Axis PBEM AAR (MIRROR)

[jjdenver]

ORIGINAL: brian brian
Oil investing is playing consevatively.

Where were the Belgian INF, out of curiosity? Some Allied players, if pre-positioned correctly and late in a turn particularly ( also more likely without Rotterdam in Axis hands), would take delight in the Fallschirmjäegers dropping on an undefended Brussels as that gives them the opportunity to decline the notional and leave the PARA alone in the hex, as without an actual combat taking place, the adjacent German units can not advance in. And then the cream of the French Army descends on the lonely Paratroopers.

Search early, and search often. The most likely result of all attempts at naval combat is - No Combat.

Italy has searched and searched but to no avail. They did find once or twice in MJ in W Med but still no finds by subs going into JA 40.

Belgium put 2 INF in Brussels. CW/FR could have tried that plan, but I think in this case the bad weather would have worked to help the Germans. Antwerp was occupied and so was the forest hex SE of Brussels. So it'd have been a 2 hex attack by Brits+Belgians at about (23/8=+6, +1 HQ, +1 HQ commit, -2 HQ commit, -2 city/stack, -4 snow) +1 I think assuming GE could get a combo of arty/LND to double the para on defense which they probably could have since they had a 4-2 ART next to the city. A chance to kill the PARA but if turn continued and weather turned with flipped Brits in front of Brussels the Germans might have had a turnabout on the Brits.

[brian brian]

Yes it all depends on where the ART (might flip taking Antwerp, esp. on a 2 hex winter attack) ends up, who has how much air left, (RAF can Ground Strike in support of a French attack, etc.), even who is moving first and who might get a fresh weather roll for a counterattack and who might have the fated-to-disappear-anyway Belgian INF available.

Starting out with strategic WWII games with Third Reich, I used to think of PARAs as a strategic asset for game changing coup-de-mains behind enemy lines. This included playing World in Flames. But as the powers of PARAs have declined slightly in the game, it is harder to remember their handy tactical uses. Still, they are like the big Fleet CV of land units, in that the opposing player can focus on them, perhaps inordinately.

[Grotius]

I'm enjoying this AAR a lot. Thanks for posting it!

[jjdenver]

MJ 40 Chinese theatre:

MJ turn is usually slow going in south China due to bad weather in N Monsoon, and this MJ was no different (only 10% chance of fine weather in N Monsoon). JP got 4 impulses of bad weather there. However JP got 4 impulses of good weather in N Temperate and the objective for MJ 40 was to assault Chengchow (held by a 4-1 GAR) and then begin to march on Si-An. JP had very limited forces to face the Chicom so no assault could be attempted until reinforcements were landed from JP and marched west which was planned for JA 40.

The assault on Chengchow went well and the city fell without loss. Little happened in S China due to weather. The only excitement was Yamamoto launching a an assault on Chiang but a bad roll resulted in attacker flipping and neither side taking any loss. There was also a Natchi CAVDIV that snuck into Changsha and had to be assaulted out by Umezu (successfully). Luckily there was no USE hit for re-taking the city.

Most JP units in S China were not moved so that they wouldn't flip or enter Chinese ZOC. This would have prevented them from counting as garrison against partisans appearing. So hold fast was the word in S China.

MJ felt like a bit of a wasted turn in China but that's to be expected with most JP forces in the south and N Monsoon bad weather. But with 2 INF, GAR, ART arriving next turn and earmarked for N China, the pace should pick up in JA 40.

Here's a shot of EOT in China.

[jjdenver]

MJ 40 Europe

As this turn began GE high command felt very disheartened by the huge force defending France. There were doubts about whether France could be taken at all before winter of 40 began. Here's a shot of the really extraordinary force defending France.



7 points were noted by German high command:
1) French air force was not notably stronger than in any other game.
2) Strasbourg (Eastmost hex of Maginot) had only 1 unit - the only weak spot in the defense of France. Wermacht was positioned during MA 40 to be able to get 8 corps into an attack on Strasburg in case this opportunity was available in MJ 40.
3) With 3 RAF FTR avail it would be best to (mostly) avoid engaging the RAF and focus the Luftwaffe against the French. To allow some disruption of the Brits the German 4-2 ART was positioned in Antwerp. Unfortunately the 3-3 ART was still marching across Germany to reach the French front. GE had 3 FTR avail and a 4th IT FTR could be based in France later in MJ turn if needed. This might leave the Regia Marina open to port attacks but the focus this turn had to be France.
4) The allied line might be best attacked at the junction between French forces and the BEF.
5) The best hope for MJ 40 was to plan for a long turn. Attacks should be efficient, fairly conservative to avoid flips. Luftwaffe and HQ flips should be carefully measured out so that if the Germans get 3+ clear weather impulses they are able to take advantage of the good weather and aren't out of planes, HQ's, and unflipped units to continue the offensive.
6) Clearly an o-chit was needed on the first or 2nd impulse to create some penetrations of the very stout allied defensive line. Germany starts with 2 and this was definitely the place to use 1 of them.
7) The IT older LND3's with ATR capability had not been scrapped and in fact a 6 range LND3 with ATR capability was already deployed in Italy supporting operations in Sardinia. This could be based in France and allow 2 or more drops of the Fallschirmjager corp during summer turns. The PARA not only adds 4 factors (not halved by river, fort to attacks but also provides an extra +1 to the die roll so this unit will be important to use well.

So the plan for MJ would be to play the long game and set up for a continued attack in JA 40 vs a weakened France. If the BEF could be flipped and isolate in Belgium that would be a bonus, and in any case the Wermacht would look for opportunities to kill BEF forces before they could be evacuated.

But all this aside, there was a lot of uncertainty about whether the attack on France could succeed at all before winter conditions arrived. Gort, Wavell, Pretelat, Billotte, Georges....5 allied HQ's awaited commanding a large combied allied army.

[brian brian]

The French line could be stronger yet if they had built the MECH instead of the 3rd HQ-I and put their tanks right in the front line stacked with the AT assets. But it looks like the French put the Phony War time to good use, sensibly building land units.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

If France has only one unit in Strasburg I like to use ENG and break line there with massive ground support.

[jjdenver]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

The French line could be stronger yet if they had built the MECH instead of the 3rd HQ-I and put their tanks right in the front line stacked with the AT assets. But it looks like the French put the Phony War time to good use, sensibly building land units.

Yes, I think France wanted to avoid having the ARM flipped in the initial ground strikes. I agree about the MECH, it's usually my first build with France.

[jjdenver]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer
If France has only one unit in Strasburg I like to use ENG and break line there with massive ground support.

Foreshadowing. [:'(]

This is exactly the attack that Germany will attempt in the first impulse of MJ 40.[:D]

[Mayhemizer_slith]

ORIGINAL: jjdenver

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer
If France has only one unit in Strasburg I like to use ENG and break line there with massive ground support.

Foreshadowing. [:'(]

This is exactly the attack that Germany will attempt in the first impulse of MJ 40.[:D]

Good luck, roll high [:)]

[jjdenver]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

ORIGINAL: jjdenver

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer
If France has only one unit in Strasburg I like to use ENG and break line there with massive ground support.

Foreshadowing. [:'(]
This is exactly the attack that Germany will attempt in the first impulse of MJ 40.[:D]

Good luck, roll high [:)]

Thanks. This game is already in SO 40 so MJ has come and gone. I'm posting behind the game progress. The MJ turn happened a week or two ago.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i1:
Italy took a combined and threw out subs into fairly unprotected CSV & CVB sz's. Again IT rolls were not able to locate allied convoy lines - something that would continue through JA 40 as well. IT and GE also flew a FTR2 and 2 NAV into W Med but failed to find cp's & the CV's in 3 box as well.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i1:
GE launched a row of 3 GS against the BEF and French line west of Brussels.
The 4-2 ART striking farthest north was doubled by an o-chit on Guderian.

Luck didn't go the way of the Germans as the only units flipped were:
CW MIL on N Sea coast
CW 2-4 AT W of Brussels
FR 5-4 INF SW of Brussels

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i1:
GE decided to use a land o-chit on Guderian and to launch 2 attacks:
#1 on the east-most hex of Maginot using the ENG to allow the powerful 9-4 GE corp to attack across the fort line.
#2 a blitz on the French held hex SW of Brussels to begin to drive a wedge between France and the BEF.

GE could have tried for more but the philosophy was to conduct only high odds efficient attacks in the hope of a long MJ 40 turn. These initial attacks if successful could give the Wermacht leverage for the next impulse against the Maginot and unhinge the combined allied defensive line in Belgium. Because of the 2 flipped BEF units it would put the BEF in a difficult position. If they fall back, they have to leave the 2 flipped units to be destroyed. If they stay forward they begin to form an exposed northern salient and can't help the French to form a strong line 1 hex back. There was unfortunately no chance of a breakthrough since the allied line was 2 hexes deep and powerful.

Guderian was positioned in Cologne so that he could be out of the way of operations next impulse but also be close enough to use his doubled re-org to unflip as many units as possible if any flipped during the 2 attacks.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i1:
The attacks were both successful and Guderian unflipped a couple of planes since no attacking units were flipped.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i3:
Here's a peek at the position in the med at the start of MJ i3. The Italians have advanced to Algiers but don't have supply to assault because the Regia Aeronautica and Luftwaffe are unable to find in W Med to clear out the British CV's so that the IT TRS can safely sail. Sardinia is cleared of allies and an assault will be prepared on Corsica. the French-Italian border is stagnant but some French forces are tied down there at least.

The GE/IT naval air contingent in W Med finally finds the CV task force and a fierce air battle ensuses. The IT Gabbiano is aborted back to Genoa but the cvp wing based on HMS Courageous is destroyed. Good shooting by RN AA gunners wards off any damage from Axis naval bombers. A 2nd round of searches fails to find.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i3:
After the o-chit here is the position at the beginning of Axis i3 on the west front.

The BEF has used Gort positioned behind Lille to reorg both flipped CW units in Belgium (MIL + 2-4 AT).

Continuing the approach of launching relatively high odds attacks with HQ's nearby to re-org in case of flips, the Wermacht plans 2 attacks:
- an assault on Metz preceded by ground strikes from 2 air wings and
- an assault on the BEF preceded by a smaller Luftwaffe bombardment.

French and British planes rise to intercept the bombers. The Wermacht Me-109 is shot down by spitfires but over Metz the best FR FTR, the MS-406 goes down in flames. Ground strikes on the British are wildly successful (both flipped) but not as successful over Metz where 1 of the 2 defending units is flipped.

An attack is also launched on Corsica and 2 in China: Changsha and Chengchow.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i3:
Led by paradropping Fallschirmjagers, the attack on Metz succeeds with the only disorganized GE unit being von Leeb who was committed to the assault on the city.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i3:
The attack on the BEF in Belgium succeeds without losses and no flips.

[jjdenver]

40 MJ i3:
The attack on Corsica including Italian troops debarked into Olbia by an Italian transport and supported by the guns of the Regia Marina sailing in the It coast seazone destroys the French division defending the straits and a powerful army of Italians and Germans surge across onto the island of Napoleon's birth.