Timmyab, though I respect your view, and I agree that German overconfidence was a problem, it was also a problem everywhere. More than that, I prefer to not think in terms of what the Germans did wrong asmuch as what the Soviets did right. A lot Eastern Front historiography explains much of the war with the Germans as the active agent and the Soviets as a passive object. So we explain AGS's hard going as a failure of the German plan or the change of direction at Kiev as a Hitler induced mistake, without considering what the Soviets were doing that caused these situations to arise in the first place.
In the Center and North, the Soivets experienced a total breakdown in C & C, which allowed them to be encircled by German spearheads. In the South, mainly do to Vassily and Kirponos, the Soviets (disobeying direct STAVKA ordes, mind) were much more prepared. Now the game tries to model this by giving them relatively smaller penalties, but due to IGOUGO rules this becomes largely irrelevent when the real reason for AGS stalling were due to maneuver, not fighting prowess (Soviet Mech corps were mobilized and thrown at the Germans). This meant that instead of advancing through roads and terrain, the Germans had to stop and fight a much larger armored force in a series of desperate battles which they won. If AGS was reinforced they would have won these battles more handsomely, but they would still have had to fight them. Ultimately this seals the fate of any large enveloping maneuver, because instead of racing through the country side and cutting off SW Front, AGS armor was tied down for the first critical week establishing armor superiority over its Soviet equivalent. Here's a picture (wikipedia, beware), of the kind of fighting 11rh Panzer had from 23-30 June as it was attacked on all sides. Here's Halder's diary:
"In the Army Group South sector, heavy fighting continues on the right flank of Panzer Group 1. The Russian 8th Tank Corps has effected a deep penetration of our front and is now in the rear of the 11th Panzer Division. This penetration has seriously disrupted our rear areas between Brody and Dubno. The enemy is threatening Dubno from the southwest… the enemy also has several separate tank groups acting in the rear of Panzer Group 1, which are managing to cover considerable distances."
That's the problem with the south in the early game, as the Soviets were attacking German armor almost immediately after they crossed the border. This can't be modeled in an IGOUGO system unless a new option (Strategic/Operational Reserve) is added which actually moves reserve units towards the area of combat. (TOAW had this option, IIRC)
