Invasion of Hawaii

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Japanese could have invaded and held Hawaii about as much as the Confederates could have taken and held New York City.

Excellent analogy, except you need Brooklyn to be dense jungle. [:'(]

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
I think from a human vs human standpoint the developers knew out of the blocks that a truly historical sim would not fly from a gaming standpoint.

I perfectly understood this. I suspect this Japanese on Steroids thing is precisely what is keeping the many PBEM/AARs alive. No rocket science.

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
It has been done several times by various JFB using all sorts of Vanilla Campaigns to Various Mods.

With the old 10 IJN replacement pilots per month...

... Pyrrhus of Epirus says "hello"...

[Canoerebel]

Casablanca scene in which Nazi is questioning Rick at Rick's:

Nazi: "How would you feel about Germans in New York City."

Rick: "I don't know. Ask me when they get there. But there's some parts of New York I'd advise them not to invade."

(very loose paraphrase from dim memory)

[Revthought]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


Nor does the game really model partisans. I've lived on Oahu twice for a total of four years. Get off the coast and it's rough, rough terrain, with a lot of places to hide and strike from. The Pali especially is dense. Holding Pearl Harbor is not holding Oahu, let alone the outer islands that could have been supplied with guerrilla weapons by sub from CONUS. Heck, try patrolling the North Shore of Oahu without a couple of divisions. Can't do it.

The Hawaiian population considered themselves American. They would have been surly at best, wildly inventive and devious at worst.

You're correct, and you don't even need to include the native population of Hawaii. The continental United States is close enough that you could keep an endless stream of men and material going into the islands.

And as you point out, seizing Oahu would not have been enough. The Japanese would have had to seize and hold every island in the chain to even have a shot at keeping any garrison supplied in Oahu, which brings us back to the supply issue. Had any Japanese forces made it to Hawaii undetected. And then somehow managed to actually take the island of Oahu they would have almost immediately withered on the vine. The Japanese couldn't have fed them nor provided them with the munitions they needed to battle partisans, let alone the counter invasion which would have come sooner rather than later.

[rustysi]

Doable or not, fantasy or not, overreach or not, at least some in the Japanese hierarchy were intending to extend their 'protective perimeter'. Midway was a prelude to the invasion of the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago. The Aleutian Islands were not a feint. The Solomon Islands were a prelude to further expansion to the SE. Can you say New Caledonia?

I'm not saying that Japan could do this, history shows us she could not. Just saying some in their military/political environs were at least considering these extensions.

[btd64]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Doable or not, fantasy or not, overreach or not, at least some in the Japanese hierarchy were intending to extend their 'protective perimeter'. Midway was a prelude to the invasion of the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago. The Aleutian Islands were not a feint. The Solomon Islands were a prelude to further expansion to the SE. Can you say New Caledonia?

I'm not saying that Japan could do this, history shows us she could not. Just saying some in their military/political environs were at least considering these extensions.

Now figure in that the Allies failed at Midway and lost the 3 CV's....GP

[John 3rd]

Realistically, the Japanese could NEVER have supplied the Chain. In the game it is feasible with strong planning, foresight, and some luck. IRL--NOT!

Had Midway been a complete disaster for the Americans, I still cannot fathom the Japanese actually succeeding in taking the islands. Maybe...probably not...

[btd64]

It's sort of like the German attempt to land on British soil....GP

[rustysi]

ORIGINAL: General Patton

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Doable or not, fantasy or not, overreach or not, at least some in the Japanese hierarchy were intending to extend their 'protective perimeter'. Midway was a prelude to the invasion of the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago. The Aleutian Islands were not a feint. The Solomon Islands were a prelude to further expansion to the SE. Can you say New Caledonia?

I'm not saying that Japan could do this, history shows us she could not. Just saying some in their military/political environs were at least considering these extensions.

Now figure in that the Allies failed at Midway and lost the 3 CV's....GP

Still would have been problematical for Japan as the Army did not wish to support any such extensions. Now in the game we have not such problems.

ME: "General Yamashita, take Hawaii."
GENERAL YAMASHITA: "Hai"[:D]

[Zorch]

Operation FS was to have taken Fuji, Samoa, and New Caledonia in July-August. It was cancelled after Midway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_FS

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Operation FS was to have taken Fuji, Samoa, and New Caledonia in July-August. It was cancelled after Midway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_FS

After reading "Clash of the Titans", where I first learned of that purposed operation, I believe that a 7Dec. attack/occupation on Hawaii would have had more benefit than just the occupation of the island. It may have forced all the American Pacific carriers into a battle where they could have been destroyed.

[Revthought]

ORIGINAL: General Patton

Now figure in that the Allies failed at Midway and lost the 3 CV's....GP

A complete reversal? Lost three carriers but disabled/sank one Japanese carrier? Maybe the push South would have gone better for Japan. Even if it had, their goal of cutting off Australia from the United States was a pipe dream. Maybe a slight delay in the European time table as USN forces were shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific, but probably not. And maybe you'd see an earlier coordination of the RN and the USN in the Pacific (Churchill might have had to "loan" his carriers to the US after all).

To be honest, I do not actually envision that radical of a departure from history.

Certainly, even under an "opposite Midway" scenario, I do not imagine that the Japanese armed forces could have agreed to take Hawaii, or actually managed it if they had agreed.

Besides, those reverse Midway scenarios are so hard to play out in one's head because SO much would have to be different. For example, you'd basically have to assume that:

1. SIGNET didn't exist
2. The Japanese had more carriers than were actually present (see point 1)
3. The Japanese somehow have intelligence on US naval movements (see point 1)

[Barb]

Or, even without the conditions Revthought mentioned it was still possible based on the other factors:
1) Japanes submarine scouting line in place at the time (one sub was not on time and Yorktown TF had just passed by its patrol sector)
2) Better organized search, Floatplane from Tone not delayed on take off, better reporting
3) Earlier detection of the enemy = no swapping of ordonance, 2nd Wave on its way to hit allies already, would probably sunk Yorktown in the first strike.
4) 1st wave would be landed, refueled and probably in the air by the time the Dauntlesses arrived, could even clob some on their way in.
5) 2nd wave would have probably got into Hornet and Enterprise and take them out of action.
6) even if the Dauntlesses striking the KB Carriers, they would have empty decks, ammo stored, fuel lines empty... even with 2 out of action there was still plenty of place to land on remaining planes, rearm and send them to finish US crippled carriers.
7) Japanese Main Battleship force would arrive to flatten out the Midway atoll and support the invasion.

Probable outcome:
- 3 US carriers sunk, Midway in Japanese hands, most of the 429 Navy carrier crew members dead or captured (shot down, ditched, landed on Midway and captured), another about 80 Army/Marine crews with the same fate (presuming B-17s, PBYs and B-26s would be evacuated), Allied cruisers/destroyers run away with what ship crews they could pick up from the carriers.
- No Guadalcanal campaign, with just 3 carriers left (Wasp, Saratoga, Ranger) - and I presume Ranger would be retained for Atlantic duty anyway - up till November 1943
- 2-3 Jap carriers damaged, but back in action by the end of 1942, Operation SF (Fiji, Noumea, Espiritu Santo, Samoa) delayed for a month or so. Still powerful KB with Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiyo, Junyo, Ryujo, Zuiho, Ryuho and what remained undamaged from the KB after Midway - all combat ready, or finishing repairs...
- Possible capture of Port Moresby with enlarged perimeter down south to Noumea-Fiji. Allied offensives delayed by year, or shift to some another theatre - with the supply lines to Oz cut off, Australia would hardly become a springboard to New Guinea offensives. And all the supplies would have to go either down south or around the globe to supply another Island invested by the enemy (after Britain).

[witpqs]

Shattered Sword showed that Tone's scout plane would not have seen the USN carriers even had it been on time, there was no rearming, the IJN carrier decks were busy cycling fighters (the LBA and later piecemeal carrier attacks mattered). Also, it is quite likely that the invasion force was not adequate for the job.

Shattered Sword is really quite a work of analysis. Give it a read.

[dave sindel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Shattered Sword showed that Tone's scout plane would not have seen the USN carriers even had it been on time, there was no rearming, the IJN carrier decks were busy cycling fighters (the LBA and later piecemeal carrier attacks mattered). Also, it is quite likely that the invasion force was not adequate for the job.

Shattered Sword is really quite a work of analysis. Give it a read.

I actually started reading this book last night. From just the Introduction and Foreword, I can tell that it is going to be quite an interesting read...

[Revthought]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

The game was Between the Storms with Michael. The Japanese IJN get some additional ships AND the Allies ALSO get additional ships. Since it is based on the Treaty Years of 5:5:3, the Allies are actually STRONGER then the Japanese in 1941.


It was a complete blast.

Well, that's all relative. Maybe in raw numbers, but not in quality of say, trained pilots, nor quantity of say, fleet carriers.

[jwolf]

IMHO the biggest difference between the game and history is the incredible level of arrogance the Japanese had at the time of Midway, and which Japanese players avoid (well, most of them [:D]). In brief, the IJN in June 1942 was so dismissive of Allied, particularly USN, capabilities that they were a disaster waiting to happen. This is detailed very well in Shattered Sword (great book BTW; I read it last fall). Out of all the dysfunction of IJN planning, what struck me as most amazing was the description of their wargaming sessions. When the Japanese officers who "played" the Americans tried anything other than the most abject, passive defense, the referee intervened and reset things according to what the Japanese casually assumed would be true. One session in particular played out much like the actual battle, with US CVs striking from unknown positions against the unprepared Japanese. The referee's response was simply to dismiss this scenario as impossible and they resumed with their optimistic planning.

For this reason among others, I would say it was historically impossible for the Japanese to take Hawaii without a complete change of culture within the IJN. In game, Japanese players do this automatically, of course, so much more is possible.

[Revthought]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Or, even without the conditions Revthought mentioned it was still possible based on the other factors:
1) Japanes submarine scouting line in place at the time (one sub was not on time and Yorktown TF had just passed by its patrol sector)
2) Better organized search, Floatplane from Tone not delayed on take off, better reporting
3) Earlier detection of the enemy = no swapping of ordonance, 2nd Wave on its way to hit allies already, would probably sunk Yorktown in the first strike.
4) 1st wave would be landed, refueled and probably in the air by the time the Dauntlesses arrived, could even clob some on their way in.
5) 2nd wave would have probably got into Hornet and Enterprise and take them out of action.
6) even if the Dauntlesses striking the KB Carriers, they would have empty decks, ammo stored, fuel lines empty... even with 2 out of action there was still plenty of place to land on remaining planes, rearm and send them to finish US crippled carriers.
7) Japanese Main Battleship force would arrive to flatten out the Midway atoll and support the invasion.

So taking for granted that some of these things would have had a positive result, like Tone's search plane actually finding and correctly identifying the USN carrier force or a submarine picket actually spotting the USN carrier force if it were in place, I think this actually makes my point as to why it is difficult to imagine "opposite Midway."

Because all of these things would have been required for Japan to have chance at success; AND, that is not even taking into account the human factors. For example, identifications of "carriers" and the like has to be believed (remember the Japanese thought the Americans had either one, or possibly two, carriers battle capable) and then acted on immediately.

Then of course there are other factors, like the fact that Midway had been reinforced. Even had everything gone perfectly it is less than clear that the Japanese invasion force was actually adequate to take the reinforced island (SIGNET again).

Probable outcome:

By what metric? If everything goes absolutely perfectly? Maybe. I also think it is a mistake to just assume that the Japanese lose no carriers in return, because that is going to effect the projections you are making for the strategic outcomes.

- 3 US carriers sunk, Midway in Japanese hands, most of the 429 Navy carrier crew members dead or captured (shot down, ditched, landed on Midway and captured), another about 80 Army/Marine crews with the same fate (presuming B-17s, PBYs and B-26s would be evacuated), Allied cruisers/destroyers run away with what ship crews they could pick up from the carriers.

Again, I do not think the historical facts bear out that the actual capture of Midway was the likely result--50/50 at best. In addition, as I said above, you're not accounting for any potential Japanese losses.

- No Guadalcanal campaign, with just 3 carriers left (Wasp, Saratoga, Ranger) - and I presume Ranger would be retained for Atlantic duty anyway - up till November 1943

The ranger is a big maybe, but that's using historical hindsight I think it's fair to say that Torch could have happened without her. Maybe the USN navy figures that out, maybe not.

The Guadalcanal campaign is a smaller maybe. You need to account for the disposition of the RN in this scenario and the American intelligence advantage. What seems certain to me is, again based on intelligence advantages, somewhere else would have been chosen for a counter offensive is the Allies felt the Solomons were untenable.

A "counter attack," no matter how small, was going to happen somewhere. It had to for political reasons as much as military ones.

- 2-3 Jap carriers damaged, but back in action by the end of 1942, Operation SF (Fiji, Noumea, Espiritu Santo, Samoa) delayed for a month or so. Still powerful KB with Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiyo, Junyo, Ryujo, Zuiho, Ryuho and what remained undamaged from the KB after Midway - all combat ready, or finishing repairs...

You are assuming no Japanese losses at Midway. Again, I think this is a mistake. And since we're projecting to mid-1943 we need to modify the utility of those Carriers, weighed against the Allied intelligence advantage, the submarine campaign, and Japanese fuel oil supply issues.

Possible capture of Port Moresby with enlarged perimeter down south to Noumea-Fiji. Allied offensives delayed by year, or shift to some another theatre - with the supply lines to Oz cut off, Australia would hardly become a springboard to New Guinea offensives. And all the supplies would have to go either down south or around the globe to supply another Island invested by the enemy (after Britain).

There is one thing that gets reality right in WiTPAE. Even if Japan accomplished all of this, they still would not be able to cut American convoys off from OZ. Make them longer? Sure. Cut them off? Not a chance.
Even the value of making them longer is reduced to something that is almost negligible, unless we make another huge departure from reality and assume the Japanese use submarines in a sea denial role on a large scale.

Japan certainly did not have the fuel or the desire to try to interdict a great Southern route supply line with the KB or capital ships--and in reality the KB was the only option because the Allies still have carriers.

AND just assuming everything you predict would have happened, did happen. This buys IJ months at most, because of... wait for it... the Soviet Union. [:D] The Allies would have gone from, iffy at best about Soviet involvement, to arguing with Stalin about an accelerated timetable for Soviet entry into the war.

And the Japanese were completely unprepared--couldn't have been prepared and done all of the above--to face the Red Army in mainland Asia.

Finally Hawaii still wouldn't have been invaded, nor successfully taken and held if invaded. That just isn't possible, even if we stretch reality and give the Japanese every historically possible advantage.

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Shattered Sword showed that Tone's scout plane would not have seen the USN carriers even had it been on time, there was no rearming, the IJN carrier decks were busy cycling fighters (the LBA and later piecemeal carrier attacks mattered). Also, it is quite likely that the invasion force was not adequate for the job.

Shattered Sword is really quite a work of analysis. Give it a read.

Shattered Sword correctly pointed out that there wasn't the re-arming going on on the flight deck but admitted that it was happening on the hangar deck (with ordnance all strewn about). Since the bombs had penetrated to that hangar deck, this caused all the mayhem. To me, that's a wash...

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Shattered Sword showed that Tone's scout plane would not have seen the USN carriers even had it been on time, there was no rearming, the IJN carrier decks were busy cycling fighters (the LBA and later piecemeal carrier attacks mattered). Also, it is quite likely that the invasion force was not adequate for the job.

Shattered Sword is really quite a work of analysis. Give it a read.

Shattered Sword correctly pointed out that there wasn't the re-arming going on on the flight deck but admitted that it was happening on the hangar deck (with ordnance all strewn about). Since the bombs had penetrated to that hangar deck, this caused all the mayhem. To me, that's a wash...

Not really, as I recall they concluded that it might have barely gotten started. So aircraft were not clogging the flight deck ready to take off but either way there were armed aircraft in those hanger decks...