First, is how far out can you detect the incoming missiles? SM-3s can fly a long way in the game so somehow, to take full advantage of their enormous range, you need to figure out how to detect them a long way out. Longer detection range means more opportunities to take a shot.
This is one of my biggest issues with modeling the "ASBM vs CSG" scenarios. The US (and Russia) spent lots of money during the cold war developing the ability to detect missile launches. With the DSP and SBIRS constellation, somebody in the US
will know about the missile launch basically as soon as it clears the launcher. The only question is how quickly does that information filter down to the relevant commanders.
There are a couple other sticking points on the discussion that I rarely see raised:
1. No ASM that has enountered a target employing active/passive countermeasures has
ever hit it's target. You read that correctly. I currently think Command underestimates the effectiveness of EW. (
Reference this paper, which was posted on the forum a few months ago) While missile seekers have become more advanced, EW capabilities have advanced along the same line.
This graduate thesis lays out a good history of US Naval application of EW and deception against the USSR, and how similar techniques would complicate the PRCs ability to develop a firing solution.
2. There's evidence out there that the DF-21D employs a submunition warhead. In the leaked (or Released, considering it's availability)
The Science of Second Artillery Campaigns the PRC lays out it's nuclear and conventional doctrine. It lists various attack strategies against a CSG, involving either light, harassing attacks, demonstration launches into the water, and possibly using EMP against C2 systems. The only strategy that mentions a direct attack on the CSG is the following:
Concentrated fire assault” (集火突击), which entails targeting the carrier
as a center of flight operations: “When many carrier-borne aircraft are used
in continuous air strikes against our coast, in order to halt the powerful air
raids, the enemy’s core carrier should be struck as with a ‘heavy hammer.’
The conventional missile forces should be a select group carrying sensitive
penetrating submunitions and, using the ‘concentrated firepower assault’
method, a wide-coverage strike against the enemy’s core carrier should be
executed, striving to destroy the enemy’s carrier-borne planes, the control
tower [island] and other easily damaged and vital positions.”
This has interesting implications for the US. For one, it means that the DF-21Ds CEP isn't as important, since the submunitions would spread out. It also gives the Chinese excellent escalation control; as they would mission kill the carrier with several hits, but likely wouldn't sink it or cause egregious loss of life.
