TopEverest vs Admiral Kamikaze - the rematch

[topeverest]

1 more turn of blizzard

Actions
1. German pincers north and south of Moscow take ground in heavy action. Russian counterattacks fail. 1 remaining Moscow hex is evacuated to prevent the loss of experienced troops.
2. German infantry slowly pushes Russian defenders west of the Don and north of Stalingrad back 1 hex across a 7 he front
3. Russia passes milestone - half of backfill units are now on map and headed to their armies

[topeverest]

I think this view helps really to understand what Germany is up to and how Russia is responding

[topeverest]

So I've developed more specifics how I will execute getting the forces ready for the summer attacking season.

1. Finish the unit builds
2. Use 10 reserve armies to train units until mud season
3. Begin guard infantry corps building as soon as backfill units are built
4. Determine which armies will get the formations
5. swap out armies in mud season
6. move forces to step off zones

Anyway such are the plans of mice and men.

[M60A3TTS]

A more experienced Soviet player would already have a major counteroffensive underway that would quickly have put an end to German operations.

From looking at the various screenshots, here are things you could do better on.

1. Post #368. Look at the Leningrad Front. Why are you two deep in a place where the Finns are sitting idle? And the Northwest Front looks worse. You’re four deep in a couple places where nothing is happening. What are you defending against?

2. You have cavalry corps sitting on the front line in places doing nothing, I assume. You have tank corps in places doing nothing. There is a common theme here. You have offensive assets such as cavalry and tank corps sitting on their duffs and not seizing the strategic initiative from your opponent.

3. It isn't clear that you’re properly organizing these mobile assets. Here is an example of my Steppe Front in mid-late 1943:

Steppe Front

1st Tank Army GM M. Katukov
---14th Tank Corps
---21st Tank Corps
---22nd Tank Corps
4th Tank Army GM S Bogdanov
---12th Guards Tank Corps
---16th Tank Corps
---20th Tank Corps
58th (Cavalry) Army GM A Beloborodov
---12th Guards Cavalry Corps
---15th Guards Cavalry Corps
---16th Guards Cavalry Corps
---2nd Cavalry Corps
3rd Shock Army GM P Rybalko
---6th Guards Cavalry Corps
---13th Guards Cavalry Corps
---1st Guards Tank Corps
---6th Guards Tank Corps
---7th Guards Tank Corps
4th Shock Army GP L Bobkin
---3rd Guards Cavalry Corps
---7th Guards Cavalry Corps
---3rd Guards Tank Corps
---10th Guards Tank Corps
---11th Guards Tank Corps


Ask yourself this: If you are the Axis, and you see a front like this concentrating on an area of the map, how are you going to react? The answer is pretty obvious, the German offensives are pretty much at an end and it’s time to try and hold onto what you have.

If you had anything like this and sent it through the Italian Front in the Voronezh area perhaps backed by a dozen guards rifle corps, attacking near Rostov would cease being a part of your opponent's game plan.

[topeverest]

As cited below, I really thought I would get the hex back - but fate wasn't kind. I assume the main attack had poor command roles.

In any event, I still like those enemy forces operating around Moscow that somewhere else.

[topeverest]

I appreciate the effort you (and others) continue to make to help me understand this game better.

This is very good feedback. Following posts describe my updated plans.

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

A more experienced Soviet player would already have a major counteroffensive underway that would quickly have put an end to German operations.

From looking at the various screenshots, here are things you could do better on.

1. Post #368. Look at the Leningrad Front. Why are you two deep in a place where the Finns are sitting idle? And the Northwest Front looks worse. You’re four deep in a couple places where nothing is happening. What are you defending against?

2. You have cavalry corps sitting on the front line in places doing nothing, I assume. You have tank corps in places doing nothing. There is a common theme here. You have offensive assets such as cavalry and tank corps sitting on their duffs and not seizing the strategic initiative from your opponent.

3. It isn't clear that you’re properly organizing these mobile assets. Here is an example of my Steppe Front in mid-late 1943:

Steppe Front

1st Tank Army GM M. Katukov
---14th Tank Corps
---21st Tank Corps
---22nd Tank Corps
4th Tank Army GM S Bogdanov
---12th Guards Tank Corps
---16th Tank Corps
---20th Tank Corps
58th (Cavalry) Army GM A Beloborodov
---12th Guards Cavalry Corps
---15th Guards Cavalry Corps
---16th Guards Cavalry Corps
---2nd Cavalry Corps
3rd Shock Army GM P Rybalko
---6th Guards Cavalry Corps
---13th Guards Cavalry Corps
---1st Guards Tank Corps
---6th Guards Tank Corps
---7th Guards Tank Corps
4th Shock Army GP L Bobkin
---3rd Guards Cavalry Corps
---7th Guards Cavalry Corps
---3rd Guards Tank Corps
---10th Guards Tank Corps
---11th Guards Tank Corps


Ask yourself this: If you are the Axis, and you see a front like this concentrating on an area of the map, how are you going to react? The answer is pretty obvious, the German offensives are pretty much at an end and it’s time to try and hold onto what you have.

If you had anything like this and sent it through the Italian Front in the Voronezh area perhaps backed by a dozen guards rifle corps, attacking near Rostov would cease being a part of your opponent's game plan.

[topeverest]

Last Turn of Blizzard

1 - German operations grind to a halt except for an SS Mech corps attack across the Don below Stalingrad. The enemy is creating yet another strategic salient and just daring me to launch a pincer - which I cannot yet do.
2 - update on air war. Germany has basically withdrawn from the air war except in intercept and interdiction. He must have a 300 setting on interdiction, because every time we meet, he has 100+ fighters and I lose that engagement badly. Overall and despite that losses are manageable, and I have been using my air forces on ground attack and partisan supply. I am delivering 3-5K ground losses per turn by air units. I concentrate on units in the open and armor.
3. I disbanded 4 air armies this turn, I cannot ever see needing them, and they are a truck drag. As I already am slightly below 100% on trucks and facing a corps building campaign, I need to conserve trucks
4. I abandoned the remainder of the unit backfill building program I began and moved forward with the army reorganization and guard corps building portion of the program. Units built were 41 INF brigades 12 INF div, and 3 mech brigades. All unit building has ended until the armies are set for the summer offensive.
5. Trying to understand trucks consumption better in that I have begun testing how trucks are consumed in supply operations
6. recently began tracking Axis and Soviet strengths, and the news isn't good if I don't know if it is normal Axis strength is 70.5% of Soviet with AFV 60% of Soviet and Guns 40% of soviet airpower 38% of soviet) I will continue to track
7. A note on production - The last of the factories I moved last summer are at full production. Soviets have material pools for manpower and armaments but not HI or Resources.

[topeverest]

This one doesn't make sense to me in that he is at the end of a very tenuous supply line and extending a strategic salient. Perhaps I am missing something, but I wouldn't be trying to extend the salient - but clean out the river. But hey, that's why we play.

[topeverest]

Thanks to the feedback, I now have an idea how to use the cavalry corps that currently are dispersed across the fields.

20 cav corps (5 guard)
4 cav divisions (0 guard)

New org structure
1 inf army guard (4 corps)
4 inf army non guard (4 corps per) 1 cav division per army

Reorganize guard units together as they form

-------------------------------

37 armor corps (5 guard)
Zero divisions

New org structure
5 shock armies (5 corps per ---1 army is guard)
3 tank armies (4 corps each ----- 1 point over in CP)

------------------------------

31 infantry corps (13 guards)
99 Guard infantry divisions (current total)
49 more guard corps for a total of 80 with 62 guard

20 infantry armies with 15 guard

Remaining after conversions
282 infantry divisions and 91 infantry brigades

Consumes 37 armies

TOTAL ARMY CONSUMPTION
=37+20+8+5 = 70 --------------- 75 have been built.

[topeverest]

I will post delivery timing for these items as soon as I complete the AP math. It will be important to launch and attack this summer so I need to do it smartly.

[topeverest]

SO the net effect of the ups and downs I plan are as follows

1. I have extra AP's to make necessary org changes and build the inf Guard corps
2. My trucks totals will slide slightly, which is troubling.

[M60A3TTS]

Your force ratios in men, arty, tanks and planes all look good. You can work just with what you have now on the map, although artillery divs and heavy rocket brigades are quite useful. You do need sappers or other support units in these corps that you form, and your AP calculations need to take that into account. Keep in mind on T94 the front CPs rise to 90, so you can incorporate additional forces into them.

Hopefully you're building all corps with two divs and one brigade. When forming corps, it's the brigades you run out of first, which is why putting those new builds into those reserve armies may have been the wrong thing to do. Saving them for the coming rifle corps may have been the better move, depending on how many of each type you have.

With 37 tank corps, your 5 guards is really low. Look at your non-guards tank corps win loss rate and see who has the most wins. Then figure out where they can get victories on the battlefield, even if it is just one corps with a bunch of infantry helping. That is the farming you want to do to get them to guards and gain the +10 morale bonus that translates to higher CVs. If you had done this from the start, you would probably already have two to three times the number of guards tank corps. Same goes for cavalry.

[M60A3TTS]

This is the sort of thing to shoot for by the Summer of '43

[STEF78]

Looking at your strategic map, 3 thoughts:
- I would have set the new armies closer from the front in order to lure german recon and eventually close a hole
- german player shouldn't be anymore on the offensive on several awxs early 1943. It's a wrong strategy
- South of Voronejh you can find an area with Italaian/hungarian/Romanian units. I would attack there.

[topeverest]

You are correct, I made no plan to develop guard units. Seems rather stupid at this point, but at least after studying the rules, I know which units are close and will work to making more guard units

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

Your force ratios in men, arty, tanks and planes all look good. You can work just with what you have now on the map, although artillery divs and heavy rocket brigades are quite useful. You do need sappers or other support units in these corps that you form, and your AP calculations need to take that into account. Keep in mind on T94 the front CPs rise to 90, so you can incorporate additional forces into them.

Hopefully you're building all corps with two divs and one brigade. When forming corps, it's the brigades you run out of first, which is why putting those new builds into those reserve armies may have been the wrong thing to do. Saving them for the coming rifle corps may have been the better move, depending on how many of each type you have.

With 37 tank corps, your 5 guards is really low. Look at your non-guards tank corps win loss rate and see who has the most wins. Then figure out where they can get victories on the battlefield, even if it is just one corps with a bunch of infantry helping. That is the farming you want to do to get them to guards and gain the +10 morale bonus that translates to higher CVs. If you had done this from the start, you would probably already have two to three times the number of guards tank corps. Same goes for cavalry.

[topeverest]

Thanks for the ideas

I need to begin positioning troops on my chosen attack zones as it will take time - or at least narrow it down.

I am pondering the following attack strategies
1. the Italian MLR. It has the benefit of a rail line to exploit
2. the Luftwaffe MLR. That has the opportunity to pocket units further east and north of Stalingrad
3. the drive against Finland from Cherepovets down the rail line towards Leningrad
4. the drive due west to rostov

ORIGINAL: STEF78

Looking at your strategic map, 3 thoughts:
- I would have set the new armies closer from the front in order to lure german recon and eventually close a hole
- german player shouldn't be anymore on the offensive on several awxs early 1943. It's a wrong strategy
- South of Voronejh you can find an area with Italaian/hungarian/Romanian units. I would attack there.

[topeverest]

3 turns to mud season

----------

Here is a view of potential Summer attack plans.

I need to land on one soon. For now I am studying them.

[topeverest]

2 more turns then mud

1. Germany continues push to Krasnodar and Stalingrad. Otherwise minor fighting
2. Soviets use 157 AP's to build 14 guard infantry corps
3. Cavalry is mostly reorganized into armies in the rear
4. Soviets pull 4th shock army (5 armor corps) from Rostov to aid in Stalingrad defense
5. Soviet air armies continue robust campaign of ground attack with weekly turn to inflict 5K or more German casualties. Units in the open and low fort and airbase and HQ and rail units commonly targeted

[topeverest]

here is my thought summary of my initial study...

Regarding the summer offensive, there are a number of hurdles I have identified that could limit the level of success
First, I am concerned that trucks will be slightly negative at the time of the assault. I have been closely monitoring truck consumption and acquisition, but the levels have been slightly below 100% on a turn over turn basis. Best guess on my part is the large number of upgrades occurring. Also, I still have quite a few guard corps to make, so the prospect of getting ahead on trucks is dim if I build all the corps I have scheduled. The likely solution (if this problem materializes) is HQ buildup and a shorter duration campaign designed around a more compact battlefield.
Second, I need to consider the type of attack I should make. The axis MLR has developed a number of salient and weak points, opening up the potential opportunity to do more than push back the enemy MLR. The big opportunity is to pierce the enemy’s line and attempt to destroy some units in a Stalingrad style offensive that also reclaims material real estate. But I really need to think piercing the enemy MLR through, even if it is the obvious choice.
Third, I should not think too big in this first strategic offensive of the war. I am inexperienced; German formations are strong; the enemy will be able to quickly react to any puncture of its lines; and the enemy certainly could determine my intentions long before I can execute the attack in late June. So I need to plan well. Looking into the 4 options I have pre-screened, (Leningrad – Italian puncture to Kharkov – Stalingrad pincer – and Rostov trap) the merits of each potential assault are not equal.
1. Cherepovets to Leningrad. This is a surprise effort against military logic to pulse into Leningrad and then attempt to knock Finland out of the war early. Finland is stretched very thin, and it would not take a large force to transition to the offensive. The opportunity is substantial, and at least initially, the enemy would be entirely unprepared. This effort both has a high ‘surprise’ quotient and the best chance of a solid piercing of the enemy lines leading to a wave attack towards Leningrad. On the downside, the enemy probably would not have to retreat from most of his holdings in the south
2. Drive on Kharkov through the Italians. This is an effort to entirely bypass the Stalingrad Krasnodar salient and compel the enemy to withdraw from exposed positions further east and south by breaking through the MLR. This plan also benefits from the rail lines across the Don and into the German held interior. Because of the bending geography of the enemy lines, there is a substantial opportunity mushroom out, capture a number of enemy units, and cause general mayhem. That said, it is not clear that the enemy would be compelled to retire from his holdings further east and south. Furthermore, with the known concentrations of German armor around Moscow, Orel and Stalingrad - Rostov, Germany will be quickly able to quell any puncture. The risks associated with this plan are material and probably discount it altogether
3. Rostov trap. This is an attractive, short jump, piercing attack designed to isolate and entire army group – and force a desperate extrication battle. This plan has the advantage of being requiring the fewest number of hexes to be taken, but it also is the most obvious to the enemy. The enemy would respond with all its might to open up an alley to extricate (and potentially replace) their forces. This is a ‘dense pack’ strategy and it relies on cutting off Rostov on the first turn of the attack
4. Stalingrad pincer. This is a highly attractive pincer of part or all of the Stalingrad salient with the desired effect to pocket a large number of Axis units and force a general retreat. In this area, the enemy is particularly exposed in several salient, any of which would be an ideal attack target. Sub target include the SS corps pushing for Stalingrad itself and the Luftwaffe corner northwest of Stalingrad about 100 miles where the enemy unhinges from its Don defensive perimeter. The main thought of this attack is to crack the salient and capture some units so that the enemy is forced to withdraw out of the Stalingrad area
If we consider the expected attacking force organizationally:
1. 25 cavalry corps (5 guard)
2. 50 armored corps (7 guard)
3. 100 infantry corps (50 guard)
That is about 55 theoretical hexes attack capable or 43 armies maximum push. Somehow I doubt the attack will be that big, but it is interesting to see the upper bound. If the pinko commies want to bust through and exploit, organization of the attack is going to be important.

Must think further on that...

[topeverest]

Here is the view of the active battlefield. I am encouraged at the opportunities for the summer Russian offensive.