The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

7/19/44

Fun House & Peep Show: The fleet leaves Legaspi tonight for Manila. What an immense click-fest involved in this move.

[Canoerebel]

Nighttime Strategic Bombing

I sent this to John today:

John,

At some point, perhaps soon, I'll initiate nighttime strategic bombing.

My hope is that strategic bombing will prove successful, but if it turns out to too successful, we can address it.  That is to say, if prudent and reasonable defenses don't work so that nighttime strategic bombing is too powerful and non-historic, we'll figure out how to address it.  I doubt that'll be the case, but I don't want a nerfed element to unhinge the game.

We've reached an interesting, taut, tense part of the game.  It's a lot of fun. 

Dan

[Canoerebel]

Air War Games

There's a lot going on in the air war right now, as preparations for Peep Show continue.

Japanese fighters downed a bunch of TBFs and SBDs over Ternate today and tangled with some Liberators and Mitchells over Port Moresby. I lost something like 60 of those single-engine bombers, more than I had planned to. But hidden in the number of planes lost is that the Japanese lost considerably more fighters than the Allies did. I'm trying to give John targets that have some teeth, though today I gave him far more than I intended to.

I'm giving a lot of attention to where my best fighter groups are and where they need to be; some fighter squadrons in remote areas are downgrading to lesser aircraft to add good aircraft to the pools; and the pilot pools are being cherry-picked for the best pilots forward.

Aparri airfield goes to level eight tomorrow. I think at eight, aviation support is doubled (if not, then at level 9, which the base should reach in a week or so). If so, Aparri will be able to hold roughly 350 aircraft tomorrow, and about 530 in two or three days, with more support units inbound.

Aparri will be the major fighter base. Manila, a level nine airfield, will handle most of the 4EB.

I'll be stripping most of the aviation support units from Naga and Legaspi now, sending them to Manila. Some of these are destined for Peep Show, as I've got to find enough units to handle any new bases taken during that op. I have plenty of engineer units to build new fields, but not enough aviation support.

[ny59giants]

Night Bombing - If this has been off for most of the war and John hasn't been producing any NFs, then he cannot just decide to start producing them right away. You have been safe in ports for months as he hasn't had the option to hit all your disbanded ships at places like Legaspi. I don't know if I would agree to do so without a significant amount of time to get his production going.

[Bullwinkle58]

Re "historic" night strategic bombing. There isn't any such thing in the game since Japan flies on rice balls and trains pilots on rice balls. His air defenses over the HI will be orders of magnitude better than history. He'll probably carp, but he has no cause to.

[Canoerebel]

Let's see what he says. I told him long ago, from the outset, that the time would come for strategic night bombing of a historical nature. So he's known.

Our house rule was to prevent either side from port bombing or airfield bombing out of concerns the feature was nerfed. Both of us abided by that.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Re "historic" night strategic bombing. There isn't any such thing in the game since Japan flies on rice balls and trains pilots on rice balls. His air defenses over the HI will be orders of magnitude better than history. He'll probably carp, but he has no cause to.

I understand what you are saying...but there are only 21 squadrons eligible to fly night fighters. If he didn't prepare for it, upgraded those squadrons away from the night fighter tree, allocate 300 planes a month production to night fighters plus their engines, he will be savaged at night.

7/44 Japan has the IrvingS and Nick D, and that is it. Not all 21 squadrons are available for NF duty as some convert only over to Dinah NF, etc. Other squadrons get withdrawn.

If he has ignored this aspect of the game, it will take 3 months and 300,000 supplies (plus supply for engines) to prepare for a strategic night bombing campaign with just the basic Japanese night fighters and that assumes no damage done to the night fighter factories.

If Japan hasn't built up pools of night fighters, it would be fairly easy to target those factories early. They can even be inadvertently destroyed by fires or their engines. Nick D takes a funky engine for example.

I don't know any of the answers to what John's understanding of the agreement is/was or what his preparation are for a night campaign. But I think it is an area to tread carefully and thoughtfully.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Re "historic" night strategic bombing. There isn't any such thing in the game since Japan flies on rice balls and trains pilots on rice balls. His air defenses over the HI will be orders of magnitude better than history. He'll probably carp, but he has no cause to.

I understand what you are saying...but there are only 21 squadrons eligible to fly night fighters. If he didn't prepare for it, upgraded those squadrons away from the night fighter tree, allocate 300 planes a month production to night fighters plus their engines, he will be savaged at night.

7/44 Japan has the IrvingS and Nick D, and that is it. Not all 21 squadrons are available for NF duty as some convert only over to Dinah NF, etc. Other squadrons get withdrawn.

If he has ignored this aspect of the game, it will take 3 months and 300,000 supplies (plus supply for engines) to prepare for a strategic night bombing campaign with just the basic Japanese night fighters and that assumes no damage done to the night fighter factories.

If Japan hasn't built up pools of night fighters, it would be fairly easy to target those factories early. They can even be inadvertently destroyed by fires or their engines. Nick D takes a funky engine for example.

I don't know any of the answers to what John's understanding of the agreement is/was or what his preparation are for a night campaign. But I think it is an area to tread carefully and thoughtfully.

I guess my macro answer is "waaaaaah!"

The entire Allied OOB is predicated on events that don't happen in any game, from Midway on. John had the option to max or min his NF R&D. CR gets the B-29s he gets, when he gets them.

Any HR preventing night strategic bombing is the most massive VP nerf possible under the game engine. You know very well it's many tens of thousands of VPs. It's the only way most Allied players ever get close to the auto-vic they must have under the game design to win the game.

From reading both sides, my take-away on John's attitude on night bombing is mostly "I don't get any 4Es, so you shouldn't get to use yours."

Night Manpower bombing is different in every way from night AF or port bombing. It happened. Cities are easy to find. And they burn.

Finally, at this date, CR has very few B-29 units. He has no P-51Ds. John should be able to deal, with day-fighters if need be. If he doesn't like it he should have kept CR out of range longer. He's been out-played, and it's time to pay the piper.

[Lowpe]

I hear you...


Personally, I think night actions are one of the more fascinating challenges in the game for both sides. Sure they can be gamed, but I do think there are counters available other than carping and house rules.

All I am saying is use a little empathy here.

[Canoerebel]

John's Reply: "I have not produced ANY Night fighters knowing we had excluded that.  If you are thinking about it then I need to shift from a one dimensional defense.  Barring that slaughter of B-29s over Singers your 4EB have been pretty close to invulnerable…"

That's on him, because I made it clear in my emails. But he's forgotten, and I'm not willing to see the game derailed because of it. So no night strategic bombing.

My email to him: "When we agreed to no night bombing of airfields or ports, I specifically said I'd do night strategic bombing when the time came.  I mentioned that in multiple emails, making it clear that we would make sure it wasn't nerfed in some way.

"But let's just forget it.  No night bombing of any kind, now or ever."

That's pretty radical and is a huge concession, but we'll just see how it works.

[MakeeLearn]

"Unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America's humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives."

[Lowpe]

I gave up over 60,000 strategic vp almost 95% of that during the day so I am sure you can do it...

Obvert is trying to punish me daily, err, I mean nightly in our slugfest...it is a wonderful cat and mouse whack a mole game within a game. I am sorry you won't get to experience it.

You have been shooting down Nick D's and they are night fighters so he obviously has made some.

[palioboy2]

Having followed this game forever on both sides even I knew you were going to start to strategically bomb at night. He should have known or if not clarified. Now not only can you not night bomb but he never had to dump supply, research or airframes into night fighters and I am sure he upgraded those NF squadrons off their scripted path to top line fighters that you have been facing. It's annoying watching him get another crutch in a game where he is already getting so many.

[Lowpe]

Don't give up hope yet.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Air War Games

Aparri airfield goes to level eight tomorrow. I think at eight, aviation support is doubled (if not, then at level 9, which the base should reach in a week or so). If so, Aparri will be able to hold roughly 350 aircraft tomorrow, and about 530 in two or three days, with more support units inbound.

Yes, at level 8 the Aviation Support is doubled to indicate efficiency of the facilities for repair/maintenance/ammunitioning. But that does not erase the other limits on numbers of squadrons, aircraft or numbers of engines that can be handled at the level 8 base. Exceed those levels and you get a few penalties to coordination (but probably not too bad).

At level nine, all the stacking penalties go away (I think).
At level 10 you get current run movies every night.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Re "historic" night strategic bombing. There isn't any such thing in the game since Japan flies on rice balls and trains pilots on rice balls. His air defenses over the HI will be orders of magnitude better than history. He'll probably carp, but he has no cause to.

I understand what you are saying...but there are only 21 squadrons eligible to fly night fighters. If he didn't prepare for it, upgraded those squadrons away from the night fighter tree, allocate 300 planes a month production to night fighters plus their engines, he will be savaged at night.

7/44 Japan has the IrvingS and Nick D, and that is it. Not all 21 squadrons are available for NF duty as some convert only over to Dinah NF, etc. Other squadrons get withdrawn.

If he has ignored this aspect of the game, it will take 3 months and 300,000 supplies (plus supply for engines) to prepare for a strategic night bombing campaign with just the basic Japanese night fighters and that assumes no damage done to the night fighter factories.

If Japan hasn't built up pools of night fighters, it would be fairly easy to target those factories early. They can even be inadvertently destroyed by fires or their engines. Nick D takes a funky engine for example.

I don't know any of the answers to what John's understanding of the agreement is/was or what his preparation are for a night campaign. But I think it is an area to tread carefully and thoughtfully.

I guess my macro answer is "waaaaaah!"

The entire Allied OOB is predicated on events that don't happen in any game, from Midway on. John had the option to max or min his NF R&D. CR gets the B-29s he gets, when he gets them.

Any HR preventing night strategic bombing is the most massive VP nerf possible under the game engine. You know very well it's many tens of thousands of VPs. It's the only way most Allied players ever get close to the auto-vic they must have under the game design to win the game.

From reading both sides, my take-away on John's attitude on night bombing is mostly "I don't get any 4Es, so you shouldn't get to use yours."

Night Manpower bombing is different in every way from night AF or port bombing. It happened. Cities are easy to find. And they burn.

Finally, at this date, CR has very few B-29 units. He has no P-51Ds. John should be able to deal, with day-fighters if need be. If he doesn't like it he should have kept CR out of range longer. He's been out-played, and it's time to pay the piper.

Also, against MM... he's limited by the same NF squadron limitations and my B-29 pools were REALLY hurting. I ran them into the ground to get the VPs. We're continuing the game until we feel like stopping, but while I was trading way up in terms of VPs (a few hundred vs. a few dozen VPs for him for B-29s lost) I couldn't sustain the numbers if I weren't pushing for an AV within a number of turns measuring in the 10's. If I had to sustain the effort over months, like the Allies did historically... it's just not possible, really. Bombing from historical distances, too... plus

I'm with Bullwinkle. I don't care how "OP" the Allied 4E's are at night relative to historical performance. It roughly balances out vs. all the extra shit Japan can do.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's pretty radical and is a huge concession, but we'll just see how it works.

IMO, this is tantamount to conceding. Sigh. But it's a multi-year investment, and you want the "official" victory screen (I would).

"If we play with me doing what I can under the game engine AND the historical constraints, I've already won, so let's play with a limitation where you might be able to 'win' except that I already actually would have won."

[DW]

While the official victory screen would be nice, I think it's pretty clear to everyone following this AAR that Canoe has outplayed John at every turn.

Sumatra, while ultimately a defeat, gained strategic surprise and it took John months to wipe out an invasion which, had John been playing competently, should have failed within weeks.

Those were months were John needed to be doing other things that he didn't get to do, making Canoe's subsequent invasions more successful.

So now, even playing a scenario that's specifically tailored to give Japan more late war staying power, Canoe has his fingers around John's neck, is squeezing ever tighter and doing so well ahead of the historical timetable.

No... There's no real question about who's winning this game.

[Encircled]

Man, that is a hell of a concession you have made.

Fair play to you, and I agree 100% with Lokasenna.

[Canoerebel]

John's further reply on night bombing: I spent the day on-and-off the Forum getting comments and doing thinking on this topic.  As pointed out by several players, I do have some Night Fighter and Engine production going.  It is just in very limited numbers.  Others were--how shall we say--more aggressive in that Japan couldn’t do it in 1943/1944 why allow it now for the Allies?  I am sure you  have gotten an earful on your side of the Forum as well.  How about this as a proposal:  It is July 21st--how about we open up Night Bombing--in ALL forms--August 15th?  This would give me a month of turns to get any production tweaks and changes I need done, give you a chance to prepare for Night Attacks by your and upon your forces, and allow for this aspect of the game to be jointly explored by both of us.

Seems fair.  What do you think?

The highlighted portion is just a weird misconstruction of what we agreed to. Both sides mutually agreed to refrain from night bombing of ports or airfields. John didn't give up anything I didn't give up, and it was his choice in the first place, though I put the option out there for discussion. Strategic bombing was a separate matter that I also addressed, as set for previously.

My reply to John:Regarding night bombing, we are talking about two different things.

We mutually agreed to forego night-bombing of airfields and ports due to forum concerns that it might be nerfed.  This came about during the Sumatra campaign, when you employed the tactic a few times on a small scale.  I approached you and said, "If you do it, I'll do it; if you don't do it, I won't do it."  You chose the latter, and I explained that there would come a day when the Allies would draw near enough to Japan to engage in strategic night bombing, but that we'd keep it with the bounds of historical capabilities and wouldn't abuse it, just in case it too was nerfed.

Despite that "understanding," I needed to give you a heads-up that I would be employing it at some point, perhaps soon.  Hence my email yesterday. 

I've discussed this in my AAR many times over the years, so I think my regular readers were familiar with the agreement.  Their input was mostly to discourage me from yielding on this point, except I think for NYGiants.

The prohibition of port and airfield bombing has been mutually beneficial, and will pay off for you more as my bombers draw within range of your biggest ports. 

Just to make clear, we have a one-month moratorium (per your email) on strategic bombing at night.  I agree.  I am not exactly sure when I'll initiate the bombing, but if it seems nerfed - if you have no fair defenses and it seems whacked - then we can address it as things develop.

The moratorium on other kinds of night bombing (ports, airfields) remains in effect.  If you prefer to discuss that, I'm glad to.  But I'm also glad to continue as is.  I don't know if night bombing is nerfed or not, but we've lived without it for a long time, and I'm glad to continue that way.