I had every every in game B-24 squadron based at a level 8 AF at Naha, a level 7 AF at Tanegahsima and level 6 AFs at Nago, Yakashima and Amami Oshima. All of the B-29 squadrons in gane were based in the Marianas. I had medium bombers and Corsair squadrons based at a level 5 AF at Miyake-jima. And I had every in game Allied CV/CVL/CVE sailing up and down the coast of a Japan that was prostrate and almost incapable of providing aerial resistance. I was able to amass 35,000 strategic bombing points over a 6 month period. There is _definitely_ a law of diminishing returns when strategic bombing Japan. The first 10,000-15,000 points are pretty easy to accumulate. Then it gets progressively more difficult to project damage until you reach a point where additional damage to Japanese cities is _very_ incremental. There is no way you could take out all of Japan's factories in 1 month....or even 6-12 months even if flying virtually unopposed.
I almost laugh when I see reports of 50,000 or 60,000 fire levels.....thats maybe the size of a little campfire in the woods and you could maybe roast some marshmellows over it. You arent talking a decent fire until you get over 500,000 and I routinely created fires over 1 million. I found that bombing damage was related to fire intensity x duration with duration being the most important variable..... ie.....a 500,000 fire over a 6 day duration would cause much more damage than a 1,500,000 fire over a 2 day duration.
When you look at bombing reports...the fires reported represent the current fire level with FoW...you dont add up all the fire levels from each bombing wave during the attack....it represents the fluctuating fire level over the course of the turn. The fire level is ALWAYS less on the start of the 2nd day of the turn as it represents fire fighting activities overnight. You cant take 10 reports of 50,000 level fires and call that a 500,000 fire.
And the operational tempo is based on how far the bombers fly during their turn. If you have B-29s based in the Marianas you are lucky if they can sortie 8-10 times per month. If you are basing your strategic bombers in the Japanese HI and they are only flying 5-6 hexes/turn then I see no reason why they cant fly every day unless they suffer damage from AA or A2A. My medium bombers and Corsairs based on Miyake-jima flew every day with no issue against Tokyo. All of the B-24s and B-29s had to be frequently rested. I was able to fly my B-24s from Okinawa, Amami Oshima, Yakashima and Tanegashima against targets in southern and central Japan up to 6 days in a row if I was able to accept extreme fatigue.
Here is my summary on what I found after 6 months of strategic bombing:
THE AIR WAR....REFLECTIONS ON STRATEGIC BOMBING OF JAPAN
I finished one game of stock WitP in 2006 that ended on 1/1/45. In that game....the Allies had accrued 10,000 strategic bombing points total.....all from B-29s based in the Marianas attacking from July 1944 to 1/1/45.
In this AE game.....the Allies amassed over 30,000 strategic points total......mostly from B-24s flying from Okinawa and islands off the southern coast of Japan in an assault that also was staged from July 1944 to 12/44.
I know that the scoring for strategic bombing losses is different for the 2 games.....but still the order of magnitude of destruction in this current AE game was far greater than in my previous WitP game.
I think that trying to strategic bomb Japan only with B-29s from island bases in the Marianas is insufficient to create the damage needed to put the Allies over the top. The main problem is the extreme range from the Marianas to Japan.......the way that AE models fatigue and op losses for long range missions simply prevents the B-29s(at least the 2 earliest models of the B-29) from a robust enough operational tempo to inflict significant strategic bombing damage. The B-29s are lucky if they can sortie more than 8-10 times/mo and the replacements dont keep up with ops losses..... even in the face of negligible flak and fighter defenses. I saw this range-based operational loss effect early on in the game with my transport AC.......just trying to fly supplies unopposed into rear area bases in Burma from India resulted in the C-47 Skytrains leading all Allied plane types in losses for the 1st 2 years of the war.....all to ops.
I think that it is better for the Allies to recapture Luzon as quickly as possible. Strategic bombing missions can be initially launched against southern Japan from a level 9 airfield at Aparri. Okinawa needs to be captured......you can construct a level 8 airfield at Naha and a level 6 airfield at Nago. Naha also provides you with an excellent front line naval base for refueling, rearming and repairs. Amami Oshima gives you a level 6 airfield and Tanegashima gives you a level 7 airfield and then you can get all your B-24s and long range fighters into the mix.
The first 10,000-15,000 strategic bombing points are relatively easy to amass....after that it becomes significantly more difficult to score more strategic loss points....especially at a favorable victory point ratio. Switching targets from southern Japan to the large industrialized cities of central Japan...Kobe/Osaka/Nagoya/Yokohama/Tokyo.....endurance and extreme range again became a factor as the B-24 crews' fatigue ramped up considerably and I ran out of long range P-38Ls and nearly ran out of the P-47D25s.
I got to a point where I couldnt make a dent in the 3:1 point ratio needed for auto victory.
The turning point was capturing the island of Miyake-jima off thre coast of central Japan and building a level 5 airfield there. This enabled the Allies to not only base Corsairs and medium bombers to help reduce the cities of central Japan.....but it also enabled the Allies to make use of the USMC fighter pilot pools which were very extensive. The Japanese Home Island fighter force was quickly overwhelmed and the medium bombers were able to fly virtually every day(as weather allowed) without fatgue as the range was so short.
As far as targeting......MP attacks work best against nearly virgin cities with large MP......this is the most cost effective way to damage HI/LI. As city damage and MP damage increase it becomes significantly more difficult to create the fires needed to damage the HI/LI. Precision bombing of HI.....and especialy LI.....has diminished returns and is very time consuming.
As far as precision bombing, it is most effective(in descending order) for resources/shipyards/refineries/armaments/AC factories.
As far as using carrier bombers, they are most effective(in descending order) for resources/shipyards and then(to a lesser extent) refineries/armaments/AC factories.
Weather seems to be the biggest determinate of damage inflicted and it is usualyy bad over most of Japan. Using 'Commanders Choice" scored some points for me(and gave me a bit of insght into targeting for precision bombing) but overall I was disappointed as the "Commander" repeatedly bombed cities with poor weather and targeted MP in small agrarian cities.
Ive attached a screenshot of Japan with islands noted with the greatest potential for airfields. off the south coast of Japan, the Allies can acquire a level 8 AF at Tsushima and level 7 AFs at Nakadori-jima, Fukue-jima and Koshiki-jima. Off the central coast of Japan, the Allies can acquire level 5 AFs at Izu Oshima and Miyake-jima and a level 4 AF at Hachiro-jima.
