Offensive chits and Phoney War

[Zorachus99]

With the optional rule that decreases the garrison ratio in Jul/Aug, it will be nearly impossible to stuff the border for all of '41.

Side-effect of stuffing the border is two-fold with the optional.

1) If the Russians stuff garrison value until July, then they will be on the border (historically accurate)
2) If the Russians stuff, the war starts late for Germany during Jul/August (historically accurate), and will still likely require 80%+ of their units, but allows the German player to DOW in 1941, rather than 1942.

The flip side is that the optional affects the Russians too, so 'Sealion' or 'Close the Med' could be significantly ruined without an 'Eastern Army' to garrison with.

[brian brian]

going back to Offensive Chits & Phoney War...

It is entirely possible for the Germans to play conservatively in the foregone conclusion in the West, saving up every possible advantage for the titanic struggle in the East when they are aiming for a 1941 Barbarossa strategy. They can execute a No Bessarabia option without even activating Hungary (no loss of Russian resource, no extra 30% USE roll) and fighting a careful, low commitment, slow motion war in Yugoslavia (Italian HQ in 1940 run the show perhaps, Rumanians conquer or at least block the Yugo resources). They can conquer France without using either Offensive Chit. They can even conquer France without attacking the Low Countries in 1939, and even without ever attacking the Netherlands, but you will need all of the tactical tricks in the game system to do it, and perhaps even a Kriegsmarine played as fearlessly as the historical Royal Navy. Though I have been playing a long time with newer Vichy Rules than the ones used in MWiF, I look forward to once again exploring this option with the take Paris requirement. Though in general I feel the high factor German units can grind up the low factor French units well enough if you take proper advantage of the combat systems (tanks....open country), such that taking Paris at the end isn't so Gotterdamerung as say it was in Third Reich, or in 1d10 WiF that I don't generally play.

Advantages are several - Offensive Chits in Russia are very good to have. US Entry is coming along as slowly as possible. This keeps the Allies from selecting the Lend-Lease to the USSR options for as long as possible, among many other benefits. Not giving the CW the Dutch convoy points until Japan needs to enter the war also keeps them a lot more stretched, particularly when it is time to set up a new convoy line to the Arctic to help their new, desperate Allies in the East.

A German DOW on Belgium on 1939 can possibly accelerate the demise of Germany at the end of the game, more than France at the beginning of the game. Give the USA a high value entry chit and then roll bad weather making the DOW moot and you will regret it later, though you might not connect the two events. Particularly in MWiF, where the chit distribution is infinite, rather than fixed, and US Entry levels will have a few more outlying type high/low results than a game on paper.

[Numdydar]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

They can execute a No Bessarabia option without even activating Hungary (no loss of Russian resource, no extra 30% USE roll)

Exactly how would this work?

Also not to get too side tracked, has anyone played without conquring France at all? Just fortify the border and force the Allies to come to Germany?

[brian brian]

There are "Sitzkrieg" strategies, sure. Not for me. They are employed vs the Russians. Letting France survive until the USA joins the war, when they cooperate with the Yanks, would be the doom of Germany and would free up the CW entirely to do whatever it wants, anywhere on the map (goodbye, Italy). Not good, even with Belgium, the Rhine, some West Wall, and the Ruhr for Adolf to hide behind.

No Bessarabia without paprika is simple. On the 3rd impulse of the game, which is the 2nd Axis impulse, the Germans DOW Yugoslavia and activate Rumania. von Leeb and a few 4 movement INF and a few lower-power bombers (all not needed in Poland) move into Yugoslavia and attack Croatia with the benefits of surprise, wherever they might set up as they can waste a unit to block an attack on Zagreb, but likely won't, expecting the Hungarians to be activating eventually too. The Rumanians carefully ooze into eastern Serbia, mostly to block Yugo resources from creating Build Points for whichever Ally aligns Yugoslavia. (The Rumanians will have supply issues and it doesn't hurt to have an extended range Luftwaffe bomber in reserve in case Prince Paul gets frisky). After that von Leeb HQ makes forward progress when possible and attacks whenever the weather might be good. The only objective is to keep Russia from demanding Bessarabia in the first place, it doesn't matter when Yugoslavia is conquered. When Italy joins the war, it is possible to have an Italian HQ replace the von Leeb HQ, which can be employed reorganizing units on the Western Front.

The No Bessarabia option does cost the Germans a 5 Build Point Rumanian HQ that they would otherwise receive for free in 1940 in other activate Rumania situations.

[bo]

All very good answers by very informed players, also Annual 98 has a few ideas on the first move by Germany in sept/oct 1939. Interesting reading.

Bo

[Numdydar]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

There are "Sitzkrieg" strategies, sure. Not for me. They are employed vs the Russians. Letting France survive until the USA joins the war, when they cooperate with the Yanks, would be the doom of Germany and would free up the CW entirely to do whatever it wants, anywhere on the map (goodbye, Italy). Not good, even with Belgium, the Rhine, some West Wall, and the Ruhr for Adolf to hide behind.

No Bessarabia without paprika is simple. On the 3rd impulse of the game, which is the 2nd Axis impulse, the Germans DOW Yugoslavia and activate Rumania. von Leeb and a few 4 movement INF and a few lower-power bombers (all not needed in Poland) move into Yugoslavia and attack Croatia with the benefits of surprise, wherever they might set up as they can waste a unit to block an attack on Zagreb, but likely won't, expecting the Hungarians to be activating eventually too. The Rumanians carefully ooze into eastern Serbia, mostly to block Yugo resources from creating Build Points for whichever Ally aligns Yugoslavia. (The Rumanians will have supply issues and it doesn't hurt to have an extended range Luftwaffe bomber in reserve in case Prince Paul gets frisky). After that von Leeb HQ makes forward progress when possible and attacks whenever the weather might be good. The only objective is to keep Russia from demanding Bessarabia in the first place, it doesn't matter when Yugoslavia is conquered. When Italy joins the war, it is possible to have an Italian HQ replace the von Leeb HQ, which can be employed reorganizing units on the Western Front.

The No Bessarabia option does cost the Germans a 5 Build Point Rumanian HQ that they would otherwise receive for free in 1940 in other activate Rumania situations.

The rules state that if Rumaina, Hungrary, and Bulgeria are aligned by Germany, then Russia can reduce the resources delivered by 1 each. But not the oil until all the resources have been denied. So you are still losing resources in the gambit just not the oil.

[brian brian]

yes, that is exactly correct. what I meant by 'not lose the resource' was to not lose the 2nd resource. you automatically align Rumania, that is the whole point of this particular opening, and Russia reduces the resources sent by one. but you can fight the Yugos without the Hungarians, which is more difficult somewhat, but not impossible for the German war machine. one of the questions in your original post is what to do with excess capacity in that powerful machine over the first several turns of otherwise Phoney War.

one point of doing it that way is to minimize US Entry rolls. another one isn't so much for the Germans to not lose another incoming resource from Russia, but to not let the Russians keep that 2nd resource for themselves. the German economy is much bigger and that resource won't matter as much to them. but that one resource over aligning Hungary or not, left with Uncle Joe, means 5 Build points of more stuff (sat an INF and a winterized specialty division) for the Russians by the time of Barbarossa.

[vicberg]

ORIGINAL: brian brian
No Bessarabia without paprika is simple. On the 3rd impulse of the game, which is the 2nd Axis impulse, the Germans DOW Yugoslavia and activate Rumania. von Leeb and a few 4 movement INF and a few lower-power bombers (all not needed in Poland) move into Yugoslavia and attack Croatia with the benefits of surprise, wherever they might set up as they can waste a unit to block an attack on Zagreb, but likely won't, expecting the Hungarians to be activating eventually too. The Rumanians carefully ooze into eastern Serbia, mostly to block Yugo resources from creating Build Points for whichever Ally aligns Yugoslavia. (The Rumanians will have supply issues and it doesn't hurt to have an extended range Luftwaffe bomber in reserve in case Prince Paul gets frisky). After that von Leeb HQ makes forward progress when possible and attacks whenever the weather might be good. The only objective is to keep Russia from demanding Bessarabia in the first place, it doesn't matter when Yugoslavia is conquered. When Italy joins the war, it is possible to have an Italian HQ replace the von Leeb HQ, which can be employed reorganizing units on the Western Front.

I'm confused here. You can't activate Rumania until Belgrade is controlled by the Axis. If not aligning Hungary, there's no way GE/IT is getting through the mountains to Belgrade within a few impulses. Then another impulse is needed to align Rumania during the DOW step. RU often sets up to demand Bessarabia within the 2nd impulse of the game anyway, which, yes, opens it for a RU first strategy, but counts on bad weather, reserves and increased production making a RU first a potential game over for the Axis.

Even if you align Hungary on the 3rd impulse of the game, Yugo sets up around Zagreb, not the wide open Belgrade, which allows for a Rumania alignment early, but also makes a Yugo attack early in the game a potential multiple turn affair, especially with bad weather. If CW chooses (and they are stretched to do this), they can attempt to push a corp (or two) into Yugo which makes it even more difficult. The entire time this is happening, it's harder to push into Netherlands, Belgium and France (if playing without the no ZOC with surprise option).

Plus there's the USE affects of doing all this in 1939 vs. 1940. And for what gain? You can align Rumania later in the game? I'm not following the gains of an early Yugo attack?

[Centuur]

From RAW:

• Rumania can only align with Germany if Germany has declared
war either on Yugoslavia or the USSR (not if the USSR has
declared war on Germany), or if Germany controls Belgrade;

So if Germany is at war with Yugoslavia, it can align Rumania immediately.

[brian brian]

The Germans can activate Rumania if they have merely Declared War on Yugoslavia, no need to control Belgrade.

The Germans have no need of hurry in conquering Yugoslavia.

If the West wants to foolishly land troops on the Adriatic Coast, more is the better for the Axis. If Italy enters the war, supply for those troops will be very difficult to maintain in general. To help the Yugoslavians, they will need to march inland, and their supply lines get worse. The Axis will have slightly more units in the theater, giving them better options for maneuver to block supply. Such troops would also have no air cover. Anything the Allies send in to Yugoslavia isn't ever coming back.

Anything that affects US Entry is not to to be taken lightly. This Gambit does cost the Axis two USE die rolls in 1939, when stakes are high, each at 30% chance of generating a chit. A lot of Axis players would add Hungary in immediately for another 30% roll.

The advantages are several. Launching Barbarossa from Bessarabia gains many things. The Odessa factory will never rail out to Siberia. A large, powerful, mobile German Army Group can invade the Ukraine from Bessarabia, which seemingly only gains them one hex row. However with Rumania active and linked to Germany by rail at some point later in 1940, a lot of German units don't need to waste 2 impulses marching through south-eastern Poland and western Ukraine. They can threaten Kiev basically immediately. There are also economic advantages. The Rumanian factory produces for the Axis side starting on the first turn. Within a few turns, the Yugoslavian resources can be transported back to the Reich by taking Macedonia and shipping them out of the country to the south, though it also helps for the Germans to keep their ATR as far forward as they can base it to eventually fly a re-supply mission to the Rumanians, who must operate in Serbia on their own, without supply. It also keeps the political initiative in the Balkans firmly in Axis hands, as they have no need to decide what to do with the 3 Axis Minors when the Russians demand Bessarabia.

This Gambit does cost the Italians their only source of oil however and the Axis need to plan for that by not using up excess hordes of Italian oil-dependent units on their first two turns of war, which significantly lowers Italian capabilities when they join the war. It also possibly shows the German strategic plan to the Allies, unless the Germans are willing to do this even with a different plan in mind, as a bluff.

[vicberg]

Just read that rule. Hungary may be aligned AFTER Yugo DOW but Rumania may be aligned immediately. I did not know that.

However, at least the people I play against start ready to align Bessarabia on 2nd impulse of the game, so this gambit really doesn't come into play.

It's a typical tough call that WIF brings up turn after turn. USE affects vs. economic trade off. I would personally start von Dweeb (leeb) against France, reorg the 8-4 MOT and 9-4 INF on axis 2nd impulse and then have the option in SO39 to push into Netherlands or Belgium on the hopes of fair weather or rain. I've seen the Rotterdam/Antwerp CW defense one too many times. It's ugly.

[brian brian]

No, the Russians can not demand Bessarabia on the first Allied impulse, only on the second Allied impulse. If the Germans DOW Yugoslavia on their second impulse and activate Rumania, the Russians can never demand Bessarabia. It is all solely a German choice to make.

[vicberg]

That's a different story then. Another rule I didn't read close enough. Demanding Bessarabia has to come on Allied 2nd impulse.

That's a good case for a 39 Yugo attack.

[Dabrion]

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

So if the USSR can prevent a '41 attack, what happens? Russia attacks in '42? Germany runs amock in NA and Near East in '41?

There is an option for a 42 barb. But really you want to do that deliberately, if you do it as a glitched 41 barb your forces are likely not in good positions to exploit the additional year. Options are the Med/Africa/Near East. Sea-Lion is another chapter... The goal in that case should be to secure Italy from allied invasion. So Gb+Suez, Spain are good targets. Iraq, Persia is another option, there is a way to get Turkey into the boat that is quite devastating.

[Klydon]

I think if the Germans opt for a 42, they need to look at coming in through the Caucasus and being able to align Turkey as well in order to stretch the Russians out more, etc. That also puts the Germans right on the doorstep of all that nice oil.

[Extraneous]

ORIGINAL:  Numdydar

Sorry to keep spamming the board with my posts, but just keep thing of questions I would like answers to [:)] Especially since I have never played the board game at all. [:(]

In other games it seems like Germany has enough units to start the invasion of the low countries without needing to wait for new production. So my questions are:

1) Is it a good idea to use the O-chit in the second turn after Poland falls against Low Countries/France even if the weather is poor?

2) If you are going to wait for France, is going after Yugoslovia an option?

3) If neither of these are viable, is the best action to just do nothing like historical? Since Germany is on a tight schedule, it seems like a huge waste to just letting time pass.

2) Second Axis impulse DoW of Yugoslavia

20. The Axis declares war on: (if Japan declares war place USA entry chit in the USA (Ja) entry pool else place it in the USA (Ge/It) entry pool)
Poland, Spain, Turkey or any American country (1 USA entry chit and a 20% chance of another will be added to the USA entry pool)
Belgium, Finland, Rumania, Sweden or Switzerland (There is a 80% chance of a USA entry chit will be added to the USA entry pool)
Other minor (There is a 30% chance of a USA entry chit will be added to the USA entry pool)

19.6.2 Rumania
If the USSR hasn’t claimed Bessarabia:
• it cannot declare war on Rumania;
• Rumania can only align with Germany if Germany has declared war either on Yugoslavia or the USSR (not if the USSR has declared war on Germany), or if Germany controls Belgrade;
• Bulgaria can only align with Germany if Germany controls Belgrade or is at war with Greece; and
• Hungary can only align with Germany after Germany has declared war on Yugoslavia or the USSR.

19.4 Minor country units
Restrictions on use
Minor country units can move and fight outside their home country. However, you can only move a minor country land or aircraft unit outside the home country controlled by the minor, if half or more of its on map land and aircraft units are currently inside its home country (exception: Rumania becomes a full Axis ally ~ see 19.6.2 Rumania).

21. The Allies support an attacked minor (there is 70% chance of a USA entry chit will be added to the USA (Ge/It) entry pool)
This requires 4+ Allied corps or armies (not counting the units of the minor itself).

Germany
If Germany declares war (DoW) on Yugoslavia (Other minor) it then may align Hungary and Rumania (one per impulse).

Germany aligns Rumania
The USSR cannot claim Bessarabia because Rumania is aligned with Germany.
Germany would now receive all the Rumanian Oil. Since this will end the Rumania/Italy trade agreement Germany might want to start to trade Oil to Italy.
Rumania can move one unit into Yugoslavia on the surprise impulse and another unit after its reserves arrive on the next turn in the reinforcement stage.


Italy
Italy can surprise port attack the Yugoslavian naval units.
(Discussion of Italy conquering Yugoslavia to avoid complete conquest was discussed on AI for MWiF - Italy)

May want to DoW France, the CW, or both this would be an additional US entry chit roll.
May want to DoW Yugoslavia (Other minor) this would be an additional US entry chit roll.

Italy remains a Neutral Major Power If it doesn’t DoW France, the CW, or both.

As an Active Major power Italy can choose any action it wants.
As a Neutral Major Power would have to choose a combined action and could move two land units into Yugoslavia.
(See AI for MWiF-Italy for Italian Activity limits)


The Allies
The order for the Allies to align Yugoslavia would be the CW (Commonwealth), France, and the USSR.

If the USSR aligns Yugoslavia Germany can break the Nazi-Soviet pact and the USSR would remain a Neutral Major Power

For each of Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Sweden or Yugoslavia that the Soviet Union declares war, or a Soviet controlled unit enters, Germany may choose to either keep one of the build points it would normally send to the Soviet Union, or receive an extra oil from the Soviet Union, each turn. This choice cannot be changed later.

1939
It takes Germany 2 factories to produce a BP (Build Point). 2 times the production multiplier (0.75) = 1.5 BP
With all German factories producing and saving 1 oil resource and the USSR With 22 out of 29 factories producing and saving 1 oil resource.

If Germany takes the extra oil resource will take away the USSR saved oil resource.

If Germany retains the BP this will reduce the USSR production by 1 BP. And then Germany can either increase its production by 1 or increase its saved oil by 1.


Axis Overview
Yugoslavia has two factories and two resources. It is conquered when the enemy controls the factories at Belgrade and Zagreb. There are four borders with the Axis players: Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Rumania.

If the Axis players control Belgrade, Yugoslavia then Germany can align Bulgaria.

The Negative side
The Axis will probably have to initially be content by containing Yugoslavia until after Poland falls. This would mean no surprise impulse.
Italy looses its Rumanian oil.

The Positive side
The USSR cannot claim Bessarabia.
Germany gets all the Rumanian oil.
Hungary and Rumania quickly become aligned by the Axis.
You don’t want the USSR to align Yugoslavia because of the Nazi-Soviet pact.
Unless the CW has sent 2 units from Great Britain to the Mediterranean area it cannot support Yugoslavia.
France cannot afford to support Yugoslavia and hope to defend against Germany.

[delatbabel]

Very good post, Extraneous.

I would add one thing. The only time that I have played WiFFE as Russia and been thoroughly thrashed by the Germans was when the Germans did exactly this:
* DOW Yugoslavia on Axis impulse 2.
* CW aligns Yugoslavia.
* Germany used both O chits to take out France (in fact we were using the O point rules, but effectively the same thing).
* Germany concentrated on building O chits throughout 1940 and for the rest of the game.
* Germany launched Barbarossa in M/J 1941 with a stack of units in Chisinau, and lots of O chits in store (I think it was 3 or so), and drove to the Caucasus to align Turkey, and took that route to support Italy in the middle east.
* Italy took out Suez and focussed on the drive into the middle east. Italy and Japan linked up in India after Japan launched a successful assault in India (didn't lead to conquest, but contained the CW units there). Nearly all of the middle eastern minors were aligned to Italy.

The thing to look at next time you're examining the map -- there are in fact only 3 victory cities in European USSR. Leningrad, Moscow, Kiev. There are many more in the middle east -- Istanbul, Suez, Jerusalem, Baghdad, Riyadh, Teheran, Aden. Those 6 come with minimal allied defences. If you're trying to win the game (not the war) as the axis then the victory cities are your focus.

[paulderynck]

Germany should not have been able to break the garrison ratio in 1941, building as she did.

[delatbabel]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Germany should not have been able to break the garrison ratio in 1941, building as she did.

It was, and quite often can, depending on the losses taken. Germany spent O chits in France more to ensure not taking losses than anything else. Also, having Rumania and Hungary aligned earlier means that the minor units count towards the garrison ratio, so that makes it easier to break the pact.

[paulderynck]

OK, I'll amend that: Germany should not have been able to break the garrison ratio in 1941, building as she did, unless the Russians built and deployed unskillfully.