The thank you morvael mild blizzard AAR-Toidi welcome

[Toidi]

Re: 1,

I am not sure - counterattacking in December is almost impossible (same as in January - last turn I attacked with 100,000 men 2 brigades and a division and I lost - this turn I did win [barely, 2.1:1], but I used 125,000 troops against 20,000 and whole Luftwaffe was bombing the units before). In December I attacked once, against weak cavalry, and was lucky with the roll, + if I recall correctly, I used a Romanian mountain brigade. In January, the displayed cv are divided more or less by a factor of 5 in the initial attack statistics. As such, you can reliably attack only with Finns and mountain troops. Maybe February will bring some change, but Dec - Jan counter-attacks are almost impossible, similarly as before.

Re: 2

Well, when I play Soviets in blizzard I only tend use units you describe. I aim for cv of 3 (6 doubled, but sometimes I go with 5, especially January-February) when I put them to the front. Weaker Soviet units can be successful against non-entrenched units.

However, this game my whole army is within 10 mp from rail - that is a major factor contributing to it being much tougher than in the blizzard you played before (in that game, it was probably much closer to 30 mp on average, 50-60 in some areas). On the other hand, your army is much weaker than the one you had the previous game (both in terms of armaments and manpower). I expect you to have similar truck shortage as before, though due to different factors.

Re: 3

I agree, though the impact is probably less than you imagine. The morale generally decreases each time unit loses a fight when it is above national morale (NM) by at least a point (sometimes 2 points). Later on, when the unit morale is below NM it does matter somewhat as simple loss may not yield a morale decrease. I would generally not overestimate the issue - most failed attack by the Red Army on a unit below NM brings at least one morale point back so to fully use this rule, Soviet player must be clinical with the attacks. You may be personally affected as you succeed in 90% + of your attacks. In my blizzard I am generally closer to 2/3 of victories (yes, I aim higher, but I end up with 60-70%) and that is the case for most players - so the rule for me will likely not make that much of a difference.

Note that last game my army lost a lot of morale not due to your attacks, but due to units being in poor supply (it is generally a point a turn as long as unit is above NM). I was very badly surprised this game when my best mountain unit lost 5 points morale just being in bad supply (though they were in range with their respective HQ and below 100 mp for supply). I noticed because I really tried to farm morale on it for the blizzard and was checking its morale each turn. Last game it must have affected a lot of my best units, as most of them were in the north, which means them being around 100 mp from supply when blizzard started.

[Toidi]

ORIGINAL: morvael

To clarify: CV is not divided in half or something like that. Lowering of the CV from what you see on the map to what you see as initial CV in combat comes from disruption that Axis suffer when attacking in First Winter. Similar to the one they get each turn, even if not attacking. Something like disruption you get when attacking across rivers. And this disruption is huge, as it's 20+Random(10)%. Look at 22.3.2.1. This was the rule I mentioned in the .11 readme. Perhaps it should be reduced for defensive reserves, but otherwise it's still there.

Morvael, I am not sure. It seems to me that the attacking cv is divided exactly as before and lead to much more loss of cv than just 0.7 of a unit - see the bug report I submitted. Also, on the Soviet attacks, seeing the end results, it seems to me that the old style division of cv is in place (though rather seen as Soviet attack cv increase by 2, similarly as in the older style display of values). That is further confirmed when I see the cv when mountain units are attacked - suddenly the x2 multiplier for Soviets is gone.

What may be is that the additional dividers of cv for Axis are gone when the unit is defending (those checks depending on morale and admin ratings, where failed check divided the cv by a factor depending on given month) as relatively consistently the final cv for Axis is what is displayed less 20-30% due to disruption).

[rmonical]

T33: We are playing random weather so this is the last guaranteed blizzard turn. In February, defense is almost back to normal in blizzard (absent pre-combat disruption and failed leader checks which, as Toidi points out, remain very significant). I think the first 9 turns under the new rules represents a significant improvement over the original rules for the Axis units which are dug in and in favorable terrain. This may be the results of my expectation (or hopes) for the new rules. Also, by paying attention to the displayed CV values, I appear to have been less aggressive with my cavalry corps than may have been safe.

[rmonical]

Back from travel and getting caught up: T34:

[rmonical]

T35: A few more attacks. Front is static.

[rmonical]

T36: Switching over to defense.

[rmonical]

T37 - last blizzard rule turn. That means the pre-combat disruption bug is no longer operative so the Axis will get a lot more effective even though the mild blizzard rule nerf is still operative.

The 7th Independent and 33rd Reserve armies are holding the line in the north.The have been on refit all

winter and are still very weak because of the length of the supply line.

Next in line are the 23rd and 28th armies which are in decent, not great shape. 2d Shock Army is in

reserve and relieving divisions up front so they can take replacements. Further back, the 34th army from

NW Front is building a line in the unlikely event the Axis make a major push up here. Other divisions are

in reserve and building strong points to slow any breakthrough down. Tank brigades are in already prepared positions.

Kalinin Front is in decent shape except in the south (where it is farthest from the rail). Again, it is
hard to get replacements to the front line units. The 32nd and 54th armies are attached to Stavka and were
attacking until recently and are also in decent shape. The defense is least deep behind 54th army, but I
have a few weeks to fix that.

Moscow MD and Volokh front will defend in front in front of Moscow. 13th Army is moving south to join the rest of Western front.

[rmonical]

Going south, the rest of Volokh Front and Bryansk Front have been close to rail and stayed up to strength. SW Front operated furthest from rail and I have been rotating divisions in to keep it up to strength, but it is weaker. Fresh divisions are on the way. Reserve armies are digging in along the Don but there is plenty of space between the the operational fronts and the reserve armies for Axis encirclement. There are almost 60 rifle divisions in deep reserve that will be moving up to close the gap over the next few turns as they hit 45 morale. Transcaucus Front has two armies and primarily shortens the line for SW Front. It is in decent shape. Southern Front has received a steady trickle of divisions but many are still depleted. 18th army is in reserve and building a line.

I did not realize that Microsoft Paint has a max length so I lost the image of most of Southern and the Caucus Fronts. Caucus Front is in good shape and backed up by fortifications.

I have no illusions. The Axis will be able to go where they want this summer. They just cannot do it all along the front this year.

[rmonical]

T38 Even though the first week of March is all blizzard, as expected, the Axis attacks are much more effective than last week because pre-combat disruption is no longer in effect.

[rmonical]

T40: The attacks even in March blizzard have been effective. Almost all of the German mobile force has appeared and is mostly North of Orel. This kind of makes sense because the greatest chance for "not mud" are in the north zone.

The Soviets cannot create the troop density to hold without infantry corps. This is a more important time for the Axis than I would have expected.

[rmonical]

Late March - 1942. Stavka orders a massive counter attack to free the surrounded divisions from Bryansk and western Fronts. Aircraft are sent from throughout the front. Additional artillery regiments and tank battalions are allocated. The attack fails- the divisions are lost.

[rmonical]

T54 update - I still have not posted my conclusion on the new blizzard rule. This is largely because I think everything will change again when the pre-combat disruption check fix is deployed in v.12. Anyway, Toidi is carefully carving up the Soviet army while keeping his mobile divisions in a compact mass.

[rmonical]

With random weather - May was almost all mud and June was almost all clear - so the Axis have at least a 20 turn campaign season this summer. Soviet supply storage has fallen from almost 600000 tons to 475000 tons. Do not know if this will become a problem. I have a 159 heavy industry left. Soviet strength is about to drop below 6 million. Soviet armaments are over 400K and vehicles are 125K/106K.

[Bozo_the_Clown]

The attack fails- the divisions are lost.

The CV values of your infantry divisions are incredibly low. I see nothing but 1 or 2 CV divisions. Why is that? Did you fiddle around with the TOE settings?

[morvael]

ORIGINAL: rmonical

T54 update - I still have not posted my conclusion on the new blizzard rule. This is largely because I think everything will change again when the pre-combat disruption check fix is deployed in v.12.

Oh yes, it will. For now the new higher CV are rather only psychological in their impact, because the disruption checks reduce German strength a lot and they are nearly as weak as before. But psychological impact may prevent Soviet from being too aggressive and that is already a form of help for the Axis.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Bozo_the_Clown

The attack fails- the divisions are lost.

The CV values of your infantry divisions are incredibly low. I see nothing but 1 or 2 CV divisions. Why is that? Did you fiddle around with the TOE settings?

Low morale I am guessing.

[Bozo_the_Clown]

Low morale I am guessing.

Even the stacks with two guard divisions have only a CV of 5. Kind of unusual.

[morvael]

In mild blizzard rules the virtual multiplication by x2 for on-counter values is no more.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Bozo_the_Clown

Even the stacks with two guard divisions have only a CV of 5. Kind of unusual.

Not so sure. I've an AI game on the go as I wanted to test the new blizzard rules before my PBEM gets that far. Just started Feb 42 and my rifle divisions are mostly down to 1-2 CV. The only ones around 3 are a small strategic reserve I've been building up. My logic is to swap those in for the weaker front line units come the end of the winter so my front lines are up to withstanding the inevitable renewal of the German offensive.

I've not exactly optimised things since its more to test some key stages, but I wonder if its an effect of the last patch?

[Bozo_the_Clown]

In mild blizzard rules the virtual multiplication by x2 for on-counter values is no more.

But this is a snow turn. I'm just curious if he adjusted his TOE settings and what the implications are.