The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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Paladin1dcs
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Paladin1dcs »

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I bet he'll be expecting you to be bringing the kitchen sink, instead of a shoe-string operation. I also bet he'll be salivating at the "chance" of hitting your carriers too......too bad it'll be a rush into thin air (lol).

Again, sometimes I believe John is over-amazed at his own superiority.....

agreed ...[;)] and the full speed dash will burn precious fuel ... fuel needed if this game ever gets to 1944 ... I think CR has something up his sleeve and wants the KB to dash around a bit in the Marshalls ...

Would the idea of setting up a SS trap to thin out his AOs be a workable option? I mean, if the KB is going to be burning fuel in the Marshalls, then it just makes sense that John would send out a replenishment TF to keep them on station. With enough SS in the area, you could probably hit that TF before it gets to the KB.
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Crackaces
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: Paladin1dcs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My opponent knows I place a high value on Cocos Island.  My opponent is concerned that I'm going to invade the island.  I'm not, but I want him to remain concerned.  So I send forth a ship that he will sight.  He will wonder and worry and probably base some Netties there.  I want Netties there rather than where I'm actually invading. 

We've done this once before - he sighted DD Vendetta ten days ago and moved Netties to Cocos.

I'm using CL Perth this time because she was the only available ship.  She had been escorting a CM/APD fast transport TF carrying a port service unit to Cocos back when I thought about invading the island; that TF has been holding south of Cocos until I felt the need to dispatch a probing combat ship.

Ah, so it's more of a PsyOps mission than anything else. That makes quite a bit of sense, thanks for the explaination.

Hmmm beyond Psyops ... 'Maskirovk'a is a better word .. right now John is lookng at Coco's ...fearing something in Burma .. soon reacting to Tarawa ... then completely befuddled by Ramree Island .. then CR is going to get serious in this game [;)]
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Crackaces
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: Paladin1dcs

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I bet he'll be expecting you to be bringing the kitchen sink, instead of a shoe-string operation. I also bet he'll be salivating at the "chance" of hitting your carriers too......too bad it'll be a rush into thin air (lol).

Again, sometimes I believe John is over-amazed at his own superiority.....

agreed ...[;)] and the full speed dash will burn precious fuel ... fuel needed if this game ever gets to 1944 ... I think CR has something up his sleeve and wants the KB to dash around a bit in the Marshalls ...

Would the idea of setting up a SS trap to thin out his AOs be a workable option? I mean, if the KB is going to be burning fuel in the Marshalls, then it just makes sense that John would send out a replenishment TF to keep them on station. With enough SS in the area, you could probably hit that TF before it gets to the KB.

IMHO) One should never depend on Allied SS before 1944 and any contacts / hits are gravy. First the P(.20) once contacted and the P(x) of contact is something less than 1. A lot less from my perspective some P(x) of Commader attributes and some random die roll .. so now you are looking at P(.20) * something less than 1 .. nothing I would base any operation on [;)]

But the KB rolling over submarines is a free shot and that is always good [:D] ... I am sure the area has subs to increase detection .. [;)]
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Paladin1dcs »

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Paladin1dcs

ORIGINAL: Crackaces




agreed ...[;)] and the full speed dash will burn precious fuel ... fuel needed if this game ever gets to 1944 ... I think CR has something up his sleeve and wants the KB to dash around a bit in the Marshalls ...

Would the idea of setting up a SS trap to thin out his AOs be a workable option? I mean, if the KB is going to be burning fuel in the Marshalls, then it just makes sense that John would send out a replenishment TF to keep them on station. With enough SS in the area, you could probably hit that TF before it gets to the KB.

IMHO) One should never depend on Allied SS before 1944 and any contacts / hits are gravy. First the P(.20) once contacted and the P(x) of contact is something less than 1. A lot less from my perspective some P(x) of Commader attributes and some random die roll .. so now you are looking at P(.20) * something less than 1 .. nothing I would base any operation on [;)]

But the KB rolling over submarines is a free shot and that is always good [:D] ... I am sure the area has subs to increase detection .. [;)]

Sorry, lots of math just made my eyes glaze over. [&:]

I know USN SS suck, due to the TT problems until 1944 and the RN and Dutch SS are a limited quantity, but what's this about limited chance of detection and limited chance of attacking? I haven't seen these calculations before, so please explain what you're talking about here.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by pws1225 »

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Hmmm beyond Psyops ... 'Maskirovk'a is a better word .. right now John is lookng at Coco's ...fearing something in Burma .. soon reacting to Tarawa ... then completely befuddled by Ramree Island .. then CR is going to get serious in this game [;)]

Now, now guys. I think you are underestimating John. Since he hasn't posted in a while I can't verify this, but I suspect he is lulling CR into a cleverly designed trap that will swallow the might of the western powers. After all, remember the ancient Japanese saying "Never underestimate the cleverness of a guy with a caboose in his front yard". At least, the JFB in me hopes there is such a saying.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by princep01 »

CR, did you ever fly any recon missions from your cruisers/BBs into Tarawa to test the waters?  Even running in a bombardment mission in a week or two before invading would give you a pretty good idea of what was there.  Yes, there is a cost in potential loss of operational surprise, but cruiser raids happen a lot in these games and can be conducted in a fashion as to not reveal the true target (raiding 4 or more other places over a period of a few weeks, for instance).  These hit and run tactics are low risk and do provide a general working knowledge of what is there.
 
I've been away for awhile and have not caught up, so it is entirely possible you did this rather than go in blind at Tarawa.  Hope so although it does appear Tarawa will be a cakewalk given his enability to even spot the incoming TFs.  Good luck.  I hope the place is empty.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

No, the last thing I wanted to do was alert the enemy. I have a pretty good base for my evaluation of what's there, plus drawing unwanted attention (the KB, for instance, is not far away) would've forced me to retire. Better to roll the dice and go in pretty blind. I even stood down my floatplanes the last four or five days. But they'll fly tonight - perhaps giving some help with the bombardment mission.

Regarding PWS's comments, I know where you're coming from and agree that we might be piling on John a bit. John is an experienced, excitable and hugely aggressive player. This makes for a wild ride, for which I am most thankful.

On the flip side, John's boldness combines with a lack of preparation and patience, to wit:

1. Repeatedly using shock attacks with bad odds to really mess up his infantry units.
2. Invading with poorly comprised amphibious forces - he often comes with infantry supported by nothing else. That works sometimes (Cocos Island), but it's a recipe for trouble (Luganville).
3. Flinging the KB here and there sometimes nets him some prizes (Australia in March), often is a waste of time (New Zealand in February), and always lets me know where the KB is so that I can act accordingly elsewhere.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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JeffroK
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by JeffroK »

I agree that sending a Bombardment TF is just letting him know you are coming, not too dissimilar to the raid on MAKIN!!!!! which saw the japanese build up their defences for the later attack.

What I do like is getting John used to these small pickets testing out the defences, it may lull him into seing them as "normal" traffic so that when the real one arrives he misses it (Which could explain the quietness around makin/Taraw at the moment.

In reverse, if you always follow step1, 2 then 3 on each invasion you are sending an invitation for a counterattack.
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princep01
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by princep01 »

Well, guys, I guess we all have our perspectives on the use of bombardment TFs and their air to recon potential invasion locales.  However, I take the position that you really aren't giving away any operational surprise IF you spread it out.  Say over the course of three weeks the Allies sent CR TFs (2 CR, 2 DD each) to bombard/recon Wotje, Tarawa, Wake, Marcus, Cocos, Sabang and Pt Moresby.  What is an IJ player going to surmise that he doesn't already know?  You COULD be planning an amphibious landing at any one or more of those points (long range air reconning other possible invasion points).  In my way of thinking, you get the general intel on what's there at low risk and the IJ can read these pinprick in many different ways.  It sows more confusion in his ranks rather than revealing anything about Allied intentions.
 
As it is, I am amazed that the the IJ did not have any naval search activities in the southern or eastern Gilberts.  As noted above, to me that is a strong indicator that there is little or nothing at the chosen invasion points.
 
I smiled when reading CR's desription of Jon's style fo play.  reading that, I envisioned Jon as a Kizin warrior!!  You know, those ferocious, 7' tall, space faring cats from Ringworld and other J. Pournelle (sp?) books.  Scream and leap tactics.
 
Oh, and CR, always bombard Socrata as you pass.  Don't leave anything for the LYBs:). 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

6/2/42
 
D-Day Gilberts:  The Allied amphibious operations goes off without a hitch.  Undefended Makin and Abemama fall.  Tarawa, occupied only by a JNAF base force, succumbs eaily.  94 AV are ashore at Makin, 141 at Tarawa, and 41 at Abemama.
 
D Plus One:  The KB is still at Tulagi, but if John uses flank speed it could arrive within air strike range of my beacheads tomorrow.  I'm hoping John will be cautious, but on the assumption that Mr. Aggression will be fully aroused, I am taking some precautions and preparing to make sacrifices.  First, the three AP involved in the invasion plus all combat ships will retire to the east immediately.  Five DMs will mine Tarawa and one will mine Makin, then all minelayers will retire to the east.  All xAK and xAP will remain on the beaches one more day to unload troops and supply.  These ships will take heavy losses, if not on D Plus One then certainly in days to come.  But supply is critical now.  Tarawa has just 2k and it's the best of the three.  Nearly all my troops have high prep for their bases, so it's going to be hard for John to dislodge them.  He can do it with enough attention by battlewagons and carriers.  I think he's got to try.  I think I have to take advantage of any such concentration.
 
NoPac:  Mutsu and Nagato bombard Akutan - I hadn't seen them in awhile and thought them might be in the Marshalls until I saw them coming yesterday.  A supply convoy leaves Kodiak for Cold Bay.  In one or two days, the Allied fighter squadrons will move to that base in hopes of ambushing some Kates (which had Zero escorts for the first time today).
 
Oz:  Two IJN subs south of Sydney put five torpedoes into BB Mississippi and she goes under.  This casts a pall over an otherwise marvelous day.  Anticipating that the KB will move to the Gilberts, the Allies are going to invade Exmouth.  I have about 180 AV highly prepped and awaiting transports at Esperance.  The four American carriers will provide support, with some SBD squadrons removed and replaced by Marine fighters.  Exmouth is lightly held, so this should work.  D-Day probably 14 days off as my ships are at and near Melbourne.  Meanwhile, a large army will move overland to besiege Carnavon.  I think this base is heavily garrisoned, but I'll have more than 500 AV, LBA, and carrier air if needed.
 
Cocos Island:  IJN patrols picked up CL Perth at a distance of 12 hexes.  Detection is 10/10.  I think John thinks Cocos is a target.  :)
 
Bay of Bengal:  The fast transport TF is 13 hexes from Ramree Island.  We're at D Minus 2.  Tomorrow, long range Mitchell recon in India and Assam will fly Ramree, Moulmein and Tavoy.  The carriers, combat ships and second wave ships will be five or six hexes out of Calcutta, close enough to follow or support, as needed, the fast transport convoy.  I have roughly 12 fighters squadrons at Calcutta, Dacca and Imphal resting and ready for rotation into Akyab to provide LRCAP for everybody.
 
China:  The Chinese repositioning continues in good order.  A Japanese unit or two is cutting inland from Chengte across jungle hexes towards very distant Chungking.  I'll meet these unts at some point, but given the bad terrain and lack of roads I don't think this is a credible threat in the short or medium term.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Princep, I agree with you, though I think you're one step too far down the road.

As a game draws on and as an alert IJ player covers all vectors, the Allies could be best served by your approach.  Mutiple feelers so that the Japanese player isn't sure which is real and which are decoys.

But we're still early here.  The IJ player hadn't covered all vectors.  I was as sure as I could be given all the available information at hand.  So, any probing ahead of time would only draw the Japanese player's attention to a hole in his outer crust of defenses, prompting him to attend to that hole.  So probing under these circumstances would have been the worst thing I could have done.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

I made a last minute adjustment.  I "culled" some of the invasion ships and ordered them to retire - roughly one-third of them.  Some were carrying only heavy equipment and some were good ships with high cargo ratings and high speed.  I tried to leave at the beaches mainly low value xAK, a few xAP that can unload more infantry, and that's about it.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Houtje »

Congrats on your successful operation; commiserations on the Miss.; was she already damaged? A question about surprise: I agree on not reconning-by-raiding, but does preparing your LCU's not also carry the risk of detection? I thought that your opponent can sometimes get SigInt on such preparations?
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Providing this screen shot for two reasons:

1. Nice to see the American flag icon in enemy territory for the first time in the game.

2. Today the Allied shipping is nice, tight and orderly. Tomorrow will be vastly different as the chickens scatter....and possibly the arrival of the foxes.

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"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: Houtje
Congrats on your successful operation; commiserations on the Miss.; was she already damaged? A question about surprise: I agree on not reconning-by-raiding, but does preparing your LCU's not also carry the risk of detection? I thought that your opponent can sometimes get SigInt on such preparations?

The Japanese almost never get "prepping for" SigInt. In fact, I've only heard of it happening one time - in my very first game of WitP, around six years ago, John (same opponent) said he got SigInt that I had 41st Div. aboard transports inbound to Pago Pago. He did nasty things to that TF.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I made a last minute adjustment.  I "culled" some of the invasion ships and ordered them to retire - roughly one-third of them.  Some were carrying only heavy equipment and some were good ships with high cargo ratings and high speed.  I tried to leave at the beaches mainly low value xAK, a few xAP that can unload more infantry, and that's about it.

Might be interesting to keep those ships near and still loaded, like at Canton Island. He's going to have to spend a lot of fuel to keep the KB hovering in the Gilberts for months.

Do you have any paras yet? Might be interesting to add to the situation by going lower and getting one (or more) bases around Tabiteuaea. Or maybe they're not in japanese hands yet and you could just fly engineers in? Lots of good ones there. These would be farther out of his air range from the Marshalls and you could use them to support supply runs in when he backed off for a bit.

While I know this is not the main strategic focus area, the more you add the greater his consternation and frantic efforts will counteract his own strategic goals (if there are any).

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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Crackaces
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

I know USN SS suck, due to the TT problems until 1944 and the RN and Dutch SS are a limited quantity, but what's this about limited chance of detection and limited chance of attacking? I haven't seen these calculations before, so please explain what you're talking about here.

Very straightforwadly -- With Reliable Torpedoes off The USN have a 1/5 chance of a torpedo working. That is the same odds as beating an overpair before the flop. Not so good . but .. unlike Poker .. it is a free shot [8D]

But things get even a little more complex because it is not a straight calculation of submarine and ship occupying the same hex. Instead there is a random die roll and there are calculations involving the naval rating of the submarine leadser. These are *AND* equations. So no only does the USN have to pass the unlikley realiable torps die roll. but at least one other die roll maybe two or more, and that makes an unlikely event much more unlikely ... In coin flip terms I flip heads and you flip heads has a probability of 1/4 or 1 success out of 4 trials even though each probability seperately is 1/2 My point is that once things reduce to an *AND* equation involving low odds .. it is probably not going to happen and should not be coounted on .. [8D]

Now the Dutch submarines have the problem with some commanders, so yes the torps work but it might be more likley they just get rolled over [no torp shot] or they miss ... again making it a low probability of something good for the good guys to happen ..

What you see some Allied commanders do is use the subs to lay mines. In particular the dutch subs O-19 and O-20 and in particular in narrow straits where the IJN are sure to pass .. that discussion might be relavent to this game very soon [;)]
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Crackaces
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

and possibly the arrival of the foxes

No I doubt foxes .. more like 7 - 9 800 pound gorilla's [:D]
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

I agree with Crackaces, though my understanding is intuitive while his is informed.  Subs are just unlikely to score.  I do use them - I have perhaps six or seven in or on the way to this region.
 
In my game vs. PzH, he preferred to use subs non historically - as massed wolfpacks to form trip lines or to flood a hex.  GreyJoy plays the same way.  I'm sure Nemo did also.  That use has tremendous advantages, but it's also extremely labor intensive.  So I don't do it, preferring to establish patrol zones at choke points and other likely spots, thus dispersing my subs all over the map and letting the computer do most of my work.  John plays the same way, which I like in an opponent.
 
A post just up above asked about BB Mississippi.  She was undamaged and moving from Melbourne to Sydney in case I took a shot in the Coral Sea when John moves KB to the Gilberts.  Too bad, because had I waited one more turn, Mississippi wouldn't have gone that way since I've decided to go up Oz's West Coast short term rather than into the Coral Sea.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

On my map up above, notice the blue anchor icon at Arorae.  This is an AVP loaded with 160 supply.  There's no supply at the base itself.  Will this allow me to use PBYs here, or do I risk disablement without supply at the base?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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