20/20 Hindsight Versus the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

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20/20 Hindsight Versus the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Hello Forum,

I’m going to keep an AAR of my upcoming battle with Thomas (tlkiilerich). This is my first PBEM, Thomas has a few under his belt and we will be playing Scenario 2, so it may be a short AAR.

Thomas is from/ in Denmark and I am on the East Coast, U.S., he is working on turn 1 as we speak. In the meantime, I’m going to introduce the two of us and make a few preliminary notes about Allied strategy for the war.

I write/ talk a lot, most of these notes are for my own thoughts, so, feel free to read/ skip what you like.

First, I am going to plead for some general advice here. I’ve never played a human, so I may find myself to be quickly outmatched. General advice is cool from the peanut gallery, but if you’ve played Thomas before or have some sort of insight into his strategy, please don’t ruin our game by giving me too much information. I don’t think he will keep an AAR, so direct OPSEC violation shouldn’t be a problem. Just keep me honest.

Also, any advice on logistics of a PBEM versus an AI game would be appreciated. Anything (that is not strategy related) about playing a PBEM that I need to know as a complete boot?
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

So, introductions:

Thomas is a “Mustang” in the Danish Army (not sure what Danes call Mustangs). A Mustang is an enlisted soldier who goes to the dark side (becomes an officer). In my opinion (no offense to professional officers out there) Mustangs are the best type of officer. They are more mature, and understand the travails of enlisted life, and therefore are often less/ or more sympathetic to enlisted complaints than regular officers. He finished the Danish version of OCS this past Friday, that’s a major milestone. Congratulations! Like I mentioned, he is an experienced PBEM player. I do not know anything about his play style or past routes to victory (or defeat). I only know he professes to love micromanaging the Japanese economy. This encourages me, because I was worried when looking for an opponent that they may muddle up the economy and lose the game with no brilliance on my part.

Me: I am a former enlisted US Marine, deployed to Iraq twice, Kosovo, and Africa. Was in the 2nd Marines, so you can bet I will not force the Warlords to land at Tarawa again, as that was a dark day in our battalion’s history.

I’ve played WitP since 2005, got AE the day it came out. I’ve brought several games to the beginning of ’44, but by then I had always broken the AI so bad it was no longer fun to play. In my latest game I never lost Burma, and I retook the Philippines and was prepping for a Formosa assault when I did the math and realized the AI had no more capital ships and no land army to speak of. Because I am obsessed with the game I decided to take on a human despite having a very busy schedule. Both Thomas and I have busy schedules, so there may be extended pauses in the game, but we have made solemn oaths to one another to carry it out to the bitter end.

I have a busy schedule because I recently finished grad school and am beginning a career as an historian. I focus on Middle Eastern/ colonial history because (today) it pays the bills, but my real passion is WW2 history. Despite my degree and my passion for WW2 history, I am frequently put to shame by forum members because of this community’s unbelievably detailed knowledge. Thomas and I want to play a historically-minded game (more on this later), so, please keep me honest here. If I start plotting some crazy assault that you guys know could never happen for logistical/ political reasons, call me out on it.

The title of the AAR is a nod to my love of history. We all have 20/20 hindsight of the war today, but then this game provides a wonderful fog of war that muddles up our preconceived notions of how the war should have gone.

I've edited the AAR name to give it a more adversarial feel after Thomas wiped out Pearl Harbor in one strike.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

House Rules

I am at a disadvantage here, but I hope it makes for an interesting long-term game. Thomas has agreed to not abuse PDU and R & D settings.

From our emails:

Use of political points:

Generally I have no problem with using the PP “cheat” to buy out units for 1/3 the price by switching commands to restricted HQs (for example, switch I Corps to West Coast in order to buy out a bunch of WC units, then switch I Corps back to a combat, non-restricted command). Of course, deployed units must be attached to the national HQ in which they are deployed, so, if I bring Indian Divisions to Burma, I will attach them to a combat, non-restricted command instead of simply marching restricted units into a combat zone. The only exception to this rule is NoPac, Pearl Harbor area (from Lihue to Hilo), and Canadian soil. These can be defended by units assigned to the West Coast IX fighter/ bomber wing commands. That is, I can attach units to a non-deployable command to defend what I consider to be essential regions part of “WC.” I will make similar concessions to you when you are defending the home islands later in the war.

Strat Bombing:

No strategic bombing in China until Jan 1944; strategic bombing anywhere else is OK at any time.

No 4E bombing below 10,000 feet

First turn:
Japanese: Only one port strike. Otherwise, do your worst, hit everything/ anything you wish, no restrictions.

Allied: I will only move units in China EXCEPT Force Z. I really want to save Force Z from a pointless loss since you have scenario 2 assets.

Game settings:

Fog of War: ON December 7th Surprise: ON

Advanced Weather Effects: ON

Reliable USN Torps: OFF

Player Defined Upgrades: ON

Realistic R&D: OFF

Historical First Turn: OFF

No Unit Withdrawal: OFF

Reinforcements: FIXED
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Allied Strategy:


Flying in the face of Marine infantryman stereotypes, I am extremely cautious. I will try to take a lot of rear-area bases, build them up, and then construct a massive schwerpunkt before beginning anything major. I can see this being in 1946 sometime, and Thomas quitting because I am boring. I recognize that this is not the best way to play a human, and so here I have to offer my paean to canoerebel.

Despite the fact that I am a proud Yankee, Dan has influenced how I think about the game to an enormous degree (we’ll see if he managed to influence how I actually play the game). The idea of an extremely aggressive defense, long-range raids (thinking about his very successful CV raid around Hokkaido) and his playing to the maxim “the Japanese can go anywhere they want, but they cannot go everywhere” will be the philosophy I strive to follow. With all that in mind, I am still planning on playing very historically. I will always try to keep in mind real political concerns (the war in Europe, the impact of massive casualties on western public opinion, etc.), and I will always try to keep 1940’s era logistics in mind. The US could rapidly move half a million troops to Kuwait in 1991 because of lesson learned in 1943. In ’42, there will be no massive, coordinated amphibious assaults made up of a rainbow of nationalities that never coordinated with one another. (KNIL’s success defending the DEI should point towards how a rainbow force would have operated in 1942).

With all of this in mind, I have a general strategy that I will attempt to enact, but I of course will have to remain flexible, and attempt to refuse Thomas from forcing me to react to his necessary early-game aggressions.

I am a convert to Canoe’s obsession with NoPac. I see it as an absolute must (I think it’s great that PzH took it all from him, I’m eagerly waiting to see how Dan reacts/ doesn’t react). In my opinion simply building up NoPac and occasionally bombing the Kuriles, combined with an occasional raid in the Hokkaido region, forces Japan to divert LCUs, air groups, HQs and support troops to a remote, completely worthless theater. In 1942 the undermanned Allies can tie down more units sitting around in NoPac than by actively fighting.

I will not get stuck in an uneven arctic battle, but I will attempt to occupy NoPac in force. The plan is to eventually have a size 7 airfield at Shemya Island and a size 8 port at Adak. This will allow for a great sub base, staging ground, and general threat. Unless the situation dictates, I have no plans to hit Honshu from this theater.

My general strategy is conventional: Cut off the SRA from the Home Islands.

To do this the game will unfold in four stages:

1942:

a. Spoiling attacks (unsettle Thomas and keep us interested in the game)
b. Defense
Avoid autovictory by denying India and Oz, not losing 5 million Chinese soldiers.
c. consolidate lines of supply, rear area bases
Everything south of Tabiteau, connect Pearl Harbor with Oz by way of Noumea/ New Zealand.
d. Train!

1943:

a. Force my way into the DEI/ PM/ Horn Island/ Timor/ Moluccas (Maybe too optimistic for ‘43)

1944:

a. Philippines
Bypass Luzon and Mindano, take Panay (with lvl 9 airfields and RRs) and Palawan to isolate
b. Formosa (strat bombing base)

1945:

Strategic bombing, possible Invasion of Honshu

Before everybody starts wailing and gnashing their teeth about rigid plans, this is simply a general direction I will move towards until Thomas gives me reason to think otherwise. Basically, I am going to unify MacArthur and the Navy, and ignore CentPac in favor of going straight up the middle. I will probably not take all of the Philippines (even though I want the level 9 port) but I will seek to isolate it with the main objective being Formosa (huge base for bombing Japan).

Any thoughts peanut gallery?
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Immediate strategy:

1942:

Spoiling attacks:

I will raid with my CVs anywhere the KB is not. If he launches a full scale invasion of India or Oz I will launch my own invasion in CentPac or NoPac

I will have Marines prepping for Canton/ Baker/ Tabiteau for a quick smash and grab if he takes these

Defense

Defense of India and OZ:

The philosophy here is to strongly defend the key cities, letting all else fall (with spirited rearguard actions), and then trying to encircle main columns with maneuver forces. In those strong key cities, I will be assembling Corps-sized QRFs (Quick reaction Forces) to assault his supply lines. So, if he takes a major port and marches towards my key cities, I will try to initiate a war of maneuver using my QRF.

In OZ: I will let all of Australia fall from Darwin to Port Hedland, and from Townsville to Brisbane. I will do rearguard actions, but I will try to not lose large formations. A QRF built around I Australian Corps, all armor, and 8th, 6th, 7th Divisions (as they come online) will be my maneuver element. I will defend Port Augusta-Sydney with as much strength I can muster (I'm thinking Port Augusta is a likely landing zone and reinforcing it for beachhead defense)

In India: Same as Oz, but my main cities will be triangle from Karachi-Bombay-Delhi, (2,000AV in ea. city). I will have a very strong rearguard in Calcutta (with retreat route to Delhi defended in force) and I will try to get all of NCAC into India before Burma is lost. I will have stout defenses at Diego Garcia and Socotra, along with counter-invasion forces prepping to take them back after KB leaves.

If I have secure shipping lanes, I will move the QRF from the region not under attack to the region under attack (So, if India is his main thrust, I Oz Corps will go to India, if possible)

In the meantime, I will be building a powerful assault corps around I Corps (US) (40, 41, 43 div). It will launch, under cover of every capital ship I can muster, to attack wherever the main Japanese attack is not. Either Burma or New Guinea. By default they are prepping for Port Moresby.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Tactical considerations:

Political Point expenditures:


December: buy out 8th Oz Div, Refugees, 87th Mountain rgmt
January: All PPs dedicated to NCAC
February: All PPs dedicated to NoPac units
March: All PPs dedicated to CentPac units
April: Backfill/ unit commander, etc.
May-July: Save all PPs to buy out I Corps (US)

How do I get NCAC to India before the fall of Burma? Should I reinforce Burma? Buy out the Corps immediately? NCAC’s presence in India would make the place almost impossible to fall, as the Chinese get 350 squads a month and those 3 Corps are epic-huge.

How do I get 8th OZ from Malaysia to Australia safely? I think those two regiments will be the first thing I buy.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by Fokko »

Thomas i a worthy opponent , you will have a hands full .
I got my handed over so badly on oct .42 it was no fun for him any more .

Good luck , i will follow this one .

Stuck on the treadmill
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Wow, Oct '42 is early. I hope to keep my head up a bit longer. Thanks for the well wishes!
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

12/7/1941

The first turn was an unmitigated disaster for the allies. I lost five battleships, as well as a huge amount of airframes destroyed on the ground. For normal days, I will fill out the below form for each day’s update, but today requires a bit more discussion.

First, Thomas split the KB. At least the Kaga, but I think two CVs are between Borneo and Singapore. They got Force Z which we agreed could flee Singapore without going like a lamb to its slaughter at Kota Bharu. If he had gone only to destroy Force Z, I would have been miffed, but he is clearly escorting an invasion force, that I’m guessing is going straight for Palembang. Repulse will probably (might?) make it, PoW will sink for sure tomorrow, I can only hope it draws the morning strike away from Repulse. Part of the blame lies on me. I accidentally refueled Force Z at Singapore before sending it off, so it only made a few hexes towards Java before getting lit up. Lesson learned.

Pearl Harbor: I have run about 20-30 first turns against the AI, and I’ve never lost more than 1 BB. Today, four are outright sunk, and the others are all past 70 float damage. I also lost some auxiliaries and two DDs.

How does this happen with KB split? This leads me to ask some mechanics questions in the post below.

Location of KB: KB is split, at least two CVs are between Borneo and Singapore, the remainder are three hexes NE of Pearl Harbor (all directions in this AAR are according to the map, ignoring “true” directions).

WC/ Canada/ NoPac:
Nothing

CentPac: Disastrous strike into Pearl Harbor. If he hits again tomorrow I will lose all 8 BBs

SoPac: Nothing

Oz: Nothing

DEI: CV strike force in the region, looks like it's escorting a Palembang invasion TF

Philippines: Disastrous airfield strikes, lost most of my P-40s, Catalinas, and Forts. SNLF landings at Vigan and Atimonan, both shock on first turn and take the bases.

China: Airfield strikes

Malaysia: Extremely effective airfield strikes, most of the CW airforce in this region is gone.

Burma: Strong raids on Rangoon, killed a lot of buffaloes. I am glad he didn’t bomb the AVG since I didn’t move them (No movement except in China for Allies’ first turn, I guess I could have argued that AVG is part of China, Duh!)

India:
Nothing yet. The aggression he is showing in Malaysia makes me think he may have designs on India.


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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

My Plea for help:

So, I mentioned above that this is my first PBEM and I will need some help both in strategy, and in mechanics. Below are two mechanics questions:

What did Thomas do with his airgroup settings that is obviously so amazing? He sent probably only four CVs as part of KB to Pearl Harbor and he utterly destroyed the place. Below is the combat report (I will usually not post CRs b/c I dislike AARs that rely on them, but this is an important one):

Allied aircraft
no flights (B/c of December 7th Surprise?)

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 5 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 24 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 2 destroyed on ground
PBY-5 Catalina: 104 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 4 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 11 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 1 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 23 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 2 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 33 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 4 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 19 damaged
SBD-1 Dauntless: 1 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 5 damaged
F4F-3 Wildcat: 4 damaged
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 7 damaged
O-47A: 1 destroyed on ground
A-20A Havoc: 9 damaged
A-20A Havoc: 1 destroyed on ground
C-33: 2 damaged
R3D-2: 2 damaged
R3D-2: 1 destroyed on ground
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
AV Wright
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB California, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
DD Shaw, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA San Francisco, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AV Curtiss
AV Tangier
xAKL Manini
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
CL Helena, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Phelps, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DM Pruitt, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Honolulu, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Narwhal, Bomb hits 1
AVP Swan, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DMS Perry, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Henley, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Detroit, Bomb hits 1, on fire


Allied ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Repair Shipyard hits 4 (HOW did this happen?)
Airbase hits 23
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 45
Port hits 11
Port fuel hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
14 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
11 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
7 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb


Included in the damage roster is some hits on my drydock. I thought these could only be hit through strategic attack? Is this true? Or does port attack also hit the repair facilities?

I’m looking closely at his altitudes here: 3,000, 2,000, and 1,000 feet for the bombers. He obviously could only do this b/c of Dec 7th surprise, correct?

1) How do I do what Thomas did in a PBEM?

My biggest concern is I don’t want to go into this game using tactics that apply only to the AI. For example, my carriers air wing is generally set to
All bombers at 9,000 feet (in hopes of getting coordinated strikes.
60% CAP (2/3 of the cap is set at 9,000 feet to coordinate with bombers, 1/3 at 15,000 feet to protect the fleet.

40% escort

I will change this default setting based on the target, but that is typically how I do it. It’s always worked devastatingly against the AI, what do you guys set your air wings to?

2) Amphibious assault shock attack

Thomas landed at Atimonan and Vigan in the Philippines. The SNLFs that landed immediately shock attacked on landing. These are regular bases, not atolls. No paratroopers were involved as far as I can see. How did they shock attack, and better yet, how can I make my initial units shock attack?
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

With the destruction Thomas unleashed over Pearl Harbor, I am inclined to think he may spend another day there to ensure the destruction of the last of my battleships. This is sad. But my anger at Thomas (and I felt so warmly towards him only yesterday!) may be pushing me towards an attempted strike at his oilers. I can see them, they are a bit east of French Frigate Shoals. A high speed run by Enterprise could catch them on their way north. Of course, if the KB retires this turn I would lose the Enterprise in addition to all of my BBs… Will he stay or won’t he? With all the BBs pushing 80 flt (and he got good intel on the damage he cause based off his gleeful email) why wouldn’t he stick around to sink them all?


This is fun!
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by DOCUP »

jb123, I am no expert on the mechanics of the game so can't help with your questions. I am in my first PBEM game also. Save your carriers.    Pup all your fighters.  Make him pay for a second strike.  Layer your CAP also 5k, 10k, 15k, and 20k.  As to your plans as long as your flexible you should be ok. 
 
What scenerio are you playing?
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Thanks for commiserating, I have yet to commit to order the Enterprise on its (suicide?) mission. I will certainly order every fighter at pearl to fly CAP, whether or not they do really doesn't matter. If he strikes again I may be the first person in AE history to lose 9 battleships in 2 days.

We're playing scenario 2.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by Crackaces »

I would say this AAR is a must read .. tm.asp?m=2761796 it is GreyJoy vs Radier .. Radier a very good player took almost everything vs. a newbie .. then .. the Hokkiado Hurricane ...[;)]

Good Luck!! I also have an AAR from a newbie standpoint .. I document my planning fairly detailed .. this is scenario #1 although . a much different animal you are engaged in ..
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by DOCUP »

You won't be the first person.  Look at Greyjoys first AAR.  Good read.
 
Get out of southern Burma ASAP move the the northern bases and build up your forts.  Start your supply lines quickly to Rangoon get as much supply to northern Burma and China as you can.  Japan moves faster in a PBEM game than the AI. 
 
Also I was told that if you don't have alot of people posting in your AAR its not a bad thing.  It means your not screwing up yet.  lol  I go by that since I don't have alot of people posting in mine.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Oh man, I was hoping the comparison to Greyjoy wouldn't come so early! It took Rader 6 days of sitting off of Pearl to disintegrate everything, Thomas managed it in one strike! Although, I'm really hoping that Thomas wants to finish everything off, because orders are given to the Enterprise to strike the oilers. I'm almost done with the massive first turn, so tomorrow or the next day I'll know if it was a good call or not.

I sure could use some of Greyjoy's optimism.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Blurred by the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by DOCUP »

Look in your replacement menu's.  Thats where your optimism will come from.
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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Versus the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

12/8/41- 12/16/41

Thomas is on vacation for the next two weeks (jealous!), so I will catch us up to this point in the game.

At the macro level, Thomas is extremely efficient. He has the opening moves down, and knows exactly how far he can push it without my being able to bloody his nose. With those caveats, I have had some minor “victories,” and am poised tomorrow (game time, two weeks in real time) to try to ruin his day, a bit.

Location of KB: KB hit Pearl (destroying the fleet), and left immediately. I guess he was happy with the damage he inflicted. He immediately stationed off of Wake, and escorted a stout Wake invasion force, which promptly took the island. The KB dropped off the radar yesterday, I’m guessing (hoping) he had to replenish at Truk. A raid into NoPac could really hurt me right now.

WC/ Canada/ NoPac: Lots of supplies and units moving here. I am aggressively reinforcing Annette Island, Kodiak, Anchorage, Whittier, Seward (a nice rail-linked set of air bases) and Cold Bay. Since I evacuated the units I wanted out of Malaysia and the DEI, NoPac has political point priority until defenses are settled. We have an HR agreement that NoPac can be defended by WC units attached to fighter command, so I’m paying only 1/3 cost for all the WC units I need here. I am a dufus, and sent some extremely valuable APs and AKs to the area to move troops about. I should have used the xAPs and xAKs…. I’m holding my breath that KB doesn’t raid until I get them out.

CentPac: Had he stayed for a second strike, I would have lost all 8 BBs. But, his focus on the fleet left my airfield, Catalinas, fighters, and Forts all relatively unscathed, so I would have hurt him with my CAP. I’m not as depressed as I was on Dec 8th. I have a strong 170 or so fighters on Pearl that, with moral recovered and slowly training, will preclude a raid in the future. Short of an all-out invasion, Pearl is safe. I will have four old battlewagons ready to bombard atolls in about 18 months or so.

Wake fell. I lost the Marine fighters, as I was unwilling to risk the Lady Lex.

US CVs In what could have been a major disaster, Enterprise, fleeing from KB, took a torp from an I boat. Only 4 float damage, I hope Thomas thinks it’s out of commission for a bit. But, we destroyed the pesky AMC that raids SoPac shipping lanes before turning back to Pearl. CVs are teaming up with Saratoga to cover NoPac operations. It will be a week until they are all there.

No Midway strike,
I’m getting supplies and the 87th Mountain regiment there as we speak, forts are on the way to level 3. A Marine Raider BN is also prepping for the Island, ready to be flown in at the last minute from FFS.


SoPac:
Thomas is being aggressive here. He has already snatched up Lae, Shortlands, and Manus. A strong CA TF bombarded Rabaul, which was really a blessing. For little return on his end, he revealed a strong surface presence in the region. I had the Australian SCTF (3 CA, 2 CLs, 3 DDs) lurking in the area hoping to hit invasion TFs. I will not commit them now, as the Allies lose every surface engagement against heavy cruisers at this stage of the war.

Oz:
I have by defense slowly formulating. The victory in Operation Gallant Sir Robin (see Malaysia below) really makes me feel warm and fuzzy about OZ. I got the 8th OZ Division out intact, barring a successful raid between Diego Garcia and Perth, the entire division will be formulated under I Oz Corps in Brisbane acting as a QRF along with 7th OZ and a good chunk of the excellent OZ armor units.

DEI: Thomas took the essential bases quickly and is obviously intent on shutting this area down fast. The MKB (Mini KB) and the Kaga CVTF are at either end of the DEI, sinking fleeing merchants as fast as they can rearm. I lost most of the Philippine merchant marine, including the CL Boise (a very bad omen for the game). Bettys are based at Sinkawang and will soon be based at Manado. All of northern Borneo fell, Tarakan taken. A large group of TFs, including CAs and CVEs has pushed deep into the DEI, past Kendari. Destination Timor?

The most exciting things that happened here was a huge BB TF bombarded Batavia. The CA Takao took a mine hit (reported sunk, but doubtful). I’m very happy about that. Why would someone do this though? Prevent forts? I have two level 4 airfields next to Batavia linked by rail (where most of my planes were), so he’s not shutting down the airfield. Plus, he runs the risk of damaging strategic resources by bombarding. Not sure it was worth it.

A disbanded AK damaged by Tarakan’s CD guns was sunk in port by a Dutch bombing raid.

Tomorrow I have 27 Dutch bombers and 10 Philippine’s B-17Ds hitting the completely undefended oil fields at Tarkan. I have high hopes for this raid. I wondered if it was kosher to do this in our type of game, so I started a thread here: Gamey-ness? The consensus among formuites was that that I would be remiss to NOT bomb the oil.

I didn’t bother trying to get fuel out. I always do against the AI, but Thomas is not the AI! The way I figure, the tankers can carry more fuel from Abadan or LA over the course of the war than they can by getting destroyed in the DEI. They would get destroyed. The area is positively infested with SCTF, CVTFS, and Betties/ Nells, only one week into the war! I did, however, manage to lift about 20k supplies from Balikpapan to Java.

Philippines:
The airforce crumbled immediately. I have made good use of the Mindanao B-17s (hitting Tarakan tomorrow). But all else just died. Quickly. I withdrew what I could to my pools, but not a lot was saved. I had no real aerial victories. Ports and airfields at Clark and Manila are at about 100% damaged with only one fort put up before the destruction. PT boats were able to disrupt landings, causing them to withdraw. Thomas opsec violated himself, saying he had multiple collisions. The PTs didn’t fire a single Torp. Just showed up, tried to run away from the invasion TFs, leading to all sorts of confusion. I really like this modeling of the PTs. I imagine that’s exactly the effect 12 fast torpedo boats would have on an invasion convoy: pandemonium, but not a lot of real torpedo hits.

All units evacuated in an orderly fashion to Clark (except a small delaying force at Bataan). I have 55k supply and one level fort. This *should* keep a couple big units tied down for a minute.

Allied Subs: I allocated 20 PPs for the worst S-boat commanders. This has paid dividends in torp launches, but bad torps means no hits of note. A Dutch boat put two DUDs in Kaga (I violently cursed out the computer). A few cruisers got DUDs from US boats. A few AKs and APs (two with troops) are sunk by Dutch and S boats. No sub losses yet (except that one idiot S-boat headed towards Manila that auto-disbanded before I caught it, sunk by a port raid).

China: Oh, I smell disaster in this region. He’s being aggressive here. Hong Kong fell quickly. But for some reason he disbanded about 20 xAKLs in port there. Chinese bombers from Kweilin and Kukong are raiding the port tomorrow to see if they can bag a few. He is aggressively bombing airfields, especially Changsa, but I still have level four forts and no airfield damage. His troops are moving quickly, but he caught very few of my units so far. Tsiaotso is heavily garrisoned and building forts. Very little supply here though. Normal bases fell to Chinese smash and grab: Ichang, the two up by Russia. So far my reallocation of troops is going smoothly. I need a month or so to get settled, then the slog begins. NOTE TO SELF: Don’t forget to turn off resource repair at Chengchow, I did for a week, probably burned through a bunch of supply. I keep repair “on” at the light industry and resources at Changsa until the Burma road is closed. Not sure if it’s a good Idea, but I don’t plan on letting this place fall, and I will need those supplies when Burma falls. See my detailed breakdown of China defenses below.

Malaysia:
Thomas is a very proficient player, and it is evidenced by his assault in the area. Singapore will fall early, both because of his masterful tactics, and because I decided to withdraw 8th OZ. By using tanks and paratroopers, he cut off the Alor Star units and retreated Kota Bharu and Kuantan units. This leaves me with two decent Indian BDES, a plethora of weak Bns and Malaysian units, and a little “armor” and arty in Singers. Three BDEs are stuck in the jungle, and I have low hopes for them getting to Singers in time, as Thomas landed at an undefended Mersing yesterday.

Operation Gallant Sir Robin:

On the other hand, I paid the PPs and had the AVG join the fight, allowing level 3 (almost 4) forts to be constructed. I have 60k supply. The AVG, Buffaloes, and a few Dutch fighters performed gallantly, shooting down a bunch of Nells and a goodly number of Kaga’s Kates and Vals. Also, I evacuated the entire Singers navy in a safe and orderly manner (minus PoW, lost on Dec 7th, but plus a moderately damaged Repulse), along with 2 OZ BDES, the RN BF, and the NZ engineers.

It cost me about 40 Buffaloes and 10 AVG P-40s. Below is a screenie of air losses to date.

So, I have a game engine problem: When Thomas transfers fighters to a base, I can see it before my turn giving orders, the Japanese, on the other hand, cannot see when the Allies transfer fighters to a base until after the turn runs. This “tweak” in the game engine was essential for me to get the AVG (with its miserable max range of 14) down to Singers. If he caught the AVG at any of the small-ish bases I had to transfer through, he could have hit them before they arrived. Instead, I think he was shocked when the AVG was suddenly flying CAP over a fleeing navy. This doesn’t feel right, and will probably hurt any Japanese player in the late war when they are trying to be sneaky.


Burma: I am evacuating the Indian BDE detached from 17th Indian Division, two Burma BNs and the British BN, three BFs, the air and the Corps HQ. I need them in India. They strat moved to Katha and will march the long walk to Imphal over the next month or so. Burma division is combined at Rangoon where I am allocating 1 week for it to rest, before I send it SE of Pegu, in the rough hex between Moulmein and Pegu. This will be it. Once he gets enough AV here to shock across the river and retreat the miserable folks in this division, Burma will be lost as fast as he can drive. I am only keeping one BN and one BF in each base along the rail line to protect from paratroopers. I don’t know if this is a viable tactic, but, splitting the Burma division makes it less than worthless. I really want to get NCAC troops into India before I lose Burma, but I cannot afford to buy them until the NCAC HQ arrives in May. May will be way too late.

India: Nothing of note, I have troops and supplies moving to Diego Garcia, Socotra, and Male as I write. Everything else is evacuated off map. See my defense article for a detailed breakdown of my India defense.


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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Versus the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Regional defensive plans

I wrote a lot here, just trying to get down my defensive philosophy. I would be excited if anyone wants to read through all/some of this and offer comments. Otherwise, maybe some players will find something useful in my outline below.

I write this at midnight after a few beers, so get through the style/ grammar at your own risk.

As per my overall plan, I intend to fight desperately for Australia through Pearl Harbor, while keeping Japanese units tied down in NoPac, and if he invades, in India. I will not try to reconquer India, but rather keep him busy while I prepare for another assault (of course, if he opts for Oz instead of India, if will be a different story).

CentPac:

At the macro level I want open, safe, rational supply lines between OZ and the West Coast. To do this I will rely on an early warning system (search A/C and pickets) and strong SCTF and ASW assets in the region to make it painful to conduct cheap raids. Large/ extremely valuable convoys will be escorted by CVs (for example, when I occupy Suva, or move I Corps to Oz from the WC).

The main route is San Francisco – Pearl Harbor – Tahiti (Bora Bora) – Auckland – Sydney. All of the main “hub” islands will have strong (100+) CAP to make for “safe” ports. This should at the least make CV raids very expensive for the KB.

Early warning system will consist of a chain of strongly defended (by LCU/ Mine/ PT boats /subs) islands/ atolls stretching from Pearl Harbor to OZ between Japanese areas and my SLOCs. The idea is it will be too costly for him to take ten atolls in order to easily threaten my SLOCs. I would rather force him to fight it out on ten atolls than try to duke it out on Suva or Noumea. The early warning chain will give me a minimum of 30 hexes from the edge of my search radius to the SLOC and 15 hexes from my picket lines. This is still a bit too close for CV raids (KB can fast move 18 hexes and strike at 7….)

My thoughts on Suva: I cannot occupy it in force until I buy out Americal and 27th Division (attached to I Amphib Corps. Given my PP calendar, Americal can’t make it until March, 27th could theoretically follow in April. This is very late in the game. These units will be prepping, and if I can occupy rather than invade, great. But I am willing to lose this Island. The Tonga Islands are better platforms, in my opinion. With an air HQ established in May, I can suppress Suva from a network of level 7 airfields in Tonga. Any thoughts on this? I really don’t want to be stuck in a position where I have fragments of units and low supplies (these are the conditions that allow huge armies to be destroyed in Malaysia and the Philippines, why reproduce it?)

The early-warning atolls/ Islands are:

Palmyra Atoll

Closely supported by large detachments/ air HQs built up at Christmas/ Fanning

Penrhyn Atoll

Seaplane base, USMC CD, SoPac BN, various NZ detachments, AV TF

Pago-Pago
I will fight for this Island, as I think I can get supplies/ reinforcements here before he can invade. 8th Marines, an Army BDE if I can swing it.

Tonga Islands (Vavua)
SoPac BDES, size six port and 7 airfields are nice, and will make a possible Suva invasion easier.
Occupy
Vava’u 6(3) 7(4)
Lifuka Atoll 4(1) 5(2)
Tongatapu 4(1) 7 (4)

Raoul Island

Norfolk Island

The Suva NZ BDE is here, as well as an OZ RN BF. Size six airfield to bomb Noumea. (B-17s need size 5)

Lord Howe Island

ASW platform, early warning search platform.


I want to add Canton to the list, 2nd and 6th Marines, along with tanks and combat engineers are prepping for a smash and grab. (it hasn’t fallen yet, but I assume it will).


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RE: 20/20 Hindsight Versus the Fog of War jb123 (A) Versus tlkiilerich (J)

Post by jb123 »

Midway Defense:

The 87th Mountain is really the perfect unit to defend Midway, as far as I can tell. It starts out like a strong battalion and can be bought off the WC for 150 PPs. It fills out to a full regiment. Depending on the danger level to Midway, I plan to either 1) stop it from filling completely out, so I don’t get the overstacking penalty, but can keep the CD, USAAF BF, and an ENG BN on the Island; or 2) fill it completely out and then have some flying boats take squads off the top, stationing them in French Frigate shoals. This will allow me to rapidly fly the remainder of the regiment to the Island if I smell an invasion, while avoiding overstacking penalties. A Marine raider BN, prepping for Midway, will be stationed at FFS ready to fly in on flying boats. I will land about 600 mines and an AMCwhen I feel threatened.
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