Iran assessment (no politics please)

[Lcp Purcell]

An Interesting report : Analyzing the Impact of Preventive
Strikes Against Iran’s Nuclear
Facilities

http://csis.org/files/publication/12090 ... trikes.pdf


I don't agree with all of it and it leaves out the two of the weapons Iran manufacturers which scare me the most

The Misagh 2 is an Iranian man-portable infrared guided surface to air missile.

The M47 Dragon, is a shoulder-fired, man-portable anti-tank missile
(and the weapon I carried in the Marine Corps)

[AW1Steve]

Check out Modern War Magazine this month (From Strategy & Tactics). Regardless if you play the game or not, they generally have a very good order of battle and an excellent , honest assesment of the military situation. And of course I always recommend the Strategy page. [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lcp Purcell

I don't agree with all of it and it leaves out the two of the weapons Iran manufacturers which scare me the most

It also leaves out the other weapon which should scare you--millions of young, mobile, angry Iranian men.

As is typical of these sorts of studies it doesn't consider much past the first 48 hours and is utterly in love with hardware and high-tech weapons. Have we learned nothing in the past decade?

[Canoerebel]

Great question. My bet is that the good men (and woman) of the Forum can handle this expertly and without politics.

As for me? I know absolutely nothing about this topic, so I will sit back, read, and learn.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Great question. My bet is that the good men (and woman) of the Forum can handle this expertly and without politics.

As for me? I know absolutely nothing about this topic, so I will sit back, read, and learn.

I don't recall, but do you have children of draft age, CR?

[AW1Steve]

I really have to wonder about some of the suggestions and conclusions. For example , why send out STEALTH B-2 bombers escorted by F-18s , which are decidely NON-stealthy? Why not just put your RADAR reflectors and running lights , while broadcasting a radio beacon that says "here I am!". [X(][:(]
And it completely ignores the fact that Iran"s greatest and most feared weapon is terroism. And it's 1st targets will be it's underdefended neightbors. I'm sorry , but the general feeling I got from the study was that it's just another one of those convoluted think tank studies that requires your enemy to do EXACTLY what you want them to. [:(]

And , as with most of those type studies, everything will be wonderful if you use a high tech solution. Call me cynical, but reading this study left me cold with a feeling of impending disaster. [:(]

[Lcp Purcell]

As for me? I know absolutely nothing about this topic, so I will sit back, read, and learn

US goals will to wage an air war only, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and their military industrial complex, with the ultimate goal of destabilizing the regime.

Iranian goals will be to draw America into committing ground forces where they can use asymmetrical warfare (guerrilla war). The Iranians have been provoking us in an effort to goad us into attacking because they also seek to make it a regional war. Most governments in the middle east are Sunni Muslim, and they almost all have a Shiite minority. Iran seeks to play the victim and then arm Shiite insurgents any place America has a presence. One of there major goals is to close shipping in the straits of Hormuz where about 20% of the worlds oil supply flows from, and then invoke a world wide outrage of America causing massive oil shock.

The Sunni Shiite split is very similar to the split between Catholics and the eastern Orthodox church, the Bishop of Rome said he is the leader of all the Bishops, the Eastern Orthodox said no all Bishops are equal, The 12 Imams of Persia said they get to lead the Muslim world. The Imams who did not like that idea became the Sunni. Important note those 12 are also the Iranian Supreme court, their chief justice is the commander and chief, matter of fact the President of Iran, is more like the English Prime minister back in merry old England when the King had all the power.

By the way Bahrain, (where the 5th Fleet HQ is) has a Sunni King and Government and the Shiite underclass makes up 70% of the population.

As far as closing the shipping, they have one DD and two KV class ships which will be toast on the oping day, but they also have a bunch of mini-subs and hundreds of speed boats equipped with torpedo launchers and mine-laying capabilities, and have been practicing swarming bigger ships from all directions with 100 speedboats at a time. The straits could be closed with artillery, but they also have a lot of mobile land to sea missiles. which will be very hard to find and hit. To keep the oil flowing we may need to occupy the the northern coast of the Persian Gulf.

Assuredly they will also start arming the Talabain with shoulder fired anti tank and surface to air missiles and will try to close the supply rout though Pakistan. Much has been said in the news about "the Pakistani tribal areas" what has not been said is the worlds largest tribe is the Pashtun people, now not every Pashtune is a Talabain, but every Talabain is a Pashtune. The Britts seeking to rule easily took the Pashtun tribe and split them down the middle half were part of Afghanistan and Half were part of Pakistan and they were a minority in both places. Iran will seek to cut that line of supply.

Iraq also has a Shiite majority and may tune into a hot zone again.

[Lcp Purcell]

Pakistan will get real interesting, Pakistan is made up of four ethic groups, The largest is Sunni and who makes up the bulk of the civilian middle class, the next largest also Sunni has ruled for decades and controls the military, there are the Pashtune or the tribal area, they too are Sunni, and Iran did fight a war with the Taliban back in the 90's but over the last decade they have giving a lot of 'humanitarian aid' to Afghan Pashtune, then in the Western desert of Pakistan is a group of Shiite who have been in open civil war with the Pakistani government for decades. Also Pakistan is dependent on Iran for natural gas supply. I would not trust them as a reliable friend.

Lebanon, Hizbula, will surely start lobbing rockets at Israel, and the last Israel Lebanon war of 2006, did not go well for Israel, Iran taught them those tactics I would expect any land warfare with Iran to follow the same tactics.

Crazy as it sounds the government we put in place in Iraq has very very close ties with Iran. Nouri al-Maliki the prime minister who is Shiite actually fled to Iran during the Iran-Iraq war and his militia was originally trained in Iran, unlike the leader of the largest Iraqi Shiite group/militia Muqtada al-Sadr, who fought the Iranians during the war, but then also fought the Americans during the next war. If Iran moves it's million man army it will be into Iraq, and the question is what part of the Iraqi people welcome them. The Kurds in Northern Iraq and north west Iran will be our staunch allies.

Saudi Arabia has about 15% Shiite minority, back in the 1930's they ruthlessly engaged in ethnic cleansing to get it down to those numbers.

The so called Arab spring shows just how much resentment there is to the strong men who rule the region, Iran will have a very fertile ground for requiting insurgents/terrorists.

[Icedawg]

"Iran assessment (no politics please)"

Discussing Iran without letting politics creep into the conversation?

Isn't that like talking about Pamela Anderson without mentioning her boobs?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't recall, but do you have children of draft age, CR?

I have sons 18 and 15. The former has no interest in the military (though he would be an ideal leader, IMO). The latter has a very high interest in the military and is currenty involved in Civil Air Patrol.

I think often about the Constitutional Unionists in Georgia (and the South) in the years leading up to secession and Civil War. Many of those men had served during the Mexican American War. They knew war was bad news. They could look at their sons and families and communities and see the horror to come. They knew they lived in a blessed and peaceful nation and that it was insanity to rip that apart. And yet they ultimately could not stop the war from coming.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

"Iran assessment (no politics please)"

Discussing Iran without letting politics creep into the conversation?

Isn't that like talking about Pamela Anderson without mentioning her boobs?

she's got boobs? [X(]

[Dili]

I only remember silicone buoys...i think they are floation improvement devices to help save people in baywatching...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't recall, but do you have children of draft age, CR?

I have sons 18 and 15. The former has no interest in the military (though he would be an ideal leader, IMO). The latter has a very high interest in the military and is currenty involved in Civil Air Patrol.

I think often about the Constitutional Unionists in Georgia (and the South) in the years leading up to secession and Civil War. Many of those men had served during the Mexican American War. They knew war was bad news. They could look at their sons and families and communities and see the horror to come. They knew they lived in a blessed and peaceful nation and that it was insanity to rip that apart. And yet they ultimately could not stop the war from coming.

On next-day reflection I see that my post could have been taken as aggressive or belittling. It was not intended that way and it seems you did not take it that way. I only asked as a way to illustrate my belief that, if war with Iran does come, it will not be over quickly, nor will it be a "support our troops--go to the mall" war. It will be all-out, horrible, intense, and could quite easily require a draft as well as income tax surcharges. A simple glance at a map coupled with a cursory understanding of both Iranian capabilities as well as social and cultural history should convince observant Americans that we're dealing with serious issues. The Iranian regime is in bet-the-country mode on this. They have already withstood crippling economic sanctions to keep their nuclear programs. Anyone who thinks they would stand down and meekly accept the results of air strikes does not understand Iranian history of the past 100 years. And they don't need a modern air force or armored divisions to create havoc. They are able to walk or drive to many "soft" locations on the globe. And they do not lack for young people quite willing to die for their beliefs.

[Canoerebel]

Bullwinkle, I understood, which is why I included the second part in my answer.

The entire situation in the Middle East is extremely tense and, purely from an academic standpoint, very interesting. Trying to put together the pieces of the puzzle to figure out what might happen is fascinating and just about impossible. I'd be nervous about my sons serving in the military, but I'd be even more nervous right now if we were residing in Israel. That little country is kind of isolated.

I never served in the military. I had no interest in doing so, which always surprised me since my dad proudly served and since I've always loved military history. Because I didn't have any interest, I was very glad there wasn't a draft. I'd prefer it remain that way. And, if either or both of my sons elects to serve for the right reasons, I'll be very proud of them, though I'll also worry about them, naturally.

I tend to be isolationist in my sentiments, but I also realize there are alot of smart people out there who are making decisions based upon a great deal of intelligence and input from many sources. I just hope the smart people making decisions are "good" people. Then, if forced to make tough decisions involving loss of life, well, you can hope it was the best decision under the circumstances. (Despite my propensity for isolation and peace, I realize there are things worth fighting for...or against.)

[AW1Steve]

Part of the problem is that the article , like the conceptions most people tend to have of a poetential gulf war, is that it will either be a cakewalk or armagendon. Like most things in life, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. No where in the article is mentioned the possibilites of a surgical strike (AKA "Praying Mantis") political warfare ( like manipulating a "Prague Spring" or an "Arab Spring") , a proxy war , or any other solution. The author comes out with a "bomb them back to the stone age" strategy that ignores the possibilities of unintended consequences. It for instance doesn't mention that Iran would to some degree use an attack to stabilize it's own crumbling power base. And Iran (and Persia before it) has had a reputation going back thousands of years as the local bully.

Basically I feel the article is like a college freshman submitting a rushed paper for what calls for a PHD candidate work. Or to paraphrase the late Maine comedian Marshal Dodge , "I could whittle you a better war plan". [:D]


War IS scarey gentlemen. But a very important part of the use of war is the THREAT of war. Hitler knew that. So did Stalin. And to counter such a threat , one can appease it (AKA Chamberlain) or face it down, such as Truman ,Reagan , (and to a lesser degree LeMay and Kissenger). But brinksmanship might lead to real war. Appeasement definately will. [:(]

[Lcp Purcell]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


Part of the problem is that the article , like the conceptions most people tend to have of a potential gulf war, is that it will either be a cakewalk or armagendon. Like most things in life, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. No where in the article is mentioned the possibilites of a surgical strike (AKA "Praying Mantis") political warfare ( like manipulating a "Prague Spring" or an "Arab Spring") , a proxy war , or any other solution. The author comes out with a "bomb them back to the stone age" strategy that ignores the possibilities of unintended consequences. It for instance doesn't mention that Iran would to some degree use an attack to stabilize it's own crumbling power base. And Iran (and Persia before it) has had a reputation going back thousands of years as the local bully.

The problem with a surgical strike, is Iran has repeated and publicly outlined their response to that; any attack by the USA or Israel, will result in Iran launching it's 10,000 conventional ballistic missiles at any and all US and Israel military bases they can reach. And an attempt to shut down shipping in the Gulf. The 10,000 number is probably an exaggeration but they have an lot. I am dubious to the accuracy of a lot of their missiles, (but they did put a few satellites into space and I don't think they are watching the weather) Many of our bases in the region are in populations centers, there will be collateral damage. To me this seems to be an attempt at dragging the other Gulf states into an overt alliance with Israel, which will not be at all popular within those countries. Many of those Monarchs, are already in a precarious political position. Iran might be bluffing but I doubt it this course of action they outlined makes logical sense.

Back a number of years ago the other threat they made was if Bombed by Israel or America the would "turn Iraq into a sea of fire" indicating they were intending to wage a proxy war like they do in Lebanon.

Now we have been engaging in a covert & Proxy war to some degree, somebody has been assassinating their scientists... we admitted we were the ones who carried out a really nasty cyber attack on them last year, (Stuxnet worm)

Philip Giraldi a former counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer of (CIA) writes : "While the media credits “the Israelis” in the assassinations of Iranian scientists, the reality is that no Israeli (or American) intelligence officer could possibly operate effectively inside Iran to carry out a killing. The assassinations, which are acts of war, have actually been carried out by followers of the dissident Iranian Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK), the separatist Baluch Jundallah, and the Kurdish PJAK, all acting under direction from American and Israeli intelligence officers. The MEK’s role in doing the CIA’s and Mossad’s dirty work is one reason so many neoconservatives and national security experts have been calling for the group to be removed from the U.S. terrorist group list. "


Here is a cleaver trick " David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, told National Public Radio that the U.S. government has been buying nuclear-enrichment equipment on the open market, sabotaging it, and delivering it to front companies who then sell it to the Iranian government. "

And on a positive note our secret war in Syria has worked, and Syria probably won't be Iran's ally anymore.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Part of the problem is that the article , like the conceptions most people tend to have of a potential gulf war, is that it will either be a cakewalk or armagendon. Like most things in life, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.

This is my thought as well. Lost in the discussion of the difficulty / impossibility of running a modern country with a 100.0% reduction in one's main / exclusive (?) cash export.

Bombing refineries or crude oil storage facilities used for exporting crude oil could accomplished relatively easily. There's enough domestic grumbling now about Tehran's air quality issues from poor gasoline refinery practices, what would it look like when their domestic stocks (not to mention cash export) dropped to exactly nothing? Would there be massive civil strife and make settlement a 'must'? Nobody has done this before to Iran. They must take the threat of their civil market economy utterly collapsing as an existential threat and deal with it.

Here, I believe there to be division between the Ayatollah and President Ahm-mad-in-da-head. While the latter is willing to lie, cheat, steal and obfuscate his way towards nuclear-armed status, I'm not convinced that the religious hard liners share the identical fervor. I don't know if they want to go 'all in' to use organically-produced nuclear weapons against Israel as a means of sealing their national fate.

Asymmetric warfare works both ways. If the Iranians close the straits of Hormuz (or try), they've guaranteed that their economy plummets within a few months. Sure, they drag a few down with 'em (notably the Kuwaitis), but they're sealing their fate. We wouldn't have to invade anything.

Yes, the Iranians would further foster discord and maybe direct action across their borders, but they've already played that card. If they increase their activities, we (or our regional proxy) increase ours. Quid pro quo. They don't have a mortal lock on getting blood on their hands 'outside of war'.

[Canoerebel]

I recall a long series of news stories about five or eight years ago suggesting that the Iranian public was on the verge of uprising to overthrow the government. I assume that this sentiment was quashed by the government's rather violent response over the years ensuing. So, what's the current internal state of Iran? Are there a large number of dissatisfied and relatively "progressive" younger people anxious for more freedom, or have they been quashed or subdued to the point that the regime really isn't threatened from within?

[Lecivius]

As I recall, CNN & others had pictures of Irans "progressive's" being drug out & shot on the street. The same thing that happened during the Shah's overthrow. I would not plan on internal strife to much.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I recall a long series of news stories about five or eight years ago suggesting that the Iranian public was on the verge of uprising to overthrow the government. I assume that this sentiment was quashed by the government's rather violent response over the years ensuing. So, what's the current internal state of Iran? Are there a large number of dissatisfied and relatively "progressive" younger people anxious for more freedom, or have they been quashed or subdued to the point that the regime really isn't threatened from within?

Their 'green revolution' was violently quashed / subdued and the freely elected moderates placed under house arrest or worse. I don't think that's quashed the hope or desire amongst the comparatively progressive youth, but it has pushed back the inevitability of change.

Like Syria, the administration uses their militia thugs (packaged as "students") to suppress dissent too. Occasionally, they'll overrun a foreign embassy (an act of war) with these same 'students' when it suits their needs.