Burma Road (connecting Rangoon to China) without having them move out of supply -- as long as the weather stays Fine, and it probably will (famous last words). I'd have to look through all of my notes, but I think that both sides have had very good success trying to provide Support. Of corse, I haven't always mentioned it in the AAR when they fail, so it may seem like more success than there actually was. As I said, I'd have to look through my notes. Anyway, Umezu succeeded, so the chances of Kunming falling move from 50% to 70% and in this case, I really don't care if it disorganizes the attackers. Getting the job done is good enough for me.

At Pskov, since this is a bit of a pit-stop along the way to better things, I wasn't willing to risk disorganization, so I found the best troops available to take on the lone defender at 7:1 odds. A 70% chance to stay organized is what I like (Big Bopper, anyone?). The Soviets might have been able to provide 2 factors of Ground Support, but at the risk of getting shot down at +2/-2 odds in Germany's favor. It would only have dropped this to a 5:1 attack, which is better, but not good enough to risk the LND (at extended range). I want to save those factors for a time and place where they can really mess things up for Germany.
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So, here's a question: both of these rolls were "average" rolls . . . not too high, not too low . . . but in both cases, they were just enough to keep the attackers from being disorganized. Should this be considered luck or not? I consider it to be good planning . . . after all, 4 of the 9 other possible rolls at Kunming would have meant the same thing, and 6 of the 9 other possible rolls at Pskov would have, too. So, is it "lucky" that these weren't '5' and '3' instead of the rolls they actually were?

No, those aren't lucky rolls. With these high odds attacks you might get unlucky someday. High odd attacks takes good planning.
The roll on Kiev was another thing: there you were lucky, since the chanche of getting disorganised was far, far greater...

I quite agree. Kiev and Singapore were pure luck to stay organized. Singapore didn't actually need to stay organized, as neither unit has moved since then, but it was still lucky. Kiev was an insane risk that paid off (but probably shouldn't have).

[Red Prince]

A few other things that happened this impulse:

Japan used its Marines in India to cut off 2 of the resources there from being railed to factories. Italy was able to rebase a NAV within range (I think) of the Persian Gulf 0 Box, and one of its fighters continues to slowly work its way toward Iraq. Germany rebased 4 fighters and 2 bombers to the front lines, mostly in the Ukraine. All of the fighters also have tactical factors, and 3 of them have decent range.

The CW fleet is stretched so thin right now, that the Italian NAV, in combination with one they have in the Red Sea and a possible fleet from Japan soon heading for the Arabian Sea . . . well, we might see a J/A '41 turn that has an overseas supply path to Iraq after all.

Of course, when that turn comes around is anyone's guess. It is now Allied Impulse #7, and the weather is looking as Fine as can be:
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I'll get you some updated shots of what the Soviet fronts look like in the next hour or so.

[composer99]

Re: obsolete US planes in service
Someone upthread mentioned keeping the Bolo around, now that it's made it to Europe, to use as the front-line bomber in future air combats. This I agree with. It also is an extra bomber which can threaten to groundstrike or strat bomb targets (not very well, but well enough if left to its own devices).

Re: CW/US Convoy Defences
Getting the hang of setting up convoy defences properly is something that comes with time. Usually the sooner it gets done, the less disruption one faces regardless of other events in the game. Generally, just as the USSR's best bet is to always assume the Germans will attack in 1941 and build/plan accordingly, the Western Allies are best off always assuming that every turn the Axis will try to sink convoys with every unit they have in reach and deploy their defences on that basis.

Re: Groundstriking German hexes with ART in USSR
Obviously, this move would have been "better" post facto if it had hit the HQ (to be fair, the Germans probably didn't want to move an HQ up to the front line if it wasn't participating in an attack straightaway). However, it was a reasonable enough move until Dnepropetrovsk falls or the Germans cross the river further south. Then the ART will probably be helpless & overrun.

Of course, now that it's the 4th Allied impulse, the turn now has a chance of ending every impulse: 10% this impulse, 20% during the Axis impulse, and so on. IMO the Allies should now strongly consider passing save for the USSR starting on impulse 9 (base 30% chance of ending the turn, increase to 40%).

Re: USSR counterattacks
An attack with cheap units against HQ-A Rundstet was, I suspect, reasonable. Even if they had died or been disorganized, chances are the bp exchange would have favoured the USSR, and of course there is always the possibility that the Red Army would be as fortunate on the offensive as the Germans have been thus far.

Now, one possibility that arises is that if the Germans get across the Dneipr in, say, but one hex towards the centre of the line, the USSR can respond with their o-chit to push them back. Because the Germans do not have an o-chit themselves, the USSR is under less pressure to hang on to its own. An o-chit can make a questionable attack a reasonable one. Ideally, this would be combined with the turn ending right after so the Germans find themselves at the start of July/August on the wrong side of the Dneipr. Even better would be if the Allies get a double impulse (ending May/June and starting July/August) so they can run away once they are reorganized.

Re: Guard Banner Armies
That they are not implemented as of this test game makes me sad. [:(]

[lordzyplon]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Yes, recovering the pilot in Ireland was what I was thinking.

However, the Bolo does have a good range and a NAV factor. You could always use it for convoy support.

To recover the pilot, you need a home country hex. Northern Ireland isn't US home country. From RAW:

44. US occupies Northern Ireland - You can declare control of
Northern Ireland during any future Allied declaration of war step
that the Commonwealth controls every hex in Northern Ireland
and provided the Commonwealth agrees. Northern Ireland
becomes US controlled. Move any other Allied units there to the
nearest hex their major power controls. From now on, the US
may use the Belfast factory and Belfast becomes a primary
supply source for the US.

There is no mention of Northern Ireland becoming US home country hexes, so you cannot put US reinforcements there and cannot move aircraft to the reserve pool to collect pilots.

I can't remember if it's an optional rule, but if he flies the Bolo into Ireland, it is interred (plane destroyed, pilot on track.)

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: lordzyplon

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Yes, recovering the pilot in Ireland was what I was thinking.

However, the Bolo does have a good range and a NAV factor. You could always use it for convoy support.

To recover the pilot, you need a home country hex. Northern Ireland isn't US home country. From RAW:

44. US occupies Northern Ireland - You can declare control of
Northern Ireland during any future Allied declaration of war step
that the Commonwealth controls every hex in Northern Ireland
and provided the Commonwealth agrees. Northern Ireland
becomes US controlled. Move any other Allied units there to the
nearest hex their major power controls. From now on, the US
may use the Belfast factory and Belfast becomes a primary
supply source for the US.

There is no mention of Northern Ireland becoming US home country hexes, so you cannot put US reinforcements there and cannot move aircraft to the reserve pool to collect pilots.

I can't remember if it's an optional rule, but if he flies the Bolo into Ireland, it is interred (plane destroyed, pilot on track.)

It is an optional rule. But it is only available for minor country aircraft.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Re: obsolete US planes in service
Someone upthread mentioned keeping the Bolo around, now that it's made it to Europe, to use as the front-line bomber in future air combats. This I agree with. It also is an extra bomber which can threaten to groundstrike or strat bomb targets (not very well, but well enough if left to its own devices).

I fully intend to keep him here. He's already done some damage, and the extra plane is usefull for distracting German fighters. I'd scrap this one as soon as it dies, anyway, and with 56 BP per turn coming to the USA, I'm not too worried about the Pilot, either.

Re: CW/US Convoy Defences
Getting the hang of setting up convoy defences properly is something that comes with time. Usually the sooner it gets done, the less disruption one faces regardless of other events in the game. Generally, just as the USSR's best bet is to always assume the Germans will attack in 1941 and build/plan accordingly, the Western Allies are best off always assuming that every turn the Axis will try to sink convoys with every unit they have in reach and deploy their defences on that basis.

Re: Groundstriking German hexes with ART in USSR
Obviously, this move would have been "better" post facto if it had hit the HQ (to be fair, the Germans probably didn't want to move an HQ up to the front line if it wasn't participating in an attack straightaway). However, it was a reasonable enough move until Dnepropetrovsk falls or the Germans cross the river further south. Then the ART will probably be helpless & overrun.

Of course, now that it's the 4th Allied impulse, the turn now has a chance of ending every impulse: 10% this impulse, 20% during the Axis impulse, and so on. IMO the Allies should now strongly consider passing save for the USSR starting on impulse 9 (base 30% chance of ending the turn, increase to 40%).

I'd like to hear other opinions on this. I was starting to think the same thing myself. If the CW gets bogged down or disorganized in a coming attack in East Aftrica, they have no real need to continue making moves this turn. It would also be foolish to send any "help" to the North Atlantic. Don't want to let the non-phasing side try anything, do we?

Re: USSR counterattacks
An attack with cheap units against HQ-A Rundstet was, I suspect, reasonable. Even if they had died or been disorganized, chances are the bp exchange would have favoured the USSR, and of course there is always the possibility that the Red Army would be as fortunate on the offensive as the Germans have been thus far.

Now, one possibility that arises is that if the Germans get across the Dneipr in, say, but one hex towards the centre of the line, the USSR can respond with their o-chit to push them back. Because the Germans do not have an o-chit themselves, the USSR is under less pressure to hang on to its own. An o-chit can make a questionable attack a reasonable one. Ideally, this would be combined with the turn ending right after so the Germans find themselves at the start of July/August on the wrong side of the Dneipr. Even better would be if the Allies get a double impulse (ending May/June and starting July/August) so they can run away once they are reorganized.

Gonna need some thoughts on this. There are a few stragglers finally making it to the front at this point, but there are also a few units like the Kiev MIL that are gone once killed, so I need to stack them strongly. Is the river safe? Or do the German air forces make an organized retreat a better option? How long will the turn last? (who knows?)

I'll have those images up in about 10 minutes.

Re: Guard Banner Armies
That they are not implemented as of this test game makes me sad. [:(]

Me, too, but those are the breaks. I'm not exactly sure how "un-written" the code is at this point. I know there are plans for the forms that need to be used, but I can't remember if the actual code for it is unfinished or just not yet integrated.

[Red Prince]

Here's the first image I've got for you. It's extremely degraded (according to the program I use), so please don't think this represents how the game really looks. I just wanted to be able to give you a visual that includes the entire front, and also to let you see the retreat options. (It's a lot easier to comprehend if you can save the image to disk and look at it by scrolling around the picture.)

So, here it is:

[Red Prince]

The North Front:

[Red Prince]

The South Front:

[Red Prince]

The Persian Front:

[Red Prince]

And the loneliness that is Siberia:

[Red Prince]

To give you an idea of what is available to the Soviets, here are the current Force Pool of land units (top) and the units coming in next turn (bottom). The most important unit coming in, I think is that PARA Corps. Yes, even more important than Koniev. And it's why I've hesitated to use the LND-4 units with ATR abilities. They each have a range of 11 hexes, and that's going to mean that Germany has to cover every city and major rail link within the range of those LND with a ZOC, at the least.

[composer99]

South Front:

The USSR has two things going for them here. One is that the Germans are short bombers. They have 1 Stuka and 2 FTR3 that are acceptable bombers (3 & 4 tactical factors respectively). The other is that the Germans haven't seeped up to the hexes adjacent to the empty part of the line. IMO this combination buys the USSR 1 impulse of time, as long as they're willing to risk losing a FTR against German bombing missions (namely against the Stuka). The Germans can make risky attacks to cross against organized forces, but without engineers they'll be looking at attacks comparable to the one vs Kiev.

The USSR needs to move the ARM that is holding the flank closer to the centre where it can make a difference defensively and put something else in its place. The USSR being short on ARM and anti-tank/anti-air guns is the weakest part of this front, since it gives the Germans a great deal of blitz flexibility.

IMO the USSR sits tight this impulse in this sector and brings some FTR in to fly up vs the Stuka. The FTR should be deployed such that if they survive they can return to base to future strongholds such as Kursk & Stalino (part of the factory line) - keeping in mind FTR can return to base at full range after intercepting at half range.

The North Front
Here again, the USSR looks like it can sit tight apart from some minor adjustments. The Germans aren't in position to push east straightaway, and again they are short good bombers (1 Stuka that I can see). Because two of the three key hexes in this sector are in forests, I don't see a need to defend against bombing there. The hex in the riverbend named "Mogilev" should be defended with FTR and it really needs a division (ideally an anti-tank/anti-air gun). Also swap one of the corps there with the MECH nearby. HQ-I Yeremenko does not currently need FTR support unless I am not seeing a German bomber that can reach him.

Persian Front
The USSR needs a few more troops to fill out the line here. Each hex can afford one strong unit and one weaker unit. Zhukov should be replaced on the line (the 7-4 INF in reinforcements would do this job nicely) and should eventually be sent north with a less powerful HQ (Timoshenko comes to mind) brought in to replace him. FTR reinforcements would be put to very good use here as the Axis have many bombers but little FTR cover.

Siberia
Short-term the USSR can't do much here. Long-term, some of its weaker units (and 1-2 6-moving blitz units) can be sent here, along with a single HQ such as Vatutin or Timoshenko to begin a counter-offensive to retake any land lost along the Trans-Siberian railroad as well as invade Manchuria. Probably 40 or so combat factors of units will be fine along with some airpower.

Overall
It looks like the USSR might be able to get away with a combined impulse themselves. Some of the navy in Leningrad can sail out and try to sink German convoys in the Baltic. Sure, they might not reorganize for lack of oil once Novgorod is seized, but whatever. However, railing out factories is still important and may outweigh the desire to perform a combined impulse. It hurts production, but the more factories that escape and the sooner they do it, the stronger USSR production is later.

Edit: Added thoughts on Persian front, Siberian front, & production. And a reason why the USSR should not do a combined.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: composer99

South Front:

The USSR has two things going for them here. One is that the Germans are short bombers. They have 1 Stuka and 2 FTR3 that are acceptable bombers (3 & 4 tactical factors respectively). The other is that the Germans haven't seeped up to the hexes adjacent to the empty part of the line. IMO this combination buys the USSR 1 impulse of time, as long as they're willing to risk losing a FTR against German bombing missions (namely against the Stuka). The Germans can make risky attacks to cross against organized forces, but without engineers they'll be looking at attacks comparable to the one vs Kiev.

The USSR needs to move the ARM that is holding the flank closer to the centre where it can make a difference defensively and put something else in its place. The USSR being short on ARM and anti-tank/anti-air guns is the weakest part of this front, since it gives the Germans a great deal of blitz flexibility.

IMO the USSR sits tight this impulse in this sector and brings some FTR in to fly up vs the Stuka. The FTR should be deployed such that if they survive they can return to base to future strongholds such as Kursk & Stalino (part of the factory line) - keeping in mind FTR can return to base at full range after intercepting at half range.

The North Front
Here again, the USSR looks like it can sit tight apart from some minor adjustments. The Germans aren't in position to push east straightaway, and again they are short good bombers (1 Stuka that I can see). Because two of the three key hexes in this sector are in forests, I don't see a need to defend against bombing there. The hex in the riverbend named "Mogilev" should be defended with FTR and it really needs a division (ideally an anti-tank/anti-air gun). Also swap one of the corps there with the MECH nearby. HQ-I Yeremenko does not currently need FTR support unless I am not seeing a German bomber that can reach him.

Persian Front
The USSR needs a few more troops to fill out the line here. Each hex can afford one strong unit and one weaker unit. Zhukov should be replaced on the line (the 7-4 INF in reinforcements would do this job nicely) and should eventually be sent north with a less powerful HQ (Timoshenko comes to mind) brought in to replace him. FTR reinforcements would be put to very good use here as the Axis have many bombers but little FTR cover.

Siberia
Short-term the USSR can't do much here. Long-term, some of its weaker units (and 1-2 6-moving blitz units) can be sent here, along with a single HQ such as Vatutin or Timoshenko to begin a counter-offensive to retake any land lost along the Trans-Siberian railroad as well as invade Manchuria. Probably 40 or so combat factors of units will be fine along with some airpower.

Overall
It looks like the USSR might be able to get away with a combined impulse themselves. Some of the navy in Leningrad can sail out and try to sink German convoys in the Baltic. Sure, they might not reorganize for lack of oil once Novgorod is seized, but whatever. However, railing out factories is still important and may outweigh the desire to perform a combined impulse. It hurts production, but the more factories that escape and the sooner they do it, the stronger USSR production is later.

Edit: Added thoughts on Persian front, Siberian front, & production. And a reason why the USSR should not do a combined.

I agree. The USSR should stand and fight next impulse. The only thing I wouldn't do is to railmove Zhukov towards the north. Koniev is arriving on the map next turn, and it takes two impulses to get two railmoves to swap HQ's. I would rather try railmoving the last MIL into a useful position (Stalino looks good, than the 5-3 MIL can start moving to the front, strengthening so that the HQ can move eastwards toward the woods (that HQ is in range of the Stuka, with a FTR escort possible).

[Shannon V. OKeets]

I agree with Composer99. A few tweaks here and there is all that is necessary.

What the Germans did wrong last impulse is that they did not move up against the Russian front line. Not doing so means they effectively lost a summer impulse. Yes, I know that the desire to send the SUBs out to ravage the British convoys was oh so tempting. Nonetheless, what is more important: Commonwealth production or the loss of Russian land units? Production is not a problem for the Allies (except in the USSR). The US can build whatever needs to be built to fulfill immediate needs.

My opinion is that if the Russians continue to hold in front of the Moscow-Don-Rostov line at the end of this turn, they should be able to hold forever. That is, the Russians should be able retreat to that excellent defensive line during the next turn - which is the most difficult for the USSR because they will have so few reinforcements. But then comes their big blustery friend from the arctic to halt the German advance for 6-7 months.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

When considering the force pool you should also show the units in the Destroyed Pool.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

When considering the force pool you should also show the units in the Destroyed Pool.

Forgot about that.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

I agree with Composer99. A few tweaks here and there is all that is necessary.

What the Germans did wrong last impulse is that they did not move up against the Russian front line. Not doing so means they effectively lost a summer impulse. Yes, I know that the desire to send the SUBs out to ravage the British convoys was oh so tempting. Nonetheless, what is more important: Commonwealth production or the loss of Russian land units? Production is not a problem for the Allies (except in the USSR). The US can build whatever needs to be built to fulfill immediate needs.

My opinion is that if the Russians continue to hold in front of the Moscow-Don-Rostov line at the end of this turn, they should be able to hold forever. That is, the Russians should be able retreat to that excellent defensive line during the next turn - which is the most difficult for the USSR because they will have so few reinforcements. But then comes their big blustery friend from the arctic to halt the German advance for 6-7 months.

The choice actually had nothing to do with the Subs. It was all about getting some land moves while still being able to bring the air forces to the front. The submarine combat was just an added bonus. If the turn lasts 2-3 more Axis impulses (3 would be 12 total), the Germans will have troops behind the North defenses unless they begin to retreat at some point.

Now that it is mid-turn, I'll be willing to risk some attacks that disorganize or destroy units in order to get across the Dnieper. There is still time for Germany.

[Red Prince]

I think that until the Stalino and maybe the Kursk factory is railed out (Kharkov is now out), the Soviets should stick to Land actions. The Germans have a lot of spare convoys, and while they wouldn't want to do it, there may be occasion to take another Combined next turn, so trading a railable factory for 3 lost resources for the Germans doesn't seem like a good deal to me.
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Edit: I do think that after this impulse the Allies will start taking Pass for all but the Soviets.