Islands of Destiny: RA 5.0 Japanese Side

[Anachro]

I'm cheering on the IJN (actually more importantly the IJA)! Banzai, banzai, banzai! May you make the rest of this game quite difficult for that uppity Yank, Canoerebel.

What are your thoughts on Northern Australia? He's made it irrelevant and you might start thinking of a way to extract the troops. That is, unless you feel you can still make it a thorn in his LOC.

[John 3rd]

I started my withdrawal from the Darwin--Katherine area on January 1st. The troops are having to move overland as Darwin is now not safe for an evacuation. Am gathering shipping at Soerabaja for the lifts.

Dan has allowed me to pick-up 18-20 units (A LOT OF CD) from the Eastern Marshalls and Gilberts. The troop totals are at about 18,000+ there and I am now getting ready to lift an entire ID and several Base Forces from Lunga--Tulagi. Am leaving 'holding forces' at each location. He'll still have to TAKE THEM but I am living to fight another day.

[DanSez]

A supportive chirp, keep up the good fight.
Pulling back to the Marshalls is a good plan. When will the B-29s start showing up?

In my PBEM games I have negociated some limits on CV task forces so neither side can create a singularity, but we also have an upper limit to squadron resize. The only advice I would give is that expanding to 42-45 or so probably would not cause ripples but if you max-out the squadrons, then the haters will have more fuel for their fire. Your victory or loss in a game is transitory and insignificant in comparison to your status within the community because of the good work done with your mods. I encourage you to do what you think is right.

While lurking in Lowpe's Pick-Up game, one of the interesting questions asked was Carrier-vs-Carrier battle after 1943 maybe a waste of resources when you should be attacking the Amphib and Bombardment fleets. I don't know the answer, but you might also want to think about that as part of a policy to maintain the Fleet in Being.

[John 3rd]

Hey Dan.

I know B-29s are due to arrive in limited numbers at any time. Have got AA and at least one GOOD Fighter unit at every major Oil Center waiting for the inevitable moment...

I like your term of 'singularity.' Don't care about the 'haters.' They will do what they will without thought or care. Have limited my work of what I've done to about a dozen or so units.

Michael and I had a very good, short chat yesterday and I am going to follow some advice he provided. We'll work on the hit him where he isn't strategy as well as try to work the attrition game on his airframes.

Am very close to big upgrades to my aircraft. Peggy comes in next month. The improved models of Frank and George are also due within the 1-2 months. Far better SR. The a& Sam is now on the vent horizon and would LOVE to equip my CVs with that plane. The waiting game is not my friend but it does have some serious advantages...

[uncivil_servant]

Just from the outside looking in I want to explain how this comes across. You may simply not care, and that is fine.
1. You are playing a mod that gives lots of extra benefits and ships to the IJ side.
2. Like some, you keep the KB or super KB+ (with extras) all together as a hammer to hit whatever you want, sailing wherever you want.
3. You suffer a setback where you were caught out of position with your carrier fleets, one not supporting the other where one was behind your enemies lines.
4. Your opponent, to counter you continual presence of the sledgehammer adopts the exact same strategy as you (huge allied KB)
5. Now suddenly that isn't fair as he has more carriers that you
6. Now you are going to game the simulation by making your air units as large as possible where, if I am not mistaken, the game engine favors large airgroups vs smaller airgroups equal numbers to equal numbers.

You set the precedent (huge massive carrier fleets) and now that your opponent is as/nearly as one dimensional with the all/vast majority of his you stated quite clearly, "I have decided to go on a serious re-sizing binge for Fighter, DB, and TB Daitai. Normally I limit myself to 36 or 48. The gloves are off. I just re-sized a number of units to 63 planes. If he is going to place EVERYTHING in one hex and be unassailable then this is a counter to that."

Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Alternately, your opponent being a Civil War buff...
Be Jackson. Hit him in the Valley to pull a portion of his forces away. Strike his rear areas and supply lines to make him react to you and not him. Ambush smaller navies sent to get rid of your smaller annoying attacks.
Something other than how can I game the system to get an advantage like I used to have. Your KB was once sailing around with HOW MANY carriers and auxiliary place transports? Versus your opponents possible how many?

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Looks like Verse 30 equates to the Confederate saying of 'hit them where they ain't!' This will be the plan then.

I have Infantry flooding into all bases that could reach Lvl-8/Lvl-9 AF in the DEI. No more freebies for the Southern Paddling Kid.

Have got 100,000 Fuel at Truk and another 125,000 in my AOs. This will give me operational capability for the Fleet. Am waiting for my new construction to finish some assignments in the Home Islands and then they will travel to Truk and join up.

Just took out Satawal. Truk has been getting reconned continously and I looked around only to find Satawal operating as a seaplane base. It got plastered by BCs Kongo and Hiei and then 50% of an Infantry Regiment from Truk landed and crushed the New Caledonia Detachment and a large US BF. Scratch nearly 1,500 Allied troops and 9 PBMs.

The game escalates--RIGHT? One player reacts to the other and so on...

On AcePylut's note of 'start again' I have come up with one idea. After looking at those numbers defending the Allied TF, I have decided to go on a serious re-sizing binge for Fighter, DB, and TB Daitai. Normally I limit myself to 36 or 48. The gloves are off. I just re-sized a number of units to 63 planes. If he is going to place EVERYTHING in one hex and be unassailable then this is a counter to that. Doubt if it shall work but I am going to try.

[John 3rd]

uncivil-servant: EXCELLENT Post! Your points are pretty solid and on-point.

In your comment after "live by the sword, die by the sword" you have quite correctly divined my intentions for how to fight Dan from this point forward.

Dan's point above has made me re-think some of what I am doing regarding re-size. I've already started to re-size the units I re-sized (got that one??!!) down to 48 aircraft. That is the maximum size of what the IJN produces so that will be my own self-imposed limit. Two units could not be re-sized as I had locked them up with their third re-size. Cannot do anything with those two (one Fighter and one TB) but the others will go down to the 48 number.

Always remember that there were also changes made to the Allied OOB. Dan has already changed up and converted over a dozen ships to CVEs that aren't in the historical OOB as well as brought in the extra CVLs that are added. His extra Essex and Midway CVs are in the pipeline but one won't see those for a bit.

Really appreciate the Posts by both Dan and uncivil as well as my discussion with Michael. The more the merrier gang. Got an idea/comment PLEASE sing out!

[John 3rd]

On a side note, Dan has always liked concentration like this. In our first epic match that went into 1945 this amalgamation wasn't nearly so powerful since I had managed to sink a number of Allied CVs PRIOR to 1944.

[AcePylut]

Sun Tzu... on "Singularities"...

Verse 13: By discovering the enemy's dispositions and remaining invisible ourselves, we can keep our forces concentrated, while the enemy's must be divided.

Verse 14-15: We can form a single united body, while the enemy must split up into fractions. Hence there will be a whole pitted against separate parts of a whole, which means that we shall be many to the enemy's few. And if we are able thus to attack an inferior force with a superior one, our opponents will be in dire straits.

Verse 24: Carefully compare the opposing army with your own, so that you may know where strength is superabundant and where it is deficient.

Verse 28: Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances.

Verse 33: He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain.
Don't forget Verse 34.

[Bif1961]

Japanese Destroyer Captain Hara used Sun Tzu verse 28 along with vesre 33.

[DanSez]

Not to distract the thread but a comment:

My reference to 'singularity', isn't about the Sun Tzu's principles or Mahan Theory of concentration of force which were not anywhere historically possible like we can within the game.

It is a reference to the limitations of the game and there are areas where the numbers outweigh everything. Like in the Black Hole, once the forces of gravity concentrate matter to a threshold, the observer (opponent?) will be frozen at the event horizon and eventually torn asunder by the forces the observer can not withstand.

(back to lurker mode...)

[AcePylut]

Good point… I think it applies to the “massing” of carriers too. IF all the carriers are in one hex, then they aren’t in any other hex and the the kill zone of the massed Carriers is an effective range of 6 hexes or so

I like the very last verse too…Verse 35: The five elements (water, fire, wood, metal, earth) are not always equally predominant; the four seasons make way for each other in turn. There are short days and long; the moon has its periods of waning and waxing.

I think of the elements as “aircraft, ships, ground troops, supplies, fuel” (within reason). IF the enemy has massed ships with airplanes, go in with a large amount of subs and kill CV's and tankers. If it’s men, get the supplies. If it’s ships, get the fuel. If it's planes, kill the CV's. Etc. This game is great, because everything that has strength has a weakness. (of course, it’s much more complicated than such a simple breakdown to 5 elements)

There’s also the psychological element. If the enemy has 15 carriers and you have 5, he only needs 10 to have a 2-1 advantage which should pretty much guarantee victory… but if you knock out 2 or 3 with subs… even though the enemy CV strength is above a “guarantee”… the psychological effect of losing 2-3 may make him think he’ll lose 7 or 8 and cause hesitation and hesitation equals time.. and time equals victory

[uncivil_servant]

Random thoughts...
I do not profess to be an expert, just going by what you showed in the Victory Point screen a page back and that your opponent is shepperding his invasion task forces with his big Allied KB (Big Sheep Dog - BSD).

1. The continuing sheppard-ing will make the whole group move as slow as the slowest members. Getting any future invasions may also be time consuming.
(like the wiley-e-coyote cartoon with the Big Sheep dog.)
2. You seem to have done a number on his land units. So if that is where he has gotten hit the hardest - those sheep. Hit him most there. I don't know if he moves exclusively from WC to PH with his remaining land units but if you have smaller mobile carrier hunter groups (wolves/wolfpacks) out there looking for these troop transports - you'll be hitting his sheep before they are around his sheep dog.
3. If he then goes hunting your wolves, that slows his time table and moves his big sheep dog.
4. Keeping some/all of his BSD off hunting your wolves means you can sacrifice scores of land based planes to go after any further invasions, even if in older planes. Make him dance between your forces and split any BSD into smaller BSD's, which can cause you to assemble wolfpacks to isolate and remove.
5. His BSD cannot win the war, only his sheep can by taking territory and if you have severely hurt his land based forces (or his replenishment abilities thereof).
6. Keep him from using any dormant India based forces in strategic invasions by luring him into land attacking in SE Asia, trick them into the long slog from India to Indochina. Make it easy but time consuming for him to take the territory. Units slogging through the jungle are not available for strategic invasions. He cannot win with Rangoon or points SE of there but he can win by taking/isolating the DEI.
7. Trust your LBA to defend against any non BSD protected invasions. He may also be too afraid to have many non-BSD invasions for fear of LBA and any unknown wolfpack hunter groups.

If I have said anything incredibly stupid please let me know. I am more commenting on the psychology of the fight between you both rather than sound game strategies.

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

uncivil-servant: EXCELLENT Post! Your points are pretty solid and on-point.

In your comment after "live by the sword, die by the sword" you have quite correctly divined my intentions for how to fight Dan from this point forward.

Dan's point above has made me re-think some of what I am doing regarding re-size. I've already started to re-size the units I re-sized (got that one??!!) down to 48 aircraft. That is the maximum size of what the IJN produces so that will be my own self-imposed limit. Two units could not be re-sized as I had locked them up with their third re-size. Cannot do anything with those two (one Fighter and one TB) but the others will go down to the 48 number.

Always remember that there were also changes made to the Allied OOB. Dan has already changed up and converted over a dozen ships to CVEs that aren't in the historical OOB as well as brought in the extra CVLs that are added. His extra Essex and Midway CVs are in the pipeline but one won't see those for a bit.

Really appreciate the Posts by both Dan and uncivil as well as my discussion with Michael. The more the merrier gang. Got an idea/comment PLEASE sing out!

[John 3rd]

Will comment to uncivil-servant's thoughts when I get from running some errands.

Sometimes you DO live right as Dai Nippon!

January 20, 1944 sees two ambushes set by Japan. One is over Gove and the other over Port Moresby. They bear excellent results!

[John 3rd]

Here is the casualty breakdown:

[AcePylut]

HEre's a thought - I see that he lost 5 C47's to Ops. Any idea where he's flying in supply with those C47's? Any place of his that are 'exposed' that you think might be short on supplies, that would require air supply to the point where he loses 5 C47's to Ops?

Any chance those places (or that place) is in range of a group of your fighters? Can you LRCAP that base (if the conditions are right and there's no CAP over the base) and knock out a healthy number of C47's?

If not, no biggie. But if you can, you've (Verse 23) roused him, and learned the principle of his activity or inactivity and (Verse 12) - If you do not wish to fight where he is supplying with those C47's, you've traced out a "line of encampment" by thrown something odd and unaccountable in his way.

[John 3rd]

The C-47 idea is interesting. He lost FIVE more today. Gonna start looking around...

[John 3rd]

The thoughts I have been having is to try and hit his supply lines coming into eastern Aussieland. Currently I hold Horn Isle and that will not last long. It needs supply to hold out and I am thinking about that.

He is moving most of his troops through Australia to Normanton and loading them from that Port. Recon shows the Port fully expanded and the AF nearly so. Am toying with the idea of turning the 2nd TK Div around and sending it, plus several TK Reg, to threaten this base. Would certainly serve to distract him for a bit. Course--might also mean the the destruction of these TK units. Risky but could be an interesting idea.

The Kido Butai sits at about 600 aircraft with the four new and one old CV in the Home Islands nearly ready to leave. They add over 300 more planes. IF I brought all them together we would field nearly 1,000 planes. These are numbers that cannot be ignored. I keep thinking of hitting the eastern Aussie Approaches and seeing what we might be able to take out.

There are nine Glen I-Boats gathering at Rabaul. Intend to set-up them up in a patrol line to try and find his supply line. IF we can do that then PERHAPS a strike would be in order.

Another idea might be to take those five CVs in the Home Islands and move them to Singapore to threaten targets on that side of the map.

Just sort of running a stream of consciousness presently. ANY CV/Kaigun Operation requires fuel. Working from the Western DEI has advantages as we're close to our fuel. As stated earlier we have roughly 225,000 fuel at Truk or in AOs for that side of the map. One thing is for certain using the Fleet--NO fuel hogs will travel with the TFs. It will be CA, CL, and Akatsuki-DDs (Range 8,300) doing the work. Need LONG legs and not fuel suckers...

[John 3rd]

Happy TURKEY Day everyone!

Sent a morning turn to Dan and think I'll see one back tonight.

[John 3rd]

January 25, 1944

The enemy begins making a move shuffling ships to and fro along the Normanton--Portland Roads axis. Will he strike Horn Isle? Who cares. The base has been slowly evacuated for the last 90 or so days.

Bringing out the shipping provides for an active SS round. I-43 is sunk by ASW, however, I-156 plants a pair of TTs into CL Mobile. NICE! Seven more SS are vectored in to hit the slower moving shipping bringing up the end of the Allied column.

This moves allows for the first of three DD Fast Transport missions ferrying in 1/3 of an Inf Div to Gove. The 2nd marine ID is holding there but hasn't the strength to dislodge the Japanese defenders. An additional 1,400 Infantry arrive this day. Supplies are reasonably plentiful at about 10,000. We'll attempt a counter-attack after the second lift brings in another wave of fresh infantry. Four Helen Sentai get orders to bomb the 2nd Marines tomorrow. Nearly 120 planes report that they are 'ready.'

[John 3rd]

January 28, 1944

The month is drawing to a close.

Japan's Sub Arm has had a magnificent war. I usually do an updated sinking/damaged ship report for the SS every few months and am about due to another. With Allies ASW improvement the exchange rate of sunk subs for sunk Allied shipping is drifting closer and closer to 1-to-1.

Today sees good work but lost subs as well:

I-175 SINKS DE LeHardy and sunk by the remaining two DE of that ASW TF near Merauke

I-166 SINKS LST's -342 AND -363 at Horn Isle

I-181 is sunk by two AMs and 2 DEs NW of Merauake


A DE and 2 LST in exchange for 2 I-Boats. Not great but is the reality of January 1944.