The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

5/17/42
 
John and I have exchanged several more emails.  He's not coming for all of China.  Drat!  In the first place, he wouldn't take it.  In the second, the pushing and fighting is fun.  China is the only place I've had to sweat at all in this game thus far, so knowing he's backing off is like announcing that the most fun part of the game is coming to a close.  (crsutton and I seem to agree that '42 is the most fun for the Allies - when Japan is pushing hard and everything teeters on the edge of disaster for the Allies.  '43 and beyond can be very fun, but it lacks a certain tension that only '42 brings when facing an experienced and aggressive opponent).
 
China:  The stout Chinese corps in the woods holds against another 1:1 shock attack.  John needs one more brigade or division to open the supply road for his troops.  More importantly to me, I think there's a 75% chance the bulk of my cut off army - currently at Hengyang - can escabe the pocket.
 
Burma:  John addressed in his emails his perception that I'm trying to set up an "ambush" for him in Burma.  I get the feeling he thinks I'm about to launch a large scale offensive.  I don't think he's realized yet how important the line of jungle hexes is to his overall health in Burma.  The offensive won't come for quite some time yet, but it's decided as soon as Japan loses these jungle hexes - which might have already occurred.  IE, John may not realize he was in a race until it was already over.
 
Australia:  No news.  I'm weighing whether to send my four American carriers into CenPac with the idea of supporting operations in the Gilberts if the KB shows up elsewhere.  I definitely want to use my carriers in NoPac around December or so.  I may leave Hornet in the India theater.
 
SoPac:  24th RCT (Separate) landed at Wellington and is prepping for Vanua Lava. 

[JocMeister]

Is it really wise to split your CVs and leave Hornet in the IO?

[Canoerebel]

Sure.  The Allies have to be careful when using carriers, whether they have two or eight, when the KB is lurking about in '42.  So I don't use mine unless I know what I'm up against and that the odds are acceptable.  This gives me a better chance of moving on an enemy combat TF or small carrier TF if John raids past Ceylon, which is certainly possible.

I probably shouldn't say this for fear of immediately drawing bad luck:  I have not lost a carrier in my last four PBEM games vs. John III, PzH, Chez, and Q-Ball.  The last time I lost a carrier was vs. Miller three or four years ago.  Now, that's not saying much.  In fact, it may be evidence I'm far too timid.  But it is also evidence that I'm pretty careful in using my carriers.

[Canoerebel]

5/18/42
 
China:  Looks like the isolated Chinese army will make good its escape.  The Chinese may also continue to fight along the Kweilin and Liuchow sectors, at least until Japan brings more troops.  IE, the MLR is reconfigured, but it remains an MLR.
 
Burma:  Japan is paying much more attention to Imphal, a level five airfield.  Sweeps have been coming off in Japan's favor, but not decisively so.  I've moved in most of the AVG from Chungking to see if they can better the results.  The lead UK brigade has arrived at its jungle hex and will begin building forts.  Number two is two days out of its hex.  Japan took Myitkyina.
 
Australia:  I don't believe John intends to come for Perth or Brisbane sectors. 
 
Pacific:  A Marine regiment and an Army RCT are on transports inbound to Pearl Harbor.  Both are prepping for Gilberts targets.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sure.  The Allies have to be careful when using carriers, whether they have two or eight, when the KB is lurking about in '42.  So I don't use mine unless I know what I'm up against and that the odds are acceptable.  This gives me a better chance of moving on an enemy combat TF or small carrier TF if John raids past Ceylon, which is certainly possible.

I probably shouldn't say this for fear of immediately drawing bad luck:  I have not lost a carrier in my last four PBEM games vs. John III, PzH, Chez, and Q-Ball.  The last time I lost a carrier was vs. Miller three or four years ago.  Now, that's not saying much.  In fact, it may be evidence I'm far too timid.  But it is also evidence that I'm pretty careful in using my carriers.

I wouldn't go anywhere near the KB until you have Hellcats on all your CVs. The Wildcat is next to useless compared to the Zero (IN THE GAME, NOT IN REAL LIFE). No one wants yet another F4F vs Zero arguement[;)]

[Canoerebel]

5/19/42
 
China:  The Japanese finally clear the road hex, so a supply route is now open to the Changsha sector.  The main group of the cutoff Chinese army is moving along a good road - one more hex - three or four days of travel - and it will have an open route to freedom.
 
Burma:  John continues to ramp up activity in Burma - more recon, more sweeps.  The second UK brigade will arrive at its hex tomorrow.
 
Oz:  Quiet.
 
SoPac:  Interesting back to back SigInt had 6th Guards Mixed Brigade at Rabaul on the 18th and, on the 19th, aboard a maru bound for Efate.  I'm moving my carriers into the Tasman Sea.  In the unlikely event John doesn't cover an invasion with carrier support, I'll use them.  I have the northern Tasman Sea covered by patrolling combat ships, forming what I think is a strong picket line.  I have nothing to speak of at Efate, but I would try to use the airfields at Luganville (size one) and Noumea (size two) if I get a chance to.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sure.  The Allies have to be careful when using carriers, whether they have two or eight, when the KB is lurking about in '42.  So I don't use mine unless I know what I'm up against and that the odds are acceptable.  This gives me a better chance of moving on an enemy combat TF or small carrier TF if John raids past Ceylon, which is certainly possible.

I probably shouldn't say this for fear of immediately drawing bad luck:  I have not lost a carrier in my last four PBEM games vs. John III, PzH, Chez, and Q-Ball.  The last time I lost a carrier was vs. Miller three or four years ago.  Now, that's not saying much.  In fact, it may be evidence I'm far too timid.  But it is also evidence that I'm pretty careful in using my carriers.

I wouldn't go anywhere near the KB until you have Hellcats on all your CVs. The Wildcat is next to useless compared to the Zero (IN THE GAME, NOT IN REAL LIFE). No one wants yet another F4F vs Zero arguement[;)]

I might disagree here ... actual combat report from my last game [A lot more strike packages .. this is simply an abstract]:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Canton Island at 151,139

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 34


Allied aircraft
F4F-3A Wildcat x 13
F4F-3 Wildcat x 26
SBD-2 Dauntless x 33
SBD-3 Dauntless x 35
TBD-1 Devastator x 14


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Akagi, Bomb hits 5, on fire
DD Inazuma

Vs.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Canton Island at 151,141

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 18
B5N2 Kate x 65
D3A1 Val x 59



Allied aircraft
F4F-3A Wildcat x 14
F4F-3 Wildcat x 27


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 4 destroyed, 6 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 7 destroyed, 11 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3A Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Indianapolis
DD Case, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CV Enterprise, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Aylwin, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Worden
DD Porter, Bomb hits 1
CA Houston
CL St. Louis
DD MacDonough
DD Shaw, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Dale
CL Phoenix
DD Farragut

So ... there are three factors here .. 1. A sub smacked the Agaki and Kaga during the early morning hours. The Kaga forms an escort TF, the Akagi seems not to have crossed the damage threshold .. Zeros from the Akagi are found defending invasion transports [&:].. 2. Advanced weather =on, not good for the IJN; 3. LBA in the form of F4F's from Baker Island escort a small DB contengent consuming up Zero passes as I set them as escort ensuring the meximum number over the target not trying to LRCAP

The die rolls were not in favor of the IJN this day .. Only 18 Zero's escorted the main strike package in? 72 zeros defended the transports in the same hex [my strike package is slaughtered], and 34 zero's defend the KB?????

So never say never [;)] Situations can arise in which USN CV's can get the upper hand I exchange the Big E in the yard from 20 days for what ended up as 4 IJN CV's .. [The Kaga sinks on the way home ..] [8D]

If you simply say you are beaten if you try . then you do not encourage the IJN to make mistakes .. in this case starting the game with advanced weather = on ..

[ny59giants]

It may be too late for what is going on in the South Pacific now, but I like to form two ship Support TF of fast AVDs with enough aviation support for a 12 plane PBY group. Find a base that has a size 1 port that you can disband them in and use that base to spy on his ships with the now relocated PBY group. They should be fast enough to get out of trouble, when needed.

[Canoerebel]

I have good patrol coverage in these sectors of the Coral and Tasman seas with PBYs stationed at Luganville, Noumea, Koumac, Brisbane and Rockhampton.

But you're right about the utility of such a frisky little "mobile listening post" TF.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

It may be too late for what is going on in the South Pacific now, but I like to form two ship Support TF of fast AVDs with enough aviation support for a 12 plane PBY group. Find a base that has a size 1 port that you can disband them in and use that base to spy on his ships with the now relocated PBY group. They should be fast enough to get out of trouble, when needed.

You can disband in dot bases (0 port). Maybe that's new in AE versus WITP?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sure.  The Allies have to be careful when using carriers, whether they have two or eight, when the KB is lurking about in '42.  So I don't use mine unless I know what I'm up against and that the odds are acceptable.  This gives me a better chance of moving on an enemy combat TF or small carrier TF if John raids past Ceylon, which is certainly possible.

I probably shouldn't say this for fear of immediately drawing bad luck:  I have not lost a carrier in my last four PBEM games vs. John III, PzH, Chez, and Q-Ball.  The last time I lost a carrier was vs. Miller three or four years ago.  Now, that's not saying much.  In fact, it may be evidence I'm far too timid.  But it is also evidence that I'm pretty careful in using my carriers.

It helps to know that John likes to split his as well.

You're always very measured with CVs, but you're ready, and that is the mark of good play. So if the odds are decent ...

I've been toying with the Guadalcanal Scen. lately for fun, and the Allies can surely come out on top at 3 to 2 or even 2 to 2. Especially if you've maxed out the CVs with Marine units. If it were me I'd prefer 4 to 2, but John does open himself for these kinds of chances at times.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

You can disband in dot bases (0 port). Maybe that's new in AE versus WITP?

Personally, I don't like this. My last opponent disbanded heavily damaged CVE's at a base with port (0) and the ships did not appear to recon since no anchor symbol will display. I only knew the ships were there from naval bombardment hits in the combat report. If the ships could be spotted from recon I'd have no problem with it, otherwise I think it's an exploit as I don't believe air units can attack a base with a port of (0).

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: witpqs

You can disband in dot bases (0 port). Maybe that's new in AE versus WITP?

Personally, I don't like this. My last opponent disbanded heavily damaged CVE's at a base with port (0) and the ships did not appear to recon since no anchor symbol will display. I only knew the ships were there from naval bombardment hits in the combat report. If the ships could be spotted from recon I'd have no problem with it, otherwise I think it's an exploit as I don't believe air units can attack a base with a port of (0).

That's news to me - I haven't heard any other reports of ships in a 0 port not showing up on recon or search. They certainly ought to show up as much/little as ships at >0 ports. Sounds like it's late for this, but maybe if the next time you run across it Michael could be made aware he might be able to determine if there is anything that needs fixing.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies race to seize the key line of jungle hexes bordering the clear terrain in Upper Burma.

1. The two UK brigades are in place and building forts.
2. 6th Oz Division still has another hex to travel (SW from it's current position) to occupy the center of this line.
3. The two hexes occupied by the paired Indian brigades and BFF brigade are weak points at present.
4. 7th Oz Division (currently at Jamdespur) and 7th Indian Division (just bought and currently at Bombay) are enroute to Imphal. From there they'll plug into the line.
5. 41st USA Div. is 28 days out of Capetown. She'll be bought upon arrival and moved into the line - ETA approximately 75 days.
6. I should be able to buy out at least one more Indian division near term.

From his email comments, I know John is aware that the Allies pose a risk in Burma. I think, though, that he's focusing on an Allied offensive. I don't think he realizes, yet, the importance of the line of jungle hexes. If I'm right, the Allies may have lots of time to reinforce these hexes. Then, as the summer draws on, or when the monsoon ends in October, the Allies can move into the open terrain in a massive campaign.

[Cap Mandrake]

Beautiful color palette on your map. <begins to weep>


It looks like one of Monet's Rouen Cathedral series.

I am also jealous of having a mountain to go walk on at lunchtime. We have a Lavender Mountain out here too but it is a gay bar in Laguna.

I have started reading both sides of the AAR's so I am restricting myself to aesthetic ovbservations. Sorry, you will have to get your deep strategic advice elsewhere. [:)] Keep up the good work.

[Canoerebel]

Is there really a gay bar in Laguna called Lavender Mountain?  

Berry College in Rome is the largest college/university (acreage) in the world, with 26,000 acres.  The campus includes most of Lavender Mountain, a long ridge that's roughly 1,300 feet in elevation (or about 700 feet above the surrounding area).  I mountain bike, hike, and run (very, very slowly) on the mountain quite often - Last week I did three short runs, one medium bike ride, and one hike to eat lunch on a rock and read a chapter of Costello's "The Pacific War."  I jokingly refer to the mountain as my "adjunct office."

[Crackaces]

The Allies race to seize the key line of jungle hexes bordering the clear terrain in Upper Burma.

1. The two UK brigades are in place and building forts.
2. 6th Oz Division still has another hex to travel (SW from it's current position) to occupy the center of this line.
3. The two hexes occupied by the paired Indian brigades and BFF brigade are weak points at present.
4. 7th Oz Division (currently at Jamdespur) and 7th Indian Division (just bought and currently at Bombay) are enroute to Imphal. From there they'll plug into the line.
5. 41st USA Div. is 28 days out of Capetown. She'll be bought upon arrival and moved into the line - ETA approximately 75 days.
6. I should be able to buy out at least one more Indian division near term.

From his email comments, I know John is aware that the Allies pose a risk in Burma. I think, though, that he's focusing on an Allied offensive. I don't think he realizes, yet, the importance of the line of jungle hexes. If I'm right, the Allies may have lots of time to reinforce these hexes. Then, as the summer draws on, or when the monsoon ends in October, the Allies can move into the open terrain in a massive campaign.

In my opinion, you have won the race to establishing dominance in Burma. The IJ can bring the kitchen sink to try to fix this problem but it has been my limited [N=2] experience that once you get to this point of securing the front line jungle hexes .. the story has been written and it is all a matter of playing it out ...

The very interesting varaible that I am watching closely is the rule against 4E's striking open hexes and using 2E's only on the open hexes. My experience has been that the number of squads disabled/destroyed is not as dramatic, but unseen to the naked eye is unit disruption levels. I found after 2 - 3 raids using B25's at 6,000 feet open terrain that the IJ units AV on both attack/defense would decrease dramatically despite the much lower obvious losses than when using 4E's. I chalked it up to high disruption levels, but of course many other factors could be at play. I just know both of my opponents were dismayed that the Irrawaddy Valley could not be defended agasint Allied Armor and airpower [8D] I suspect your game will unfold likewise [;)]

A second side effect of the IJA pouring more and more resources into Burma to try and defend open terrain is the weakening of all other fronts. I imagine this one-two punch as the Marshalls come under seige once John is fully comitted to "saving" Burma

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Crackaces.
&nbsp;
I too found that disruption from 2EB was dramatic.&nbsp; I was on the receiving end in China.&nbsp; I hope to be on the giving end in Burma (and later in China).
&nbsp;
American and British armor are heading to the Burma front.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
I think one reason John has "decided to stick to historical ground" in China is that (a) he recognizes that going further forward would be slow and tough, and (b) he needs his air and ground units elsewhere, beginning with Burma.
&nbsp;
The Allies will apply maximum effort in Burma.&nbsp; The Allies will create the appearance of major threats up the Australian east and west coasts.&nbsp; But the Allies don't at this time intend to move into the DEI.&nbsp; The long range plan is to move across CenPac.

[Houtje]

Well done in Burma, CR. Another question about that (sorry for pestering you with them, but I learn a lot from you AARs): will supply not be a problem for you? E.g., when the 6th Aussie Div. is in its intended hex, it will be 2 full jungle hexes from a hex with a yellow road; will supply still flow to it, then?

[Bullwinkle58]

I'm reading the other side right now too.

Only comment: e-mail and alternate-thread disclosures from him about China and Burma are not trivial. He is giving away massive amounts of information to you. On purpose? He can't help himself? He doesn't think it matters? I don't know. But it's about the biggest free serving of opsec I've ever seen in an AAR.