MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Just discovered another problem/benefit of sailing those submarines for the Axis . . . the transports that were supposed to go pick up 2 more bombers from New York can't get there without risking an interception, and that's not something that would be good.

[brian brian]

when the Guards Banner Army coding commences, there is a process type question that needs to be sorted out. if the Soviets kill a German division, they get 1.5 GBA points, rounded to 2. If the Soviets kill two German corps but lose a division in the battle, do they get 4 (6 - 2) or 5 (6 - 1.5 = 4.5 rounded to 5) GBA points? I don't think that is covered explicitly by the official rounding rule at the beginning of the rules.

[Red Prince]

Maybe the dice are loaded . . . check out these Strategic Bombing rolls . . . and now Germany has lost 7 Production Points this turn. That's going to hurt.
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Edit: And all of that damage done by planes with 1-3 factors for the most part.

[Red Prince]

I'm anticipating an attack on this hex. I can swap the MECH Division out for a MOT Division, or an AA Division (even better?), but the only way I can prevent a Blitz is to put the ARM here, probably trading it with the MECH (or moving the MECH elsewhere). I expect the Germans can get the attack up to 2:1 or 3:1 (with either Ground Support and/or HQ Support). So, do I risk my bombers to help? Do I risk the ARM to keep it an Assault? I definitely need to move a FTR up to cover this hex.
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Edit: The Germans have a heavy AA gun that would be used in the attack and can therefore reduce any Ground Support that flies and gets through.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I'm anticipating an attack on this hex. I can swap the MECH Division out for a MOT Division, or an AA Division (even better?), but the only way I can prevent a Blitz is to put the ARM here, probably trading it with the MECH (or moving the MECH elsewhere). I expect the Germans can get the attack up to 2:1 or 3:1 (with either Ground Support and/or HQ Support). So, do I risk my bombers to help? Do I risk the ARM to keep it an Assault? I definitely need to move a FTR up to cover this hex.
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Edit: The Germans have a heavy AA gun that would be used in the attack and can therefore reduce any Ground Support that flies and gets through.

This is the best defense I can give it, which makes it a Stuka target, but pretty much makes certain that this would be a 3:2 or 2:1 Assault. I'd try to intercept the Ground strike by the Stuka, but if it gets through, do I give them the pass or try to reduce bombs with the AA . . . in effect giving them a "free" Ground Strike here?

[BallyJ]

As it is a wooded hex,
I say save your AA make him do the work to flip you.

[Red Prince]

Allied attacks for impulse #7 were minimal:



And the results:

Attack on Blantyre: Assault, Fractional Odds .595 (Yes), Roll = 8+1 = 9 = -/2S (attackers disorganized)

I figured that I had a MIL and a TERR that could pop back up in South Africa if destroyed in this attack, and since I want to start Pass Actions with everyone but the Soviets soon, it was now or never, so a low odds attack was acceptable here. Even if I waited an impulse, the best I could get would be a certainty of 3:1 odds. As it turned out, another high roll came through for an attack, and though the attackers were disorganized by this one, they suffered no losses at all. Mission accomplished.

[Red Prince]

I did exactly as suggested on both of the European fronts, and now everyone in the Soviet army has FTR coverage except for a few of the outlying units. 2 of the 3 fighters can make it back to factory cities from any hex they might defend. The 3rd just doesn't have the range (depending on which hexes get attacked), but can almsot get to a city.

The CW units heading for India got there, but are disorganized, so unless some extremely good opportunity arises, it's going to be just the USSR taking anything other than a Pass action from here on. Since France has very little to do and China has no units left, that really isn't a problem for them. The USA transports couldn't get back to the E. Coast to pick up any cargo, so the last truly useful thing they could do is done. There is still an opportunity to make an invasion attempt on a port in the Marshall Islands, but unless it is Fine weather, the attack is probably too risky. Besides, it's not a truly important port; it can wait for backup.

Time to see how the Soviet defenses hold . . . because the turn didn't end yet (10% chance of that).

[Red Prince]

I almost didn't make this Port Attack, thinking I'd be "kind" to the CW player, but then I remembered the edict to take every opportunity to sink enemy sealift. At the time the Liner entered this port, there were no other ports it could enter due to co-operation problems and stacking limits. Well, there was Karachi, but that was so far from where the land unit it carried was needed that I chose Calicut instead. I guess that was a mistake. [:(]

The CW did get a little bit lucky. One of the Optional Rules that I'm playing with is Bottomed Ships. That means that the 2 damaged results send the Liner to the Construction Pool instead of Destroyed Pool (and back into the Force Pool). It's a minor victory. Instead of taking 7 BP and 8 turns to rebuild, now it will "only" take 5 BP and 4 turns. Expensive and unfortunate, but every BP and/or turn saved does count.
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If you are unfamiliar with the Bottomed Ships rule (I was), here's how it reads in the Rules as Coded (RAC):

Option 18: (Bottomed ships) when applying results against units in a port, an ‘X’ result (or 2 ‘D’ results)
only destroys the target if you roll less than or equal to half its defense factor (the second roll if the unit is destroyed
by 2 ‘D’ results). If your roll lies between half and the full defense factor, put the unit in the construction pool
instead of the force pool. A carrier plane (CVPiF/SiF option 56) on a bottomed CV (PiF Option 28: and its pilot) is
still destroyed. Convoy points can never be bottomed - they are always destroyed. [Clarification. A bottomed ship
is not available to take any additional results - July 30, 2007.]

Look at the results in the image below. If the die rolls had gone the other way, with the '4' first and the '3' after that, the Liner would be sent to the Destroyed Pool, because it is the second roll that determines the ship's fate. As I said, it's a minor victory, but a victory nonetheless.

[Red Prince]

Germany attempted 3 Ground Strikes this impulse, sending escorts with 2 of them. The 3rd one was within range of my last fighter, but didn't seem like a good interception opportunity.

In retrospect, having the USSR intercept these 2 looks like a bad choice. The odds were "reasonable", though, and both hexes are vital to the security of the Motherland. Assuming that the Ground Strikes are a good indication of where Germany plans to attack, I figured that I better do my best to protect them. The Soviet best apparently wasn't good enough.

Subtract 2 x FTR-2 and a Pilot from the Soviet forces, ladies and gentlemen:

[Red Prince]

Another major victory for the Luftwaffe! (Maybe the Soviets should have risked their last fighter, after all).

It used up 2 x LND, 2 x FTR-2 escorts, and a FTR-3, but the Germans got the job done again, disorganizing 7 of the 9 potential targets. These are much better results than I expected, so I'll have to see how to alter my plans to take advantage of the situation for the Germans (and how to mitigate the damage for the Russians).

I'm starting to wonder if MWiF has some "personality" to it that simply likes offensive operations . . . Ground Strikes, Land Attacks, Strategic Bombing . . . good results seem to pop up. It can't be loaded dice, because the Ground Strikes need low rolls and the Strat Bombing needs high rolls.

Anyway, here's what happened to the Russians in this particular set of attacks:

[Centuur]

You shouldn't have put the MECH and the ARM together in one hex. Those units are far to expensive to lose in one German attack. However, what's done is done.
The Germans got lucky with the ground strikes. That isn't good. However, are there any German FTR's left which aren't disorganised? If there aren't: it is time for USSR ground support. But keep those TB-3's capable for reorganisation or ground strikes available.

Now: it's time the USSR will get some good rolls for them. Lucky Germans...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

You shouldn't have put the MECH and the ARM together in one hex. Those units are far to expensive to lose in one German attack. However, what's done is done.
The Germans got lucky with the ground strikes. That isn't good. However, are there any German FTR's left which aren't disorganised? If there aren't: it is time for USSR ground support. But keep those TB-3's capable for reorganisation or ground strikes available.

Now: it's time the USSR will get some good rolls for them. Lucky Germans...

There are 2 fighters left to the Germans. The attack isn't actually going to be on the forest hex, I think, but on the southern hex with the +3 for disorganized units. The best odds the USSR could get there in Air-to-Air combat is +3/-3 in favor of Germany. I don't know. I think I shouldn't try for Ground Support.

It will probably be a 2:1 +3 Blitz attack, with a chance for HQ Support to improve the odds. Without using the TB-3s, I could get from 2-5 factors of Ground Support, dropping this attack down to anything from 1:1 +3 to 2:1 +3 depending on how many factors get through and the HQ Support roll. Even at 1:1 +3, there's a 60% chance of at least a Retreat result, meaning the river line is likely to be broken.

I don't think that's worth risking a LND-3, a LND-4, and a FTR-2 on, do you?
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Edit: Perhaps I shouldn't have put the ARM and MECH together, but I posted that image and went to sleep . . . it was up for about 10 hours before I continued on again, and there were no objections. There usually are if I've done something wrong like this, so I figured it would be fine.

[Centuur]

If the Germans attack only the southernmost hex of the Dnjepr defense, I wouldn't use any ground support for that hex. That is because of the fact that you've got an opportunity to withdraw to the east, without giving up the defense line. Of course: this means you have to get a USSR unit at the Kerch strait hex...

If they attack the ARM/MECH stack, I'm afraid you have to ground support the hex, since you cannot afford to lose those two units. At the end of next impulse, if possible, try to reorganise them (are they in range of the HQ? Probably not...). I rather lose the HQ (and rebuild it immediately) than both the ARM/MECH...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

If the Germans attack only the southernmost hex of the Dnjepr defense, I wouldn't use any ground support for that hex. That is because of the fact that you've got an opportunity to withdraw to the east, without giving up the defense line. Of course: this means you have to get a USSR unit at the Kerch strait hex...

If they attack the ARM/MECH stack, I'm afraid you have to ground support the hex, since you cannot afford to lose those two units. At the end of next impulse, if possible, try to reorganise them (are they in range of the HQ? Probably not...). I rather lose the HQ (and rebuild it immediately) than both the ARM/MECH...

No, they aren't within range of an HQ, I'm afraid. However, I do have those TB-3s that could do the job. And they won't be intercepted unless Germany rebases another FTR to this front. They could, but it would leave the Oil in Rumania undefended with a 5-factor Soviet LND just waiting to have a go at it.

Anyway, here are the German attacks I've settled on for this impulse. With the chances of the turn ending in the not-too-distant future, I've decided to risk some low-odds attacks (with some bonus for each). I think I will fly the LND to the forest hex NE of Smolensk. That reduction from 50/50 at 3:1 odds down to less than a 20% chance is worthwhile, I think. If that hex gets brutalized, there's going to be trouble in mid-Russia.
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Edit: I forgot there was a 5-factor FTR under the 9-4 INF stack, so that 6-factor FTR doesn't need to escort, and the 5-factor FTR doesn't unless the Soviets fly Ground Support (which they still won't).

[Red Prince]

The 4 attacks this impulse:



And the results:

Attack on USSR [57, 58]: Blitz, Roll = 5+3 = 8 = -/1R (INF Division destroyed, attackers disorganized, defenders Retreat to the SE)
Attack on USSR [44, 56]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .661 (No), Roll = 8+2 = 10 = */1B (Not Converted, 5-4 INF destroyed, Breakthrough)
Attack on USSR [42, 54]: Assault, Fractional Odds .042 (Yes), Roll = 3+1 = 4 = -/1 (attackers disorganized)
Attack on Novgorod: Assault, Fractional Odds .711 (Yes), Roll = 4+1 = 5 = */2S

I really wanted that attack in the south to succeed. It had an 80% chance to get across the river, and a 50% chance to stay organized. HQ Support here failed on a roll of '9' so the Soviets got the best of things as far as that goes. The hard thing about this attack is that all of the units involved are good units . . . almost the best I've got, in fact, but there were only 2 possible rolls that would kill one of them off. Fortunately for the Germans, the roll was high enough to avoid that. Unfortunately, it was a single digit short of keeping the attackers organized. I probably should have found someone other than HQ-I von Bock to take his place, but I was hoping for the HQ Support. If that worked out, this roll would have resulted in a */B result. Oh, well.

I retreated the survivors to the southeast in the hopes that the USSR would let me get more units over the river line to attack this stack again . . . or the one northeast of it. Even if they block that empty hex to the east, it's going to mean weakening the line somewhere else, and that's fine by me. I think that with 4 units moving up into those hexes that can cross the river right now that it might be time for the Soviets to break cover and run for their lives, anyway.

Near Smolensk, there was almost as good a chance to do well . . . a 70% chance at victory, and a 40% chance to stay organized. This one was a better roll, and the attack paid off big. A strong Soviet stack goes up in smoke . . . though the 6-4 INF and the ART will return as reinforcements. Where they return, though, will depend on how long this turn lasts, I think. This was a Breakthrough result, so I decided to move the ARM Division into Smolensk. It was the only unit that could make it there, and while the Russians can surely kill him they want to, it might mean putting more units at risk and/or messing with their retreat plans. He's bait. Now let's see if the Russians can figure out how to have their cake and eat it too.

Farthur to the northwest, in the swamp, the Soviets had a choice to make: try to disorganize the enemy, or try to stay alive. In the end, the option to disorganize the enemy was the deciding factor. The best this INF could hope for was a 40% chance of suvival on a 3:1 Blitz, but if the Fractional Odds roll favored the Germans, the Assault table still gave the Russians a 60% chance to disorganize the 6 attackers. So, it went off as an Assault . . . and it worked like a charm . . . 1 dead Russian, but 6 disorganized Germans. Fair trade, especially with the Fractional Odds roll favoring Germany.

The last attack, on Novgorod, was a foregone conclusion. The Assault CRT gave a 20%-40% chance of disorganizing the Germans, depending on the Fractional Odds roll. The roll was close, and would have made the Germans suffer a lot more if it had gone the other way. No such luck. It looks like the Germans have a good chance to connect up with Mannerheim very soon.
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Overall, this was a good impulse for Germany. There were some risky attacks, but none of them was very likely to fail. The question was how much of the German force could be kept alive and kicking. The answer was "a lot of it, but not as much as they'd like". However, I think the Dnieper might be broken, and the Northern Front is nearing collapse. None of the German troops were lost, 4 enemies were destroyed, 2 were Shattered, and 2 more retreated in a disorganized manner. It's impulse #8 now, and there are likely only 1 or 2 Axis impulses left, so this suits me just fine.

[Red Prince]

This may be a questionable decision, but I nearly made an even more questionable decision. Here I decided that Rundstedt was far enough forward at this stage of the turn that I could afford to reorganize my best units, since it gives me a chance to do much more damage. If the turn starts to last long enough to stretch my lines to their farthest reaches, I can always rail Antonescu back from France to add another 4 hexes to the limit. I'd rather not, but it is an option.

I almost made the decision to reorganize units with Rommel up north, but decided that if I did, the Soviets might stand their ground. I want them to retreat if I can get them to. I don't see much that the Soviets can do to prevent Mannerheim from taking on the chore of supplying the Northern Front, so Rommel can move into a better position to create a "Central Front". Then he can reorganize units next impulse, if it looks like the smart thing to do.

So, the ARM that the Soviets disorganized and the Stack that crossed the river are now kicking again:

[Red Prince]

On to impulse #9, and the new weather roll . . . everything old is new again . . . isn't that what they say?

[Red Prince]

And now for the Soviet situation reports. I haven't even looked at the possibilities yet, but with Rain covering India it looks like only the USSR is going to take any action this impulse. That increases the chances of ending the turn to 40%. My instinct is to begin the retreat in the North, while trying for a delaying action in the South, but I haven't really come to any conclusions yet.

First, the Persian Front:

[Red Prince]

Next, the North Front: